Pound Sterling Euro Forecast on the way down (Tom Holian)

GBP USD Exchange Rate Bounces Off Yet Another Two-Year Low

Sterling Euro exchange rates have this week hit the lowest levels to buy Euros since February 2015.

This is great news for anyone looking to sell Euros but bad news for anyone looking to exchange Sterling into Euros.

Yesterday the Pound dropped after UK industrial output fell in November which was the biggest monthly fall for 3 years.

Manufacturing data has also seen a sharp fall and I think this is the knock on effect of Sterling being so strong for much of 2015.

British exporters have clearly felt the impact of a strong Sterling and this recent fall for the Pound is probably welcome to them.

Last week Chancellor George Osborne stated that the UK economy is in for a difficult year and that falling oil prices could see further negative impact for the UK owing to our reliance on the North Sea oil industry.

The impact of the recent flooding has been estimated at £1.3bn and this could also have a detrimental effect on the British economy and ultimately harm Sterling exchange rates.

With the Brexit argument gathering momentum this is also causing weakness for Sterling.

Indeed, looking back at both the Scottish Referendum and general election both saw GBPEUR rates drop by 5 cents in the run up to the events. It was only until we knew the outcome that we saw Sterling fight back vs the Euro.

Tomorrow the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decision and with an 8-1 split in favour of keeping interest rates on hold if we see this change to a 9-0 vote this could further weaken Sterling vs both the Euro and the US Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian [email protected]

Alternatively call me directly on 01494-787478 and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Could Sterling break past 1.20 against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

There are a huge number of economic data releases which are likely to impact what happens between Sterling and the Euro next week.

The European Central Bank confirmed on Thursday that they would be keeping interest rates on hold as well as keeping the current format of QE in place until March 2017.

The news briefly helped to strengthen the Euro vs Sterling but next week sees the release of both UK and Eurozone inflation.

Part of the reasons for the introduction of QE for the Eurozone was to combat falling inflation but currently inflation on the continent is at just 0.2% which is worryingly low.

UK inflation is likely to increase since the Brexit and we will know the figures on Tuesday.

German inflation data is also published on Tuesday and as the powerhouse of Europe any falls could put pressure on the ECB next month and we could see further evidence on Thursday when the Eurozone releases inflation.

My prediction is that we could see the Euro weaken during the course of next week and on Thursday the Bank of England will announce their own monetary policy decision.

Personally I don’t think we’ll see any change to policy but the comments from Bank of England governor will be key to how Sterling may perform next week.

If there is a chance of Sterling breaking past 1.20 vs the Euro then Thursday could be the day for it to possibly happen.

The economic data since the Brexit has recently proved to be better than expected and this has helped the recent rally for Sterling.

Therefore, this is why I think Carney could be rather bullish on Thursday and this could help Sterling increase against the Euro. If you need to buy Euros then Thursday could provide you with the opportunity.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian [email protected]

 

 

GBP-EUR Best Rates – 1.39 on the Markets! (Joshua Privett)

GBP USD Slips Ahead of BoE Rate Decision

A stable morning for currency rates was interrupted by a continued rally for Sterling throughout the afternoon. By the close of trading today we had finally settled down into the low 1.39’s. A combination of positive inflation data and poor business sentiment data concerning the EU economy was enough to send rates soaring in the favour of Euro buyers, almost testing the boundaries of 1.40 once more.

For those looking to sell Euros, today was another dissapointment after what has been an excrutiating wait for a Greek decision. Recently rates have stagnated as a result of the same stagnation in Greek debt negotiations. The only reason a deal has not yet been reached is because Greece was allowed to lump their re-payments for June together until later in the month. So naturally they will use this extra time to delay reaching an agreement, using the extra time to try and reduce their total debt pile and achieve the best possible position in the cirumstances. A rational reaction. Once a deal is reached, the rates will finally slump down after being propped up by a potential ‘grexit’ for so long. The only question is by how much?

This is largely answered by the 6 cent movement a few weeks ago in the space of 7 trading days down to 1.34 when we were on the brink of a deal. Expect similar movements when the talks are undertaken in earnest again.

We are so close to 1.40 that those waiting for the rates to creep that little bit higher to achieve 1.40 as a target are putting themselves at risk to a much greater lost than any gain possible in the current market climate.

*Data Watch* Tomorrow will be a signifcant day for data releases in the Eurozone, UK and US economy, expect significant volatility in all three currencies. Monetary policy statements will be read for the UK and US, which means the rates will be changing over a prolonged period throughout the day. This makes it very important that you have someone watching the rates and the releases on your behalf so that buying or selling opportunities are not missed, and that damage control can be undertaken before rates ‘tumble’ with any surprises announced. Email me overnight on [email protected] to discuss how you can take advantage of day where such voluminous data releases are rare!

