Pound to Euro rate: Will the ‘Boris Bounce’ last and what will the European Central Bank do today?

Pound to Euro rate Will the Boris Bounce last and what will the European Central Bank do today?

Pound movement driven by Boris Johnson’s election as Prime Minister

The pound to euro exchange rate has made slight gains. Sterling has also moved against all major currencies in the past two days in what has been coined as the ‘Boris Bounce’. Realistically nothing major has changed as of yet but this has bought a little political certainty for the UK and now investors at least know who is running the country for the time being at least.

With MP’s due to go on summer recess shortly it is unlikely we will see any major political drama in the near term, but should there be any surprise news surrounding Brexit then the market will react accordingly.

EU interest rate decision today: What could happen?

Today is quite a big day for the euro, with the European Central Bank (ECB) holding their interest rate decision at 12:45pm followed by the press conference at 13:30pm.

There has been increased speculation that the ECB may have to consider either cutting interest rates or going down the route of further quantitative easing to help stimulate, once again, the poorly performing economy.

Either of these options or the hint of plans to do this in the near future may well lead to euro weakness as both options are generally seen as negative for a currency.

All eyes and ears will be on ECB president Mario Draghi and the market will be looking for a hint as to what their move will be. Of course, if Mario Draghi holds off making any moves and suggests that they will continue to monitor market conditions before acting then we may see the euro have a strong afternoon.

Pound to Euro forecast

I personally feel that unless we do start to hear the words ‘no deal Brexit’ banded around with a serious tone then the pound still has further gains to make against the euro in the coming months, but do be wary that a ‘no deal’ Brexit or the chance of it increasing is the potential banana skin that could drop sterling’s value.

If you have Euros to buy or sell and you want some assistance in following the market along with securing a competitive exchange rate when you do come to carry out your exchange, then feel free to fill in the form below and I will be happy to get in touch with you personally.

Pound vs Dollar: US Jobless Claims rise – Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?

Pound vs Dollar: US Jobless Claims rise - Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?

Pound vs Dollar: Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?

US jobless claims saw a spike which provides evidence that the US economy may be seeing signs of a slowdown. Although this is only the first sign of this happening this could put pressure on the Federal Reserve.

Donald Trump has wanted to cut US interest rates for some time so could this be a catalyst to look at cutting interest rates in the near future?

We saw just 75,000 new jobs created in May, which was well below the expectation. Later today, the US will release Retail Sales for May. The expectation is for an increase to 0.4%. If the data comes in lower then this could result in some Dollar weakness.

Later this afternoon the Consumer Sentiment Index for June is released. This will provide an insight into the US consumer and their level of confidence at the moment.

Arguably the biggest factor this month for Pound vs Dollar exchange rates will come next Wednesday. The US Federal Reserve will announce their monetary policy. Although there is no change expected this month it will be the subsequent comments that will provide pointers as to when they may make a change. Therefore, if you’re looking to buy or sell US Dollars then pay close attention to this data release.

Pound vs Dollar: The impact of the Tory leadership election

Turning the focus back towards the UK and it appears as though Boris Johnson is the front runner to be the next Prime Minister. He won the first round convincingly yesterday with 114 votes. The next candidate won just 43 so it appears as though Boris is the clear favourite for the position.

Boris Johnson has claimed that the UK must leave the European Union by the end of October. If he gets in this could provide some certainty, at least in the short term. This news has given the Pound a small lift against the US Dollar providing an opportunity to buy Dollars at the moment.

If you would like a free quote for buying US Dollars or would like to ask me a question about my Pound vs Dollar forecast, then please feel free to contact me directly using the form below. I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP to CAD forecast: Cross-party talks likely to influence the Pound to Canadian Dollar rate this month

Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate forecast How will GBPCAD rates perform ahead?

Pound Sterling forecast: Brexit talks the main driver for GBP rates

Perhaps the main driver of Sterling value at the moment are the ongoing talks between the Conservatives and Labour regarding the Brexit plan. With UK Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal being rejected within Westminster three times so far, she now needs to gain the support of her political opponents in order to be able to carry out the Brexit before the next deadline date on the 31st of October.

