Will this sterling rally continue? More often than not it is the greedy who get their fingers burnt… GBPEUR, GBPCAD 1 month high, GBPUSD 2 month high, GBPAUD close to 3 yr high, make sure you do not miss out!

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

The pound has had one of the most impressive spikes in the last week. Ever since Mark Carney tied the raising of interest rates to Unemployment traders have been backing sterling as they anticipate an interest hike in the none too distant future. This is however at odds with what the Bank itself has said and whilst there is definitely scope for further improvements on sterling exchange rates, I do expect them to fall back at some point too. We have been here so many times in the last few years and whilst the data is definitely better, the key issues of public and government debt have not been addressed. Many are questioning the sustainability of the recent good news attributing the ‘improvements’ in the economy (house prices and consumer spending) to further debt fueled growth measures which will ultimately come back to bite…

However you view the current pick up, there is no denying the improvements on the exchange rates. GBPEUR and GBPCAD are at 1 month highs, GBPUSD is a 2 month high and GBPAUD is close to a 3 yr high. Rates on GBPNZD,GBPZAR and many others are all up at some the best levels in recent years and are significant improvements on rates of a few months ago. If you are weighing up a currency exchange and wish to be kept up to speed on where your pairing is headed so you don’t miss out, please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

If you are considering selling the pound to buy a foreign currency in the coming weeks I strongly suggest you take stock of current levels to avoid disappointment. That is not to say you should enter the market right now (although that may well prove to be the best course of action) but that I would not expect the rally of late to continue too much longer. (For a proper discussion of your situation please contact me personally).

The currency markets are moving literally every second and daily swings can be well over one cent, sometimes two. This may not sound like much but on larger volumes of currency of say one or two hundred thousand pounds it makes a huge difference. Buying €250,000 with pounds last Wednesday would have cost £218340.61. That same purchase of €250,000 today would cost £212765.96, a £5500 saving!

When buying currency there are a huge range of options and different prices available which on those larger sums can save or lose you thousands. As a specialist currency broker for the UK’s largest independent brokerage we offer a specialist service to assist you in the safe, speedy transmission of money internationally at commercial exchange rates significantly better than those available through typical bank transactions.

If you would like to discuss the market and all of the options available you can speak with me Jonathan by either calling 01494 787 478 or if you prefer just email jmw@currencies.co.uk and we can go from there.

Sterling exchange rates 2014 – A look back at what has happened (Daniel Wright)

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

Euro

2014 was generally a fairly good year for the Pound against most major currencies with the most notable gain of 6.02% against the Euro. This has made buying a €150,000 property in France or Spain over £7500 cheaper which is a huge help towards fees other associated costs, if you have been considering buying a property within the Eurozone over the past few years then with lower house prices and higher rates of exchange 2015 could be the year for you to make that jump.

The main driver behind this movement appears to have been both ever improving economic data for the U.K and the fact that Mario Draghi (Head of the European Central bank) has had to make many fiscal changes most notably interest rate cuts. There has also been talk of a QE program coming into place for the ECB in the coming months so there is still a little potential for the Euro slide to continue.

Dollar

The largest loss of 2015 for Sterling against major currencies was against the Dollar dropping 6.11% or gaining those looking to sell USD an extra £3,750 per $100,000 exchanged.

The main movements from the Dollar were towards the back end of this year as the U.S became the front runner in the race to raise interest rates next year along with being first to bring a close to their QE program.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has been a funny old character over the course of 2014 remaining fairly strong throughout the first half of the year then taking a real bashing in the past couple of months.

There are a couple of reasons behind the recent Australian Dollar weakness with the first being a clear slowdown over in China (China is a key purchaser of raw materials from Australia) and also down to the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) hammering home the fact that they would like a weaker Australian Dollar.

Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens does appear to change his mind like the wind regarding the strength of the Australian Dollar but it appears now he has finally settled on the fact that the strength of the AUD is damaging the Australian economy and a move to make it a little weaker cannot be ruled out in the coming months.

