GBP/EUR rates: Pound makes further gains against the Euro

Pound remains steady despite poor UK economic data - Growth figures for key Eurozone economies out later this week

GBP/EUR rates have crept up again during early morning trading, with the Pound trading close to its high of 1.1368.

The Pound has seen its value increase against the single currency over recent days, despite UK Prime Minister Theresa May losing her key Brexit vote last week in the House of Commons and only just surviving a vote of no confidence in her leadership.

The Pound is managing to withstand any further losses despite the continuing lack of clarity on Brexit. Euro sellers may be considering the possibility that the single currency has maxed out its potential value against the Pound, under the current market conditions.

If the Euro failed to make any further inroads last week, is unlikely to see its value significantly increase against the Pound unless the UK is left in the unenviable position of exiting the single bloc without a deal in place.

Despite this remaining a potential outcome I do not feel it is the most likely scenario. Despite reports to the contrary regarding political jostling and scaremongering amongst senior politicians, neither the UK nor the EU want to leave on irreversibly bad terms. It will not be economically beneficial for either side and as such, I expect a deal to be struck ahead of the March 29th deadline.

How this deal will be achieved, or the parameters of it are yet to be fully divulged but any deal is likely to help cement Sterling’s position and could help boost its value, which remains marooned around the current levels for the most part, due to the on-going uncertainty surrounding the whole saga.

I would be very tempted to lock in any EUR sell positions ahead of the coming weeks, thus removing the potential risk of a downturn form the current highs. Longer-term I feel the Euro is likely to see its value start to decrease, as an economic slowdown and political uncertainty in many key Eurozone regions, could hamper any advancement for Euro exchange rates.

For further news on GBP/EUR exchange rates please feel free to use the form below to ask me a question. I’ll be happy to respond personally and answer your query.


Sterling gains vs the Australian Dollar owing to Brexit and the Australian property market

GBPAUD Forecast - Is the pound likely to make a move back towards 1.85?

As predicted in my previous article over the weekend the Pound briefly touched 1.80 against the Australian Dollar but has failed to maintain the levels just yet.

However, I think it is simply a matter of time as in the short term I think the Pound will be able to make a concerted effort to break past 1.80. This is good news for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds.

Brexit latest news

Prime Minister Theresa May has been speaking this afternoon about the latest update on Brexit and as yet has said little to spark any excitement in the foreign exchange markets.

Theresa May will be going back to the European Union to try and get some amendments to the current deal on offer but is this her just going through the motions?

The likelihood of extending Article 50 is one of the main reasons for Sterling’s strength in the last few days and this is why I think the Pound will be able to break past 1.80.

Problems with the Australian property market

Another reason why I think the Australian Dollar could be struggling is down to the problems in the housing market in Australia. Property prices in both Sydney and Melbourne have seen a fall in recent months. As a lot of Australians’ wealth is tied up in their homes, could this start to adversely affect consumer spending and then have a negative knock on effect on Australian GDP data?

With Australian unemployment coming out on Thursday morning, if this comes out lower than expected this could be the catalyst to see the Pound improve against the Australian Dollar.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for 16 years I am confident that not only can I save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank, but also help you with the timing of your transfer. If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote using the form below. I look forward to hearing from you.


Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast for the week ahead – Brexit tops the bill once again

Pound to Euro rate breaches 1.14 as EU vows to work with the UK on Brexit deal

The Pound has started the trading week off on the back foot against most major currencies, and we have seen a slight drop off against the Euro in Monday morning trading.

The markets are awaiting news on Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan B for Brexit, and the fall out that occcurs following it. It is unlikely that the new plan will have enough changes in it to turn heads in Parliament and with this in mind there are various ways that this scenario could pan out. The release of ‘Plan B’ is due at 15:30pm this afternoon.

With Brexit not having happened before it is hard to put a solid prediction on what happens next, but in my view it is looking increasingly likely that due to hitting a stalemate the Government may have to seek to extend Article 50 and to essentially ‘kick the can down the road’ whilst they attempt to negotiate a better deal or to work out other plans. These may include another referendum or potentially even not going ahead at all. I feel that either of these could lead to big problems within the U.K so they really are in a difficult position currently.

Parliament are due to vote on the new plan on Tuesday 29th January and should this once again not be approved then the clock is well and truly ticking. Chancellor Philip Hammond has been quick to reassure big business leaders that a ‘no deal’ Brexit will not take place, so in my eyes this only really leaves the option of a delay.

A delay to Article 50 will more than likely lead to the Pound gaining value. The reason Sterling exchange rates dropped significantly in 2016 was down to the referendum result and if there is the slightest hint that this may not happen then the Pound may recover some of those losses.

Economic data this week

Tomorrow we have key unemployment data for the U.K at 09:30am. No major changes to the current unemployment rate of 4.1% are expected but should the release be outside of expectations this could move Sterling exchange rates.

A flurry of European economic data is out over the course of Thursday morning, with Manufacturing and Services data out at 10:00am the most notable.

