Buying Euro and Dollar rates set for marginal improvements next week (Joshua Privett)

Brexit news: Is a move below 1.10 for GBP/EUR realistic

Boris Johnson hitting the headlines on Sunday isn’t expected to muddle the chatter on currency markets next week, with buying Euro and Dollar rates set to benefit from a focus on economics over politics.

There is a host of data sets coming out from both within the UK and outside of it, with the positive or negative nature of the information set to sway the value of the currency attached to that particular economy.

Whilst Boris Johnson’s comments are inflammatory they will not be deemed by markets to alter the current course of the Brexit. This has been the major guage used on how recent political news has affected the value of the Pound.

With big announcements coming recently, the deadline for Article 50 in March 2017, and the very public spat between Theresa May, Merkel and Holland about what a future agreement between the UK and the EU may look like, it seems as if most of the curveballs which could impact the Pound in the short-term politically have come and gone.

With this in mind, we may finally see some of the positive news coming out of the UK economy begin to register on the currency markets.

We’ve already seen some promising hints to show the UK economy is weathering the storm of the Leave vote relatively well.

Despite the news about ‘marmite-gate’ and the pricing pressures forced on the UK with a weak Pound, business confidence in manufacturing, construction and the financial service sectors are recovering and in some cases surpassing what was recorded last year.

Firstly on Monday we have Eurozone inflation data which is expected to come in poorly as it has done quite consistently for a few years now. Conversely on Tuesday the UK has their own inflation data, which is expected to show a healthier reading closer the Bank of England’s 2% yearly target. Combined both of these data releases could see improvements on buying Euro rates in particular.

Furthermore, employment and wage data for the UK on Thursday morning could provide the additional support needed behind Sterling to see some improvement on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD.

With this hypersensitive market, opportunities can develop and evapourate quite quickly, and it is important not to be ‘last to the party’ in these situations as the flood of people buying a particular currency will suddenly make its price rise.

I offer a very proactive service to make sure my customers with an upcoming buying or selling Euro or Dollar requirement remain well informed currency purchasers.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and if you are not a regular reader of this website I recommend noting that you can pre-book your currency for a future currency transfer using a small deposit.

You can contact me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk or fill out the form below and I will be in contact as soon as I am able to to discuss the options open to you to safeguard your transfer and try to maximise your currency return.

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Exchange Rate Forecast – GBP – Euro – US Dollar Prediction ( Andrew Bromley )

Sterling hits 3 month high against the US Dollar

EURO FORECAST

The Euro seems to be slipping off of a cliff without a rope – up a creek without a paddle if you will! The markets are still digesting the spending of the Eurozone Central Bank across the collective economies, with particular focus on Greece. Greece is still a concern as the terms put forward by the Syriza party are still considered too fluffy and there is obviously still a huge amount of distrust there. In my opinion the Euro is the weakest of the major currencies by some distance. When compared to the Pound following the commencement of UK Quantitative Easing (GBP EUR hit Parity), I’d get my funds out of the Single Currency post haste! It is worth being cautious tomorrow morning at 08:00 as Eurozone Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks at 08:00…

GBP FORECAST

All currency exchanges that include the Pound should be very wary of the looming General Election and associated build up. I personally think it is incredibly hard to call now for GBP EUR as to whether or not the Pound will be pushed back significantly. The very worst scenario for the UK would be a government focused on things other than the economy – especially leaving our key trading partner the EU. Therefore should parties other than the Conservatives have a good run, be prepared for some Pound weakness. This weakness is not guaranteed to move GBP EUR however! Next week George Osborne announces what could be his last budget, and will be a vital tool for election success (or failure). In his last major address at the end of 2014 he cut Stamp Duty and pumped more money in to the NHS. It will be interesting to see if he has any other big announcements that could talk those sitting on the fence in to voting Conservative.

USD FORECAST

Following the major gain for the US last week on the back of improved employment statistics, the next key date is Thursday. The US has been hit hard in key areas of late and it will potentially be seen in the retail sales figures released. We may see the Dollar slip a small amount, however my overall opinion for the US Dollar is on-going strength. The Federal Reserve were more positive about an interest rate increase in the State this Summer so don’t be surprised to see levels in the 1.49s soon. During the Election build up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see levels go even lower in to the 1.40s!

