When is the best time to Transfer your Currency? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP USD Exchange Rate Bounces Off Yet Another Two-Year Low

Sterling is looking very weak at present having fallen in value against all major currency pairings. The pound is suffering due to a series of poor data releases. There has been poor manufacturing, industrial and retail figures of late, not to mention the shocking trade deficit data. The main factor in Sterling’s weakness however is the EU referendum. Current FT polls show 44% of the UK population wish to remain in the EU, 41% wish to leave and 15% remain undecided. It is an extremely tight call, which will have major bearings on the UK economy. Personally I feel it would be madness to leave, it would strain trade relationships with those in the EU and hit our already dwindling exports hard. If we were to leave I would not be surprised to see Sterling fall significantly against a host of currency pairings.

I think we will remain in the EU, Cameron has simply been posturing in order to get what he wants, fingers crossed his reliance on a sensible vote from the UK population is not misplaced. Until the EU referendum is concluded I do not think there is much hope of significant Sterling gains.

GBP/EUR

When should I buy Euros?

If you are a Euro buyer and you have to move short term it may be wise to move sooner rather than later, As mentioned above I don’t think we will see any big swings in Sterling favor until after the EU referendum unless Draghi implements further QE. (see below)

When should I sell Euros?

Euro Sellers, Despite the current situation looking very rosy for the Euro at present, Mario Draghi the head of the European Central Bank has indicated he is willing to to increase monthly increments in the Quantitative Easing (QE) program as early as March. QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. The last time this occurred Sterling rose in value upward of five cents.

GBP/USD

Janet Yellen the Head of the Federal Reserve had previously stated there could be several rate hikes in 2016. She has however recently said that this is now unlikely due to global economic uncertainty. GBP/USD is very difficult to predict at present. Sterling’s weakness is obviously justified at present due to the factors listed above, but on the US side you have to take into account the Presidential election. During times of political  uncertainty the currency in question generally weakens. Although I think we will have to get much closer to election time to see it have a significant affect. With the possibility of the EU referendum taking place possibly as early as June and the US election due in November we could well see a Sterling rally.

Moving short term however is a tricky task, for both Sterling and Greenback buyers I would suggest trying to time your trade on a Spike to maximise your trade. this is indeed a very difficult skill and I would advise getting in touch with a Broker can keep their eyes and ears ion the market for you.

GBP/AUD

GBP/AUD yesterday fell through the 2.00 resistance barrier, although I can’t see much further gains for the Aussie. I feel it is over valued. It has rallied due to a recent speech by Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens. Stevens had a bullish tone, stating there has been an increase in house building and consumer spending quelling fears of a drop in interest rates. However, I think a rate drop could still be on the cards, China could well change monetary policy in order to try and stimulate their current dwindling growth levels in which case the Australians could well to follow suit.

When should I buy Australian Dollars?

I think we will see some Sterling strength in the short to medium term, however I would set a realistic target rate. I do not think we will be seeing 2.06 + any time soon.

When should I sell Australian Dollars?

With the GBP/AUD exchange rate currently sitting at 1.99, Australian Dollar sellers are at some of the best trading levels in the last six months. It was not long ago the GBP/AUD rate sat above 2.20, a gain of 20 cents is definitely not to be sniffed at. A trade for AUD 100,000 between now and the is more than £4000 difference.You could hang on for the chance of small gains at the risk the procrastination could prove costly.

If you have a currency requirement I will be more than happy to assist. I will look at your trade individually and not only guarantee the best rates of exchange against any competitor but also time your trade to maximize your return. We have various contact options which I can talk you through to help-your individual needs. I specialise in Commercial and Property transfers so pleased o get in touch if I can be of assistance. You can contact me at  [email protected]. Thank you for reading my blog it is appreciated and I look forward to hearing from you.

Where Next for Sterling Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review July 16  

Sterling rates have remained fairly flat during Wednesday’s trading, with the latest UK unemployment rate coming out as expected. The official reading of 4.9% was likely factored into the current GBP exchange rates by investors and as such we saw very little movement on the exchange.

