Stronger week for the pound, will it continue? Getting the best deal on your foreign exchange (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling exchange rates have a had a stronegr end to the week continuing in from Wednesday’s strong surge. On Wednesday the Bank of England minutes indicated that the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committe (MPC) of the central bank all voted to keep on hold quantitative easing (QE), leaving levels at £375bn for now. This came as a big surprise to the market particularly as June’s meeting was a 6-3 split – with three members voting to extend. Has Mark Carney’s influence as the new governor of the Bank of England already taken over? For me I can see this as an opportunity for those looking at buying currencies such as the Euro, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar and feel there may well be further opportunities for these currencies. For those buying US dollars the 4 cent shift seen in the last week should be viewed as a real opportunity as for me cable rates (GBP/USD) will fall back to 1.50 and below as the FED is likley to continue, in my opinion, with the tapering down of QE.

Should you be buying the aforementioned EUR, AUD and NZD then I would suggest holding on for now as I still feel there will be opportunities to buy at 1.17 on GBP/AUR, 1.66 GBP/AUD and 1.92/93 on GBP/NZD. For me I am still amazed how strong the Euro has remained as the underlining problems in Europe still seem to be brushed under the carpet on a far to regular basis. It also highlights to me how investors are focusing on the pound and the reaction in particular to low interest rates as the data sets in the UK seem to be improving but unfortunatley sterling is not. For me I think it is a matter of time before the pound sees a continued show of strength against the Euro and would hope to see levels back up towards 1.17/18 soon, for this reason anyone selling Euros may wish to look at their positions whilst rates are still offering strong value.

Like against the Euro I believe more value will be seen against the Aussie and Kiwi. I would look for further rate cuts and concerns from the respective central banks over the strength of their currencies to devalue the AUD and NZD and would look to hold on should you be buying these currencies.

To discuss the market conditions in more detail or should you have a transaction to arrange then please do not hesitate to contact me. As a specialist foreign exchange broker we have a number of contracts available to help clients avoid unwanted market volatility removing your exposure to any adverse market movement. If you would like to see what we can do for you and the potential savings we can make then contact the office on +44 (0)1494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling Exchange Rates Fly after Mark Carney Speech (James Lovick)

The pound has seen an excellent day across the board creating lots of opportunities for those clients looking to buy other currencies. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney surprised the markets this afternoon when he stated that there may need to be some removal of monetary policy. Rates for GBP USD saw an excellent spike in excess of 1% and taking levels back over 1.29 for this pair. GBP EUR has been more muted although ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments have created some uncertainty for Euro exchange rates after some backtracking on comments earlier in the week.

Thursday however sees the vote on the Queens speech which should see additional volatility for the pound. This speech should conclude the general election flop almost three weeks ago and the pound could fine some renewed support on the back of it, assuming it all goes through. There could be political fireworks though considering Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is looking to make an amendment to the Queens speech and will try and vote it down.

Realistically though the UK Prime Minister Theresa May should find the support she needs with the backing of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). In this outcome the pound in my view should see a rally as a degree of confidence is restored after the hung parliament. Those clients looking to move out of sterling could see some excellent buy opportunities. Please get in touch and we can try to help time any future currency exchanges. Developments from Westminster should see a material gain for the pound and considering GBP AUD has broken 1.70 once again there may be more room in this rally.

Those clients selling Euros or Australian dollars in particular may wish to consider taking the risk out of the volatile currency markets.

If you would like further information on sterling exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Euro rates and when will the Bank of England change monetary policy? (Tom Holian)

The Pound saw its biggest daily gains in the months during Thursday’s trading session when the Bank of England confirmed that they were keeping interest rates on hold. Out of the 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee 8 voted to keep rates on hold.

Personally this did not come as a surprise as I think owing to the recent change in leadership with Theresa May becoming Prime Minister this week any change in policy could have caused further unnecessary volatility for the Pound which had just started to recover agains both the US Dollar and the Euro.

Next month however could be more likely that some form of monetary easing could take place. Bank of England governor Mark Carney has already been quoted saying ‘some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer.’

Indeed, the minutes of the meeting stated that ‘most members of the Committee expected monetary policy to be loosened in August.’

