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Will the pound weaken again in October?

By
Jonathan Watson
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The pound suffered some particularly volatile movements last week, with GBPEUR rising and falling 7 cents, and GBPUSD 9 cents. This relates to around 6% worth of movement on GBPEUR and 8% on GBPUSD.

Such movements just highlight how volatile currency can be, and indicates why any clients looking to buy or sell the pound should be very conscious of the current market, and some of the particular attributes and behaviour of a currency, that can influence such sharp rises and falls.

This week the Conservative Party Conference will see Liz Truss deliver the closing speech on Wednesday which could be a market mover. Whilst investors were forewarned and had some expectations of the ‘mini-budget’ that took place the Friday before last, the extent of the volatility did appear to take many by surprise.

In a sign of the less than coherent narrative coming from Downing Street, Kwasi Kwarteng has this morning announced he will be reinstating the 45 p, top rate of income tax. This is following a series of public displays of concern from MP’s and cabinet members alike.

Kwasi and Liz have shown they are willing to listen to their own party, and also the public, but does this not also display a weakness and uncertainty over the confidence they supposedly had in their economic agenda?

The pound has been weaker because of the economic uncertainty over the new government’s plans. The huge increase in public spending, via tax cuts is widely seen as an ill move considering the delicate nature of the economy at present.

Investors are concerned that the UK is taking too big a risk with the tax cuts, and a more sensible approach on fiscal policy, to help balance the books is preferable.

Only time will tell, but with the Bank of England being forced to react to the potentially inflation boosting tax cuts, there continues to be a loud conversation around not only the conflict the government now has with the Bank of England, but also whether the government has got the UK on the right path.

Can we rule out further sterling weakness? For now, we definitely cannot as the currency markets react to the unfolding of this ever changing situation.

As well as the Liz Truss speech, we could expect other comments from government or MP’s this week, any of which might influence sentiment towards the pound.

We also have a whole host of new economic data as it is the beginning of a new month. A key piece of news this week will be the latest ‘US Non-Farm Payroll’ data, and unemployment report.

The US dollar has a big influence on the pound and also the Euro, and movements on the back of this news can influence EURUSD rates, which in turn often affect GBPEUR and GBPUSD levels.

Are you planning any currency purchases in October, buying or selling the pound? Will the pound weaken in October is a very valid question, and we can share with you the latest news and sentiment to help with any decision making over your FX payments.

For more information and to discuss strategy for any transactions you are considering, please contact me Jonathan on [email protected]

Thank you for reading and we look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

 

 

Will the pound keep rising against the Euro and when is the best time to buy Euros in September?

By
Daniel Wright
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A Rollarcoaster Week for GBP EUR - Weekly Review June 18th 

The pound to Euro exchange rate has bounced back from the recent lows rising above 1.16 and making a brave challenge for 1.17 in the last 24 hours. Some fresh confidence that finally, the British government is going to do something about the awful cost of living crisis facing the UK has seen investors take advantage of the recent lows of sterling and buy in some speculative positioning.

It might be argued that all this has done is stem the tide of a majorly depreciating pound, but however you look at it, it has bounced back presenting an opportunity to buy Euros some market watchers might have thought had passed. At its more recent lows of 1.14s, the pound is over 5 cents lower from the almost 1.20 level we hit at the turn of August.

This sudden turn of events shows just how quickly market sentiment can change, and how expensive it can be to hold out for that little bit extra when considering a large volume currency purchase. The reality is no one can say precisely what the market will do next, but with careful analysis of the facts and an educated assessment of previous behaviors, you can make an insightful decision that is based on something.

Whilst sterling has bounced higher on the news that Liz Truss will seek to help with the cost of living crisis, we are awaiting firmer details and this will perhaps not be an overnight change. The current inflation the UK is experiencing is now deep-rooted, with a shift back to more acceptable levels likely to take many months if not years. The problems of inflation are everywhere to see, with less spending power available for consumers, which is already impacting economic growth and presenting headaches for the Bank of England.

This issue, whilst not unique to the UK and sterling, has more seriously affected the UK because consumers have been more exposed to the higher inflation than in some other European countries where more is done to temper higher energy costs through state intervention.