Will Sterling’s rally vs the Euro and US Dollar continue? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have started to witness a recovery since falling to close to their lowest point in three years following the impact of the Brexit.

Economic data that is now being published since the vote to leave the European Union has not been as bad as expected and indeed UK consumer confidence is back to its best level since 2013 which has been reflected in Sterling Euro exchange rates.

Yesterday’s UK GDP data came out as anticipated with levels for the previous quarter at 0.6% which helped to provide Sterling with strength vs the single currency.

As we go into next week following the Bank Holiday the focus will return back to the Eurozone with the release of Industrial and Consumer confidence as well as German inflation data on Tuesday morning.

It will be interesting to watch out for this data as this could also provide support for the Pound if the results show a slowdown on the continent and a fall in confidence.

UK manufacturing data published earlier in the week showed levels back to the best in 2 years which demonstrates that the impact of the Brexit vote was not as bad as expected.

My view is that we could see Sterling continue to rise against the Euro as only 2 months ago we were over 10% better on GBPEUR rates and owing to the Brexit this is the main reason why rates have fallen by so much.

However, it appears as though the economy hasn’t struggled too badly since the vote and this could support the Pound vs the Euro and arguably also against the US Dollar.

Therefore, if you’re thinking about selling Euros to buy Sterling it may be worth looking at making a purchase before the Pound recovers against the single currency.

If you’re in the process of selling a property abroad and want to secure an exchange rate for a future date then it may be worth considering buying a forward contract, which means you know exactly what Sterling you will receive once your property has sold.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian [email protected]

[contact-form to=’[email protected]’ subject=’PSF 27/8/16′][contact-field label=’Name’ type=’name’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Email’ type=’email’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Phone Number’ type=’text’ required=’1’/][/contact-form]

 

 

Mario Draghi and the ECB send the markets into overdrive (Dayle Littlejohn)

Yesterday the European Central Bank and the President Mario Draghi sent the markets into overdrive. The European Central Bank confirmed at 12.45 they would be cutting the Interest Rate from 0.05 to 0% and the deposit rate from -0.3% to -0.4%. Further to this the ECB confirmed they would be adding an additional €20bn each month to the Quantitative Easing program.

This led to investors selling off their Euro positions to buy other currencies which would lead to higher returns on their investments.

Sterling made significant gains against the Euro however lost ground against safe haven currencies such as the USD and commodity currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollar.

45 minutes later President of the European Central bank surprisingly shocked the market with his bullish comments. Mr Draghi confirmed the ECB would not need to make further cuts and painted a positive picture in regards to the economy as a whole.

This led to speculative traders revering their trades and investing back into the Euro. The Pound therefore plummeted against the Euro however made gains against the USD and commodity currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollar.

It just shows how important it is to have a broker working on your behalf when buying currency for a property or to pay company invoices for example. If you had managed to purchase Euros at the high point compared to the levels we saw after Mr Draghi’s press conference, you would have saved just under £4,000 on a €200,000 purchase.

My area of expertise is for clients that are looking to purchase a foreign currency with the Pound for a property purchase. It’s important to analyse both currencies, for example GBPEUR / GBPUSD, therefore if you would like to be regularly updated and receive the best possible rate email me with the currency pair and your requirement and I will email you directly with my forecast and the process of using our company [email protected]. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call me on 01494-787478 and ask for Dayle Littlejohn.

How will the General Election impact Sterling Exchange rates?

How big an impact will the General Election be on sterling exchange rates? It could turn out to be quite a big issue as there is so much uncertainty as to the outcome. We generally expect the pound to fall in the run up to the election before rising after. Quite how much it will rise or fall is of course impossible to predict but I would not rule out movements of up to 5 cents in either direction.

You can protect yourself and capitalise from such volatility by utilising one of our many contract options:

  • Spot

Once the rate is fixed you need to get the money to us within a few working days. We arrange onward payment to the specified beneficiary oce all your funds have cleared. Internationally funds are sent via SWIFT – the fastest international payment method. Please contact me Jonathan on [email protected] to learn more!

  • Forward

When you want a fixed exchange rate for up to 1 year.

You pay a small deposit to fix the exchange rate. Once the contract is agreed, regardless of market fluctuations, you know exactly how much currency you are buying. Perfect if you want to budget and protect yourself from market volatility.