Sterling did however, receive a timely boost yesterday, with UK inflation data coming in above market expectation. Despite levels remaining relatively low and a long way from the government’s target of 2%, the official readings helped GBP gain some traction against the EUR, USD & AUD. With so much uncertainty surrounding the UK economy at present any positive readings are welcomed by those clients holding GBP, who have had to watch the Pound’s value disintegrate over recent weeks.

Inflation levels have been the cause of much debate and are seen as a key market trigger for investors. Given their relevance in terms of the health of the overall economy, this positive reading may help to alleviate some of the pressure that has been building on Sterling over recent weeks.  How the Bank of England (BoE) will look to counter any aggressive rises in inflation is yet to be debated but for now the small improvements seen are likely to give GBP some much needed market support.

Personally I am of the opinion that Sterling will find a foothold sooner rather than later and we should get some protection around the current levels. We still remain well above the lows of 2008 and whilst it is likely that the longer-term Brexit outlook will restrict any aggressive Sterling advances above 1.20, I don’t believe it is all doom & gloom as some analysts are predicting.

Any client holding GBP should be aware of the pitfalls they currently face and it may be wise to protect themselves against a negative market by utilising one of our forward contracts, which are in place for situations such as this. They can give you piece of mind during a turbulent period and allow clients to budget on their foreign property and asset purchases, helping to remove the fear of further market drops.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask for Matt. Alternatively, you can register your details through this blog or email me directly on [email protected]

Could the Pound make further gains against the Euro before the end of the year? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has made gains during the week hitting close to a 4 month high at the start of the week owing to the Italian referendum news which saw Renzi lose the vote on constitutional reform.

The Pound then struggled following the Supreme Court hearing but made gains after the government voted in favour of the UK pursuing Article 50.

On Thursday afternoon the Pound then improved vs the single currency as the European Central Bank announced that although they may be reducing their monthly QE volume form EUR80bn to EUR60bn they did confirm that the current programme due to end in March 2017 will continue.

Yesterday morning UK Trade Balance figures published by the Office of National Statistics confirmed that the figure had reduced which is good news and this was reflected in GBPEUR exchange rates which went in an upwards direction breaking through 1.19 on the Interbank level.

I think there is further gains to be had for the Pound vs the Euro next week and we could possibly challenge 1.20 levels especially if the US Federal Reserve decide to increase interest rates at next Wednesday’s meeting.

If the US do raise rates then investors will likely plough into the Dollar causing Dollar strength and Euro weakness. Good new for anyone looking to buy Euros with Sterling.

Both UK and Eurozone inflation data is due out on Tuesday and I think if we see the figures high in the UK then this could see Sterling make gains possibly hitting 1.20 if the news is good.

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your transfer of money.

If you need to buy or sell Euros and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian [email protected]

 

 

 

Bank of England minutes tomorrow and all eyes on GBP/AUD rates (Joshua privett)

Pound to Dollar forecast: Sterling continues to decline against the US Dollar

Overnight the minutes released by the Reserve Bank of Australia show a mixed view of the current economic forecast for the Australian economy.

While they hinted that increased employment had ‘put a dent’ in the chances for another rate cut, this was balanced out by negative views on the current state of the world economy. As such the Australian Dollar is now lower once the minutes revealed developments in Greece and China would influence future rate decisions.

After such a morbid view, inflation data to be released tomorrow morning must be positive to stop a complete slide on Dollar value.

Today is a quiet day for data releases, so markets are looking to the release of Bank of England minutes and interest rate decisions.

Recently Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, suggested that interest rates may rise at the turn of the year. This means we could see a change in the voting tally for raising rates tomorrow. This could bolster Sterling, yet the alternative (no change from the 0 out of 9 who voted for a rate hike last month) will do the opposite. It will show that Carney’s comments may be more bluster than concrete policy supported by the rest of the board, which could lead to Sterling weakness.

