Exchange Rate Forecast – USD Forecast – Currency News ( Andrew Bromley )

Brexit news: Is a move below 1.10 for GBP/EUR realistic

Greece Making The Headlines Again

German Chancellor Angela Merkel met yesterday evening with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to discuss the Greek Debt. It is clear that even though extension to certain bailout payments have been granted, Greece is still struggling financially and is pulling out even the most drastic measures to change that. There are on-going reports that With the Greek Bailout situation potentially back in the limelight, Euro buyers should ensure that they are watching their position.

 

GBP Exchange Rate Forecast

UK Factory Orders yesterday showed a reduction to the lowest figure for 24 months, confirming fears that exports are starting to struggle. The main factor for the reduced figures is the strong pound over the weak Euro, meaning Eurozone partners are being priced out of the market. Factory output is currently reported as being at 2008 levels – a serious cause for concern.  We have seen in the past the BOE (Bank of England) act swiftly to boost export opportunities by ‘talking down’ the value of Sterling. I therefore wouldn’t be surprised to see Mark Carney (BOE Governor) make this move sooner rather than later to bring the Pound down – potentially in his address on Friday at 08:45. UK ‘Consumer Price Index’ (Inflation) figures are released at 09:30 today and again a slight reduction is expected. Inflation is moving further and further from the target of 2.0%. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound weaken due to the impact of lower Oil prices, so ensure that you are ready to act swiftly if you haven’t already!

The overwhelming point to consider for anyone holding Sterling is that we are about to enter potentially the most volatile trading period for 5 years. The UK General Election is wide open with an outcome incredibly hard to predict. A hung parliament is a distinct possibility – the last hung-parliament carried huge losses for the Pound. Parliament is set to break for ‘recess’ on Monday 30th March, so expect the Politicians to then hit the campaign trail with vengeance!

 

Australian Dollars at Record Short Term Lows

The Aussie has seen a huge backing following the US Dollar weakening this weekend. As the old saying goes, ‘When the US sneezes, the World catches a cold’, very definitely the case here. US Dollar investors will buy Australian Dollar bonds as the potential returns are greater, meaning the influx of funds strengthens the currency. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia have stated on several occasions that they will act to avoid the currency becoming overvalued, generally by cutting Interest Rates. Therefore, if you are selling AUD I’d do so sooner father than later. If you’re buying, get in contact to make sure that you are ready to take advantage of a spike…

USD Forecast – What to Expect for the Rest of the Week

Following last week’s bold move in to the mid-1.40s, Dollar buyers have had a slight improvement. Janet Yellen (Chair of the US Federal Reserve) stated that, ‘Policy makers aren’t rushing to raise Interest rates’.  This has subsequently seen the Dollar lose the gains made, and puts a big focus on to data releases this week. This afternoon the US releases Inflation data (12:30) and tomorrow afternoon Durable goods figures (also 12:30). The week is capped off on Friday afternoon with the US Gross Domestic Product figure so all in all still a very busy week for the Greenback.

 

New Zealand Dollar – When will we see 2.0 again?

The New Zealand Dollar has seen a huge improvement over the last 30 day (as noted in the above table), gaining back roughly 10 Cents against the Pound. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced on 12th March that Interest rates were not going to be cut on this occasion, and more recently a primary Kiwi Bank (NAB) have been very ‘bullish’ in their Exchange Rate forecast. NAB has indicated that due to good returns harvested from investing in NZD, the NZ Dollar should have a period of strength. However, this should be seen as a window, rather than the norm. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler has the power to halt a rampant Kiwi Dollar by cutting Interest Rates so I don’t think it will be too long until a return north of the 2.0 mark is seen. If you are Selling Kiwi it may be worth making a move…

Please feel free to contact me direct to the trading floor on 01494 787 478 – please quote this blog and ask for me – Andrew Bromley. Alternatively, email me on AJB@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Are you about to buy currency through a bank or broker soon? Will this sterling rally continue?

Just lately we have seen sterling spike which is obviously some excellent news. The big question I am being asked is will it last? I personally would not be surprised to see the the pound continue to be supported with all this good news but I would warn those considering selling sterling holding out for significant improvements to beware.