If you have Dollars to buy, I’d get them bought ASAP. There’s no point in my opinion risking a slight improvement in rate against the worlds ‘Safe Haven’ currency when it is performing like this!

Finally, those with a New Zealand Dollar exchange – be aware that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce their Interest Decision at 20:00 UK time – will there be a change from the current 3.5%??

If you have an exchange requirement, feel free to get in touch to discuss. With GBP EUR crashing through 1.40 and GBP USD testing 1.50, markets are incredibly volatile and worth having an extra pair of eyes on the markets!

Direct Dial to the trading floor 01494 787 478 ( Please quote this ‘Blog’ and ask for Andrew )

Alternatively email me directly AJB@currencies.co.uk

Have a good evening…

Andrew Bromley

 

Pound to Euro rate hits 6-month high as Brexit text is agreed

Pound to Euro rate hits 6-month high as Brexit text is agreed, what could happen next to GBP/EUR

Yesterday the Pound to Euro exchange rate climbed to its best levels in 6 months. This level was within half a cent from the best Pound to Euro rate in 15 months, making it a good time for Sterling sellers when recent trade levels are considered.

Brexit news positive for Pound to Euro exchange rate

The reason for the spike in Sterling’s value is due to the announcement that a Brexit text has been agreed upon by Prime Minister Theresa May and her EU counterparts. The upside movement so far has been limited as the arrangements need to be agreed upon by May’s Cabinet before being passed through Parliament. This morning there is a lot of talk about whether there will be any further resignations by Cabinet members that are unhappy with the proposed deal. I think that if any members do step down the gains for Sterling over the past 24 hours would most likely be wiped out.

There is also a chance that the Cabinet will reject the proposed Brexit deal and this could be another reason for a drop in the Pound to Euro exchange rate.

Cabinet meeting set for 2pm today

At 14.00 GMT today the UK Cabinet is expected to meet to discuss the future relationship between the UK and EU along with the draft withdrawal agreement. If talks go well and progress is made there is talk of the previously cancelled November EU Summit being re-instated around the 25th of this month. This could be another potential market mover as it would signal positive strides being made by May in her quest to appease everyone in what seems like an impossible task at the moment.

Positive economic data for the UK

The Pound may have also been helped by the strong wage growth data released yesterday, which showed a further rise in regular pay growth to a decade high of 3.2%. Economic data is playing second fiddle to Brexit updates at the moment but it’s worth knowing that there is October’s inflation data being released later today which could impact the Pound to Euro rate depending on the release.

Another key topic at the moment that could impact the Pound to Euro exchange rate is the Italian Budget. The Italian coalition Government is in disagreement with the EU regarding its budget allowance, and the pair appear to be at loggerheads as this issue has been rumbling on for a while now.

If you wish to be updated in the event of a major Pound to Euro movement, do feel free to send me a message. You can send me a message directly using the form below, to ask me any questions you may have about the Pound to Euro rate. I will respond to you personally.


Sterling Strengthens against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling has seen huge gains against all major currencies today as UK unemployment rate was confirmed at 5.5% and average earnings have also risen.

This is good news for the British economy and also reflected in Sterling exchange rates which have got close to hitting 1.40 vs the Euro during today’s trading session.

My opinion is that we could see 1.40 this week especially if the Greek discussions over the next few days don’t provide a resolution.

Indeed, although the current Greek debt is approx EUR320bn the really worrying statistic is that the GDP to debt ratio is around 180%.

It is this figure that concerns the market as even if the Greeks do end up being able to make the most immediate payments until they get this problem under control things are likely to get worse.

The US Federal Reserve are due to meet this evening and although they are not likely to change interest rates any suggestions of rate hike in the next few months could strengthen the Dollar this could end up weakening the Euro creating some excellent opportunities to buy Euros with Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Are you about to buy currency through a bank or broker soon? Will this sterling rally continue?

Just lately we have seen sterling spike which is obviously some excellent news. The big question I am being asked is will it last? I personally would not be surprised to see the the pound continue to be supported with all this good news but I would warn those considering selling sterling holding out for significant improvements to beware.

The key thing to look at is how is how Mark Carney and the MPC have laid out lower interest rates until 2016. This is likely to be a major drag on the pound and is leaving the door open to further QE. I would be very surprised if in the current global economic climate with the Eurozone economies still struggling we don’t see further pressure put on the UK economy. Mervyn King famously talked of the ‘zig zag’ recovery and I think the current trend higher whilst to be wholly welcomed will not be sustainable.