Call into the trading floor on 01494 787 478 and ask for Joshua to discuss how to take advantage of a specific economic event. A number of tools are available to help you buy at the high, or buy before the rates fall back to far to prevent any losses. [email protected]

Expect Volatility after the BOE Interest Rate Decision (Daniel Johnson)

We could see big movement for Sterling against all major currency pairings today. Although the chance of a change from the 0.5% we currently sit at is very slim, the Monetary Policy Committee vote is what could really cause the swing. The MPC’s nine members vote for or against a rate hike. We have consistently seen Ian McCafferty vote for a rate hike although with news of global slow down spurred on by China’s poor growth figures, he may be about to change his mind. Another member of the MPC Andy Haldane has indicated there may even need to be a rate drop before a hike. If there is any significant changes in the voting expect movement across the board. If we see the vote remain at 8-1, Sterling should rally. Personally I think this is a strong possibility with McCafferty remaining stubborn, Haldane would really be causing a shock by calling for a drop in rates.

I do have several large GBP-EUR trades going through in the coming days that potentially I could tag new clients on to and achieve a very competitive rate. Please do get in touch if this is something of interest. I will guarantee to beat any bank or brokerage’s exchange rates.

I am currently offering a free rate alert service, just drop a line or e-mail with your currency requirements including your time scale and the levels you are hoping to obtain and I will notify you of  any significant movement.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me on [email protected] or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

 

 

BOE minutes lead to Sterling weakness – Pound loses against Euro, and many majors, still holds strong against AUD and USD

This morning we have seen the BOE (Bank of England) minutes released and this data has led to losses against most major currencies yet the Pound has made minor gains against the Dollar and Australian Dollar.

The gains against the Dollar were due to the Federal Reserve in America not exactly painting a great picture for their economy last night either.

Still just one member of the BOE voted in favour of an interest rate hike yet the main mover was the fact that numerous members are now seriously considering the option of further QE (Quantitative Easing) again in the near future.

Those of you who had an eye on the markets last year will be aware every time QE was mentioned or actioned it tended to lead to Sterling weakness so anyone with an upcoming requirement may wish to seriously consider their options inclusive of a forward contract, stop or limit order.

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Pounds hits 5 week high against the Euro (Tom Holian)

The Pound has made some very positive gains vs the Euro during yesterday’s trading session with the release of the latest UK inflation figures.

UK inflation year on year came out higher than expected at 2.9% which is the highest level seen in 5 years.

This also helped to push GBPUSD exchange rates to their best level to buy US Dollars with Pounds in a year.

We also saw the EU Repeal Bill get voted through earlier this week with all of the Conservative Party in agreement which highlights a ‘strong and stable economy’ which is what Theresa May has spoken about many times over the last few months.

With inflation rising this will put a bit of pressure on the Bank of England to at least consider increasing interest rates at some point but in my mind I cannot see this happening until late 2018 or 2019.

However, when the Bank of England meet on Thursday we could see a shift in the voting pattern which could cause some movement for Sterling.

This morning we have the release of the latest UK unemployment figures as well as Average Earnings. Unemployment is currently the lowest in over 30 years but it is average earnings that is of most concern.

Indeed, with inflation rising and average earnings struggling to keep up I think we’ll also see some volatility at 930am this morning for Sterling exchange rates.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on [email protected] and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Sterling Exchange Rates Mixed Fortunes (Tom Holian)

Sterling has had a very interesting week against both the US Dollar and Euro with a big movement on  exchange rates.

The main reason for the Sterling fall against Euro and Dollar was due to the big fall in inflation yesterday morning. With inflation falling in the UK this has pushed back an interest rate hike for the UK further into the future and the likelihood of a rate hike is now after the election.

However, even with the recent fall for Sterling exchange rates against the single currency we are still trading above 1.25 on the mid-market level which is only 3 cents off a 2 year high hit in early October.

