Pound Sterling Strength: Sterling Making Impressive Gains Against the Euro

Was the Pound’s Sell-Off “Overdone”?

Pound Sterling forecast: Sterling has continued where it left off last week, with further gains against all the major currencies. The Pound had its strongest week of the year, making impressive gains against the Euro in particular.

GBP/EUR rates reached a two year high

GBP/EUR rates hit a fresh two year high, moving through 1.17, providing those clients holding the Pound with some much needed respite after months of stagnation.

The catalyst for this upturn was largely down to a reduced chance of a no-deal Brexit and a delay to the planned exit date of March 29th. With the current deadline fast approaching, action and not words is certainly required.

I will remain cautiously optimistic at this point, due to the fact this is not the first time we have heard that progress is being made. However, despite the previous false dawn, it does finally seem as though UK Prime Minister is making headway in her talks with the EU regarding a softening of their current stance on the Irish backstop. This is key to persuading MPs to vote in favour of her Brexit deal, when the next “meaningful” vote takes place on March 12th.

The Euro did find some support above 1.17 but only managed minimal gains and with the current GBP/EUR levels trading just under this threshold, any further progress this week is likely to drive Sterling value back up.

Those selling Euros will be disappointed at last week’s developments but may in time still look back on the current levels as offering fair value, especially when they consider the history on the GBP/EUR pair.

Any major realignment for the single currency is likely to dependent on a no-deal Brexit and with this scenario now looking less likely, I do not anticipate a move back towards the post-referendum highs.

As such, Euro sellers may wish to consider their positions ahead of what could be a period of relative downturn, assuming that Brexit talks do finally yield a positive outcome.

For up-to-date news on what is impacting GBP/EUR rates, or to discuss anything you have read in today’s Pound to Euro forecast, please feel free to complete the form below to get in touch. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your questions.


GBP/EUR Forecast for Q1 2019

Was the Pound’s Sell-Off “Overdone”?

GBP/EUR Forecast: For clients that are planning GBP/EUR currency transfers throughout 2019, Q1 is going to have a major influence on the exchange rate for the remainder of the year. The ongoing Brexit negotiations are coming to an end and MPs are preparing to debate Theresa May’s Brexit deal the first week they return. Following the debate MPs will have the meaningful vote which is crucial for the Prime Minister and ultimately the strength of the pound.

If Conservative MPs vote in favour of Theresa May’s plan, quite simply I expect GBP/EUR exchange rates to rally, and by the end of Q1 I expect GBP/EUR to be trading in the higher teens (1.16/1.18). The reason I believe GBP/EUR will rally significantly is the uncertainty will be removed meaning businesses do not have to worry about not being able to trade within the EU and I also expect the Bank of England to up growth forecasts and hint towards hiking interest rates towards the back end of the 2019 summer.

However if MPs vote Theresa May’s Brexit plan down, depending on how many votes she loses by I believe will dictate what happens next. If she loses by a handful of votes, I expect she will contact certain MPs directly and try to persuade them to change their minds and another meaningful vote will follow shortly after. Furthermore, if she loses by a significant amount I personally don’t believe she will take the UK out of the EU with a no deal Brexit, therefore I expect her resignation or Jeremy Corbyn will file a motion of no confidence against the Government. Either way both scenarios will cause further uncertainty and therefore I expect the pound to make further losses.

If Theresa May resigns then a leadership contest will follow and I find it difficult to see who will take over as the Conservative Party are so torn between leaving with no deal and a peoples’ vote. In addition if Jeremy Corbyn files a motion of confidence, I’m not convinced the DUP will continue to support the Prime Minister. Both scenarios I expect will push GBP/EUR rates towards 1.05.

If you are buying euros with pounds or selling euros to buy sterling, I would recommend getting in touch to discuss your options. We have contracts available such as limit orders and stop losses which help clients maximise their returns whilst using safety nets so there are no surprises when they eventually secure their currency. For more information feel free to feel the form below and I will give you a call to discuss your own specific requirements.


Pound to Euro Forecast: How will GBP/EUR perform in January?

The Pound Continues to Struggle as Coronavirus Takes Hold

In this pound to Euro forecast we look ahead at the events that could influence GBP/EUR rates in January. What can we expect in January and will GBP/EUR rates drop further?

January is looking to be a crucial month for Brexit which is the main driver of the pound to Euro rate. The pound has been weaker in recent weeks as investors lack of understanding of the Brexit is reflected in the price of the pound. The Euro has been finding some favour too, further exacerbating the trend on the pair.

The key date for January will be the week commencing 14th January where we have the next scheduled Parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. This might still be postponed and there are conflicting reports over just what we might expect from this episode.

Ultimately, we might still be looking at a no-deal scenario which would see the pound weaken, many forecasters had previously placed GBP/EUR at closer to parity should we see this turn of events.