The key thing to look at is how is how Mark Carney and the MPC have laid out lower interest rates until 2016. This is likely to be a major drag on the pound and is leaving the door open to further QE. I would be very surprised if in the current global economic climate with the Eurozone economies still struggling we don’t see further pressure put on the UK economy. Mervyn King famously talked of the ‘zig zag’ recovery and I think the current trend higher whilst to be wholly welcomed will not be sustainable.

I think therefore if you are buying a foreign currency with sterling now or in the coming weeks this spike is well worth seriously considering. Even if you do not have full availability of funds you can book a rate with us for a small deposit.

Are you about to buy currency through a bank or broker soon? I have today done a number of currency deals for people who wrote to me via this and our sister sites and was able to offer them all savings versus their current provider. If you are considering a currency exchange soon and would like to explore getting a better rate and service, please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to me Jonathan.

UK Unemployment Falls leading to Sterling Strength (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates have fallen from levels of 1.28 in the last fortnight into the 1.25 region following a period  of weak data for the UK economy and also Sterling.

Yesterday’s UK inflation data was alarmingly low compared to the expectation which means the Bank of England is less likely to raise interest rates any time soon. An interest rate rise would typically strengthen the Pound and this data has caused Sterling to weaken.

However, all is not lost as this morning UK unemployment has shown a big fall and now below 2 million which is very good news for the British economy.

According to the Office for National Statistics the unemployment rate has now reached 6% and the lowest level since 2008. Now there are over 30 million people in work in the UK. With Eurozone unemployment above 12% at the moment this news has helped Sterling regain some of its recent losses against the Euro.

If you have a currency requirement to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

The Calm after the Storm (Daniel Johnson)

US/China trade war escalates

After “Black Monday” it seems some sanity has returned to the markets. The Global Economy is far too reliant on the Chinese. Growth figures are down considerably for China which is having a huge impact. Particularly on New Zealand and Australia who are heavily dependent on raw material export to the Chinese. We are now seeing new record highs for GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD.

Although we are now seeing some stability, I think there is still a massive risk to Global Markets with a slump in Chinese growth, It could well be the tip of the iceberg. I read in some detail of deep issues caused by shadow banking and fraudulent export data coming out of China. Their figures could well be distorted and now we could be starting to see the cost of this distortion. The race to become the world’s largest economy could take its toll on everyone. Question is are they too big to fail?

Each individual currency requirement at the moment requires serious thought and knowledge of the economic climate. This is when an experienced Currency Broker can really help to maximize your trade.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me on dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

Best Exchange Rates for Sterling vs Euro since credit crunch (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates hit their highest level since mid 2007 this week when the credit crunch went into full swing.

With the Eurozone now having fully implemented their first round of Quantitative Easing to the tune of EUR1.1tn until September 2016 this has had a huge weakening effect on the Euro vs Sterling.

Earlier this week the UK announced its lowest trade deficit for almost 2 years which added to the strength of Sterling.

With the US Dollar at record highs against the Euro this has seen huge Dollar strength which often results in Euro weakness providing excellent opportunities to buy Euros with Sterling.

The ongoing uncertainty of the Greek talks is causing instability and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has criticised the slow pace of progress in talks over Greece’s debt.

The Greek issue which has been in the headlines for the past few months has caused the Euro to lose strength and the problems with Eurozone inflation are continuing.

ECB President Mario Draghi is due to address the markets on Monday afternoon which is likely to cause volatility for Sterling Euro exchange rates.

Tuesday is arguably the most important day for GBPEUR rates with the release of both Eurozone inflation as well as unemployment data.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

A week of interest ahead – Interest rate decisions due for Australia (AUD) New Zealand (NZD) U.K (GBP) EMU (EUR) Canada (CAD)

Pound to US Dollar forecast Bets increase on 50 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed What could happen to GBPUSD?

Well, we could be faced with an extremely volatile week ahead with the amount of interest rate decisions we have due out and with the discussions that will follow prior to them.

First up is Australia, they release their interest rate decision overnight on Tuesday night followed by a monetary policy statement shortly afterwards, for the last few months speculation has been rife over whether or not the RBA will cut rates and on this occasion rates are expected to stay on hold. High interest rates generally make a currency more attractive and this is one of the factors that have kept the AUD strong over the past two years.

