Pound vs Euro: Will May’s Brexit Deal get through Parliament?

GBPEUR Exchange Rate: The Week Ahead May 16th

Parliamentary Vote crucial to Pound vs Euro levels

Theresa May saw her deal for Brexit accepted by Brussels this weekend. It took only 38 minutes by each 27 member states. This however did little to move Sterling as the true test for May’s deal will be to get it through Parliament.

There are many MPs who have openly criticised the current Brexit deal which could mean getting the deal through will be no easy task. The vote will take place on 11th December.

If the vote does not go through there is the strong possibility that Theresa May will either be ousted from her position or resign. There has been a call for a vote of no confidence from Jacob Rees-Mogg. There is rumoured to have been as many as 35 letters submitted to the 1922 committee, with 48 required for a leadership challenge to commence.

Brussels have made it clear that the current deal is the best they are willing to offer and any new PM will not be in a position to negotiate a better deal.

If we enter a “no deal” situation there is the strong chance May will have to go, one way or another. Conservatives must be aware that by voting against the deal, there could be a general election on the cards which could lead to the Tories losing power. Odds from bookmakers have it at 50/50 as to whether the deal will go through. I am of the opinion the deal will be voted through in Parliament as the consequences are simply too great.

Pound vs Euro: When to make your exchange

If you are sitting on Euros and looking at risk vs reward I would take advantage of current levels, before Brexit the Pound vs Euro rate sat at 1.42 and the historical average is 1.25.

If I was buying Euros however I would hedge my bets, trading 20-30% of my requirement before the vote and the remainder after the vote.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving.

Please feel free to send me a message directly using the form below:

GBP to CAD forecast: Canadian dollar strengthens due to oil prices

Pound to Canadian Dollar Remains Steady in 1.7479 and 1.7595 Range

In today’s GBP to CAD forecast we look at what’s ahead for the currency pair. The Canadian dollar strengthened against most major currencies yesterday as oil prices recovered some of the losses we saw last week. Regular readers will be aware that Canada exports many commodities and oil is arguable the most important. If we continue to see oil prices rise in the upcoming days, I expect to see CAD continue to make gains against most major currencies.

Bank of Canada not expected to raise interest rates

Its not all positive news for the Canadian dollar as markets are not anticipating the central bank to raise interest rates next month even though annual inflation remained above the central bank’s target. All eyes will turn to this Friday’s GDP numbers. If GDP rises it could be the case that markets will rethink the chances of an interest rate hike before the Christmas festivities.

GBP to CAD forecast

In regards to GBP to CAD exchange rates, Brexit continues to be the main talking point. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has 2 weeks to persuade fellow Conservative MPs to back her Brexit proposal. The vote in Parliament is set for the 11th December and is expected to have a major impact on the future of GBP to CAD exchange rates for the upcoming years.

Over the last 4 weeks GBP to CAD exchange rates have fluctuated between 1.6650 and 1.7250, however I expect the support or resistance level for the currency pair to be broken once the Brexit vote is over. If it’s the case the PM finds support from her Party, my prediction is for the GBP to CAD rate to rise towards 1.75 in the short term and 1.85 in the mid term. However, if its the case Theresa May fails to get the backing from her Party, I believe her days will be numbered and one of many alternatives could happen. If this is the case I expect the GBP to CAD rate to fall to 1.60 in the short term and 1.55 in the mid term.

Latest UK Bank stress tests

In other news the UK will release their latest Bank stress tests alongside the Financial Stability report. The reports have the potential to have a major impact on GBP to CAD exchange rates. However with banks being more regulated by the day, I don’t expect the release to spring any surprises. Therefore I expect either sterling weakness or a non event.

To ask me any questions about my GBP to CAD forecast or to learn more about how Brexit could impact exchange rates and feel free to drop me a message using the form below:

Pound to Australian dollar rates: When will GBP/AUD rates rise back over 1.80?

Pound to Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Slides as Hard Brexit Bets Build-Up

The Australian dollar rate has been struggling to find its feet against its counterparts, but against the pound it has made notable progress owing to Brexit uncertainties. The Australian dollar is volatile owing to US-China trade concerns and acts as a barometer of this topic and global trade in general.