I fully expect the Bank of England to introduce further Quantitative Easing next month but the question will be how much?

The central bank has already pumped in a total of £375bn into the markets and whenever they have brought it in it has weakened the Pound.

With the political landscape a little bit more certain in the UK this could help the Pound recover from its recent lows vs the Euro.

Next week the focus turns well and truly back to economic data when the UK announces the latest Consumer Price Index which is a measure of UK inflation levels. The expectation is for 0.4% year on year so anything less could reinforce the need to either cut interest rates or add further QE at next month’s meeting due to take place on 4th August.

If you’re worried about what may happen to exchange rates over the next few weeks and you need to either buy or sell Euros it may be worth considering buying a forward contract which allows you to secure an exchange rate for the future.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Sterling currency movements today – Pound forecast against Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar and South African Rand GBP,EUR,USD,AUD,NZD,CAD and ZAR (Daniel Wright)

Supreme Court to Decide Whether Proroguing of Parliament is Lawful

Sterling Exchange Rates today and what to expect tomorrow

Sterling – Euro          

A busy day for GBP/EUR today as interest rate decisions were released from both the Bank of England and European Central Bank, along with a press conference from head of the ECB Mario Draghi.

Neither rate decision really threw up any huge surprises however the press conference over the course of the afternoon did lead to quite a jittery market. Draghi once again reconfirmed his statement from last month that he feels the Euro is irreversible, and this coupled with the news that Spanish bonds were still remaining fairly steady ensured that the Euro is still holding firm against the Pound.

With little data out today for the U.K and indeed the Eurozone I would expect rates to remain fairly range bound of the course of today unless we hear of any progression with the almost certain pending Spanish bailout. If you look back at the week for both currencies then personally I feel the Euro has nudged it so might strengthen again slightly today.

Sterling – Dollar

Today at 13:30pm we have Non-Farm Payroll Data followed by the U.S unemployment rate. Non-farm payroll data can lead to a volatile end to the week as analyst’s projections can be quite a way out leading to a sharp and rapid market correction so if you have a transaction to carry out involving Dollars contact your account manager here this morning so that he can keep you full informed on market movements 0800 328 5884  With a little confidence once again installed into the market from the ECB yesterday the Dollar weakened away a little again. A strange week all in all for this paring as Australian data earlier in the week had ruffled investors feathers and pushed them back to the safer shores of the Dollar (with GBP/USD creeping below 1.61 again) but now it appears markets are ready to push down hard on the risk button again.

 

Sterling – Australian Dollar

The Aussie has indeed taken a bit of a bashing this week following a slightly surprising cut in interest rates on Tuesday and poor trade balance figures on Wednesday, The Australian economy is still performing fairly solidly however it does seem to appear the strong AUD is starting to weigh Australia down so personally I feel that we may see this rate improve a little further to round off the week.

 

 

Sterling – New Zealand Dollar

Comments made by the Finance minister in New Zealand about the effect of the strong Kiwi Dollar slowly damaging their economy have led to the NZD also having a troubled week. FX intervention has been ruled out so do not expect any major moves in the near term however personally I would not be surprised to see GBP/NZD continue the charge back towards 2.

 

 

 

Sterling – South African Rand

The Rand is on the ropes again after a wave of strikes across the country even outside of the mining industry, threatening a huge industrial crisis and absolutely knocking confidence in the Rand for six.

Personally I would not be surprised to see this escalate further and I feel the Rand may be in for a rocky ride for at least the next few months, there may be traces back as things settle temporarily but until this complicated issue is unwound the ZAR will find it hard to fight back.

 

Sterling – Canadian Dollar

Tomorrow we see the release of unemployment figures from Canada and the Pound had been edging towards the 1.60 mark this week.

The Canadian Dollar does rely heavily on Commodity prices however unless unemployment figures throw up a surprise I do not see a huge movement for this pairing which has been range bound for some time now.

GBPEUR Forecast for this week

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

The UK’s General Election and any resolution in Greece would indicate the Euro stages a recovery. However Euro sellers should not expect major improvements since the problems in the Eurozone are deeply rooted, I think that any ‘solution’ will as always be a short term fix with the problems likely to resurface down the line.

