Brexit deal agreed with EU: What does this mean for Pound Euro exchange rates?

GBP/EUR Forecast: Pound to Euro Rate Plummets 1.5% on Brexit Vote Delays!

Over the weekend the U.K took one step closer to Brexit, with members of the EU meeting to agree Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement. After 18 months of playing cat and mouse and sitting around the negotiating table the two sides have finally come to a compromise. What could this mean for Pound Euro exchange rates?

So far we have seen very little movement at the start of the trading week, many may have thought that Sterling exchange rates may have shot up, but this stage of the process being agreed had been fairly expected. There were a few wobbles earlier in the week as Spain had threatened to veto the meeting over Gibraltar, but those concerns were swiftly ironed out.

Parliament Brexit vote expected 12th December

The next move for the Pound will most likely be down to the political picture in the U.K and what we hear from members of Parliament and the Conservative Party in the next few weeks. It appears that the aim is for the crucial Parliament vote to take place two weeks today on Monday 12th December. In the build-up to this vote I would expect a huge amount of jawboning and commenting from various members as to how they feel the vote will go.

We must remember that should Theresa May’s deal be voted down, or should speculation be rife that there is a high chance of it being voted down then Pound Euro exchange rates could drop significantly. The reason this could happen is that we are in such a late stage now that should this deal not go through Parliament the chances of the U.K ending up in a no deal scenario will be high.

On top of this, Theresa May has also refused to rule out a resignation should her proposed deal not be approved. This could see a great deal of Political uncertainty in the U.K and once again that would put strain on Pound Euro exchange rates.

Sterling strength expected is Brexit approved by Parliament

Should the deal be approved then we may see a jump in the value of the Pound, as this would mean we are one step closer to everything moving forward. As mentioned earlier in this report the markets move on speculaton as well as fact. I would expect the Pound Euro rate to be fairly volatile in the next two weeks. This will throw up some great buying and selling opportunities along the way.

If you are in the process of buying or selling an overseas property and you would like our assistance with getting the very best rate of exchange and timing the transfer, then feel free to fill in the form below or make an enquiry on our site and we will be more than happy to get in touch to speak with you about your personal situation.

Pound Euro exchange rates: Economic data this week

We do not have a huge amount of economic data out this week, this is quite common for the end of the calendar month, but there are a few pieces to look out for.

On Wednesday we have banking stress test results in the U.K along with a general financial stability report. Thursday brings German employment figures along with some European Consumer Confidence and an EU financial stability review. Friday rounds the week off with the EU unemployment rate, expected to have seen a slight improvement, and inflation figures, both released at 10:00am.

Personally, I expect that Brexit will be the key driver for Pound Euro exchange rates over the course of the week. From initial research it does appear that there are many that are prepared to vote against Theresa May’s proposed deal, so be prepared that Sterling could have a tricky week should the negativity surrounding the Brexit deal gather momentum.

If you have any foreign exchange requirements, be it buying or selling a property, business requirements or quite simply moving money from one currency to another, bank to bank then it is well worth you contact me personally. Not only can I assist you with information to help the timing of your transfer but I can also ensure you get a market leading rate of exchange too.

Feel free to get in touch for a no obligation discussion about your specific needs by filling in the form below and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Pound Dollar Forecast: EU Summit to impact Pound to Dollar Rates

Pound Dollar Forecast: EU Summit to impact Pound Dollar Rates

Brexit news causes the Pound to weaken against the US Dollar

The US Dollar has once again improved against the Pound dropping almost 3% in a week or the difference of £4,600 on a currency transfer of US$200,000.

The latest news on Brexit and the issues surrounding the proposed draft Brexit deal has not gone well for the Pound in relation to a number of different currencies including versus the US Dollar.

Prime Minister Theresa May is due in Brussels over the weekend as the UK and the European Union aim to organise a deal prior to this Sunday’s summit of European leaders. Behind the scenes, Downing Street is hopeful that an agreement could be reached prior to the EU Summit on Sunday.