The Australian dollar should remain rather sensitive to the headlines on both Brexit and also trade concerns as US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet the Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Argentina later this month. The Australian dollar is stronger on the loose expectation that some kind of deal can be reached, but the market is very cautious.

Pound to Australian dollar rate forecast

I think that trade concerns will continue to act as a drag on the Australian dollar but the outlook will ultimately be determined by the outcome of such events. What seems to me likely is Trump will continue to talk a strong game but will be quite quick to back down and seek a compromise. Such a ‘compromise’ should help the Australian dollar to rise.

The pound seems like it will continue to remain on the back foot as Mrs May’s Parliamentary Brexit deal continues to be the subject of speculation. What could be very interesting is the fallout on sterling should MPs reject her plan. With the EU saying they will not renegotiate on the terms, there is a very strong possibility of us having a no-deal Brexit which would lead to sterling weakness.

Pound to Australian dollar rates might reasonably drop below 1.70 in such a scenario, particularly if there is progress on the Trade Wars to support the Aussie dollar. I expect that ultimately a deal will be reached on Brexit and feel GBP/AUD rates back above 1.80 most likely by the end of 2018. However, the chances of severe volatility in the interim period, whilst the market debates this prospect, seems very high.

If you have a position to buy or sell Australian dollars against the pound, there are many important and difficult events coming up to move rates. Trying to accurately predict such movements is very difficult but we aim to guide you through the scenarios and help formulate a plan to minimise risk and maximise opportunity.

Thank you for reading and please do feel free to contact me directly using the form below to learn more about pound to Australian dollar rates:

Pound Dollar Forecast: EU Summit to impact Pound to Dollar Rates

Pound to Dollar Rate Moves Higher Following Fed Meeting Minutes

Brexit news causes the Pound to weaken against the US Dollar

The US Dollar has once again improved against the Pound dropping almost 3% in a week or the difference of £4,600 on a currency transfer of US$200,000.

The latest news on Brexit and the issues surrounding the proposed draft Brexit deal has not gone well for the Pound in relation to a number of different currencies including versus the US Dollar.

Prime Minister Theresa May is due in Brussels over the weekend as the UK and the European Union aim to organise a deal prior to this Sunday’s summit of European leaders. Behind the scenes, Downing Street is hopeful that an agreement could be reached prior to the EU Summit on Sunday.

At the moment the draft deal between the UK and the European Union has already been agreed and although some changes are still expected to be be made to the deal, both parties have suggested that the changes will be relatively minor.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has claimed that she will not attend this weekend’s meeting unless the text has been agreed prior to the meeting.

Pound to Dollar Forecast: Will GBP/USD move back towards 1.30?

Fears still remain over a no deal Brexit so if the Summit goes well this weekend we could see the Pound to Dollar rates head back towards 1.30.

With Thanksgiving being celebrated today in the US the markets may be relatively quiet so if you’re in the process of buying or selling US Dollars it may be worth buying if you’re happy with current rates to avoid the potential volatility when US markets reopen again tomorrow.

We end the week with US manufacturing and services data published at 2:45pm tomorrow. Both releases are expected to improve so we could see further strength for the US Dollar prior to the end of the week.

Clearly though it will be this weekend’s EU summit meeting that is likely to have a huge effect on the Pound vs the US Dollar rate so make sure you’re well prepared for a very busy start to Monday morning. For a free quote then contact me directly via the form below or by calling the trading floor on +44 1494 787 478 and asking for Tom Holian.

Pound to Euro Exchange Rates on Back Foot ahead of Emergency EU Summit

Crunch Time for Brexit Talks, How Could the Discussions Impact GBP Exchange Rates?

Pound to Euro exchange rates have struggled to gain momentum this week after the seven Government resignations which were seen last week created so much political uncertainty in Britain.

Theresa May to meet with Jean Claude Juncker today

UK Prime Minister Theresa May will travel to Brussels today to meet with the President of the EU Commission Jean Claude Juncker to try and bring Brexit negotiations to a close ahead of the EU summit which starts 25th November. Any statements from leaders today and after the summit next week will likely continue to drive the Pound to Euro exchange rates.

