Sterling Exchange Rates after House of Commons Historic Vote (James Lovick)

The pound has seen an excellent boost across most of the major currencies with rates climbing over 1% against the Euro yesterday and a similar movement higher again this morning for this pair. Rates for GBP EUR are sitting at 1.1750 with 1.18 firmly in sight whilst GBP USD has also seen a boost with rates trying to break through 1.26 for this pair.

Why is the pound strengthening?

Politics appears to be the main driving force for the pound once again. The historic vote in the House of Commons last night where 498 MP’s voted in favour of invoking Article 50 and 114 voted against has changed the Brexit dynamics. It now means that Article 50 will be going ahead and that everything should go through on time with an expected date sometime in March for exit negotiations to officially begin. Although the pound is making some headway now it would be unwise to expect this trend to continue with the biggest decision facing Britain for the last 50 odd years.

No one has ever left the EU before! This in itself would suggest a period of expected volatility for sterling exchange rates across the board.
A white paper is being published today which will give even more clarity as to the shape of Brexit and there could be some currency shocks as the markets react to the news. It will probably be a very entertaining day in the House of Commons.

Furthermore the Bank of England quarterly inflation report and interest rate decision are announced today and the general consensus is that both growth and inflation are expected to be revised higher in the central banks forecasts. This has the potential to be a big market mover and any rhetoric from Mark Carney that would suggest interest rates could be rising sooner could see the pound rally well today. I am of the opinion that Mark Carney will be upbeat about Britain’s prospects and there is a good chance the pound may rally.

So there you have it, another very big day on the markets with considerable volatility expected today for the pound!

If you would like further information on sterling exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

The Euro zone affects on the pound, US Dollar and Swiss Franc

Since my last post sterling exchange rates have reversed the losses that we had seen against the Euro. The European Central Bank did raise interest rates but we witnessed the pound strengthen into the early 1.12’s. It seems that the markets were expecting the 0.25% rise so we did not see the Euro push closer to the 1.10 level.

Today we saw the pound rise to 1.1360 as contagion is now starting t spread to other European countries. Italy seems to be the next country on the radar but markets are worried that Spain could be the next. I feel that the range bound for the Euro over the coming weeks will be between 1.1150-1.1450.

As European markets continue to be dragged through the mud the USD and CHF seems to be the winners. The pound weakened against both currencies today hitting close to an all time low of 1.3290 against the Swiss Franc and 1.59 against the greenback. Looking forward if Euro zone debt worries continue the pound could mover closer to 1.55 than 1.60 verses the USD.

Their will be lots of good opportunities no matter what currency you wish to purchase. If you wish to discuss any future currency exchange I can offer numerous types of contracts from forward contracts to stop loss and limit orders to try and achieve you more currency for less. Please feel free to call me on 0044 1494 787 474 ask for Ben Amrany and quote Poundsterlingforecast.com or email me at bma@currencies.co.uk








The Pound Could have a hard morning this morning – Bank of England minutes, GDP data and mortgage approvals all at 09:30am!

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound take a bit of a hit today as it sees three key data releases at once this morning.

Firstly, BOE minutes are released and with growing speculation and calls for further Quantitative Easing in the U.K (generally seen as negative for the Pound) the minutes will show how many members of the BOE voted in favour of (or against) more QE – An increase to the amount of positive vtes compared to last time will signal we are closer to seeing more QE and with the markets moving on rumour as well as fact this could dent the Pound.

On top of this, following numerous growth forecast downgrades last year we have GDP figures for the fourth quarter of last year, they are actually predicted to show a contraction which actually might work in the Pounds favour as if we come out with no growth or positive growth it could counter act the QE as it would be seen as much more positive than expectations, however if we do see negative growth then we are officially half way to a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) and may drop rapidly today.

Mortgage approvals are the third of the trio today, in all honesty I think these may be overshadowed by the other two releases, all in all my personal opinion if this could be a hard morning for the Pound overall.

If you have an upcoming transfer to make, join the hundreds of people that have contact me directly through this site and found that I have got them a much better price than their current bank or broker…. Feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a contact number and what you are looking to do and I shall be happy to get in touch.