Looking at some of the predictions for GBPEUR ahead, we can see a fair range with some analysts seeing back towards 1.20, others anticipating a move below 1.10 over the next 12 months. This reflects the great uncertainty over just how the market will react to some fairly monumental changes in interest rate policy for both the UK and Eurozone, as well as in the United States all against a backdrop of potential recessions and worryingly high inflation.

As an FX dealer for 13 years at one of the UK’s longest-established FX brokerages I would be very happy to share much greater insight into the forecasts ahead, and work with you to develop a strategy to help maximise your currency exchange. At the very least I might be able to give you some peace of mind and reassurance, from a chat with an expert over why rates are where they are, and what we can expect in the future.

Click here to contact us today.

Sterling Hits Fresh Highs! Will the pound continue to rise this week?

By
Jonathan Watson
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GBPEUR Forecast – Internal Market Bill Drives GBP Lower

The pound has reached fresh highs against both the Euro and the US dollar in the last week, as weeks of general malaise and negativity for the pound seem to evaporate. The key question for many will be, is this going to continue?

GBPEUR levels have risen to three-week highs of 1.1582 in the last 24 hours, where we had seen a low of 1.1326 two weeks ago. The move on GBPUSD is more impressive, with the near 1.20 hit recently, the highest since August, a three-month high.

The pound was weaker as many of us will know because of many issues, most fundamentally the policies of the Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng administration in the UK which led to markets rejecting the pound in protest.

Sterling had clawed its way back as the Bank of England made clear they would be there to manage inflation through higher interest rates, although the prospect of interest rates rising too sharply was also sterling negative, in creating uncertainty and fear over the damage interest rates being too high would cause to economic growth.

Looking to the last couple of weeks, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt’s plans seem to be much better received although there is still plenty of caution. Rather than everything suddenly being rosy, it is more that their more measured and careful approach to public finances has calmed markets, where the previous Prime Minister and Chancellor combination scarred them.

Looking to the reasons behind the rise for the pound, we can return to some of the earlier points in my post, namely the big rise for GBPUSD. The US dollar accounts for over 60% of globally traded foreign exchange, and where we see large movements and changes in sentiment on the US dollar itself, it can influence movements on other USD pairings, including GBPUSD, which can then influence that paired currency against other currencies, ie GBPEUR.

The pound has therefore risen against the Euro and other currencies in part because of a broad weakening of the US dollar, which has dragged the pound up against other currencies, leading to its rise against other currencies like the Euro.

In answer to the question will the pound keep rising, it may well do. But it can be argued the UK fundamentals are the same they were a week or so ago, when the pound was weaker. The UK is still likely headed for a deep recession, the Bank of England has predicted that this could last for much of 2023.

Yes, the pound has risen, and yes, this might well continue. But it should be noted that the move higher is not because all of a sudden markets are much more positive over the UK’s economic outlook, it is also to do with more global factors. The risk of a move lower is therefore very present, and a majority of the FX forecasts we had surveyed did predict this over the coming months.

Understanding fully the reasons behind movements in the FX markets can lead to better information and in principle better more informed decisions. We can provide guidance as to what is happening, and in combination with a range of tools and options, help ensure you can approach the FX markets and any payments you need to make, with more confidence.

To discuss any strategy relating to a currency exchange and what lies ahead next for the UK and the pound, please contact me directly on [email protected]

I have worked as an FX dealer for 13 years, and helped thousands of private individuals and businesses plan and mitigate their foreign exchange risk.

Will Sterling continue to recover following last week’s dramatic sell-off?

By
Joe Wright
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Pound to Dollar Rate Drops to One-month Low

Yesterday the Pound begun the week in a strong fashion, following on from its recovery towards the end of last week.

During last week’s trading session the Pound traded within an 8% range against the US Dollar and the trading range for GBP/EUR wasn’t far from this kind of dramatic trading range either. I would say that it was the most volatile week of trading since the Brexit vote took place back in June of 2016.