At the moment the draft deal between the UK and the European Union has already been agreed and although some changes are still expected to be be made to the deal, both parties have suggested that the changes will be relatively minor.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has claimed that she will not attend this weekend’s meeting unless the text has been agreed prior to the meeting.

Pound to Dollar Forecast: Will GBP/USD move back towards 1.30?

Fears still remain over a no deal Brexit so if the Summit goes well this weekend we could see the Pound to Dollar rates head back towards 1.30.

With Thanksgiving being celebrated today in the US the markets may be relatively quiet so if you’re in the process of buying or selling US Dollars it may be worth buying if you’re happy with current rates to avoid the potential volatility when US markets reopen again tomorrow.

We end the week with US manufacturing and services data published at 2:45pm tomorrow. Both releases are expected to improve so we could see further strength for the US Dollar prior to the end of the week.

Clearly though it will be this weekend’s EU summit meeting that is likely to have a huge effect on the Pound vs the US Dollar rate so make sure you’re well prepared for a very busy start to Monday morning. For a free quote then contact me directly via the form below or by calling the trading floor on +44 1494 787 478 and asking for Tom Holian.

Pound to Euro rate hits 6-month high as Brexit text is agreed

Pound to Euro rate hits 6-month high as Brexit text is agreed, what could happen next to GBP/EUR

Yesterday the Pound to Euro exchange rate climbed to its best levels in 6 months. This level was within half a cent from the best Pound to Euro rate in 15 months, making it a good time for Sterling sellers when recent trade levels are considered.

Brexit news positive for Pound to Euro exchange rate

The reason for the spike in Sterling’s value is due to the announcement that a Brexit text has been agreed upon by Prime Minister Theresa May and her EU counterparts. The upside movement so far has been limited as the arrangements need to be agreed upon by May’s Cabinet before being passed through Parliament. This morning there is a lot of talk about whether there will be any further resignations by Cabinet members that are unhappy with the proposed deal. I think that if any members do step down the gains for Sterling over the past 24 hours would most likely be wiped out.

There is also a chance that the Cabinet will reject the proposed Brexit deal and this could be another reason for a drop in the Pound to Euro exchange rate.

Cabinet meeting set for 2pm today

At 14.00 GMT today the UK Cabinet is expected to meet to discuss the future relationship between the UK and EU along with the draft withdrawal agreement. If talks go well and progress is made there is talk of the previously cancelled November EU Summit being re-instated around the 25th of this month. This could be another potential market mover as it would signal positive strides being made by May in her quest to appease everyone in what seems like an impossible task at the moment.

Positive economic data for the UK

The Pound may have also been helped by the strong wage growth data released yesterday, which showed a further rise in regular pay growth to a decade high of 3.2%. Economic data is playing second fiddle to Brexit updates at the moment but it’s worth knowing that there is October’s inflation data being released later today which could impact the Pound to Euro rate depending on the release.

Another key topic at the moment that could impact the Pound to Euro exchange rate is the Italian Budget. The Italian coalition Government is in disagreement with the EU regarding its budget allowance, and the pair appear to be at loggerheads as this issue has been rumbling on for a while now.

If you wish to be updated in the event of a major Pound to Euro movement, do feel free to send me a message. You can send me a message directly using the form below, to ask me any questions you may have about the Pound to Euro rate. I will respond to you personally.

Pound vs Australian dollar: Will the GBP/AUD rate remain above 1.80?

Pound vs Australian Dollar forecast - Will GBP AUD remain above 1.80

The pound vs Australian dollar rate has found itself back over 1.80 as expectation for a Brexit deal have increased. In what is being billed as a crucial day ahead for Brexit and therefore the pound, sterling could very easily find itself the centre of attention as the market digests the news.

Pound vs Australian dollar forecast: Will a Brexit deal be agreed?

Clearly the mood is buoyant and expectation high but we have been here on a number of occasions in the past and very recently, only to find the good news and market expectations of a Brexit deal being reached do not go according to plan.

The pound will be a key driver on the GBP/AUD pair today with other economic news released relating to the latest Inflation data. For people wishing to buy or sell Australian dollars the path ahead is rather mixed, but it would appear sterling may well rise further if a deal is reached on the UK’s exit terms. This does seem the most likely outcome at this time, hence the rise in the pound’s value.