What might be more likely is that we see either a General Election or a second EU Referendum as the number of options available diminishes and we are left with these outcomes. I believe either of these outcomes would see the pound much lower as investors are forced to consider the potentially negative elements.

There is now a growing sense that the pound will only struggle further in the coming weeks as even if Theresa May’s Brexit deal is passed, there will then be a whole new set of questions over just how Brexit will pass.

Pound to Euro Forecast: How will the Euro perform?

The Euro is stronger entering 2019 as investors find comfort from the resolution over the Italian budget standoff and also warm to the idea of the ECB, European Central Bank, making further progress with their economic plans.

For clients with a GBP/EUR currency exchange in 2019, now could be a very good time to review your position. The expectation is for increased uncertainty over Brexit but any signs the political or economic situations in the Eurozone are not going to plan, would weigh on the Euro.

I expect to encounter a range of 1.07-1.15 in the month, taking account of the possibility of all eventualities.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to welcoming any questions or comments. If you would like to discuss anything in my pound to Euro forecast please use the form below to send me a message:


Will the Pound to Euro rate go up or down?

Will the pound or Euro go up or down in the coming weeks or months is a very valid question as there are so many upcoming events to move the rates. I would predict a range of 1.13-1.20 in the coming weeks as we get answers to some very important questions over Brexit and European affairs. If there is one thing the currency markets are not fond of it is political uncertainty. Markets can just about digest economic uncertainty as investors are used to assessing economic data on a daily basis. However political events, particularly the unique nature of current affairs make for some much more interesting outcomes for the pound to euro exchange rate.

The pound to euro rate could fall and easily retest the lower levels of 1.1298 seen in 2017 as well as the 1.1068 seen back in October. These big falls in sterling were all due to worry over the Brexit and as such these levels could easily be revisited. The actual triggering of Article 50 could be anytime in the next month, if you have a transfer to consider with pounds or euros making a decision or some plans before this happens seems very sensible to me. For my clients I am currently drawing up strategies to help cope with such volatility for the pound, if you would like information on a strategy to suit you please email me Jonathan Watson at [email protected].

What kind of deal will the UK actually get with the EU? Will this have a large detrimental effect on the UK economy? Will Theresa May’s determination to put immigration and sovereignty above economic certainty harm the UK? These are just some of the questions looming which could well lead to the pound coming under some serious selling pressures again in the not so distant future.

Euro buyers with pounds need not jump out of the window quite yet. Whilst sterling may well fall the recent trend has been more positive for sterling as investors finally get some clarity over the Brexit. Of course this is just one step on a long journey but it might be that markets do not view Brexit so badly now? Only time will tell, personally this is not a risk I would be wholly advocating. Considering GBPEUR is currently at some of the best deals in 2017 some 4% higher than the lows, now is clearly not a bad time to be considering your Euro purchase.

Further good news for Euro buyers is the political uncertainty emanating from events in the Eurozone. 20th February sees the Eurogroup meeting to discuss the problems of Greek debt. Then 15th March sees Dutch Elections which could well weigh on the Euro. Moving into April on the 23rd we have the French elections. With plenty of fresh headlines around such events likely to weigh on the Euro we could see some better opportunities for Euro buyers. I would not rule out rates over 1.20, we are not far from that now. If you wish to buy Euros at 1.20 please email me on [email protected] and I can monitor developments for you.

It might be that the pound to Euro rate rises on Greek fears in the next week before dipping once Article 50 is triggered and then rising again around the Dutch election. I would honestly be predicting swings of up to 2-3 cents on certain days as markets get wrong-footed and we see surprises trigger volatility on the markets.

Whilst it is impossible to accurately predict the outcome of the events above it is possible to make plans and preparations. As part of my personal strategies for personal clients and businesses who need to conduct pound to euro exchanges I can explain all of the options available and offer my personal proactive service to monitor the market.

For more information at no cost or obligation please do feel free to get in touch with Jonathan Watson by emailing [email protected]. I have appeared on BBC News discussing the Brexit and have been quoted in numerous online articles and newspapers. I cannot tell you exactly what to do but I am very confident I can offer some useful insight and information to help you get the most from the market.

 

 

Currencies.co.uk top the currency tables again… Certainly food for thought – Worth contacting them to compare against your bank or current provider according to the Telegraph – Get preferential rates by quoting Pound Sterling Forecast on your enquiry!!