The Pound begun to fall in value in the fall-out from the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget report when he announced that the government planned to scrap the higher tax bracket of 45p for higher earners. Financial markets were concerned with this plan along with a number of other announcements from Kwarteng and the Pound begun to tumble as a result.

The decision to go back on this plan, along with rumoured Bank of England buying up of long term bonds to stabilise the Pound’s value and financial markets has helped the Pound recover after it hit the lowest levels in history against the US Dollar, and the lowest level against the Euro in almost two-years.

Although the Pound has now recovered against the Euro and also recovered some of the losses against the US Dollar, moving forward there remains a number of underlying issues which could put further pressure on the Pound. The Conservative Party are facing a number of challenges as there didn’t appear to be a clear consensus between them regarding the financial announcements at the mini budget. Also, Labour is leading in the polls by a considerable margin so there could be political uncertainty in future which could put pressure on the Pounds value.

When markets are moving this quickly, and political updates are having such an impact on the value of the Pound it can be difficult to know when to make currency conversions and that’s where having a currency specialist on hand to keep you updated can be helpful. We can provide you with market updates and also help set up rate alerts to keep you informed.

For further information please feel free to contact me directly on [email protected]

Bank of England and mini budget – The impact on Sterling exchange rates

By
Daniel Wright
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 GBP EUR Higher After Inflation Hits Another High 

The Bank of England increased interest rates for the 7th time in a row by 0.5% to take the base rate up to 2.25%, which was the biggest single rate hike in years. This caused the Pound to fall briefly against both the Euro and US Dollar as there were some predictions that the Bank of England may have raised rates by as much as 0.75%. As this didn’t happen the Pound plunged almost immediately after the announcement but managed to reverse some of the earlier losses later in the afternoon.

However, as of Friday morning, the Pound has struggled against both the US Dollar and the Euro and we are due to have the announcement from the Chancellor later today which is likely to cause more movements for GBPEUR exchange rates as well as GBPUSD exchange rates.

Currently, the US Dollar is close to its strongest level in history vs the Pound highlighting the real problems that the UK economy is facing whilst in the midst of a cost of living crisis. Indeed the GBPUSD exchange rate is at its lowest level seen since 1985 creating some excellent opportunities for those people looking to exchange US Dollars into Sterling in the short term. I have personally seen a rise in enquiries of clients looking to move money from the US to both the UK and Europe

The mini-budget is due out later with Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng due to announce online tax cuts as well as dropping the planned rise in corporation tax. The economy and currency markets will be waiting with baited breath to see the impact of the announcement so pay close attention to the statement later on today.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like a free quote then contact me directly [email protected] I have worked in the industry for 19 years and I’m confident of being able to help you.

Has the pound recovered? BoE announce emergency intervention

By
Richard Nugent
-
A Rollarcoaster Week for GBP EUR - Weekly Review June 18th 

The pound and UK financial markets have been in turmoil over the last few days following the governments mini-budget announcement on Friday, where they pledged to cut taxes by billions of pounds. The budget is un-costed and will have to be debt-financed to cover the cost of the cuts.

Monday’s session, saw cable (GBPUSD) drop to all-time lows, with GBPEUR rates hitting 2-year lows at the worst point of trading. The pound recovered throughout the day yesterday, and at one point was 1.5% up against the dollar. Some of these gains have been lost overnight.

Yesterday, the Bank of England announced that they would intervene in the government bonds market to stabilise a collapse in the price of bonds. They said the decision to buy government bonds was caused by ‘a material risk to UK financial stability’. The pound fell initially post announcement before recovering close to levels seen at the start of the day.

A weaker pound increases the cost of imports of services and goods. Businesses will ultimately have to pass on the increase in cost to consumers which will further fuel inflation. The Bank of England are under pressure to keep inflation under control and protect the value of the pound.

On Monday, the bank confirmed they stand ready to tackle inflation with all tools available but will not hold an emergency monetary policy meeting. The next meeting is set for 3rd November. Markets are now beginning to expect a ‘super hike’ from the bank, meaning they may raise by more than 1% or 100 basis points.

