Will GBP exchange rates remain strong despite recession fears?

Last week saw the Pound to Euro break above the 1.1650 handle for the first time this year, after remaining rangebound between 1.1600 to 1.1650 since the start of 2024. The GBP/EUR pair have begun the week above 1.1650 even if only just, so the trend for the pair is gently climbing despite there being concerns for the UK economy falling into recession. Retail Sales figures for December were released last week and came out below...
GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review July 16  

When will the Bank of England begin cutting interest rates, and how could this...

The Pound traded within a very tight range last week, as currency markets have begun the year in quite a muted fashion. There was a range of just 115 pips for the GBP to EUR exchange rate, and the EUR to USD exchange rate traded within a range of just 80 pips. The EUR to USD exchange rate is the world’s most traded currency pair so this demonstrates how quiet markets were last week. Throughout much...

Could the Pound fall in value if the UK officially slips into recession?

Despite being a quiet week for economic data releases, on Friday there is arguably one of the most important data releases for the UK economy so far in 2024 as GDP figures for November will be released. In the third quarter of 2023 the UK officially contracted after revised figures showed a slight drop in economic output of -0.1% across the 3-month period of July, August and September. For the UK to into an official recession...

Could a UK recession apply further downward pressure on the Pound?

Last week the Bank of England voted to keep interest rates on hold at 5.25% as expected by the markets. Financial analysts now believe that the Bank of England has completed its current cycle of interest rate hikes with the attention now turning to how long the BoE will keep interest rates at the current elevated levels. The Pound remained quite flat against the Euro as a result of the decision, but due to some US Dollar weakness the Pound to US Dollar rate actually climbed...

Will a change in outlook from the Bank of England cause the Pound to...

Sterling exchange rates have dropped off since the Bank of England (BoE) opted to pause interest rate hikes. The last increase was made on the 3rd of August and the BoE kept rates at this level on the 21st of September which came as a surprise to the currency markets, and resulted in a slight weakening of the Pound against the Euro, US Dollar and most other major currency pairs. The next opportunity for the BoE to amend rates will come on the 2nd of November,...
GBP AUD Dips Again Ahead of BoE Rate Decision

Why are analysts predicting that the Pound will fall further?

It’s clear that the Pound has recently been in a downward trend against most major currency pairs, especially the US Dollar as GBPUSD has dropped by 10-cents since early summer. Last week the Pound weakened after a number of major financial institutions released predictions that the Pound could fall further over the next year. This is in complete contrast to how GBP exchange rates performed in the first half of 2023 when the Pound was the strongest performing currency within the G10 set of countries. Most...

Further Sterling exchange rate volatility expected in another week packed with economic data releases

Last week saw a turbulent week of trading, with GBP-EUR rates dipping to a 1 month low. The low was however short lived, and Sterling managed to claw back some strength back to 1.1660, as the European Central Bank indicated that Interest Rates have peaked. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, to 4% - a record high by the European Central Bank (ECB). This was the bank’s 10th raise in a row. This was seen as a doveish...
GBP USD Exchange Rate Plunges to Lowest Since September 2020

Will the Bank of England stop hiking interest rates after next week’s expected hike,...

The Bank of England is expected to hike interest rates once again on the 21st of September, bringing the base rate of interest up to 5.5%. This would be a 15th consecutive interest rate hike from the central bank, with the rate currently sitting at a 15-year high. Throughout the year the increasing rate hikes have helped push the Pound higher against most currency pairs, and the Pound was the strongest performing currency of the G10 in the first half of the year. Expectations of further...
GBP EUR Holds Gains After House Price Data 

Have GBP exchange rates peaked?

The Pound has been in the financial headlines mostly for positive reasons through 2023, and up until now it remains the best performing currency within the G10. Increasing interest rates to try and counter stubbornly high inflation levels have pushed the Pound higher, with GBP/EUR currently trading just over 1.1700 which is just over a cent from its annual highs. GBP/USD is currently trading just below 1.2800, although last month it managed to break above 1.3100. At its current level it’s over 8% up against the...
GBP EUR Dips After Spanish Inflation Jump 

Could the Bank of England surprise the markets again this week?

The Pound has managed to hold onto much of its recent gains against the Euro recently, as it continues to trade towards the top end of its annual range. Last month increasing expectations of further interest rate hikes pushed the Pound to a high of 1.1750, and at the time of writing the GBP/EUR pair are trading within 0.75 cents of this 11-month high. This week, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise interest rates to the highest level in 15-years. The general expectation is...