Pound to Euro exchange rates still weak

Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rates are still on a weaker footing with the threat of a confidence vote in the Prime Minister, which so far has failed to materialise. A number of letters of no confidence have been written to the 1922 Backbench Committee although the magic number of 48 to trigger a vote of confidence has not yet been reached. The looming threat is keeping the markets guessing and keeping sterling on shaky ground with Pound to Euro exchange rates sitting in the 1.12’s.

Bank of England Governor supportive of Brexit deal ahead of House of Commons vote

Meanwhile, the current Brexit plan has been supported by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney which may play to the Government’s advantage in trying to win votes to back it in the House of Commons. The most important date in the calendar is the meaningful vote on the Brexit deal which will be held in the middle of December. This will be crunch time for the Prime Minister and will be the biggest test under her premiership. If she cannot command a majority in the House of Commons for this key vote then we are likely to see a leadership challenge which would almost certainly be negative for Pound to Euro exchange rates in the short term.

It is difficult to see how the arithmetic in the House of Commons will work for Theresa May when considering the hostile response that has been seen to this particular deal. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) have signalled they will not back the Government as have many other politicians on both sides of the Brexit debate. Of course Theresa May relies on the DUP to vote in line with Government to push through key parts of Government policy. For these reasons the next few weeks are unlikely to generate any major gains for the Pound ahead of this paramount debate and so risks for Pound to Euro exchange rates remain in these final stages of Brexit.

For more information about Pound to Euro exchange rates or if you would like to discuss how to make the most of opportunities and timing a Pound to Euro transfer please feel free to contact me by using the form below and I will respond to your personally:

Sterling to Dollar exchange rate remains stable so far this week

Pound to Dollar Rate Falls Sharply

The Sterling to Dollar exchange rate has remained fairly stable in trading sessions so far this week, with the markets having wobbled slightly this time last week due to Brexit concerns along with uncertainty over the position of UK Prime Minister Theresa May.

Sterling to Dollar exchange rate sat around 1.28 levels

Having broken back through the 1.30 mark Sterling quickly retracted back against the Dollar and swiftly retraced back down into the 1.26 levels. Since then Sterling has made a slight recovery due to Theresa May continuing to remain strong, and with the potential of a vote of no confidence currently decreasing.

It had been thought that the PM would be facing a vote of no confidence and potentially could find her position as Prime Minister under threat, but currently those that have been waiting in the shadows to oppose her are struggling to get the number of letters they need, let alone being able to have enough people to vote her out should a vote of no confidence occur.

Will the Dollar weaken in 2019?

I have read a number of reports from analysts including those at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs that suggest the Dollar may not remain strong for long.

Of course Brexit will have a large impact on the Sterling to Dollar exchange rate but the general feeling is that the number of US interest rate hikes may slow up next year as the US economy falls back into line, after what has been a tremendous period of growth, employment levels and of course interest rate hikes.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for a currency, as it makes a currency more attractive to investors. With the Dollar being viewed as a stable currency and a safer bet than many others, the fact that the returns for investors have increased over the past year or two has then led to a flood of money moving into the Dollar.

In the age old rule of supply and demand, this has led to a higher demand for the Dollar and therefore its value has increased accordingly. What this has also led to is a flurry of money out of emerging market currencies, making them much weaker.

Where will the Sterling to Dollar exchange rate head?

My personal view on the Sterling to Dollar exchange rate is that as long as there are no major Brexit banana skins I could see the rates heading up into the mid 1.30s before Christmas, but we must be cautious that the Pound is highly susceptible to bad Brexit news or political uncertainty. This could drop the Sterling to Dollar exchange rate down into the lower 1.20s should a no deal Brexit or leadership challenge become likely.

If I had to make a prediction (which is close to impossible in this market) I feel a deal will be cobbled together eventually and the Pound will receive a solid boost off of the back of this. Also, with numerous analysts predicting Dollar weakness next year if I had Dollars to sell (or any currency pegged to the Dollar) I would be tempted to take advantage of current trading levels rather than roll the dice on what might happen with Brexit.

If you would like more information about the Sterling to Dollar exchange rate, or you need to carry out a currency exchange then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly by filling in the form below and I will be happy to speak with you personally.