There is now a serious risk that the UK is going to face a deeper and longer recession than expected which would be negative for sterling. If the bank does announce a ‘super hike’ in November, then interest rates in the UK will have risen far sharper than expected even a few months ago.

The increase in the cost of borrowing will drive up mortgage prices for everyday Britons. Household disposable income will therefore decrease as people pay more cover their rising mortgage and energy bills. As disposable income decreases so does the amount of money being spent in the economy, and this will negatively impact growth.

GBPEUR hit 1.05 the last time the UK was in a recession. £200,000 now buys €12,400 less than a month ago. If the pound were to drop to 1.05. £200,000 would buy €13,000 euros less than today.

Labour leader Keir Starmer and even some Tory MP’s are calling for the budget announcement to be reversed. This would be a spectacular U-turn for the Truss government and is not expected. However, a reversal in policy would likely hand aid to a struggling pound.

If you have any upcoming requirement involving the pound and would like some assistance, do feel free to reach out to me directly at [email protected]. There are several tools available that can help protect you from currency risk and help build a payment strategy that works for you.

What will 2023 Bring For Sterling Exchange Rates?

By
Daniel Wright
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Sterling exchange rates have dropped on the whole throughout 2022 and it is fair to say there are a number of quite obvious reasons behind the poor performance of the pound over the course of the year.

Here is a summary of GBP paired against a selection of major currencies and the movement since 1st Jan 2022 as an example.

GBP/USD -10.79%

GBP/EUR -4.97%

GBP/CAD -5.44%

GBP/AUD -4.69%

GBP/CHF -9.97%

All in all, the above suggests the pound indeed had a torrid time of it, most notably shortly after Liz Truss became Prime Minister and we saw a mini budget announced from then Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng which ultimately cost him his job, but also knocked the pound for six, dropping to a 1985 low against the Dollar at one point.

We in fact had three Prime Ministers and four Finance ministers over the year, not a recipe for certainty and stability.

On top of this, the Bank of England have been fairly slow to act on raising interest rates in comparison to other Central Banks around the world, we are still yet to see if this move will pay off now that inflation is expected to start to come down, however what that has done is led to a flow of money out of the pound and into more rewarding currencies, such as the USD where the Federal Reserve have been aggressive in their interest rate hikes, thus making their currency more attractive to investors looking for a great return.

What will 2023 bring?

There is no getting away from the fact that 2023 will be a tough year for many and that the UK will likely be in recession for most if not the whole year, however it is also important to remember that the UK is not alone with this problem.

Equally the same can be said for inflation issues, cost of living, energy prices and the prospect of Covid poking its nose back into daily life more aggressively once again, virtually the whole world has these issues, the key will really be how they are dealt with and who can bounce back the quickest.

I would hope that this year the UK can avoid the political turmoil seen over a number of months in 2022, political certainty is one of the key drivers for the performance of a currency and there is absolutely no doubt the circus act that played out earlier in the year from Boris to Liz to Kwasi with many smaller parts played as well will have done nothing but hurt the pound and I still don’t believe it has truly recovered internationally because of this.

Investors however do seem to feel that Sunak and Hunt are a safer pair of hands, so should they avoid any drama in the coming year this should settle the pound a little and I believe this would give Sterling exchange rates the chance of a better year.

In terms of the economic issues that we are facing I would be a fool to say there won’t be moments throughout 2023 that will cause nerves for investors and speculators when it comes to the Pound.

We clearly will have a squeeze on everything, the person on the street already has less in their pocket and that seems like it may only continue, this will in turn hit retailers and could cause a domino effect on the UK’s economic performance as a whole.

Many may not have felt the interest rate squeeze on their mortgage yet but there will be a lot of renewals coming up in 2023 which could cause further issues for households and house prices as a whole are expected to come down.

Bills on the whole for everyone are going up whether it is heating your home, filling up your car or getting your weekly shop everything is becoming tougher and there are many in the UK that are struggling already, so I feel the first few months of 2023 could continue to be a tough period for sterling exchange rates, as it is unlikely consumers will be flying out of the traps to spend in early 2023 if anything it could be time to batten down the hatches and to get to Spring.