  • Limit

When you have a target exchange rate and timing isn’t crucial

Placing a Limit Order means that when the market moves to your specified rate, our system automatically purchases your currency, letting us work as your eyes and ears in the market.

  • Stop

When you don’t want to trade below a certain exchange rate and timing is not crucial

You choose a lower limit on the price at which you are willing to buy. If the market drops to that level, you are guaranteed that you will get an exchange rate no lower than the one you specified.

I offer a personal service to highlight market movements and trends which might affect your rate as well. Even though you might not need to buy currency just yet please register so that we have a fully operational trading facility and I can quote live prices for you.

Making no plans and just hoping your rate will magically go up is one of the most common and costly mistakes clients make on foreign exchange payments. For more information on getting the best deals and making sure you know everything that please contact Jonathan on [email protected]

The Pound, Bank stress tests, and a wild end to the week (Joshua Privett)

GBP USD Picks Itself Up Off the Floor

Yesterday’s evening result for the European Bank stress tests, a wildely anticipated event for the past few weeks, caused a lack of consensus on the Pound’s value – the first such occassion I have ever seen.

The XE trading app, which many of our regular readers may have on their mobiles went bonkers after the results came out on Friday evening at 9pm. With only American markets still open to trade on the news for a further hour, it seems that the flurry of activity within the final hour before close of play at the weekend caused the some confusion on the value of European currencies.

Seeing my phone flash up with 1.21+ on GBP/EUR, 1.35+ on GBP/USD, and 1.78+ on GBP/AUD all of a sudden was amazing and frankly unbelievable. Unfortunatley for anyone considering buying a foreign currency, it was.

The rates on XE have since deflated, and were likely a mistake – to the frustration of many who would have had automatic buy orders in should any particular levels be reached. Other websites show that rates never got anywhere close to what was shown at XE, and the Pound was actually lower following the results.

So what actually happened?

The results showed a mixed bag. The Eurozone had some of the worst performers, which was expected given the recent news focussed on Italian Banks and their potential debt crisis.

The UK performed relatively well, with only really RBS showing some concerning results. The stress tests show how a Bank would be able to cope in a sudden recession as one example. RBS’s capital fell by 7.5 percentage points, the third lowest of the 51 banks tested.

The results have greater significance for the UK, given that the likelihood of a recession has increased followin the Brexit vote. And with 73% of RBS owned by the taxpayer, having the spotlight on them for a poor result was slightly more concerning for the Pound.

As a result, the Pound was down against most major currencies, except for the Dollar which itself suffered at the end of the week due to lower than expected growth forecasts for the US.

With the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday, this mixed bag of data makes it difficult to know if an intervention will be needed – either in the form of a rate cut or QE, both of which would harm the Pound’s value.

The Bank of England’s remarks to the news was that the results for Barclays, HSBC and Lloyds were ‘consistent with those of previous Bank of England stress tests.

With this overall stable picture will the bank feel the need to intervene? I think it has now become less likely. The bank now has breathing room to wait until their meeting in September before having to consider such drastic action.

As such, Euro and Dollar sellers may be seeing some of the more opportune selling rates evaporate ahead of Thursday’s decision.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an AUD/GBP, EUR/GBP or USD/GBP requirement should contact me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on [email protected] to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Sterling return.

There are options through a currency exchange broker which enable you to manage your risk and seize any highs which emerge on the markets within a timeframe of your choosing.

Those using Sterling to buy a foreign currency can also get in contact to discuss how to manage the market ahead of the decision on Thursday.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer.

 

Why is the Pound losing value at the moment, and will it continue? (Joseph Wright)

GBP EUR Edges Higher After Recent Rates Sell-Off

Brexit jitters are continuing to weigh on the Pounds value, with the currency losing a substantial amount of value over the past week across the board of major currency pairs.

Currency markets were already weary of the Pounds future price movements as we await the outcome of the Supreme Courts impending decision on whether or no the UK Government requires parliamentary approval before beginning the Brexit.

These fears were exacerbated over the past weekend as a much talked about interview offered the marketplace an insight into the UK PM’s plans for the Brexit. UK Prime Minister, Theresa May alluded to prioritising the control of immigration, as opposed to focusing on retaining the UK’s access to the single market.

Moreover, May commented that the UK cannot keep ‘bits’ of EU membership and this comment has fueled the fire of bearishness towards the Pound at the moment.

It’s for these reasons that we’ve seen the Pound soften over the week, and the sell-off accelerated this afternoon after May announced that she will be giving another major speech on her Brexit plans on Tuesday of next week.

I personally think that the Supreme Court decision will have been announced by then, so there’s a possibility we could see a lot of volatility between GBP exchange rates between now and then.

