What will happen to the Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate as 29th March approaches? Brexit latest

Pound to Euro: 9th Round of Brexit Negotiations Resume Today

Sterling exchange rates have started the week by remaining fairly steady as we enter crunch time for Theresa May and the UK, coming into the last two weeks of Brexit talks.

Yesterday, news that the Speaker of the House John Bercow was not prepared to allow yet another attempt at getting a meaningful vote through did lead to a slight drop off in the value of the Pound, but there are still various paths that Brexit could take over the next few weeks. We only have 10 days left before the deadline.

The Brexit deal could still be approved

We still cannot rule out Theresa May having her Brexit deal go through Parliament, even with John Bercow’s latest ruling. Prime Minister May is still locked in talks with the DUP and other members of Parliament that are currently against the deal. If she can turn enough heads then Parliament can overturn John Bercow’s ruling as long as they have a majority. This is quite a way off being possible yet but should she manage to pull this off then I would expect Sterling strength due to the certainty it brings back to the UK.

A Brexit delay could be agreed with the EU

The most likely outcome at present is that Prime Minister May will end up approaching the EU for an agreement to delay the Brexit date. It had been suggested this could be for as long as two years but could just as likely be for a much shorter period.

It would be no surprise to see this also give the Pound a slight lift, due to the fact that it could suggest that Brexit could end up being a totally different beast. It also opens up the door for the possibility of a second EU referendum or even a general election before any further major changes. It could also lead to the possibility of Brexit not even happening at all.

Either way if the delay was for a long period of time I would be surprised to not see Theresa May step aside and to let someone else take the reins.

The EU could refuse to delay Brexit

In order to delay Brexit all 27 EU countries need to come to an agreement that they are happy for this to happen. There is a chance that the request for a delay could be refused and this would be one option that could lead to Sterling weakness.

A refusal for a delay will almost back the UK into accepting the deal they currently have or to face the prospect of leaving with no deal.

No deal has been the big worry for investors and speculators as it brings a great deal of uncertainty and could lead to Sterling losing a lot of value until there is greater certainty on future plans.

There are also other twists and turns that could happen over the next 10 days and I personally would not rule anything out at this stage as we just do not know what is going on behind closed doors, so it would be foolish to make a stern prediction.

It does seem that most avenues to lead to Sterling strength but if you are in the process of a large overseas purchase, or bringing a large volume of foreign currency back into the UK then you need to make sure that you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side. With all the politics involved you need to make sure that you are ready and in a position to move quickly should the opportunity arise.

If you would like to speak with someone here at Pound Sterling Forecast who will be able to explain the various options you have available, along with making sure that your current provider or bank are offering you the most for your money in this key time, then feel free to fill in the form below and we will make sure we get in touch for a no obligation discussion with you shortly.

Will Brexit be delayed? Speaker John Bercow steals the headlines

GBPEUR: Sterling Loses Ground Ahead of Rates, Election

All national newspapers this morning have criticized speaker John Bercow’s ruling that Theresa May cannot bring back the same Brexit deal for a third vote unless there are substantial changes. The Times have even stated they believe Bercow is ‘Sabotaging May’s Brexit deal’ and Downing street are once again questioning the speakers impartiality.

Will Brexit be delayed?

It appears that now there won’t be a third vote before the EU summit on Thursday, therefore the Prime Minister will have to ask for a longer extension. The likelihood is that the EU will grant a long extension which could be potentially 2 years and there will be a minor concession which will allow a meaningful vote next week.

Members of Parliament that voted against Theresa May in the last 2 meaningful votes will have to ask themselves the question of whether they want an extension of 2 years. This opens the door to another referendum or vote in favour of the PMs deal to make sure the UK leave the EU in the upcoming months.

Pound to Dollar rates likely to be heavily influenced by Brexit updates

Pound to Dollar exchange rates have been heavily influenced by the ongoing Brexit saga over the last couple of years and I expect we could see further volatility in the upcoming weeks. Personally I don’t see the UK leaving with no deal now and a long extension is the most likely outcome. Therefore I forecast that GBP/USD exchange rates will remain range bound in the lower 1.30s for the upcoming months.