From Spring onwards it wouldn’t surprise me to see people out spending again, if only a little. Heating will be going off, that British attitude of keep calm and carry on will likely play its part and I would hope that 6 months of political stability might start to draw investors back in.

Despite the challenges the UK faces as a whole there is a huge amount going for it. During and after the last big recession in 2008 the UK bounced back considerably well and outpaced all other members of the G7, so it does show that historically the UK can bounce back and bounce back well, so this will all being well give investors confidence to look to the pound, especially whilst it is what could be deemed undervalued and it would not surprise me to start seeing investors position themselves for a Sterling recovery later in the year.

Morgan Stanley recently published that they believe the pound would be in their top ten surprises of 2023 and expect Sterling strength, you can find many other economists arguing the opposite but I tend to agree with Morgan Stanley on this one.

My expectations are of a fairly bleak and challenging winter further pushing the pound only to see a recovery as the year progress, albeit it is really hard to know for sure what is around the corner in the currency markets, this is where I feel things could pan out for the pound in 2023.

Currency exchange to carry out in 2023?

Do you have a large currency exchange to make in 2023, for your business or buying/selling an overseas property?

Do you move money regularly and have you not compared rates and service recently?

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Feel free to contact us directly on [email protected] should you wish to find out a little more about how we can help you, or if you would like access to our trading team who can discuss an individual situation you have and to directly tailor or research from multiple analysts on how the market may move for you, so that you can maximise your money.

If you simply would like to request a quote to see how we compare against your current choice to move money then this can be done by clicking this link and we will be in touch in due course.

I wish you all a Happy New Year and a fantastic 2023.

Will pound sterling keep rising? Focus on Bank of England Thursday

By
Jonathan Watson
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GBP EUR Still Struggling Below 1.1600 Level 

Will the pound keep rising? To assess how the Bank of England meeting Thursday will affect the pound, we can look at the forecasts.

We researched data across 54 banks and just 9 think GBPEUR will be above current levels (1.1462) in the coming months.

The other 80% plus forecasters, indicated rates will be below 1.14. The research shows there might not be much headroom on GBPEUR levels.

The pound ended the first week of May well. Sterling hit the highest points of the year against the Euro, and a one-year high against the US dollar.

On a £500,000 purchase of Euros, you now get an extra €17,000 from February’s lows, and the same transfer into US dollars achieves an extra $42,600 from the March low.

Crucial week ahead for the pound

If you have an exchange to convert pounds now or in the future, the pound is enjoying fresh highs against many currencies.

However, we are about to have an important event with the latest Bank of England interest rate decision. I have been pointing out for some weeks the importance of this week’s decision, you can read here.

Getting ‘the best rate’ involves timing and preparedness. To help our clients take advantage of the market, we offer a range of options to help them maximise their position.

Please contact me for more information on strategy and what to expect [email protected]

The rise of sterling has largely been down to events elsewhere, with both the Eurozone and United States scaling back interest rate hikes.

The US dollar accounts for 60% of globally traded FX, and the Euro 20%.

With the pound coming in around 5%, it has been ‘lifted’ by the weakness of these two currencies.

Interest rates are a key factor in determining the relative strength or weakness of a currency. When interest rates are raised, we can typically see a currency strengthen.

And when interest rates are lowered, we can often see a currency lose value.

This is because just like a higher interest rate on a bank account will attract investment, a higher (or lower) interest rate by a central bank will feed through into the attractiveness of that currency.

Will the UK upset the recent trend of central bank decisions?

On Thursday next week, we have the latest Bank of England interest rate decision, where it will be the UK’s turn to enter the interest rate party.

The Bank of England is expected to raise rates next week, just like the US Federal Reserve and the ECB. What is less clear is the effect on sterling.

The commentary of the Fed and the ECB indicated a slightly softer outlook for further interest rate hikes ahead. This led to a weakening of both currencies.

There is positive news the UK economy has so far avoided recession. But, there are a number of worries over high inflation in the UK. This has ended up hampering consumer spending and putting pressure on wages.

The pound could easily suffer a similar fate to both the Euro and US dollar. And fall on a less than positive interest rate outlook ahead.