As well as Greece there is key GBP news tomorrow!

Tomorrow’s Inflation data is significant since lately it has presented good opportunities to buy the pound.12 separate pieces of Inflation data will be released indicating the rate of which prices are rising (or falling). I personally expect the pound might decline as the Inflation data shows a decline too, this would indicate any interest rate hike is not so urgent. Getting the best deal is achieved through a careful mix of analysing the data and being able to react quickly. For assistance with any money transfers you might wish to consider please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

GBPEUR levels falling, but is now the time to buy?

GBPEUR levels have been falling recently for a number of reasons but it is safe to say that the shine has come of the Pound. A number of factors have resulted in this impact on the currency market, these include:

  • The IMF confirming forecasts that the UK’s growth will slow next year
  • The IMF reiterating that there is a 40% chance of a double dipp recession
  • Commentry form the Bank of England pushing back forecasts on when interezt rates will climb in the UK, pushing them back
  • UK economic data not meeting expectaions
  • European data reducing the risk of de-faltion

We have seen rates drop by nearly 2 cents compared to only a week ago. Saying that however if you ignore the last 2 weeks current levels still represent the highest levels to buy the Euro for over a year.

This all suggests that the current level is still an opportunity to buy and with concerns building about the future for the UK many have still been taking full advantage.

If you would like more information on the factos above, the timing of a trade or our live prices feel free to contact myself directly at hse@currencies.co.uk

Look forward to hearing from you,

Steve

GBPEUR rates tumble under 1.20 – STEVE EAKINS

Steve Eakins
Steve Eakins

Today the central banks both side of the channel released their respective interest rates and policy updates.  No news came from either bank however there was a large expectation that the Europeans where going to release new policies in an effort to combat their lowering inflation.  This expectation had been priced into the market and with nothing actually changing this had to be corrected meaning euro strength was seen.  The inter-bank price is now under 1.20, a level that took over 8 months to break last year.  Concerns are building that as a result we could see levels drop considerably more over the next few weeks.

UK Data has been very impressive over the last few months and many expect this month’s data to go back to more “traditional” levels. This means that even though they are good growth expected as a result of them being at a slower pace than we saw last month the value of the Pound will probably fall.  We also have the UK Quarterly inflation report on Wednesday, this will probably re-confirm that interest rates in the UK will not change until next year.  All in all it really looks like the bubble has truly popped for the GBPEUR rates.  People buying the single currency should really consider trading at these current levels, accepting that they are lower than the last few weeks but equally remembering that they are considerably higher than the average seen through 2013.

If you would like to be kept up to date with breaking news please get in contact – email me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk for a free quotation.

 

Greece and the Euro, Yellen and the Dollar – What happened today and how will the market react?

Supreme Court to Decide Whether Proroguing of Parliament is Lawful

Greeks gain a provisional agreement

The on-going Greek saga appears to be set to continue for at least a few months as this afternoon we saw a provisional agreement confirmed by the Eurogroup. They have agreed to proceed with national procedures with a view to reaching a final decision on the extension which may be up to four months.

This agreement had little effect on Euro exchange rates as it had been widely expected for the past few days.

The next question really is how do I see the Sterling/Euro exchange rate moving in the coming weeks following this announcement? One of the main reasons the Euro has weakened over the past six weeks or so has been down to uncertainty, which has been heightened by the media hype and constant coverage over Greece. In essence the problem has not gone away it has merely been delayed for a few months.

The fact though that it has been essentially swept under the carpet could see the Euro slowly creep back a little and personally a move back below 1.34 would not be a great surprise to me.

Mario Draghi is set to speak later today at 15:30pm in a quiet day for economic data destined to be focused on Greece once again.

If you have a currency requirement in the near future and are happy with current buying levels (7 year high) then there is a great option available to you known as a forward contract. This useful contract option allows you to lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to a year in advance, paying merely a small deposit initially and then the balance on or before whichever date has been agreed, this is absolutely vita if you are working to a fairly tight budget. If you feel this may be of use to you or you just want to see how I can help with any currency transaction in terms of getting you a better rate and level of service then please feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to explain how this handy market tool works.