A Volatile Week for the Pound (Matthew Vassallo)

The US launch a significant stimulus package to stem the economic impact of the Coronavirus pandemic

It’s been a volatile week for GBP, with uncertainty surrounding the Scottish referendum having a negative impact on the Pound. We started the week with news of a poll that had the vote at 51% in favour of Scottish independence and this sent the markets into panic mode, with GBP/EUR rates dropping by over a cent. Since then we have heard mixed opinions from various figureheads but it does seem as if the initial poll was distorted and in fact the No vote was still the preference of the majority.

GBP/EUR rates are now reflecting this opinion, with a move back towards 1.26 during yesterday’s trading. We’ve also heard from Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark carney this week, who indicated we may see an interest rate hike in the UK by Spring 2015. This is the first time he has given a specific timeframe and this news also helped to support Sterling recovery, from the early week losses against both the EUR & USD.

GBP/USD rates have also seen a number of spikes this week with the USD still holding firm in the low 1.60’s, as it continues to realign itself against GBP after a rocky few months. It now seems inevitable that we will see GBP/USD head back below 1,60 on the exchange and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this before the end of the year.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on mtv@currencies.co.uk

UK GDP Figures as Expected But Where Next for the Pound?(Matthew Vassallo)

It has been a fairly flat day on the markets with little movement for the Pound against the other major currencies. All eyes were on the release of this morning’s UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures but despite the anticipation the figures were in line with expectations. Although Sterling levels remained fairly flat throughout the day, the figures did reinforce the view that the UK economy is indeed continuing along the road to economic recovery.

Whilst the UK economy is improving we have seen small loses against both the EUR and the USD. GBP/EUR rates have now dropped back towards the 1.17 level, with the EUR being boosted yesterday following news that Spain was no longer in recession. Whilst GBP/EUR levels are still trading above year average thought of 1.20 on the pair before the end of the year are starting to evaporate and as I alluded to in previous posts I did feel it was more likely we would see a move down towards the current levels, rather than a move up through 1.20. I believe the Bank of England (BoE) will be keen to avoid Sterling moving to high for fear of alienating the Eurozone (our largest trade partners) even further.

Although we have seen a small loss for GBP against the USD today rates are still putting pressure on 1.62, providing some of the best buying opportunities of the year. I do believe we will see a turnaround sooner rather than later, so I would be tempted to consider my position if I had upcoming GBP/USD transfer to make.

GBP/AUD rates have looked solid over the past week, with the AUD gaining support following news from China that their economic growth had improved for quarter three of this year. As I have alluded to previously the Australian economy is heavily reliant on its export industry and with China’s the world’s second largest economy, their heavy demand for Australia’s raw materials has boosted the Australian economy over the past few years and allowed the AUD to move up against most of the other major currencies during this period. Whilst I do not think we will see the AUD return to the highs we witnessed at the beginning of the year, I think GBP will struggle to breach 1.70 based on current market conditions.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or are just interested in a rate comparison with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively you can call one of our experienced team on 0044 1494 787 478.

Sterling Forecast – Buying Euros – Selling Euros – STEVE EAKINS

GBPEUR rates have stayed range bound this last fortnight between 1.17-1.1850.  Quite a small range compared to earlier this month however it still accounts for €3,000 more when timed correctly on a £200,000 purchase so not something to be ignored.  This week however we do expect more movement with the potential for SPIKES both tomorrow and Friday. Potentially rates could reach up again towards 1.19 if we are lucky however probably only for the smallest of periods.  As a result if you are trading this week and would like to be notified of SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS please email me your interest, contact details and targets and I will register you here.

The reason for the movements that are expected this week is due to two pieces of large economic data due from the UK. The first is the Bank of England minutes released tomorrow and on Friday a revised GDP figure. The Bank of England (BOE) minutes give us more information on the thoughts and plans of the Monetary policy Committee who are the nine members of the BOE who vote on any policy change.  Last week there was a view we would see nothing exciting from the group but following interviews in the papers over the weekend from a few members there could be the potential for a change in the forecast of future interest rate change.  A key member who spoke to the BBC said that “interest rates have plenty of room to go up before affecting the economy.” This I think was taken out of context by the media however if we see that a few members of the MPC voted for a increase it would dramatically change the forecast for change and therefore result in Sterling Strength.  On the other hand we could see no change from last month’s 9-0 vote and no change to the currency market as a result.