Sterling to Euro Rates: Pressure Mounts on Theresa May

GBPEUR Above 1.15 and Looking for Guidance

Sterling to Euro rates update

Sterling has suffered significant losses against the Euro since Theresa May released her preliminary Brexit deal. There were several high profile resignations following the paper’s release, Chief UK Brexit Negotiator, Dominic Raab’s being the most damaging. Jacob Rees-Mogg then called for a vote of no confidence which was a further catalyst to the Pound’s fall.

What will happen to Sterling to Euro rates if there is a vote of no confidence?

In order for a leadership challenge to occur the back bench 1922 committee must receive 48 letters from Parliament members. Former Brexit minister, Steve Baker recently stated that he believes over 50 MPs are ready to submit their letters.

If this does occur expect a further fall for Sterling to Euro rates. If a vote of no confidence does not take place I would expect limited gains for Sterling as Theresa May will still have the job of getting her Brexit deal through Parliament.

A group of Brexiteers including, Fox, Grayling and Mordaunt are currently attempting to draw up a rival Brexit plan to the Prime Minister’s. It’s contents and the level of support received will influence Sterling to Euro rates.

The DUP threatens Theresa May

Ten members of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) have withheld their support for the Budget and are urging Theresa May to stick to her original plan. If support for the Budget is lost it could cause the Government to fall.

Sterling to Euro prediction

At present there is very little reason to warrant Sterling gains. I am afraid that if it were not for the concerns surrounding Italy’s budget the Sterling to Euro rate would sit lower than the current levels of 1.12.

If there is positive news be sure to have realistic expectations. A Sterling to Euro rate of 1.15 has been a key resistance point for 18 months and this was displayed on several occasions last week. If you have to buy Euros in the short term aim to move if the market hits the high 1.14s.

If you do have a currency requirement please do not hesitate to get in touch. I will endeavour to provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs in an attempt to maximise your return. I am also confident that I am in a position to aggressively undercut any legitimate competitors rate of exchange and would be willing to demonstrate this by form of live comparison.

You can send me a message directly using the form below:

Dollar Strength after Strong Jobs Data – Pound to Australian Dollar Exchange Rates

AUD Edges Over GBP as Australia Looks to Ease Lockdown Restrictions

Expect more volatility for the Pound to Australian dollar exchange rate

Pound to Australian dollar exchange rates have lost considerable ground over the last week although there does appear to be some support with rates holding firm above 1.75 for the Pound to Australian dollar rate. Much of the market movement and volatility has stemmed from the recent uncertainty in British politics, which has resulted in a sharp fall in sterling exchange rates. Expect a volatile week for the Pound to Australian dollar exchange rate, which will largely be driven by continued uncertainty over Brexit.

After an agreement was reached last week for the draft withdrawal agreement, the 575 pages in the weighty document are now being heavily scrutinised by Parliament, who will ultimately decide whether to vote in favour for this deal. The meaningful vote is not expected to take place until the middle of December which leaves a long period of uncertainty in these coming weeks.

Will Theresa May remain as Prime Minister?

Perhaps more pressing will be whether the total of 48 letters will be reached by Conservative Party members which would trigger a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May.

This threat of a leadership challenge is keeping the currency markets guessing and there could be a number of opportunities in these coming days depending on how events turn out. So far the Prime Minister is proving incredibly resilient but the arithmetic in Parliament is not working in her favour. If she cannot persuade Parliament to vote for her Brexit deal at a time when there are so many that are unhappy with it then the prospect of a no deal scenario will start to look more and more likely which would be damaging for the pound to Australian dollar forecast.

Strong jobs data leads to Australian dollar strength

It’s not just the weakness in the pound causing the drop in the rates. There has been a boost for the Australian dollar following strong employment numbers last week. Full time employment saw an additional 42,300 jobs created in October which was double the September figures, pointing to a better outlook for Australian jobs. Australia, like much of the rest of the developed world has been battling with low inflation and weak wage growth.

The Reserve bank of Australia will now be hoping that things are finally starting to improve and these better employment numbers should be the first step forward for wage growth and higher inflation. The markets are already starting to price in the prospect of an interest rate hike in 2019 with many commentators suggesting August of next year could be the time for that first rate hike, after 2 years of interest rates down under at record lows.