There have been calls from Conservative leaders to end the talks as they aren’t progressing, according to reports. However, the Pound hasn’t been sold off dramatically so far, perhaps due to the fact that the talks remain ongoing. One of the main issues remains the customs union, and there are also a number of Labour members that aren’t prepared to agree on a deal that doesn’t include another referendum, which is another issue within the talks.

Brexit holding back Sterling exchange rates

The ongoing issues surrounding the Brexit plan are clearly holding Sterling exchange rates back, as the economy is actually performing quite resiliently despite the headwinds caused by Brexit. Wage growth has been increasing and the unemployment rate is just 3.9%, which is a 44-year low. If there is a breakthrough within the cross-party talks I personally believe that we will see a boost to the Pound’s value, similarly if there is another referendum announced I would also expect to see Sterling climb.

Canadian Dollar exchange rates under pressure

The Canadian Dollar has been coming under pressure recently due to fears surrounding the global economy, as the talks to resolve the trade war between the US and China heat up.

Global stock markets as well as the currencies of economies that depend on global trade have weakened due to the escalation of trade war talks between the two economic powerhouses and CAD has paid the price, with the Canadian Dollar trading at its lowest levels against the US Dollar since the 3rd of January.

Economic data expected this week

Economic data out of the UK is light this week, but there will be a number of key releases out of Canada with Inflation data being released tomorrow at 1.30pm, and then a speech from the Bank of Canada’s Stephen Poloz on Thursday which could impact CAD exchange rates depending on the content of his speech.

If you have any questions about my GBP to CAD forecast, or would like to discuss Pound to Canadian Dollar rates, you can contact me directly using the form below.

Will the Pound rise or fall versus the Euro in May?

Pound to Euro Outlook Are GBPEUR exchange rates likely to fall further?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has risen on the back of loose expectations that the UK might be able to strike a deal between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party. There is now a feeling that with both parties doing so badly in the local elections, there is added impetus to try and form an agreement to deliver a Brexit of some description.

Will the Euro weaken in May?

The Euro has also suffered of late with the market sceptical of some of the plans by the European Central Bank to restore confidence in the Eurozone. With the European elections scheduled for the 23rd May, there is added pressure and focus over the outlook both politically and economically for the single bloc.

The Euro could now well face increased pressures as investors try to gauge which direction events will take. It is likely more populist parties will find support from the elections with an increase in dissatisfaction of Government noted across the EU.

If there is a belief that an agreement between the Conservatives and Labour can be found, the Pound may well find some strength against a possibly weaker Euro.

Sterling might now appear more fragile however, since there are still some major gaps between the two sides to come to agreement over. The uncertainty is the key piece of news in my opinion which is holding back the Pound, this could see the Pound to Euro exchange rate losing value.

Pound to Euro forecast: Will the Pound rise or fall in May?

I predict that the GBP/EUR rate will now remain in a precarious position as the market awaits further news on how the Brexit talks are going and the likelihood of any further progress. Speculation too, around the outcome of the European elections will also I believe keep the pair in a rather volatile state.

GBP/EUR rates have improved for buyers, but could quickly lose value. If you are looking to buy or sell Euros against the Pound, please feel free to contact me to discuss the latest strategy and forecast to help maximise the position. You can send me a message directly using the form below. I will respond personally.

Pound to Euro exchange rate ends the week on a high – GBP/EUR over 1.17

Pound to Euro forecast How will markets react to the next UK Prime Minister

The Pound to Euro exchange rate had a great end to the week, rising above 1.17, as investors and speculators rushed to back the Pound in Friday afternoon’s trading session.

Why has the Pound risen against the Euro?

It is thought that the reason behind the spike in the market is that many now believe that due to the poor performance for both the Conservative and Labour Parties in local elections Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn could well move a little faster to reach a compromise to get Brexit moving along with a little more pace than the current sluggish one we have been dealing with.