Canadian Dollar

Sterling has made solid gains against the Canadian Dollar as the Canadian economy has started to drop off a little along with low oil prices and a poor economic outlook. Major analysts currently believe that the ‘loonie’ still has further to fall next year and that the Bank of Canada may lower growth forecasts which may weaken the CAD further in early 2015.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc has been one of the more stable currencies throughout the year however Sterling has still managed gains of 3.95% during the course of 2015. Usually perceived as a safe haven currency the Swiss Franc has dropped off a little towards the end of the year as we have concerns surrounding what we may see the SNB (Swiss National Bank) do next regarding their artificial pegging of 1.20 against the Euro.

Holding this level is becoming increasingly difficult and a move to introduce negative interest rates in December was the latest bid to weaken the CHF. Personally I see the start of 2015 continuing the range bound trend but do be prepared for a surprise move from the SNB to weaken the CHF further at any point in the near future.

South African Rand

The South African Rand has always been a particularly volatile currency and this year certainly has not been any different. With strikes slowing economic output and the economy seriously floundering I feel that a move towards a buying price of 20 could be a distinct possibility unless major changes are made.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in 2015 involving any of these currencies then it may be prudent to get in contact with me directly as I can achieve you not only award winning exchange rates but also award winning customer service.

Feel free to email me personally (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk if you feel I may be of assistance to you and I will be more than happy to call you personally.

Happy new year!

U.K retail sales for January much better than expected – Sterling strength however pulled back by downward revision for December

Good morning all,

U.K retail sales for January were released this morning and led to Sterling strength against all majors, this strength was however kind of pinned back as Decembers retail sales were actually revised down and appear to be even worse than the poor figure we saw last month.

This kind of morning shows the beauty of having a limit order in place – we saw a short spike for Sterling and then it has slightly dropped away again, I would not be surprised to see a positive Friday afternoon for the Pound though, however our good friend Mervyn King is due to speak later on, famous for dropping the markets as soon as he says a word over the past few years!

Personally I think we are not a million miles away from the 1.20 mark against the Euro, it appears Portugal are slowly coming to the forefront of things again and may be looking at a bailout, the overnight borrowing by the ECB was huge and the worst since June 2009.

Keep your eyes peeled, I would look to sell Euros rapidly if you are in the process of doing so, or book out a forward contract should your house sale be going through at present.

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If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Sterling Exchange Rates Improve following Carney’s comments (Tom Holian)

Flash crash sinks Pound to US Dollar rates

Following the speech by Mark Carney yesterday we have seen exchange rates for Sterling improve across the board. The comments made by the Bank of England Governor including him saying a ‘renewed recovery is taking hold’ however its pace will be ‘more measured than rapid.’ The rhetoric that has generally come from Carney has been positive for Sterling and as he removes uncertainty for investors if the positive comments continue to come out we could see further Sterling improvements.

Unemployment will still need to fall below 7% in order for the Bank of England to increase interest rates but Carney also mentioned that he thinks this level is unlikely to be reached unless mid 2015 at the earliest previously expected not to happen until 2016.

Sterling has recovered against the Euro during this week from its 3 week low seen during Tuesday’s morning session. If you would like to take advantage of these current GBPEUR levels then feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

During times of geopolitical instability investors will look to safe havens to store their money which often includes both US Dollar and the Swiss Franc which have both strengthened against the Pound during this week. Discussions are still taking place about what will happen next in Syria and if we see any further advances we could see further strengthening for both USD & CHF.

Sterling has recently had a very good period against the Canadian Dollar gaining over 5% against the Loonie during August. However, since the talks around Syria we have seen the CAD strengthen back by 2% against the Pound. One of the main reasons is that Canada is a net exporter of oil and if oil prices rise then this often helps to strengthen the CAD$.