For information on how to make the most of opportunities and timing your pound to Australian dollar exchange please feel free to contact me by using the form below and I will respond to your personally:

Pound to Euro forecast: How low could the GBP/EUR rate fall?

Pound to Euro rate continues to fall, making history in the process

The Pound to Euro rate has had some of their worst days since the EU Referendum vote with GBP/EUR levels dropping 3 cents between the high and the low this week. It is no surprise to learn such movements are Brexit related and it should be no surprise to hear that this might well continue further in the days, weeks and months ahead.

Pound to Euro forecast: Will the Pound continue to fall?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate reached a peak of 1.1549, with the lows of 1.1254 tested yesterday. For now, the big question is whether or not the Pound will have further to fall. The likelihood seems strong as we might well see either further resignations from key members of Mrs May’s Government, or more of an effort to topple her from her own Party.

It is well worth noting that Pound to Euro rates have been much lower throughout the Brexit process. We were at 1.0995 only 10 weeks ago, and 1.1190 on the 31st October. Sterling has been very volatile against the Euro and this seems highly likely to continue. Increased prospects of either Mrs May being ousted as leader could easily destabilise markets. It is well worth pointing out the lows of 1.075 reached in August 2017 too.

To accurately predict what happens next with the Pound to Euro rate requires careful analysis of the market and what lies ahead. This is no easy feat and those with a position to buy or sell, relying on an assumption they believe they know what lies ahead, should be making contingency plans.

Pound to Euro rates: What’s next for the Pound?

Assuming Mrs May can stay on we will now need to prepare for the Parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal. All the indicators are that this will not be passed and what will happen then? No one really knows but we can expect the Pound will continue to be the main recipient of the uncertainty.

Pound to Euro rates are currently mid-range for the high to low performance in 2018, the possibility for further losses is high considering scope for further political uncertainty is so high. Quite often, the biggest gamble in the currency markets is to do nothing, waiting for something magical to happen.

If you have a position buying or selling Euros against the Pound and wish to discuss your requirements and the various options to protect your exchange rate, please do contact me Jonathan Watson directly using the form below.

Pound vs Australian dollar: Will the GBP/AUD rate remain above 1.80?

GBP to AUD Rate: Pound vs Australian Dollar Back Above 2, but Could Chinese Economic Data Support the AUD?

The pound vs Australian dollar rate has found itself back over 1.80 as expectation for a Brexit deal have increased. In what is being billed as a crucial day ahead for Brexit and therefore the pound, sterling could very easily find itself the centre of attention as the market digests the news.

Pound vs Australian dollar forecast: Will a Brexit deal be agreed?

Clearly the mood is buoyant and expectation high but we have been here on a number of occasions in the past and very recently, only to find the good news and market expectations of a Brexit deal being reached do not go according to plan.

The pound will be a key driver on the GBP/AUD pair today with other economic news released relating to the latest Inflation data. For people wishing to buy or sell Australian dollars the path ahead is rather mixed, but it would appear sterling may well rise further if a deal is reached on the UK’s exit terms. This does seem the most likely outcome at this time, hence the rise in the pound’s value.

However, the possibility of a no-deal scenario remains, even if the exit terms are agreed we do still need to see the EU and Parliament agree to the deal and give the go ahead. Any sterling strength may therefore be limited as the move is already largely priced in now, and there are still many more steps ahead.

Expectations for the pound vs Australian dollar rate

The pound vs Australian dollar rate has moved above 1.80 at the time of writing but could very easily find itself back under this important level once the market has fully digested any news. Markets will generally move on news information and whilst there is definitely still some upside, the biggest move will be lower since that is not the current expectation, i.e. for today to not lead to a deal and Brexit progress to stall yet again.

The pound vs Australian dollar rate does appear poised to rise higher presenting some better opportunities for the buyers, but do be wary, any sudden changes in the Brexit outlook could have a dramatic effect on the market and the pound.

If you would like to talk about pound vs Australian dollar rates, or have any questions about currency exchange and the options available to you, do feel free to contact me using the form below and I will respond to you personally. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

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