Pound vs Euro: Brexit has been holding back the GBP/EUR rate

The uncertainty surrounding Brexit has no doubt been holding back the Pound against all major currencies and should this uncertainty lift or even speculation start to rise over an agreement potentially getting closer in the cross party talks then Sterling exchange rates could have a further lift to come.

Is now the best time to buy Euros?

Current interbank Pound to Euro rates are up over 1.17 following a long period of being stuck in the 1.15s which makes a huge difference for those looking to buy an overseas holiday home in France, Spain, Portugal or any other region involving Euros. Even the movement in rates from the high to low point today would make a difference in cost of over £1800 so it once again shows how important it is to buy your currency at the right time.

The currency markets have been unusually quiet in terms of volatility for a few months now and this could be the start of seeing pairings such as GBP/EUR moving a lot more again. In situations such as these it is crucial that you have an experienced and proactive currency broker on your side.

Should you wish to find out more about how I can help you with a potential currency exchange then you are more than welcome to contact me directly. You can fill in the form below and I will be happy to get in touch.

Having worked in foreign exchange for almost 12 years now I have helped thousands of clients with their currency transfers and I always welcome a chat about the exchange rates. Should you wish to have a discussion about Pound / Euro exchange rates then fill in the form below and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Pound to euro rate increases: Will Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn’s talks break the Brexit impasse

Pound vs Euro forecast: A higher probability of a no deal Brexit will result in a weaker Pound

Overnight the pound to euro rate increased by half a cent, off the back of the news that UK Prime Minister Theresa May offered an extended arm to Jeremy Corbyn to get involved with the future direction of the Brexit negotiations. To put this into monetary value the improvement could generate a client an additional €1,000 on a £200,0000 transfer.

Is the UK heading for Customs Union access?

In recent weeks Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has made it clear that the Labour party want some form of customs union access. Therefore for Theresa May to offer the leader of the opposition to get involved, it appears that the PM will now change her approach and go down the route of a softer Brexit. The problem the PM has is that many of her cabinet members have stated that resignations are on the horizon if either the PM looks for a long extension or customs union access.

Looking ahead, all eyes now turn to the meeting between the two leaders. If they manage to come to a compromise MPs within the House of Commons will have a vote on the Brexit deal before the EU summit on the 10th. In addition, if they fail to reach a compromise the Prime Minister has offered to allow MPs to vote on different alternatives in a bid to find a majority that they can take to the EU.

Pound to euro rate increases as no deal looks less likely

With the recent voting patterns in Parliament and Theresa May’s decision last night, in my view it looks like the most likely option is a long extension. The reason being is that MPs don’t support a crash out Brexit and it doesn’t look like there will be a 4th meaningful vote on Theresa May’s deal. This is being reflected with the current GBP/EUR mid market exchange rates above 1.17. However as we know the ongoing Brexit saga continues to keep us on the edge of our seats as anything could happen. For clients that are buying euros short term, mid market levels are 1 cent off the best rates we have seen in 20 months, if Cabinet resignations follow the PMs meeting with the leader of the opposition this could put pressure on the pound.

For clients that are converting pounds to euros in the upcoming week, the key economic data to look out for this week is, the ECB monetary policy meeting accounts released Thursday afternoon and Non-Farm Payroll numbers released Friday afternoon for the US.

For more information on the data releases and how they could impact pound to euro exchange rates feel free to fill in the form below and I will contact you shortly.

GBP/EUR Rates: Third meaningful vote is delayed for now, but will May gain enough support to try again?

Pound to Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate ahead of New British Prime Minister

Over the weekend it appeared like UK PM, Theresa May would attempt to have her Brexit deal voted on one final time in order to have the UK leave the EU under her terms, although this is now looking less likely.

Reports had suggested a vote would take place either yesterday or today but May appears to have failed to gain the support needed to have a chance of winning, especially after a conversation between herself and the DUP leader Arlene Foster yesterday failed to result in any progress.

Parliament vote to take control of Brexit

This has resulted in Parliament voting to take control, with UK lawmakers now set on vote on alternatives to her deal this Wednesday although these vote won’t be legally binding. These options are likely to include staying in the customs union, holding a second referendum and revoking Article 50.