Selling US Dollars to buy Pounds

However for clients that are selling US dollars to buy pounds, if a deal is reached in the upcoming weeks I expect the pound to gain significant value. Over the last 10 years GBP/USD exchange rates have been as low as 1.20 but as high as 1.70. With exchange rates now in the 1.30s rates are still extremely attractive for buying sterling, therefore considering any short term GBP/USD transfers seems wise. For more information on Brexit and how the next couple of weeks could impact your transfer feel free to get in contact with me.

Economic data due this week

In other news, this morning average earnings and unemployment number are released for the UK. The numbers are set to remain steady at 3.4% and 4% respectively. Furthermore tomorrow the Federal Reserve are set to release their latest interest rate decision alongside the monetary policy statement. For more information on the data releases and how they could impact your currency exchange please feel the form in below and I will be in touch shortly.

Theresa May loses meaningful vote and Sterling loses value – Two more key votes this week

GBP EUR Higher After European Central Bank Rates

Last night saw Theresa May lose her meaningful vote once again and this has led to uncertainty for the UK and indeed Sterling exchange rates.

Pound to Euro exchange rates

Yesterday morning we saw Sterling breach the 1.17 mark against the Euro and traders seemed to be filled with confidence that a deal for the UK could be on the horizon.

As the morning progressed Sterling then started to weaken and this was due to news that the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox had suggested that the new changes were not totally legally binding.

He then continued on to inform the House of Commons that they had a duty of care to the UK and to be very wary of voting down the deal, as although the new terms were not legally binding, if the EU did not act in good faith there were other options available to resolve the matter.

This didn’t seem to turn many heads in the right direction as news broke late last night that Prime Minister May had lost the vote by a margin of 149, suggesting she is still a very long way away from getting her Brexit deal approved.

No deal Brexit vote expected today

Today now brings about a new vote on whether Parliament would like to leave the EU with ‘no deal’. It is unlikely that we will see this get voted through as this could be seen from the outside as very damaging to the economy, but you can never rule these things out!

Personally, unless it does start to look like we may see the no deal vote go through, I expect a slightly less volatile trading day, but the rest of the week will most likely be extremely volatile again.

The rest of the week is expected to be volatile

Tomorrow, assuming today’s vote does not go through will lead to a vote on whether or not Parliament will seek an extension to Article 50. Last night Prime Minister May suggested that if this is the route that we are to take then the EU will only approve this if we can suggest why we would like the extension. More time to negotiate may not wash with the EU so other options, including a second referendum will have to be debated. I think these kind of subjects could lead to great volatility for Pound to Euro exchange rates.

If you are in the position where you need to exchange Pounds into Euros or bring Euros back into Pounds then it is key that you have your eye on the market at all times. If you have a busy lifestyle and cannot afford to watch the market, which moves by the second, then it is key that you have a proactive broker with various options available to you.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we can not only help with information but we can facilitate the trade for you too, we have numerous contract options available for clients such as limit orders, forward contracts and stop losses, designed to help you in these testing times.

Feel free to fill in the form below and I will be happy to discuss your personal position in more detail.

Sterling Forecast: Pound rises as Theresa May enters her possible breakthrough day

Sterling Forecast: Pound rises as Theresa May enters her possible breakthrough day

The Pound has gained ground against all major currencies overnight following news that Theresa May has managed to return from Strasbourg with some progress on her latest Brexit withdrawal deal.

Today is crunch time for Prime Minister May as she awaits the meaningful vote on her latest Brexit deal, which should be of great importance for Sterling exchange rates.

News overnight suggested that the latest developments with the deal have increased the chances of it being voted through. However this is still far from a foregone conclusion. For those holding out for a Sterling spike you must aware that there is no guarantee that the Pound will continue this climb.