It would not surprise me to see a shock on this one, either a surprise cut in rates or a fairly interesting monetary policy statement shortly afterwards, personally I feel that should this happen we could see much better rates for buying Australian Dollars by the end of the week.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as very positive for the currency concerned and a cut in rates is seen as a negative, and the currency markets do move on rumour as well as fact, therefore even the mention of a rate cut in the future may lead to Australian Dollar weakness.

Next up is New Zealand on Wednesday night U.K time – no change is expected here however with the current global situation always expect the unexpected!

The U.K steps up on Thursday at midday, any change in interest rates would be front page news so I highly doubt we will see that, however any more QE (Quantitative Easing) could lead to Sterling weakness accross the board as we saw following the Bank of England minutes last Wednesday.

Europe is shortly after at 12:45pm and no change to rates is expected but watch out for the press conference in the afternoon, this might give indications as to current economic performance and plans to tackle certain issues inclusive of Greece which always turns a few heads in the investment world!

Finally, two releases on Friday with the Canadian Interest rate decision, i’m afraid no major shocks expected here, and the Non Farm Payroll data for the States – this can be as big a market mover as a change in interest rates as the predictions in adbvance can be wildly wrong – also this tends to affect all major currencies depending on the release.

If you have an upcoming transfer involving any of these currencies or indeed any other major currency and want me to be the eyes and ears on the market for you, then contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk leaving a brief description of your requirement and a contact telephone number and I shall be happy to help.

GBPEUR Inflation summary – Buying Euros – Selling Euros – STEVE EAKINS

Yesterday we had what was scheduled to be the busiest day of the month for the Pound.  However it was hugely over shadowed by the Interest Rate cut in Europe last week. We did however see quite a change in the fortunes in the Pound yesterday following the release of UK Unemployment and the Quarterly Inflation Report.  This is when the bank of England gives an update on the UK economic performance and forecasts along with views on when potential change to policy will happen.  Focus is very much on the expected date when Interest Rates in the UK will start to climb.
The summary from yesterdays activity include:
  • Upbeat Bank of England as they increase growth forecast for 2013 to 1.6%, 2.6% for 2014.
  • Record numbers now in work as unemployment rate falls to four-year low
  • Interest rates to potentiallly change as soon as the end of 2014.
  • 1.4million are in part-time work but want a full-time job, ONS says
  • David Cameron says figures are proof government’s plan is working

As a result of the above rates have climbed for the UK by nearly a cent against a basket of currencies. A welcome boost for GBPUSD transfers as on Wednesday this had reached a near 2 month LOW. GBPEUR rates are now within a cent of the highest seen in 10 months and remain well over the year average of 1.17.

This however is not the end of the data for this week. Later today we have UK Retail figures and on Friday European Data, both of which could change makes once again.  My view/ I expect GBPEUR rates to climb a little further before the weeks end and finish closer to 1.20 again.  This I expect to be the highest and therefore the most attractive time to buy the single currency for the remainder of the month.  Euro sellers may want to hold their nerve and wait for better levels next week….

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – STEVE EAKINS – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at hse@currencies.co.uk

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Exchange Rate Forecast – Euro GBP US Dollar ( Andrew Bromley )

Pound to US dollar forecast: an important week for UK Prime Minister Theresa May

The Euro has strengthened today on more positive economic news for the single currency. Yesterday saw an improvement in the Eurozone unemployment figure, and todays improved German Retail Sales figures have helped the Euro further. Following what seems to have been bad news after bad news, the Euro was due a slight improvement. The improvement has been just that – slight! Many market analysts had predicted an improvement of several cents for the Euro, following the announcement of a Greek bailout. Once the bailout was confirmed to be not forthcoming, and to eventually be replaced by a deferment to repayment dates, the markets have adjusted and seem to be heading towards 1.40 rather than 1.30.

I personally feel that levels will stay between 1.3650 and 1.3775 for the short to medium term, prior to potential Pound weakness from the UK General Election. This years General Election is set to be the most open election for many years, with currently no clear party taking favour. If you have an exchange requirement between now and May, you may want to make contact before the market goes berserk!