On Friday morning we have the UK GDP figures, these are expected to be revised up meaning the economy is getting stronger and therefore the Pound could gain in value.  My personal view is that there is such a large expectation that the potential gains will actually be priced into the market before the release meaning that if you are selling the Pound to buy another currency; whether it be EUROS, USD or any other, you may get the best price before the release at 9:30. To summarise we could get the best price this week buying funds on Friday morning before the actual data release.

Other wild card topics that could affect markets this week include: European Meeting which starts on Thursday for the whole weekend, US data releases and more politician commentary about interest rate change before the BOE minutes tomorrow.  So if you have a currency transfer to make and are looking for the best price, time and service please contact us.  We have over 2000 unique visitors daily so if you are someone that visits and never gets in contact, what have you got to lose?

Contact the author by email on hse@currencies.co.uk

Regards,

Steve Eakins

View Steve Eakins's profile on LinkedIn

 

Sterling has a bad day against all major currencies – Article 50 announcement leads to sell off (Daniel Wright)

Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBPUSD Continues Upward Trend but for How Long?

The Pound started off the week on the back foot against all majors today following the announcement over the weekend from number 10 that we the U.K would have invoked article 50 by the end of March 2017.

It does appear that Britain may be heading for a ‘hard brexit’ which may be more focused on controlling immigration and law over being involved in the single market.

This news has been taken badly by investors and speculators and this has indeed led to the Pound dropping away and well and truly falling out of fashion.

On top of this we also have an increased probability that we may see further stimulus from the Bank of England which also is seen as a negative for the Pound too.

A lot now really hangs on how economic data comes out in the next week or so as we start to see the release of data from September.

U.K Construction data is released tomorrow morning followed by data from the services sector on Wednesday, both have quite an impact on the overall growth figures for the U.K economy so may set the scene for the coming weeks.

I actually still feel that the result of the referendum has not hit as hard as many had thought it would so I would be surprised to see anything dramatically terrible but it would still be sensible to keep a keen eye on the markets at 09:30am over the next two days.

On top of this we have the RBA interest rate decision overnight tonight and the Deutsche Bank issue which is sure to remain ongoing.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out either imminently or in the coming weeks then it is essential that you use an experienced currency broker that will help you every step of the way. I have helped thousands of people in your position and even those that thought they were getting an unbeatable rate elsewhere were surprised that they could actually make a saving by speaking with me.

Feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

 

Sterling Forecast – Brexit Sentiment Continues to Drive Sterling’s Value (Matthew Vassallo)

Pound to Canadian Dollar forecast Brexit remains in Limbo

The Pound has been fairly well supported of late, buoyed by reports indicating a potential breakthrough in Brexit negotiations.

This good feeling was a continuation of recent trends, with the Bank of England (BoE) indicating that they may be looking to raise interest rates earlier than many had anticipated.

This helped to boost investor confidence in the Pound, which up until last week had made inroads against a majority of the major currencies. GBP/EUR rates spiked towards 1.14, whilst GBP/USD moved back above 1.41 last week.

It seems as though investors have now factored in much of these positive rumours into Sterling’s current value but whether we see a further increase this week is certainly debatable.

Despite this recent improvement, if we scratch below the surface all is not well behind the scenes. Reports of splintered Tory government are not new but this story now seems to be gathering momentum. UK Prime Minister Theresa May was very bullish in her recent public address and her behind closed door meeting with senior Conservative MP’s last week was meant to be a success.

However, this seems now not to be the case following a report in the Times, which indicated three separate cabinet ministers warned May that the current government could collapse this year. Tory rebels could look to back Labours plans for full membership of the customs union, once the UK finally separates itself from the single bloc.

This goes against the PM’s current stance and as such, investors may not react positively to her speech on Friday even if she remains bullish about the UK’s current Brexit position.

My overall opinion remains unchanged and that is those client holding Sterling should be looking at short-term spikes in the market, rather than hold out for longer-term sustainable gains.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

What can we expect for the pound this week?

It is no secret that the pound has recently found favour, but this week are a number of events which could well move the market from current levels. This post will outline some of the week’s economic data releases and other themes to be aware of when considering any currency exchanges involving the pound.

The main reason for sterling strength of late is that it is looking less and less likely the UK entered recession in the first quarter of 2012. Most of the more recent data has indicated that the UK will have narrowly avoided recession, but we will not know until 25th April when the first estimate for Q1 is released.