My personal opinion is that if a deal goes through today then we will most likely see further Sterling strength against all major currencies but should it not get voted through then we are in for a bout of uncertainty over the next 48 hours and the Pound may lose value.

This would lead us onto two further votes, one for no deal and one for an extension to article 50. It is unlikely that the option of ‘no deal’ would get voted through, however if it did then we may see Sterling fall out of favour. Should we see an extension to Article 50 then it is hard to call which way the markets would take this.

I feel now that even if the vote goes through today then we may still need to seek an extension as there are still a lot of issues to iron out and very little time to do so.

All in all (and it is somewhat of a lottery to predict at present) my personal feeling is that the Pound will have a strong week and that even if the vote does not get through tonight, the Government are on the cusp of getting a deal over the line and they will most likely get something through in the coming days and weeks.

We will be running a live blog on the vote on this site later today so be sure to keep checking back for the latest updates.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out and you would like my assistance or simply to compare your rate to make sure you are getting the most for your money then please fill in the form below and I will get back to you personally.

GBP/EUR rate hits new 22 month high of 1.1766

GBP EUR Stuck in Range at 1.1700 Level

Pound Sterling strength as May claims to have gained concessions on the Irish Border from Brussels

Theresa May will put forward her Brexit deal to Parliament today and there has been news she has secured legally binding changes to it at 11th hour talks with the EU in Strasbourg.

Mrs May stated changes to the Irish backstop could not become permanent. President of the European Commission, Jean Claude Junker seemed to confirm May’s claims and said that she had delivered what Parliament had asked her to do. He did however go on to warn that if the deal was not voted through there would be “no third chance”.

There were two forms of documentation that were agreed this week in Strasbourg. One of which is a joint legally binding instrument on the withdrawal agreement which the United Kingdom gains the right to start a formal dispute against the EU if it tried to keep Britain tied to the Irish backstop permanently.

The other document is a joint statement regarding the future relationship between the UK and the EU which commits to replacing the backstop before December 2020.

Attorney General, Geoffery Cox will give his view on the legality of the new changes and whether they can be constituted as binding.

The deal will be debated throughout the day and the voting is due to take place this evening.

The news caused Sterling to make considerable gains against the majority of major currencies. Although many believe the deal still falls short of their expectations. Although the probability of May’s deal being voted through have increased it is by no means a foregone conclusion.

What’s next for Brexit if the vote is lost in Parliament?

If the vote fails we will witness a vote the following day on whether Parliament will be willing to leave the EU with no deal. I think this is highly unlikely considering how vocal many MPs have been about their discontent with this potential scenario.

If this is the case, we will then see a third vote on whether or not there should be an extension to the Brexit deadline, which I think is the likely outcome.

Although this has been factored into the exchange somewhat already I still think we will witness further gains if this is the outcome of the voting.

If you are sitting on Euros it may be wise to get in touch with your broker. If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote.

Pound vs euro forecast: Theresa May confirms meaningful vote will go ahead

GBP EUR Slumps on European Data and ECB Comments

The UK Government has confirmed that the meaningful vote will go ahead tomorrow, despite fears that more than 100 MPs could again vote against the Prime Minister’s deal.

There had been rumors that Theresa May would replace the meaningful vote with a conditional motion that would outline acceptable terms to deal with the Irish backstop. However, this was fiercely opposed by Remainers who expected that the Prime Minister would lose the support of the House of Commons if she didn’t honour the vote.

Tomorrow’s vote will be closely followed by another on Wednesday, when MPs will vote on whether to remove the option of a no deal Brexit. Then on Thursday, the House of Commons will vote on whether to extend Article 50.

An extension to Article 50 would not only mean that the UK does not leave the European Union on 29th March, but could result in the UK paying more in the divorce settlement, as the financial and legal demands of the EU increase.

Today’s GBP/EUR rate

The pound started the day lower against the euro today, but has now recouped earlier losses and the interbank GBP/EUR rate is now back above 1.16.