I think therefore if you are buying a foreign currency with sterling now or in the coming weeks this spike is well worth seriously considering. Even if you do not have full availability of funds you can book a rate with us for a small deposit.

Are you about to buy currency through a bank or broker soon? I have today done a number of currency deals for people who wrote to me via this and our sister sites and was able to offer them all savings versus their current provider. If you are considering a currency exchange soon and would like to explore getting a better rate and service, please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to me Jonathan.

GBPEUR exchange rates near 2 year high to buy Euros (Tom Holian

Sterling Euro rates have seen a big gain this week following the best UK retail sales data in over ten years.

Thanks to the effect of Black Friday consumers spent a lot more than expected and the data showed growth of 6.4%.

Wage inflation is also now rising faster than inflation for the first time since 2008 so this week the British economy looks in very good shape.

Sterling has broken through 1.27 yesterday and this look set to remain at around these levels for the time being with little data out for both the UK and Eurozone today.

Next week sees the release of UK GDP data for Q3. If it is revised downwards we could see Sterling fall marginally against the Euro so it may be worth taking advantage of this spike on Monday prior to the announcement.

Also bringing the Euro down is the issue with the Greek government. All eyes are now fixed on what is happening with Greek politics. If the Syriza party is voted in they have promised to challenge the bailout terms set out by the ECB previously which could cause instability and cause the Euro to weaken.

If you have currency transfer to make prior to Christmas and want to save money on exchange rates when buying Euros compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Will Sterling’s rally vs the Euro and US Dollar continue? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have started to witness a recovery since falling to close to their lowest point in three years following the impact of the Brexit.

Economic data that is now being published since the vote to leave the European Union has not been as bad as expected and indeed UK consumer confidence is back to its best level since 2013 which has been reflected in Sterling Euro exchange rates.

Yesterday’s UK GDP data came out as anticipated with levels for the previous quarter at 0.6% which helped to provide Sterling with strength vs the single currency.

As we go into next week following the Bank Holiday the focus will return back to the Eurozone with the release of Industrial and Consumer confidence as well as German inflation data on Tuesday morning.

It will be interesting to watch out for this data as this could also provide support for the Pound if the results show a slowdown on the continent and a fall in confidence.

UK manufacturing data published earlier in the week showed levels back to the best in 2 years which demonstrates that the impact of the Brexit vote was not as bad as expected.

My view is that we could see Sterling continue to rise against the Euro as only 2 months ago we were over 10% better on GBPEUR rates and owing to the Brexit this is the main reason why rates have fallen by so much.

However, it appears as though the economy hasn’t struggled too badly since the vote and this could support the Pound vs the Euro and arguably also against the US Dollar.

Therefore, if you’re thinking about selling Euros to buy Sterling it may be worth looking at making a purchase before the Pound recovers against the single currency.

If you’re in the process of selling a property abroad and want to secure an exchange rate for a future date then it may be worth considering buying a forward contract, which means you know exactly what Sterling you will receive once your property has sold.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

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Sterling Rates Surge Ahead of Tomorrow’s GDP Figures (Matthew Vassallo)

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

After seeing Sterling rates fall against its euro counterpart for the past few weeks, it was understandable that investors were growing concerned over the lack of growth we were witnessing in the UK economy. The UK remember is still officially in recession, following two quarters of negative growth and with some reports last week suggesting our economy had once again stagnated during quarter 3, fears were growing that the Pound could be set for a turbulent ride up until Christmas. These fears will remain but have certainly been allayed, following a surge for GBP during Wednesday’s trading.

GBP has gained almost a cent on the euro, rising to 1.2379 at the high of the day. This comes in stark contrast to recent movements, which has seen the Pound struggle following a run of poor economic data. This was seemingly continuous up until this week where we saw an improvement in unemployment, retail sale and inflation figures and with further good news expected tomorrow, we could see GBP/EUR rates put pressure back on the 1.24 level. I do not expect levels to reach the highs (1.2860)of the summer but it will certainly bring some respite and relief to those investors who were concerned they would be trading back in the mid teens by the end of the year.

It is also worth noting that the positive movment today could be attributed to the markets factoring in the 0.6% growth we are expecting to see following tomorrow’s GDP figures, so any variation form the expected results could cause further market volatility. Personally I would expect rates to stay range-bound between 1.23-1.24, unelss there is a variation in the GDP figures, or any further pit-falls with Spain and their bailout requirements.