The pound has also found favour because the UK has undertaken such strict budget deficit reduction measures in the last 18 months. This has made government bonds (gilts) one of the most secure and attractive investments in the world. In order to buy gilts in the UK, investors must buy pounds which is also keeping the pound strong.

Markets move every few seconds and daily movements can be up to 2 cents, sometimes more! Getting the best rate is about being able to react quickly, which is where we come in. If you are considering an exchange, we can make you aware of all the events surrounding your trade and ensure you are aware of important spikes which can happen out of the blue. We can also guarantee that we get you the best deal, undercutting the price of any bank or broker for clients who contact us via this site. Speak to me on jmw@currencies.co.uk to find out more…

Tuesday – Inflation Data – CPI and RPI are the two measures. Inflation is still well above the Bank of England’s target of 2% and is watched closely by investors to see  how the UK’s recovery is progressing and assess the likelihood of any interest rate hikes down the line.

Wednesday – Unemployment – Unemployment is a real weight around the shoulders of this government. Just how can the UK begin to move forward with more and more people being out of work? The knock on effects of high unemployment are disasterous – increased benefit claims, less tax revenue, less consumer spending etc etc.

Bank of England Minutes – We will find out how the members of the UK MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voted at their last interest rate setting meeting. Is more QE on the cards as some have suggested?

Friday – Retail Sales – Some analysts put Retail Sales as accounting for 60% of UK GDP. Consumer habits are key in determining the outlook for the UK and hence the pound.

It is worth noting that the above data releases are (besides the Minutes) the figures for March. That is they will be indicative of how the UK fared in the first quarter for 2012, and hence the some of the last pieces of data before the GDP estimate for Q1, I referred to at the start of the post (due on the 25th April). It is likley therefore we will see movement this week ahead of next week’s GDP release as investors move funds ahead of the outcome to try to profit from what they expect will happen.

All of the team here at PSF can help you secure award winning rates of exchange. We will not be beaten on an exchange rates for both businesses and private clients alike so why not give us a try! We offer a highly personal dedicated account manager service, much like the kind of service private banks offer, our focus however is solely on the currency side of things. We will make sure you know not only all your options, but also all the key events that may move your rate. This way you can ensure that you make an informed decision. And even if you have already spoken to someone else about your trade, it is always worth a second opinion. People shop around on car insurance to save a few pennies, sending one email to any of the team here could save you thousands of pounds!

To find out more about how it all works and ask me any questions that you may have on the markets or our service, why not drop me a line today on jmw@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you

GBPEUR rates forecast ON THE RESULT OF THE BREXIT VOTE

Pound Sterling Forecast – Is GBP Likely to Stage a recovery?

Sterling rates have SPIKED. The Pound has climbed over 2 cents against the single currency and 3 cents against the dollar. GBPUSD climbed by its biggest daily amount in over 7 years and GBPEUR was a similar record breaking day with the largest movement this year. If you want to take advantage of these gains you can do this within as short as time as 10 minutes – get in contact via email at hse@currencies.co.uk if this is of interest.

The reason for these gains was driven by a change in the Polls suggesting the ‘Remain’ campaign is back in the lead. The vote is now only 72 hours away with initial results expected to start being released from 7 am on Friday. This is the main talking point in the market at the moment and indeed the main driving factor on the market.  Last week we were 3 cents lower for GBPEUR levels so this current level shows quite an opportunity. Moving forward we can either expect to see rates continue to climb if the next poll suggests the same outcome, with a ‘Remain’ win. Alternatively profit of the speculators and traders could be taken out of the market resulting in rates dropping down again.  As per usual, when we see movements of this level the peak is normally quickly thereafter when the SPIKE is at its top.  Here we offer SPIKE notifications for exactly this reason, helping our clients achieve closer to the top of the market.

On the result of the news on Friday, rates may either climb if the Uk stay in the EU or crash if they vote to leave. If you are a buyer of GBPEUR or GBPUSD and rolling over this event then in either case actiong quickly on Friday will be key. If it is a REMAIN the best levels will be on the first spike, if it is a LEAVE then we expect rates to continue to fall for a few days as the ramifications are calculated. As a result ‘pulling the plaster off quickly’ may be the best tactic.

If you want to move quickly on the result make sure to get in contact – email me now, before you forget with a summary of your situation and your contact details so you can get ready to act from 7am on Friday morning UK time. Email me now at hse@currencies.co.uk

Recent Posts