If you would like to make a currency transfer and want to get the best exchange rates please get in touch Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Best Rates of Exchange – When to Buy Euros? Andrew Bromley

Flash crash sinks Pound to US Dollar rates

Stirling Weakens on Carney Comments

The Pound had a rocky road yesterday as following good Unemployment data, GBP EUR spiked to provide short buying window whilst the market was over 1.28, close to the 2 1/2 year highs. However, GBP was bought back to earth with a bump following Bank of England Governor Mark Carneys speech on the associated inflation report. Carney indicated that as inflation is sitting at a near 5 year low (1.2%), an interest rate increase this side of summer is not going to happen. With the General Election next year, it is my opinion that if the economy warrants it, we will not see an increase until either November or December 2015. This address weakened Sterling to the early 1.27 mark, with today opening up even lower at the 1.2650 region. Those buying Euros may be wise to take advantage of the rates before we potentially see GBP EUR keep sliding down from its spike, potentially to the 1.24 region.

USD The Performing Economy?

USD sellers will be happy to see that we are at a 14 month low GBP USD. Selling below 1.60 was an unrealistic expectation until the Fed decided to finish its bond buying process (Quantitative Easing). The US economy seems to have gone from strength to strength in the last two weeks, and may continue to push GBP back to the 1.55 region and below. USD sellers may want to get their exchange done and take advantage of the low rates, with buyers scratching their heads as to whether or not the Pound will bounce back? My opinion is that Sterling will not push back over 1.60 for the short term, potentially not even until the new year.

Swiss Franc – Sell Now??

On 30th November the Swiss National Bank meets to agree on its next move to support its economy. It has been written on this site previously that there is a ‘peg’ linking EUR and CHF at 1.20. The market is only just above this level, which if breached (a drop below 1.20) would mean the SNB would have to act to support its economy. The SNB believe that CHF has been overvalued for an extended period of time, and it has affected Swiss Businesses ability to compete with potentially falsely expensive stock. There is a good chance that the SNB will weaken CHF substantially, with most currencies to make immediate gains. If you are selling CHF, I would be strongly inclined to get funds exchanged prior to 30th November to eliminate the chance of a substantial loss!

Please do feel free to drop me a line if you are looking to act on any of these currencies.

The direct line to the trading floor is 01494 787 478 or email me ajb@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Important day for the Pound – Trade balance and key inflation figures

Good morning readers,

A quick post this morning as I can see a busy day in the office, this morning at 09:30am brings key inflationary data which could be critical as to what the Bank of England do next with interest rates.

Although high inflation appears to be a global problem, should figures come out higher than expected then I still believe we will see Sterling strength and an increased possibility of a rate hike in the U.K sooner rather than later, for those who are not aware a rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned and markets move on rumour as well as fact.

Couple this with Trade Balance figures coming out at the same time and it does lead to an eventful morning, last time out the Trade Balance was worse than expected and should this happen again  we may see this hold back any Sterling strength.

The other side of the coin this morning is that if inflation is lower than last month and appears to be naturally dropping we may see Sterling weakness as it reduces the need for a rate hike.

Expected is 4.4% for CPI and personally although the day has started off with weakness for the Pound I feel we will be up by the end of the day against most majors, however you never know…..

Sterling exchange rates improving as markets await expected rate hike, where to next for the Pound? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have opened up this morning with few exceptions, as financial markets await an interest rate hike from the Bank of England later this week.

Recent polls have suggested that there is over an 80% chance of an interest rate hike this week, and previously BoE governor Mark Carney has alluded to the move along with other members of the BoE’s monetary policy committee.

A common term within the financial markets that you may of heard of recently is ‘priced in’. Many economists believe the hike from the BoE has been priced in which is why Sterling has climbed, and I have to agree.

In terms of Sterling’s value I’m not expecting to see the Pound climb by much value at all if the rate change goes ahead, but I do think that if it doesn’t go ahead which is looking unlikely now, there could be a big downward move for the Pound across the board of major currency pairs.

The decision will take place on Thursday at 12pm and as soon as the decision has been made their will be the BoE Minutes, which is a full account of the policy decision. I think there could be a lot of movement around that time so if you’re planning on making a currency exchange involving the Pound, it’s worth getting in touch to discuss it and plan around this event.