US Dollar – The Week Ahead

The Greenback regained some of its strength towards the back end of last week, as following her meeting with US Congress, Head of the Fed Janet Yellen was eventually positive again about a US Interest Rate hike. Interest rates are a very goo indicator to the strength of an economy, so the positivity toward an increase subsequently strengthened USD again. I personally feel that we will see the 1.50 levels again as the Pound weakens in the build up to the UK General Election, so US Dollar buyers may wish to ready themselves. This week the US release their ‘Beige Book’ (an economic overview) and US Non Farm Payrolls are out Friday afternoon. This is followed by US Unemployment so the close of the week will be where the action is!

Those buying or selling with GBP should also be wary primarily of Thursdays UK Interest Rate decision. Although no change is expected, it will be very interesting (and potentially market moving) to see if there is any deviation from the Monetary Policy Committee on their thoughts…

If you do have a currency requirement, please feel free to get in contact on 01494 787 478 – please ensure that you ask for Andrew Bromley and quote this blog – that will ensure access to unbeatable exchange rates! Alternatively, drop me an email to AJB@currencies.co.uk – I’ll be in touch with a response.

All Eyes on Wednesday’s UK Unemployment Figures & BoE Minutes (Matthew Vassallo)

Brexit news: Is a move below 1.10 for GBP/EUR realistic

 

Matt vassallo
Matt Vassallo

With very little data out this week for the UK, all eyes will be fixed on the release of Wednesday’s UK unemployment figures and the Bank of England (BoE) minutes. The BoE minutes give us a key insight into their recent policy meeting and often can be used as a guide to prospective changes in interest rates, or whether we are likely to see further rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE).

With talk of a prospective interest hike starting to dominate the headlines, the release of this weeks minutes carry even more weight. Any indication that this may occur soon, is likely to cause additional market volatility for GBP exchange rates as the markets will view this as a positive for the UK economy. However, there is still a concern in some quarters that an interest rate hike could cause the UK economic recovery process to stagnate, if wage increases are not above the 1.8% predicted. This indicates that a rate hike does not necessarily guarantee a return to economic health and if you do have an upcoming GBP/EUR requirement, it is important to be reactive to on-going market developments.

GBP/USD exchange rates have continued to hold firm between 1.64-1.65. We had seen the USD start to claw back some ground, only for last Friday’s UK Retail Sales figures to halt its progress, along with poor US unemployment figures.

It is unusual to see Cable rates stay above 1.60 for such a sustained period and because of this I still feel there is a lot of scope for USD strength moving forward. Whilst it is impossible to predict exactly when this improvement may occur, I believe the markets are waiting until the new incoming FED Governor Janet Yellen before we see the next decisive move.

I still feel GBP/USD rates will head back below 1.60 in the not too distant future and because of this the current levels on GBP/USD still look very attractive.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or would like to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively you can call one of our experienced brokers on 0044 1494 787 478.

 

Southern Hemisphere Currency Warning!!!

We have seen a decent spike for the pound over the last week or so against the southern hemisphere currencies. This morning sterling exchange rates are trading up at 1.5855 against the Aussie Dollar, 2.0960 against the Kiwi Dollar and 13.00 against the South African Rand.

However clients who need to buy AUD, NZD or ZAR need to be acutely aware of how the problems in the Eurozone are affecting your exchange rates.

Traditionally the higher rates of interest offered in these countries means that investors who are getting a poor return on their savings in areas such as the UK, the Eurozone and even the US buy significant volumes with the aim of holding them and benefiting from the greater interest paid out (known as carry trading) – supply and demand means that the more people looking to buy a currency  the more expensive it gets – a trend we have seen since the financial crisis began 3 years ago and worldwide interest rates were slashed.

This trend is reversed when we see major political or economic upheaval as investors sell their Southern Hemisphere Currencies and repatriate their funds for a short period of time until things “settle down again” – this causes a huge drop in demand and we get an exchange rate spike such as we saw in the middle of August, the end of September and during November so far.

With Greece, Italy and Spain putting new Governments in place over the last week and things are again “settling down” I would expect to see demand for these high yielding currencies go up and hence exchange rates for sterling weaken slightly. Now by no means is this a science and there a huge number of other contributing factors but this is a pattern that we have seen time and time again – If you have a need for any of these currencies now may be a key time to secure your funds either on a spot or forward contract.  Make sure you keep me aware on bma@currencies.co.uk so I can continue to act as your eyes and ears into the world’s most volatile market. Let me know what your requirement is and we can assess the markets and decide when may be a key time to secure your currency.

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