GBP/USD rates also improved by a cent, breaking back through 1.60 and providing excellent oppotunities for those purchasing USD. I feel these levels will be short-0for long, as

Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have won awards for our exchange rates
and customer service. We also provide multiple contract types all tailored
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Where Next for GBP/EUR Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

Escalating Trade War with China Putting Pressure on the USD

Where Next For GBP/EUR Rates?

2012 has been quite a year for our most popular traded currency pair. It started with various analysts’ predictions, ranging from parity to 1.40 and I’m sure, as we enter 2013, their predictions will be just as bullish, and as potentially inaccurate.

Unfortunately, however, these predictions left many wondering who to believe, all the while reaffirming my belief that long-range forecasts, particularly on GBP/EUR, are
not all that beneficial. This is because the current economic climate in Europe and the UK is a constantly changing landscape and what is true today will not necessarily be true next week and almost certainly not true next month. Therefore, we need to be reactive to these market developments, without having a knee jerk reaction to any negative data that might be released.

Personally, I feel that whilst we continue to trade above 1.20, EUR buyers are probably doing a little better than they should be and it is important to remember that if you were to make a £200,000 GBP/EUR transfer today, you would receive an additional EUR 14,000, compared to the same transfer this time last year.

All those sitting on their positions and waiting for rates to return to the four year highs that we witnessed in the summer (1.2860), may wish to consider the relative state of our economy and our heavy reliance on the eurozone, as a trading partner and consider realigning their targets.

Sterling Could Struggle to Make Further Inroads Against the USD

GBP has performed well against the greenback since the summer, moving comfortably into the 1.60’s and providing USD buyers with some great opportunities, especially when you consider how fragile the UK economy has remained, during this period.

This week’s key economic data release was yesterday’s FED decision, where a new bond buying scheme was announced. Their aim is to keep US interest rates very low for the foreseeable future, at least until unemployment falls below 6.5% and inflation below 2.5%. This did see the USD lose some strength against both GBP and the EUR, as investors saw it as a positive sign for the global economy and moved funds away from the ‘safe haven’ USD.

Personally I feel that the USD will strengthen back towards 1.57/1.58, as we enter the first quarter of 2013 and the US economy slowly starts to recover.

GBP/CAD Forecast

GBP/CAD rates have been range-bound between 1.5720 –1.6121 for the past few months and this trend looks set to continue, with the Pound struggling to break through the 1.60 resistance barrier over the coming months.

Many analysts believe the Canadian economy has weathered the current global financial crisis better than any other country, primarily due to the high demand for their exports, including their vast oil supplies.

This market uncertainty not only creates issues for high end investors, but also for anyone looking to move funds for a foreign property purchase, or indeed those looking to repatriate
their funds into the UK, following a sale. We have over twelve years’ experience of navigating the currency markets and providing over 45,000 clients with award winning rates of exchange and customer service. If you would like to find out what rates we can offer, or have any market queries, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or call us on 00 44 1494 787 478.

 

Savings on your currency transfer

“I can see sterling exchange rates getting somewhat weaker over the coming weeks as I think it probable that the BoE will try and devalue the currency via Quantitative Easing (QE), while the ECB will almost certainly not”

I have taken on lots of new clients recently who have registered with us to speak about their Euro purchase. They are extremely worried about the future outlook for the pound due to the weakening of the rates against the Euro.

I explained to them that the outlook is extremely bleak at present but that they do have options to give them the peace of mind with their currency exchange. You can attempt to safeguard your rate from forward contracts to utilising stop/loss and limit orders. These options would stop your currency exchange from becoming more expensive than you had budgeted for and would give you the peace of mind that you will be looking for when making a currency transfer.

I personally had a client who took advantage of the rates on the Euro 6 weeks ago by entering into one of our forward contracts for completion 3 months down the line. They were paying 250,000 Euros for their dream foreign home. They called me on Friday as it was the first time that they had looked at the exchange rates since entering the forward contract and thanked me as I had saved them around £13,000 on Friday’s exchange rates If you feel that this may suite your requirements please contact us on the form on the right hand side of this page and one of our authors will be in contact.

With the way the pound has strengthened against the US Dollar recently the above option may be ideal.

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