There are also other news releases this week that could impact Sterling exchange rates, as the data will cover how the UK economy is performing across different sectors.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

China Still a cause for Concern for the Global Economy (Daniel Johnson)

China’s growth figures has showed a 10 month consecutive decline. He have seen mass stock sell offs. RBS confounded the problem by telling there Clients to sell everything. Sterling has strengthened against some of the commodity based currencies this morning such as AUD and NZD due to their heavy reliance on export to the Chinese. The Pound has however fallen significantly against the Dollar and Euro over the last few weeks due to the USD interest rate stance and Carry Trading. The question is will this decline continue? Sterling’s place in the market is becoming particularly complex and any trade requires careful consideration. Should the trade be done in tranches? What is the time scale? Can you afford to wait?

I have a wealth of experience in currency trading and I will be happy to assist with your currency requirements, during these times of uncertainty it is more important than ever to speak to an experienced currency broker. If you have a currency requirement on the horizon I will be happy to assist by both helping you time your trade and getting you as close to the Interbank rate as possible. I can guarantee to beat any competitors rate of exchange. If you would like to get in touch please do not hesitate to call me on 01494 787 478 or e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk .

New to Pound Sterling Forecast – Putting a face to a name! Sterling flat today – Retail sales tomorrow

GBP to USD rates weaken after Theresa May statement last night
Daniel Wright
Daniel Wright

After five years of keeping clients up to date with foreign exchange market movements on this site I decided it was time that our 40,000 regular readers should be able to put a face to a name.

All of our authors have many years experience in the foreign exchange markets and we pride ourselves on giving you the very best of market information day in day out and I hope you find the site of use.

If you do and you have a currency transfer to carry out either now or in the near future then it may be prudent to get in touch with me directly – You can email me on  djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back to you personally.

The market has been fairly quiet in trading today unless you are looking to buy Australian Dollars, if so we have seen another nice shift in your favour following employment figures coming out a little worse than expected overnight. Unemployment came out at 5.8% as expected however the employment chnge figures came out at -22,900 instead of the expected positive figure of 7,500.

With market moving on speculation as well as fact you can see large and rapid movements if economic data comes out a way off of expectations and that is exactly what we saw here.

Tomorrow morning we have retail sales figures for the U.K at 09:30am which will wrap up the week for a fairly ok week of economic data for the U.K. Personally I would not be surprised to see this have a positive effect on the value of the Pound however do be a little wary of it as figure from major retailers over the festive season were a bit of a mixed bunch.

Please do feel free to get in touch if you would like any assistance or to compare an exchange rate against your bank or another currency broker. djw@currencies.co.uk

U.K inflation data weakens Sterling in morning trading (Daniel Wright)

GBP to USD rates: Sterling is boosted by hopes of a no-deal Brexit being avoided

Inflation data released this morning for the U.K has led to a drop in the value of the Pound as figures came out much lower than expectations.

The worry was that inflation figures may have dropped off a little however the actual figure released was a lot lower than had been predicted.

Lower inflation will lead to the potential of an interest rate hike being put back a little further and an interest rate hike generally is seen as positive for the currency concerned and with the markets moving on speculation as well as firm economic releases.

We have also seen the Euro weaken off lately and the reason for this is extremely low inflation figures leading to the risk of deflation, one of the ways they are looking at to combat this is by introducing QE (Quantitative Easing) which as many regular readers will know generally is seen as very negative for the currency concerned as it is essentially printing more money and injecting it into the economy.

We still have quite a busy week ahead with a few interesting points of note including unemployment figures for the U.K tomorrow (predicted to have improved to 6.1%) and U.S Retail sales figures tomorrow afternoon. For those with an interest in the Euro you should be aware of President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaking at 8:00am tomorrow morning which could move Euro exchange rates in advance of trading lines opening.

if you have a currency transfer to carry out in the coming  days, weeks or indeed months then it may be prudent to contact me directly as the company I work for has not only won awards for our exchange rates but also our customer service. You can contact me directly on  Djw@currencies.co.uk please leave a contact number and a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be happy to get in touch.

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