However, the possibility of a no-deal scenario remains, even if the exit terms are agreed we do still need to see the EU and Parliament agree to the deal and give the go ahead. Any sterling strength may therefore be limited as the move is already largely priced in now, and there are still many more steps ahead.

Expectations for the pound vs Australian dollar rate

The pound vs Australian dollar rate has moved above 1.80 at the time of writing but could very easily find itself back under this important level once the market has fully digested any news. Markets will generally move on news information and whilst there is definitely still some upside, the biggest move will be lower since that is not the current expectation, i.e. for today to not lead to a deal and Brexit progress to stall yet again.

The pound vs Australian dollar rate does appear poised to rise higher presenting some better opportunities for the buyers, but do be wary, any sudden changes in the Brexit outlook could have a dramatic effect on the market and the pound.

If you would like to talk about pound vs Australian dollar rates, or have any questions about currency exchange and the options available to you, do feel free to contact me using the form below and I will respond to you personally. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound vs Canadian dollar forecast – When to trade?

Pound Vs Canadian Dollar – When to trade

Brexit continues to dominate pound to Canadian dollar rates

Brexit news is constantly effecting Sterling value with each statement in the process causing volatility on the market. We saw significant gains for the pound last week following news that the UK were on the cusp of a Brexit deal. News that the UK financial sector would have access to the customs union was one of the key points of contention, this bolstered the pound’s position. However, the Irish border deal remains unresolved.

Following a spike in the pound’s value last week, Jo Johnson announced his resignation which he cited was due to his unhappiness regarding the Brexit deal. Personally, I feel this is just another thinly veiled rouse to oust Theresa May rather than any genuine concern for Britain’s deal with Brussels. The Pound fell in value following his resignation.

Pound vs Canadian dollar forecast: The next 36 hours will be key to the Pound’s value

Michel Barnier has given until the end of play tomorrow to have a preliminary deal in place if we are to have an EU summit on the 23rd November. If this summit is announced expect the pound to gain strength against the Canadian dollar.

Do not expect the Pound to Canadian dollar rate to shoot up ten cents, it is important to remember that the deal will still have to go through Parliament in January. This is far from a foregone conclusion with many politicians up in arms over Theresa May’s current deal. If May makes compromises with Brussels the chances of the deal passing through Parliament will drop, which puts her position in negotiations extremely difficult.

Considering where Pound to Canadian dollar rate has been over the last few months, if I was buying Canadian dollars I would not be aiming for more than 1.7250 short term. Despite this if I was selling Canadian Dollars I would take advantage of current levels, simply by weighing up the risk versus the reward. If a Brexit deal is agreed we could see substantial Sterling gains, whereas if we see further problems in talks I think the gains will be limited.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

There are little releases of consequence from Canada this week so keep a close eye on Brexit news if you are hoping to maximise your return.

If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving.

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Pound to Australian Dollar – Sterling Outlook Uncertain as Brexit Negotiations Reach Endgame

Resignations in the UK and the impact of the Brexit deal on the Pound vs the Australian Dollar

The pound has slipped lower against the Australian dollar this week with rates now sitting well below 1.80 for the pound to Australian dollar pair.

Brexit key for pound to Australian dollar rate

Brexit is likely to remain the biggest driver for the pound to Australian dollar rate this week after UK Prime Minister Theresa May made a speech last night which signalled optimism that a deal on Brexit could be reached whilst the talks continued overnight.

She said that talks were immensely difficult but were now in the endgame with 95% of the withdrawal agreement in place. A cabinet meeting will take place today where Theresa May will update her cabinet on the current state of Brexit negotiations and the main obstacles to reaching a deal. The biggest issue revolves around whether Britain can withdraw from the customs union in the future or whether the UK must be bound by the European Court of Justice with the Irish border causing the issue.

Will an EU Summit to agree a Brexit deal be called?

The markets are eagerly awaiting confirmation of whether or not a proposed emergency EU summit will go ahead later this month and the outcome will almost certainly redirect pound to Australian dollar exchange rates.