Thursday is looking like the key day for the pound this week

Thursday’s news is the key focus for the pound. So, a sensible FX strategy should be factoring in the potential outcomes here.

The King’s coronation bank holiday in the UK makes for a more condensed trading week.

The crucial Bank of England meeting and bigger movements on sterling rates last week could mean increased volatility this week.

For more information on what to expect next week please contact me at [email protected]

I am one of the senior traders at one of the UK’s largest FX brokerages. My team and I will be happy to share our research and market insight.

Thank you for reading,

Jonathan

Will the pound continue to rise against the US dollar and Euro?

By
Jonathan Watson
-
GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review July 16  

Sterling has been performing much better lately after improvements in the UK’s economic outlook combined with expectations that the Bank of England will be looking to raise interest rates sooner and potentially higher than previously expected.

Looking to the latest interest rate outlook, the Bank of England has been earmarked to raise interest rates in the future at some stage but this might well need to happen sooner than expected.

Overall, UK interest rates are not set to be raised until the next meeting in early May, which could be a key time for both the pound, but also the Euro and the US dollar too, with expectations for both central banks there, the US Federal Reserve, but also the ECB (European Central Bank) also predicted to raise interest rates.

The raising and lowering of interest rates is one of the biggest factors driving the strength and weakness of a currency, and whilst the pound has been stronger at times in the last year because of this, we do need to factor in the fact the other central banks globally are also looking to raise interest rates too.

Therefore, whilst the pound has been stronger, these other currencies have also been stronger. The Euro is notably much stronger against the US dollar, and for example the Australian dollar compared to more historical levels.

The rest of April has some important data releases which will influence economic and market sentiment, and might well see some changes in the economic outlook and could shape the decisions that are coming up.

Expectations ahead are far from clear but clients looking to buy or sell the pound in the future should be aware of a number of mixed forecasts from some of the big banks in their predictions.

With no clear direction being established either way on the predictions front, careful consideration of all of your options and the potential for something unexpected might be the best way forward.

Thank you for reading and if you wish to learn more, please do not hesitate to contact me directly to discuss in more detail.

Jonathan Watson

[email protected]

What to expect from GBP exchange rates in 2023?

By
Joe Wright
-
GBP EUR: Halifax Sees Signs of Housing Slowdown

Looking back on 2022, GBP exchange rates had one of the most volatile years on record especially against the US Dollar.

After such a bumpy ride for the Pound you may expect to see less volatility for GBP exchange rates but with economic growth set to drop this can never be ruled out, especially at the beginning of the year.

To recap 2022, GBP/USD experienced its worst annual performance since 2016 which was an exceptional year owing to the unexpected Brexit vote which caught the currency markets off guard. GBP/USD also hit its lowest level in history last year when the pair almost traded as low as parity when cable (GBP/USD) dropped to 1.0350 in early September.

There were major falls for GBP exchange rates around this time due to the disastrous Mini-Budget. At the time Liz Truss was Prime Minister and Kwasi Kwarteng were the Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer with both having been replaced since. These changes (Rishi Sunak is now PM and Jeremy Hunt is the Chancellor of the Exchequer) have been welcomed by financial markets but the UK’s problems are far from over.

Sentiment towards the UK coming into 2022 had been positive as the Bank of England was the first major central bank to hike interest rates has inflation was steadily rising towards the end of 2021.

Inflation is now a very hot topic as the current rate exceeds 10% which is over five times that of the Bank of England’s target rate of 2%. This is forcing the BoE to hike interest rates to counter the increasing inflation levels, but this comes at a time of a cost-of-living crises and a prolonged recession being forecasted so 2023 could be another busy year for the Pound.

I predict that how the UK economy performs with year along with global sentiment is likely to influence the Pounds value moving forward. Improvements in global sentiment often boosts the Pounds value, and vice-versa.

Should you wish to discuss and plan a currency exchange involving the Pound, or any other major currency for that matter, please feel free to get in touch with me for insights and competitive exchange rates. We can also set up rate alerts for you too. You can contact me directly (Joe) at [email protected]

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