 Janet Yellen’s Comments give us little to work off of

Janet Yellen (Head of the Federal Reserve) testified yesterday and had many questions thrown at her surrounding interest rate hikes and when we may start to see them for America.

The main comments to pull from a long conference were that she insisted that the Fed should not be chained to decisions and that although the U.S recovery is on solid ground, there are still concerns surrounding inflation and the labour market which is not yet fully healed.

Yellen mentioned that she could not see a hike for the next two meetings which pushes us back until at least May and could lead to a little Dollar weakness in the coming days and push back above the 1.55 level. If you are looking to either buy or sell Dollars in the near term and you want to achieve the very best rate along with a highly efficient service then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back in touch personally.

How are the ECB and FED impacting Sterling exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

Many speculators yesterday (Thursday) were surprised by the European Central Bank’s decision to only extend its monthly €60m Quantitative Easing program by 6 months, as the forecasts were for tougher measures.

Throughout Mario Draghi’s press conference he exclaimed the bond-buying programme is working well and the 6-month extension is sufficient to combat inflation and get it back towards the 2% target.

In recent weeks the ECB members and Mario Draghi have repeatedly indicated big changes were going to be made however I believe they have overpromised and quite simply under delivered.

As for the currency markets, immediately a mass buy of Euros occurred and the Euro made over a 3-cent gain against Sterling in the matter of minutes.

The next major economic event to look out for is the US interest rate decision on the 16th of December. In recent weeks Janet Yelen, Chairwoman of the FED, has insinuated that a hike is on the horizon however the hike wil only occur if the economic data supports it. With Non Farm payroll numbers (jobs created in the US) exceeding expectation today, this should signal a rate rise will occur and good signs for any clients holding onto USD.

However, as we have already seen this week nothing is definite in the currency markets and if you are buying or selling Euros or dollars within the next 6 months, the decision on the 16th is going to have an impact on the exchange rate you receive.

Not only do we offer award winning exchange rates, we also have the tools to minimise your exposure to the market in the form of limit orders and stop losses. For further information regarding limit orders and stop losses email me directly on drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer and you would like further information regarding a specific currency pair (GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD etc). Feel free to email me with the currency pair and your individual requirement (buying a property abroad, paying a company invoice) and I will personally respond to you with a forecast and the buying process. drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call 0044 1494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

AND FINALLY IF YOU WOULD SIMPLY LIKE A COMPARISON AGAINST YOUR CURRENT PROVIDER FEEL FREE TO EMAIL ME WITH THE EXACT FIGURES!! THIS TAKES 30 SECONDS AND COULD SAVE YOU THOUSANDS!! 

Sterling hits 16 month high against the Euro – Dropped away a little this morning

The Pound has followed its good run of form against most major currencies in trading yesterday morning following exceedingly positive Retail Sales figures and reasonably positive comments from the Bank of England – Pushing us close to a 16 month high to buy Euros and into positive territory for the day against all major currencies.

We did see the rates creep back a little this morning after a little worse than expected Public Sector Net Borrowing figures for the U.K. On a positive note the GDP revision came out as expected so growth figures are still fairly solid.

With such a great run of form for Sterling it would be a shame to let this opportunity slip away, so if you are looking to buy foreign currency with the Pound either now or in the near future then it may be prudent to look at securing at least a proportion of the amount you are looking to buy, so that if it does slip back away you do not end up losing out.

To buy €100,000 now compared to just a few weeks ago is around £1500 cheaper which could pay for a lot.

Should you wish to take advantage of these exceptional rates today feel free to email me directly or call me on the number below.

If you have a requirement in the future but you do not yet have the full availability of funds you can book out a forward contract. This is where you can book a rate out for up to a year in advance with just a small deposit, removing the risk of the currency market making your purchase any more expensive in the future.

This is ideal if you are in the process of buying a property overseas as you can know exactly how much the property is going to cost you today and eliminate the risk of the Pound dropping away again and missing out on this great opportunity.

I look forward to speaking with you if you have any questions or queries or you would like to book out a rate of exchange. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk

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