With the ECB having cut interest rates last month as well as monetary easing this month this had ended up strengthening the single currency as investors have seen this as a good thing that the ECB has acted to stop falling inflation.

German growth forecasts have been cut this week which is causing negativity on the continent but the problem for GBPEUR exchange rates is that with Europe forming such a large part of British trade then a slowdown on the continent may not have the desired effect on the Pound.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian [email protected] 

 

 

Sterling hits highest buying level against Swiss Franc since August

Sterling hits highest buying level against Swiss Franc since August

The Pound has made good gains against the Swiss Franc over the course of November. The GBP/CHF rate has hit the highest level since August, smashing through the 1.30 level.

Sterling strength: Rumours of Brexit deal agreement lead to Sterling boost

The main reason behind the rise in value of Sterling is the positive vibes surrounding Brexit. It now appears that a Brexit deal for the UK is edging closer. However, anyone looking to buy Swiss Francs with Sterling still needs to be cautious. The rug could still be pulled from underneath their feet as a Brexit deal is still far from agreed.

Sterling strength is fragile

It would only take a little negative news to come out regarding the latest Brexit negotiations for the current Sterling strength to disappear. We have been close to a Brexit deal on a number of occasions before only to find out that it does not happen, so the current Sterling strength looks fairly attractive.

Of course, should a provisional deal be agreed then we may see further Sterling strength, but do be wary that this deal would then still have to be approved by Parliament and uncertainty would likely kick in again before we know it.

Economic data for the week ahead

In terms of economic data from Switzerland, unemployment figures are due to be released tomorrow at 07:45am and expectations are for unemployment levels in Switzerland to remain at 2.5%. Should the figure come out lower the Swiss Franc should strengthen, a higher figure would likely lead to further Swiss Franc weakness to kick off the trading day.

We have a whole host of UK economic data on Friday morning, with growth figures, manufacturing and industrial production and trade balance figures too. Growth in the UK is expected to have risen from 0.4% to 0.6% for the third quarter of the year. This may lead to some Sterling strength in trading on Friday morning.

If you have the need to carry out an exchange involving the Pound or the Swiss Franc, or indeed any other major currency then you are more than welcome to get in touch with me for a free, no obligation discussion about current rates and potential market movements for or against you.

Feel free to fill in the form below for a free, no obligation discussion.


Sterling makes a good start to the week ahead of crucial BOE Interest rate decision on Thursday

The Pound has gained against the majority of major currencies today, making headway of 0.8% against the Euro, 0.18% against the U.S Dollar and over 0.70% against both the Australian and New Zealand Dollar close to the end of trading today.

This is all ahead of a crucial interest rate decision due to come out on Thursday at Midday where we will surely see further comments regarding potential Quantitative Easing in the U.K – The mere mention of this may lead to rapid Sterling losses unless obviously they mention they have no further plans to do any of course!

On another note a well known broker has unfortunately gone into administration today, they offered rates higher than the interbank however you had to settle the full amount with them immediately for your currency to be delivered at a later date, we never could work out how they could possibly manage to buy above the market and despite many attempts to find out drew  a blank.

I have come accross clients shopping with this company, even though they are mainly travel money they also did bank to bank as well, and have always said if something seems too good to be true then it generally is, and once again that has sadly been proven as thousands of people will now face a major fight to get their money back.

Should you wish to achieve great exchange rates for any upcoming transaction you need to make be it buying or selling Pounds, Euros, Dollars or any other major currency (i’m afraid we only deal in bank to bank and not cash) please feel free to fill in the contact form on the right hand side of this page and I will get straight in touch.

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None of the information contained in this website constitutes, nor should be construed as financial advice. It should not be interpreted as a solicitation to offer to buy or sell any currency or as a recommendation to trade.

Where interbank exchange rates are referenced within the website these should only be used as a guide on the performance of a market. These rates are not indicative of our exchange rates – please contact us for a quote.