GBPEUR Rejected by 1.17 Price Level Again

The Telegraph have released a table of the best exchange rate providers and i’m pleased to say the company I work for has come out top… Please feel free to view the article I have placed the link below, it is also on Yahoo finance. Should you make an enquiry then by quoting POUND STERLING FORECAST  you will be put through to either myself or Ben (the authors of this site) and treated with the highest level of customer service whilst receiving commercial rates of exchange as I do for all of my regular readers.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/8659209/Overseas-property-purchases-affected-by-poor-exchange-rates.html

Sterling forecasts – How to play the markets

EU summit to influence the Sterling to Euro rates this weekend

GBPEUR rates has returned back to a volatile trading pattern as the new month has started. This is due to the economic data cycle starting again with a lot of updates on the economic health of the countries around the world. We have already had PMI data sets for the UK’s manufacturing sector and Service sector. These were mixed with manufacturing worse than expected and the service sector exceeding what had been expected. This is one of the reasons why the GBPEUR rates have now moved by over 2 cents between the high and the low this week already.  It shows and highlights how quickly things can change making a dramatic difference to the cost of anything from a holiday to a holiday home. Here we provide a service helping our clients through the currency maze. Informing them of information pending, forecasts, and expectations for the market so they can make an educated decision on when to trade. PLUS with access to award winning exchange rates you can be sure to save money compared to your current provider; both bank or broker. Simply put if that was not the case we would not be in business!  Feel free to test our service by getting in contact with STEVE EAKINS via [email protected]

So what is expected for the rest of the week.  Well today we have potentially the largest data sets for the month with interest rate decisions being published by the banks on both sides of the channel.  Any change here could be hugely significant changing prices not just for this week but for the months ahead, so if you are readying this and don’t need to look at markets for a few weeks or months it is still worth following these releases. Personally I don’t expect any change in policy at a central level but we could quite happily see commentary from the Europeans this afternoon change market values. Mario Draghi, the head of the bank follows the release with a press conference which is when this could happen. With data missing expectation across the single currency, a large Portuguese bank needing a bail out along with 3 Greek banks in the last 30 days.

If you would like an update when this hits the press please register your interest by emailing [email protected] with a summary of your situation and contact details.

Happy trading!

Pound falls against the Euro after Bank of England rate hike

GBP to EUR Forecast: Will Sterling See Further Losses Against the Euro?

The Pound came under renewed pressure against the Euro towards the end of the week even after the Bank of England chose to increase interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% on Thursday.

The Pound briefly touched toward 1.13 in the thirty minutes following the announcement but then the press conference confirmed what a lot of people have been thinking in that it will be some time before we see another interest rate hike.

Part of the reason for Thursday’s decision was to allow the Bank of England room to cut rates next year if things continue to falter concerning the Brexit talks.

On a currency transfer of £200,000 the difference was as much as €1,8000 from the high to the low which highlights the importance of being well prepared for movements on the currency markets.

The rate decision saw the first hike since last November and the base rate is now back to where it was in 2009. However, Bank of England governor Mark Carney reinforced the doubters by saying that the risk of a no Brexit deal was ‘uncomfortably high.’

As we go into next week there are a number of data releases due out which could affect Sterling vs Euro exchange rates.

Next week on Friday the UK will release the latest UK GDP data and this is expected to see a growth from 0.2% to 0.4%. The first quarter was relatively low but that was blamed by the ‘Beast of the East’ weather so it should come as no surprise that the data will see an improvement.

Therefore, in terms of much movement I think next week will be rather limited so if you’re comfortable with where rates are at the moment and want to save money compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for further information and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian [email protected]

Pound sterling forecast turns positive!

GBPEUR Exchange Rate Breaks Over 1.14 Again, Could Sterling See Further Gains Against the Euro?

After weeks of many negative predictions the outlook for sterling has in some quarters turned more positive with a series of banks and commentators raising their forecasts for sterling exchange rates. Based on numerous factors but principally the prospect of an interest rate hike fort he first time in over ten years, sterling exchange rates have risen and so have the forecasts.

With Brexit mired in uncertainty but nothing happening anytime soon to change the current state of affairs plus the prospect of a transitional period through to perhaps 2021, the scope for a sharp negative move on the pound looks more limited. Overall the pound has been sold off on multiple occasions and whilst there remains the chance of the rate turning negative again, the outlook is more positive.

For more information at no cost or obligation over what to look for on exchange rates please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing [email protected]. I work as a specialist currency broker, here to assist in the safe transfer and planning of any exchanges you will need to make. The pound remains at the mercy of ongoing political concerns and we could now see the pound lift higher.

Most at risk are clients holding the Euro as we see political concerns weighing on the Eurozone and the outlook dramatically changes. If you have a transfer selling Euros for pounds then making plans in advance or targeting spikes in your favour is a very smart move to avoid being caught out as many clients have been recently having missed the 1.07-1.09 deals available not so long ago.

There could still be opportunities for Euro sellers but making some plans in advance in this ever-changing market seems the smart move at present. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you soon.

Jonathan Watson

[email protected]

Pound Sterling sees a slight lift ahead of U.K general election – What will the next 48 hours bring? (Daniel Wright)

Pound Sterling Forecast – GBP to Weaken in the Coming Weeks?