If the EU summit goes ahead then this should be seen as a sign of confidence and there would likely be gains for GBP to AUD. However if no agreement can be reached on the Irish border issue then the pound is likely to fall lower as the prospect of a no deal scenario begins to look more likely.

We are getting close to make or break time and this could present considerable opportunity for those with pending Australian dollar requirements whether buying or selling Australian dollars. Any more cabinet resignations following on from Jo Johnson’s departure on Friday could see further weakness for the pound to Australian dollar pair.

Economic events that could affect the pound to Australian dollar rate this week

UK unemployment data this morning is expected to remain at impressive levels and at the lowest since the 1970’s at 4% which could also lend support to sterling. With a quieter economic calendar down under the Australian dollar is likely to see movement on any developments on any future trade deal between the US and China. There have been rumours that both sides are exploring ways to move forward to agree a trade deal which could prove beneficial for the Australian dollar if and when it materialises.

For information on how to make the most of any opportunities and timing your exchange for either buying or selling Australian dollars then please feel free to contact me by using the form below:

US Midterm results could cause US Dollar weakness

Volatile times ahead on GBP/USD exchange rates - will the US dollar get stronger against the pound?

The recent US midterm results will come as a blow to Donald Trump despite his response to the press. The Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats and this will give them the ability to severely limit any new legislation being passed. The Republicans formerly had power over the senate and the House of Representatives.

Another concern for the Republicans is that the Democrats will now have control of the Intelligence Committee, this will enable them to probe deeper into allegations of collusion between those involved in the Trump Presidential campaign and the Russian Government during the election.

Is US Dollar weakness on the horizon

Despite some of Donald Trump’s controversial views, in terms of the US economy he has proved to be very beneficial. With possible limitations on policy change moving forward, this does have the potential to limit growth and in turn weaken the US Dollar.

If the Democrats do find some dirt on Trump and it leads to questions over his position this could also cause US Dollar weakness, if he were ousted I would expect to see a steep fall in Dollar value due to the political uncertainty.

Federal Reserve US interest rate decision

Yesterday saw the US interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve and rates were kept on hold at 2.25%. There is still the strong possibility of a rate hike in December which could benefit the greenback.

Brexit latest news – Pound Sterling strength

Brexit continues to have major influence over GBP/USD exchange rates. Rumours have circulated that the UK financial services sector will have access to the customs union post-Brexit and an Irish Border deal is on the cards. This did cause Sterling strength. Be wary of thinking a deal is all but sewn up however. We have seen positive Brexit news regarding the Irish Border in the past, only to be quashed by chief EU negotiator, Michel Barnier stating that Brexit negotiations have reached a complete impasse.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

If you would like my help I can be contacted using the form below:

Pound vs Euro: Will the GBP/EUR exchange rate reach 1.15?

Pound to Canadian Dollar Forecast: Impact of the EU Summit Deal

GBP/EUR exchange rates are by some measures already at 1.15. Many sources of the headline ‘interbank’ exchange rate are rounded up, and with GBP/EUR trading in the mid to high 1.14’s for most of this week. Technically, the level has not actually breached 1.15 yet but it does seem highly likely.

GBP/EUR exchange rates: Brexit the key driver

Positive Brexit news is clearly the main driver for the pound with the market becoming excited that yes, finally, a deal on the UK’s exit terms from the EU is in sight. This week remains pivotal in delivering on this expectation and all the indicators are that we should have something more concrete soon.

Sterling should advance further on an actual confirmation this is to be the case, but it is not a straightforward yes or no answer. The pound will be driven by the news but much of the positivity does seem to be priced in to current rates. I think it is well worth pointing out it was only at the end of August when GBP/EUR exchange rates were below 1.10.

Whilst Brexit news is more positive, there is a growing concern over the UK economy with the all-important Services data for October posting a 7-month low. Services is the largest component of UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) so this is rather worrying.

Nevertheless, sterling was unfazed by this news earlier this week and this just highlights the importance of the Brexit news in determining the strength of sterling.