Few are expecting Theresa May to get her Brexit deal through Parliament tomorrow, but it’s quite feasible that the House of Commons could vote to remove a ‘no deal’ scenario and/or extend Article 50 later in the week. Both of these events could provide sterling with support, strengthening the pound against the euro.

Interest in selling the pound against the euro, and other major currencies is dwindling as markets bet that a ‘no deal’ Brexit scenario will be avoided. Despite the uncertainty and possible volatility this week, I would not be at all surprised to see the pound trading higher against the euro by Friday.

If you would like to discuss the factors affecting exchange rates, or have a question about buying foreign currency, feel free to use the form below to get in touch. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your enquiry.

Crucial week ahead for the Pound vs the Euro owing to votes in the House of Commons

GBPEUR: Sterling Loses Ground Ahead of Rates, Election

We are now just one day from potentially the biggest day of the year for Sterling Euro exchange rates as the House of Commons are due to meet to vote on the latest Brexit deal on offer by Theresa May.

Only last week the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox came back from Europe with little changes made to the current Irish backstop agreement and therefore it looks highly unlikely that the vote will go through tomorrow.

If this happens then the next step will be to vote on whether or not to look at voting in favour of a no deal Brexit, which is also highly unlikely to happen. This will then mean that the chances of Article 50 being extended go up and it will be interesting to see how this is reflected in Sterling exchange rates.

I think we could possibly see Sterling go in an upwards direction against the Euro if a no deal is completely removed from the debate as this will provide a lot of assurances for British business.

However, it does not remove the uncertainty as to how long the Brexit talks will continue so we could be in for a lot of movements on GBP/EUR exchange rates during the course of this week so make sure you’re well prepared to act quickly if you have a currency transfer to make.

As we saw towards the end of last week there was a lot of movement on Friday afternoon with Sterling Euro rates moving up and down by over half a cent owing to the uncertainty of this week’s potential vote.

Over the weekend some Tory MPs have urged the Prime Minister to potentially delay the vote, but with less than three weeks to go before the UK is due to leave the European Union, times is clearly running out so to delay this vote could cause huge problems politically for the Prime Minister.

With so much uncertainty this week concerning Pound Euro exchange rates we could see a lot of movement on rates making your currency transfer more or less expensive so if you would like a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound Sterling Forecast: Will the Pound strengthen further against the Euro?

GBPEUR Bounces on the Day with Limited Data Due

Brexit continues to be the key factor on Sterling value and I would expect current levels to remain until voting on Theresa May’s current Brexit deal begins which is due to take place before 12th March, although it is more than likely to take place on the day itself.

Unless the PM gains concessions from Brussels on the Irish border I think her Brexit deal will fail and will not be voted through by MPs. If this is the case a vote will be held the following day on whether or not Parliament will be willing to leave the EU without a deal.

I think this is unlikely and if that is the case we will then see a third vote the following day. This will concern whether or not there should be an extension to the March 29th deadline.
I think an extension will be the likely outcome and this could cause a further rise in the Pound’s value despite this being factored somewhat into current levels on GBP/EUR.

The PM could have something agreed behind closed doors with Jean-Claude Junker which could see an eleventh hour deal, but I feel this is less likely than an extension to Article 50. I believe the probability of a no deal has now dropped substantially.

Is now the best time to sell Euros?

If you are sitting on Euros with the hope of a large fall in the Pound I would be wary. You are essentially relying on a no deal scenario which now seems far less likely. Morgan Stanley stated recently there is less than 5% chance of a no deal Brexit scenario occurring and Parliament have been vocal their intention is to make sure this does not occur. There is the potential for movement in your favour as negotiations intensify, but I do not think there will be huge gains. The risk is if news filters through that an agreement has been reached on the Irish border we could see significant gains for the Pound which could prove costly.

If you are Euro seller and your funds are not yet available a forward contact should be considered. This essentially allows you to book your currency at current market levels with a 10% deposit and then specify a date to pay the balance.

If you would like to discuss anything you have read in this Pound to Euro forecast, or would like more information on GBP/EUR transfers, please use the form below to ask a question, I’ll respond personally to discuss your query.