When Prime Minister Theresa May announced the election we saw Sterling exchange rates receive quite a boost as it did look like a Conservative victory was a formality, most likely by a majority. This would have led to an easier path for her in Brexit negotiations. What we have witnessed in the past few weeks is a change in momentum, polls are indicating that Labour are gaining seats and uncertainty has been creeping into the minds of investors and speculators, leading to a sell off of the Pound and the rates dropping almost on a daily basis.

Political uncertainty and economic stability are two of the key factors that will impact the value of a currency, and at present with the election and Brexit talks we are currently witnessing both.

There are a few key scenarios that we need to watch out for towards the end of this week, one thing we need to be aware of is that no particular result is guaranteed to move the rate in a certain direction, the markets will quite often swim against the tide, but this is how I feel each result may pan out in terms of currency movements.

Conservative Majority: This would more than likely give Sterling a boost and lead to a little strength for the Pound. I believe this to be the case due to the Sterling strength we saw when the election was originally announced.

Hung Parliament: Again bringing further uncertainty for the U.K this is the result anyone looking to buy foreign currency in the near future will probably want to avoid, however last time we saw a hung parliament we did see a short period of weakness and then, the Pound did regain value and push up once we had certainty on what the plans were and had a settled coalition in place. What makes this scenario a little different is there are no obvious resolutions so we may see further uncertainty in the coming weeks and further weakness for Sterling exchange rates should this happen.

Labour Majority: This is by far the most unlikely result but should we see this happen it would bring huge change and I would expect to see a drop in the value of the Pound should this occur.

All in all we have another week where economic data remains in the shadows and political certainty is in the spotlight.

At the time of writing this the odds of a hung Parliament are only at 3-1, where as one days prior to the referendum the odds were at 8-1 for the U.K to vote to leave, and we all know what happened there!

Essentially the key to ensuring that you maximise any opportunities in these market conditions is communication, if you let us know what you are looking to exchange or what rate you would like to achieve, we can keep you fully up to speed with the latest action and inform you should a big opportunity arise for you.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast all of our writers work for one of the largest brokerages in the country and we pride ourselves on keeping people up to date with the very latest action on the market, helping them to maximise their money.

If you feel we may be of help to you then it is well worth contacting me directly and I will add you to my list clients and not only get you the very best exchange rate out there but also help you with award winning customer service too.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) on [email protected] with a description of your needs and I will be happy to contact you to discuss the various options available to you and to explain exactly how our service works. During the referendum we saved clients thousands of pounds by calling them the second the market moved and we would be delighted to assist you too.

Pound to Euro Exchange Rates in Final Stages of Brexit

GBPEUR Under Pressure Before Bank of England

Pound to Euro exchange rates have pushed back over 1.14 ahead of a volatile couple of weeks, with another important vote in British politics approaching. UK Prime Minister Teresa May has written to all MPs within the Conservative Party to try and rally support for her Brexit deal. A meaningful vote will be held in Parliament on the 27th February and if she is unable to find support for the existing Brexit deal then there will be another amendment put forward to be tabled by Yvette Cooper and Sir Oliver Letwin.

This amendment would see an extension of Article 50 which would mean Britain wouldn’t leave the EU on 29th March. This could potentially create more uncertainty for the pound. Whether or not this vote would prove successful remains to be seen, but it is clear that there is a great deal of uncertainty ahead for pound to Euro exchange rates with so many differing outcomes on Brexit.

EU will not re-open negotiations on the withdrawal agreement

For the time being Brexit negotiations continue to try and find an alternative to the controversial Irish backstop. However the EU insists that the withdrawal agreement cannot be re-opened and hence this still leaves the prospect of a no deal Brexit on the table. It will be interesting to see what comes out of these recent negotiations between the UK and EU. Anything positive that would give legal certainty that the backstop would be temporary could help get the deal over the line in Parliament.

Whilst the Prime Minister may lose the meaningful vote it is worth remembering that it has been enshrined in law that if no agreement is reached then the UK will be leaving on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. This could see considerable disruption in the short term for the British economy and for pound to Euro exchange rates.

Euro exchange rates impacted by Eurozone issues

The Euro has also been receiving a lot of attention of late with some very big changes happening to the economic picture. With Italy now officially in recession and so soon after its last recession the outlook doesn’t look optimistic, especially with Germany and France also seeing a downward trend in its growth forecasts.

Germany’s large export markets to the UK and China particularly for vehicles could see big problems for the EU’s biggest economy if trade with China slows further and if Brexit is disorderly. For the Euro the outcomes on the trade talks between the US and China and what happens with Brexit will play a major factor in the strength of Euro exchange rates.

Please do feel free to use the form below if you’d like to ask me a question about pound to Euro exchange rates. I’ll be happy to contact you personally.


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