GBP/EUR rates

I’m surprised to see the Pound trading at the current levels of 1.1660 against the Euro considering the original Brexit date is supposed to be this Friday, and yet there is no plan in place. Despite the EU still warning of the potential of a no-deal Brexit taking place, I think that markets have ruled out a no-deal which is why Sterling has managed to hold onto its gains against major currency pairs recently.

Economic data is very light today as there are no releases out of the UK or Europe today. Brexit will inevitable continue to be the main driver of currency value and with the votes tomorrow taking place I think these could be the next potential market movers.

If you would like to be notified in the event of a major market movement for the GBP/EUR pair, do feel free to register your interest as the next week of so could be volatile. Markets generally expect to see an extension but now that there may not be further votes on the PM’s Brexit deal there could be some surprises on the horizon that impact GBP/EUR.

If you would like to ask me a question about GBP/EUR rates or would like further information about currency transfers, please feel free to send me a message directly using the form below:

Pound to Euro Forecast – Brexit Extended

Pound to Euro Forecast - Brexit Extended

How could an extension to Brexit affect the Pound to Euro forecast?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has made some small gains following the latest Brexit developments from Brussels last night. The GBP to EUR rate is moving higher towards 1.16 for the pair after the EU agreed to delay the Brexit deadline until the 22nd May on the condition that Theresa May is able to find support for her Brexit deal in the House of Commons. If not then the Britain will leave the EU on the 12th April although it appears there may be a way of extending that date further with the UK participating in European elections if required.

For those thinking that Brexit was almost over, it is clearly not, with a number of weeks to go before a decision has to be made. A meaningful vote is expected to go ahead next week but at the moment it seems difficult to see the arithmetic in the House of Commons working for the Prime Minister. In fact French President Emmanuel Macron put the chances of Theresa May winning the vote at just 5%. Whilst a number of MPs from the European Research Group have signaled they will not vote for the deal, as have some prominent “remainers” including Dominic Grieve. If the deal is passed then there is likely to be a good opportunity for buying Euros although at this stage everything hangs in the balance.

The same different scenarios remain including the prospect of a no deal Brexit which is still the legal default position if a deal cannot be reached. Rates for GBP to EUR should finish the week with high volatility as the markets try and guess the final outcome of Brexit and politicians give their differing views on the matter.

There are likely to be some substantial currency movements for GBP vs EUR in the coming week and it would be sensible to plan around these key events. Expect a heavy round of interviews with the political heavy weights over the weekend which should offer clues as to where all of this is heading.

Bank of England hold interest rates

The Bank of England met yesterday and held interest rates at 0.75% as widely expected. The outlook from the Bank of England for the UK now very much depends on the outcome and timing on Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. Governor Mark Carney reiterated that no deal would result in no transition period which would cause a negative shock to the British economy. However it has also been reported that gagging orders have been placed on businesses with regards no deal planning highlighting just how close the country is to a no deal Brexit.

Use the form below to get in touch if you would like to discuss Pound to Euro exchange rates, or an upcoming currency transfer. I’ll be happy to get in touch personally and discuss your requirements.

What will happen to the Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate as 29th March approaches? Brexit latest

What will happen to the Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate as 29th March approaches? Brexit latest

Sterling exchange rates have started the week by remaining fairly steady as we enter crunch time for Theresa May and the UK, coming into the last two weeks of Brexit talks.

Yesterday, news that the Speaker of the House John Bercow was not prepared to allow yet another attempt at getting a meaningful vote through did lead to a slight drop off in the value of the Pound, but there are still various paths that Brexit could take over the next few weeks. We only have 10 days left before the deadline.

The Brexit deal could still be approved

We still cannot rule out Theresa May having her Brexit deal go through Parliament, even with John Bercow’s latest ruling. Prime Minister May is still locked in talks with the DUP and other members of Parliament that are currently against the deal. If she can turn enough heads then Parliament can overturn John Bercow’s ruling as long as they have a majority. This is quite a way off being possible yet but should she manage to pull this off then I would expect Sterling strength due to the certainty it brings back to the UK.