Until then, I think that anyone with a currency exchange requirement involving the Pound should pay close attention to the Supreme Court decision. The likelihood is that if the Government is successful in their appeal we can expect to see the Pound fall further, as the Government plans on invoking Article 50 at the end of March and there polices generally lean towards a ‘Hard Brexit’.

On the other hand if they’re unsuccessful the general consensus is that the Pound could get a lift. Feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept up to date with the outcome of the Supreme Court’s decision, as of yet we have no definitive time as to when this announcement will be made.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on [email protected] in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also speak to me directly on the phone by calling 01494 787 478 and asking reception to speak with Joe.

Pound to Euro rate tests 1.15

Will GBP/EUR Rates Rise or Fall Ahead?

1.15 has been a key resistance point for over 18 months and Pound to Euro rate is currently testing 1.15 again. Having had a chat with fellow traders this morning it seems I may be alone with my current view. Many of the guys here believe 1.15 will be breached and Sterling will continue to climb, I am not so convinced.

Is there justification for the Pound’s rise in value?

Ask yourself what is the justification behind Sterling’s strength? It is difficult, the current reasoning is due to a potential extension to Article 50 and the apparent drop in probability of a no deal Brexit. Does this really justify the Pound making significant gains against the majority of major currencies?

Morgan Stanley believes there is now less than a 5% chance of a no deal Brexit, but if we look at the current situation is that really the case? By rumours spreading that a no deal is now less likely it puts Theresa May in a terrible position to negotiate. A no deal Brexit scenario is practically the only ammunition she has. Brussels knows this.

Theresa May tried to push through her Brexit deal in December and it was delayed due to a lack of confidence in the deal going through Parliament. Her intention was to go back to Brussels to renegotiate better terms. European Commission President, Jean Claude Junker has stated there will be no changes to the current deal and Mrs May was stonewalled.

If May is now in a weaker position why would Junker now make concessions? It does seem that the majority of parliament are ‘remainers’ so the odds are stacked against May anyway.

The extension seems pointless unless Junker changes his tune or we are preparing for a no deal.

It is a farce. I would be surprised to see the Pound to Euro rate breach 1.16. If I was buying Euros I would be looking to take advantage of current levels. I would be wary of being overly optimistic, every time GBP/EUR has moved into the 1.15s in the last 18 months it has quickly retracted.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted directly by using the form below:


GBP/EUR rates: Expect Investors Risk Appetite for the Pound to be Driven by Tomorrow’s Commons Brexit Vote

Pound Euro Exchange Rate: Risk of Volatility on No Deal Brexit

Anyone with a short-term GBP/EUR currency requirement should be keeping a close eye on market developments this week.

I’m expecting increased volatility, especially during the early part of the trading week, as the markets gear up for a set of key Parliamentary votes on Brexit. Tomorrow night MPs will vote for a second time on Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the EU.

The PM is hoping that she will be able to convince the EU to make concessions on the Irish border backstop, which is proving to be MPs’ primary concern with the current deal. As many as 15 amendments are due to be put forward by MPs, with a second referendum and an extension to Article 50 the most notable.

The Pound’s recent rise was attributed for the most part due to the chances of a no deal scenario fading. However, whilst nothing is signed or confirmed, we must consider that any failure to get an extension to Article 50, could increase the chances of this dramatically.

GBP/EUR rates – what’s next?

GBP made impressive gains against its EUR counterpart throughout last week’s trading, with it becoming clear that investors risk appetite for the Pound was being driven by the chances of deal or no deal scenario with the EU. It must also be noted that Sterling’s rise was also facilitated by a growing lack of confidence in the Eurozone economy, with its three linchpins, Germany, France and Italy all facing economic slowdowns and political unrest.

Where GBP/EUR rates go from here will much depend on how the markets view the results of this week’s key House of Commons vote. A cross-party section of MPs are trying to push for an extension to Article 50 of up to 6 months, which it must be noted is not what the PM is looking for. Theresa May is still hoping to push through her deal, with a few amendments by the March 29th deadline.

With time fast running out, expect the markets to be driven by media perception and Parliamentary developments regarding the key aspects of any prospective Brexit deal.

For more news on GBP/EUR rates please feel free to use the form below to ask me a question. I’ll be happy to respond personally and answer your query.


Recent Posts

None of the information contained in this website constitutes, nor should be construed as financial advice. It should not be interpreted as a solicitation to offer to buy or sell any currency or as a recommendation to trade.

Where interbank exchange rates are referenced within the website these should only be used as a guide on the performance of a market. These rates are not indicative of our exchange rates – please contact us for a quote.