GBP/EUR exchange rate outlook

GBP/EUR exchange rates do seem very likely to reach higher but we have had numerous false dawns on Brexit. Plus, agreement this week will lead to an EU Summit where the matters must be approved by the EU before a parliamentary vote in the UK.

Brexit is not going to be magically solved in one day and clients expecting a smooth path ahead on GBP/EUR rates should be very aware of all manner of possible outcomes, which do remain on the table.

Thank you for reading and I would be delighted to hear from you and share some of my thoughts and insights on the direction the GBP/EUR exchange rate could now take.

US dollar weakness on Mid-term election uncertainties

US dollar weakness on Mid-term election uncertainties

The US dollar has weakened today following the results of the US Mid-term election. The Democratic Party won in the House of Representatives but suffered some losses in the Senate. The net impact from this is that Donald Trump will not be able to pass legislation as easily as he would have previously.

One of the reasons for the strength of the US dollar in the last couple of years has been the expectation that President Trump’s policies will fuel further economic growth, and lead to higher interest rates which make the currency more attractive to hold.

Is now the best time to buy US dollars with pounds?

Those buying US dollars with pounds are now looking at some of the most attractive rates in a few weeks. This is also down to Pound strength following the latest Brexit news, with there now being quite a high expectation a deal on the UK’s exit terms will be finalised soon.

Whilst there is potential further upside in the pound to dollar exchange rate, it does feel much of the good news may now be priced in. Expecting a huge jump higher might now be quite difficult in the absence of anything specifically new to drive the rates. The shock would be if Brexit talks now fail, that could easily see the pound dropping by 2-3 cents if confidence falls.

Will the Federal Reserve raise US interest rates?

For the rest of the week we have the US interest rate decision, being held tomorrow because of the election results today. The US Federal Reserve will make a decision on whether or not to raise interest rates, it does seem they are very likely to confirm a December rate hike, the 4th this year.

Despite the renewed optimism on sterling boosting GBP/USD rates, I still feel the US dollar will remain strong. The election is not completely bad news for Donald Trump and the US economy should carry on performing very well, attracting investment.

If you have a GBP/USD transfer and wish to discuss the exchange rate please do get in touch, I would be happy to discuss the outlook with you. Fill in the form below to send me a message.

Sterling hits highest buying level against Swiss Franc since August

Sterling hits highest buying level against Swiss Franc since August

The Pound has made good gains against the Swiss Franc over the course of November. The GBP/CHF rate has hit the highest level since August, smashing through the 1.30 level.

Sterling strength: Rumours of Brexit deal agreement lead to Sterling boost

The main reason behind the rise in value of Sterling is the positive vibes surrounding Brexit. It now appears that a Brexit deal for the UK is edging closer. However, anyone looking to buy Swiss Francs with Sterling still needs to be cautious. The rug could still be pulled from underneath their feet as a Brexit deal is still far from agreed.

Sterling strength is fragile

It would only take a little negative news to come out regarding the latest Brexit negotiations for the current Sterling strength to disappear. We have been close to a Brexit deal on a number of occasions before only to find out that it does not happen, so the current Sterling strength looks fairly attractive.

Of course, should a provisional deal be agreed then we may see further Sterling strength, but do be wary that this deal would then still have to be approved by Parliament and uncertainty would likely kick in again before we know it.

Economic data for the week ahead

In terms of economic data from Switzerland, unemployment figures are due to be released tomorrow at 07:45am and expectations are for unemployment levels in Switzerland to remain at 2.5%. Should the figure come out lower the Swiss Franc should strengthen, a higher figure would likely lead to further Swiss Franc weakness to kick off the trading day.

We have a whole host of UK economic data on Friday morning, with growth figures, manufacturing and industrial production and trade balance figures too. Growth in the UK is expected to have risen from 0.4% to 0.6% for the third quarter of the year. This may lead to some Sterling strength in trading on Friday morning.

If you have the need to carry out an exchange involving the Pound or the Swiss Franc, or indeed any other major currency then you are more than welcome to get in touch with me for a free, no obligation discussion about current rates and potential market movements for or against you.

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