GBP to AUD forecast: Further problems for the Australian dollar against sterling

GBP AUD Consolidates with UK Employment Due

The Australian dollar has lost further momentum against sterling as the latest Australian Growth numbers disappointed overnight. GDP for the quarter was released at 0.2% down 0.1% and GDP for the year fell by 0.2% to 2.3%. This data release puts further pressure on an economy that is already struggling.

The slowdown in China due to the ongoing trade war with the US is causing investment to slow in Australia. The housing market in particular is under severe pressure and the Reserve Bank of Australia have hinted at cutting interest rates in the near future. I find it difficult to see how the tide is going to turn anytime soon in Australia therefore I expect further weakness for the Australian dollar.

Since the start of the year, GBP/AUD exchange rates have increased by 10 cents. For clients that are emigrating down under, they are now receiving an additional AUD $40,000 on a £400,000 transfer. But what next?

March is key for Sterling exchange rates

The next 2 weeks could shape the UK economy for many years to come. UK Prime Minister Theresa May and the Attorney General Mr Cox are trying to get further concessions from the EU at present as it appears that further concessions are needed if MPs are to vote in favour of Theresa May’s Brexit deal on the 12th March. If it’s the case in the upcoming days the EU give further concession I expect the pound to continue to increase in value and GBP/AUD rates to breach 1.90 as a deal is likely to be stuck.

However, if Mr Cox fails to achieve further concessions, its unlikely Theresa May’s deal will be passed, therefore MPs will vote on whether the UK will crash out of the EU on the 13th March. It doesn’t appear that there is the appetite in Parliament for a crash out Brexit, therefore I don’t expect this to pass with a majority. Nevertheless, if this was to materialise the gains that the pound has made against the Australian dollar will diminish and I expect we could breach the lower points we saw throughout last year 1.60.

If my predictions come true, I expect MPs to be voting for the third day in a row as MPs will not vote in favour of Theresa May’s deal or a crash out, therefore they will be voting in favour to extend Article 50. If this happens this could cause the pound to rally further against the Aussie dollar as the chances of crashing out of the EU would have completely diminished.

If you would like to discuss anything you have read in my GBP to AUD forecast, or need more information on the events affecting GBP/AUD exchange rates, please feel free to get in touch with me by sending me a message using the form below. I will respond personally.

GBP/EUR rates: One week until the meaningful vote and the impact upon Sterling vs Euro

GBP EUR Stuck in Range at 1.1700 Level

Sterling has been trading close to a 2 year high against the Euro in the last week as it appears as though the latest Brexit news is helping to support the value of the Pound against a number of different currencies.

Will Article 50 be extended?

The likelihood is that we could see an extension to Article 50 and this has helped the Pound to increase as investors look to second guess what may happen in the next few weeks.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has suggested that she is willing to allow more time for the talks to progress and with just one week before the UK is set to hold its next ‘meaningful vote’ in the House of Commons we could be in for a very volatile period coming for Sterling exchange rates particularly against the Euro.

How will the Brexit vote affect GBP/EUR rates?

It has been made evident since early December that MPs are not happy with the current terms being offered by the Prime Minister, and with less than a month to go Theresa May is running out of time to get her proposed Brexit deal through.

If we see another defeat next week then this moves us to either the option of a ‘no deal’ Brexit or an extension. I personally cannot see a ‘no deal’ happening so in my mind the likelihood will be for an extension and I think this could move the Pound in an upwards direction against the Euro.

Further Sterling strength could be on the horizon

As we saw over two years ago when the original EU referendum took place, the reason why the Pound plummeted against the Euro was because of the risk to trade. An extension allows a period of relief and this is why I think the Pound could move up against the Euro in the next few weeks, providing some better opportunities for those looking to send money to Europe.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that I can offer you bank beating exchange rates when transferring currency. If you would like a free quote, or just has some questions about GBP/EUR rates, you can contact me directly using the form below. I look forward to hearing from you.

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