A Brexit delay could be agreed with the EU

The most likely outcome at present is that Prime Minister May will end up approaching the EU for an agreement to delay the Brexit date. It had been suggested this could be for as long as two years but could just as likely be for a much shorter period.

It would be no surprise to see this also give the Pound a slight lift, due to the fact that it could suggest that Brexit could end up being a totally different beast. It also opens up the door for the possibility of a second EU referendum or even a general election before any further major changes. It could also lead to the possibility of Brexit not even happening at all.

Either way if the delay was for a long period of time I would be surprised to not see Theresa May step aside and to let someone else take the reins.

The EU could refuse to delay Brexit

In order to delay Brexit all 27 EU countries need to come to an agreement that they are happy for this to happen. There is a chance that the request for a delay could be refused and this would be one option that could lead to Sterling weakness.

A refusal for a delay will almost back the UK into accepting the deal they currently have or to face the prospect of leaving with no deal.

No deal has been the big worry for investors and speculators as it brings a great deal of uncertainty and could lead to Sterling losing a lot of value until there is greater certainty on future plans.

There are also other twists and turns that could happen over the next 10 days and I personally would not rule anything out at this stage as we just do not know what is going on behind closed doors, so it would be foolish to make a stern prediction.

It does seem that most avenues to lead to Sterling strength but if you are in the process of a large overseas purchase, or bringing a large volume of foreign currency back into the UK then you need to make sure that you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side. With all the politics involved you need to make sure that you are ready and in a position to move quickly should the opportunity arise.

If you would like to speak with someone here at Pound Sterling Forecast who will be able to explain the various options you have available, along with making sure that your current provider or bank are offering you the most for your money in this key time, then feel free to fill in the form below and we will make sure we get in touch for a no obligation discussion with you shortly.

Will Brexit be delayed? Speaker John Bercow steals the headlines

Pound to Canadian Dollar forecast Brexit remains in Limbo

All national newspapers this morning have criticized speaker John Bercow’s ruling that Theresa May cannot bring back the same Brexit deal for a third vote unless there are substantial changes. The Times have even stated they believe Bercow is ‘Sabotaging May’s Brexit deal’ and Downing street are once again questioning the speakers impartiality.

Will Brexit be delayed?

It appears that now there won’t be a third vote before the EU summit on Thursday, therefore the Prime Minister will have to ask for a longer extension. The likelihood is that the EU will grant a long extension which could be potentially 2 years and there will be a minor concession which will allow a meaningful vote next week.

Members of Parliament that voted against Theresa May in the last 2 meaningful votes will have to ask themselves the question of whether they want an extension of 2 years. This opens the door to another referendum or vote in favour of the PMs deal to make sure the UK leave the EU in the upcoming months.

Pound to Dollar rates likely to be heavily influenced by Brexit updates

Pound to Dollar exchange rates have been heavily influenced by the ongoing Brexit saga over the last couple of years and I expect we could see further volatility in the upcoming weeks. Personally I don’t see the UK leaving with no deal now and a long extension is the most likely outcome. Therefore I forecast that GBP/USD exchange rates will remain range bound in the lower 1.30s for the upcoming months.

Selling US Dollars to buy Pounds

However for clients that are selling US dollars to buy pounds, if a deal is reached in the upcoming weeks I expect the pound to gain significant value. Over the last 10 years GBP/USD exchange rates have been as low as 1.20 but as high as 1.70. With exchange rates now in the 1.30s rates are still extremely attractive for buying sterling, therefore considering any short term GBP/USD transfers seems wise. For more information on Brexit and how the next couple of weeks could impact your transfer feel free to get in contact with me.

Economic data due this week

In other news, this morning average earnings and unemployment number are released for the UK. The numbers are set to remain steady at 3.4% and 4% respectively. Furthermore tomorrow the Federal Reserve are set to release their latest interest rate decision alongside the monetary policy statement. For more information on the data releases and how they could impact your currency exchange please feel the form in below and I will be in touch shortly.

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