Later in the day we have possibly the most important release for the Euro, with the ECB interest rate decision and press conference at 12:45pm and 13:30pm respectively.

No changes to interest rates are expected but all eyes will be on head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi and any comments he makes on future economic policy. This can be a large market mover for the Euro should any suggestions that big changes are ahead, so if you have the need to exchange Euros or Pounds then you need to ensure you have your eye on the exchange rates over the course of Thursday afternoon.

Pound to Euro exchange rate volatility

Exchange rates move every second throughout the day, so it is extremely important that you time your currency purchase correctly. This can make the difference of hundreds if not thousands of pounds to you. If you would like my assistance then I have over a decade of experience in helping clients move money internationally, mainly for property purchases or sales but we can help people moving money for any reason.

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Pound to Euro rate hits two month high

GBP to Euro forecast: Theresa May now in a worse position to negotiate

May’s landslide defeat on deal means she may have to consider other options

Sterling has made gains against the Euro hitting the highest levels in over two months. The Pound to Euro rate breached 1.14 overnight.

This was due to the chances of a no deal now seeming less likely. It was deemed that the 230 vote defeat on Theresa May’s Brexit deal was by such a landslide that the government may have to look at different options, such as a second referendum.

I think the likely outcome would be a delay on Article 50. How much use this will be is yet to be known. Brussels have stated on several occasions they are unwilling to make any concessions on the current deal. Mrs May delayed the original vote on her deal in December due to the lack of faith in getting the current deal through Parliament. The delay was meant to provide Theresa May with time to negotiate better terms with the EU, she was stonewalled.

If Brussels stance is not going to change then the delay would only benefit a no deal scenario as there would be more time to prepare. Brussels has also stated that they would only accept an extension if there was to be a second referendum.

If a second referendum is announced expect Sterling to rally, current polls suggest a victory for the remainers. A second referendum would boost investor confidence and in turn the pound.

If it is the case that there is a delay for further negotiations I would expect the Pound to Euro rate to remain at current buoyancy levels with 1.15 remaining a key resistance point as it has been for more than 18 months.

I think Theresa May has been using the no deal scenario as ammunition to gain concessions from the EU. She has tried demonstrating the willingness for a no deal by organising such things as the lorry trial in Kent, this may well be posturing. The problem you have is many in Parliament particularly Jeremy Corbyn want a no deal Brexit scenario ruled out completely, this however would ruin one of the only cards Mrs May is holding. Morgan Stanley believe there is now less than 5% chance of a no deal.

It looks like Parliament don’t want a deal in general and Brussels’ offer is well below par and they are unwilling to come back to the negotiating table. No one wants a no deal Brexit so despite many feeling a second referendum would be undiplomatic it may be the wisest option.

Personally, I think Brexit was mis-sold and there was a complete lack of preparation. I think a second referendum would be diplomatic now we have an informed public.

Eurozone has key issues which could result in Euro weakness

The Euro has its own problems. Tensions continue to rise from the gilets jaunes situation and a large section of the French population are backing demonstrations. This is not only hurting the French economy, but is also causing political uncertainty which is also hitting the Euro.

Quantitative Easing has now ended and it will be interesting to see how the Euro copes considering the debt situation in Italy and Greece. Germany, which is considered to be the engine room for the bloc is also set to enter a recession.

The Euro could be set to have a tough time against the majority of major currencies, let us be careful about including the pound in the statement however.

Brexit uncertainty will continue to weigh down the pound and I would be surprised to see the Pound’s advance continue, we have already lost half a cent during this morning’s trading. I think 1.15 will hold up as a resistance point.

If you are buying euros in the short to medium term it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted using the form below:


Is Brexit moving in the right direction and could this help the Pound against the Euro?

Pound close to 18 month highs against the Euro but Brexit continues to dominate exchange rates

Prime Minister Theresa May once again survived the vote of no confidence with a win of 19 votes after failing to get her Brexit deal through earlier this week.

Clearly this week has been a very testing time for Theresa May and her government but it is clear that the Conservatives and the DUP are sticking together in order to avoid a general election being called.

Since the vote of no confidence Theresa May has called on party leaders and other MPs to come together to discuss the terms and to try and offer an alternative to that currently being offered.

However, opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn has said that before he will join the talks a no-deal Brexit must be ruled out, which Theresa May has yet to confirm. The good news for the Pound against the Euro is that the market has improved for anyone looking to send money to Europe and although the Labour leader has still yet to join the party things are progressing, slowly.

With Theresa May due to release the ‘Plan B’ on Monday this is likely to include terms of the Irish backstop which has been a real concern for many MPs.

Ultimately, what Theresa May is looking for is a concerted and joint effort across all parties, but with politics, the issue is that, if parties start coming together with the same ideas what makes them stand out and appear different to the voting public?

In the short term I think the Pound will hold on to its gains and it will be interesting to see what happens to the GBP/EUR exchange rates on Monday when Theresa May announces her next plan. I think it may get some more votes than this week’s result and although the difference will be limited I think we could see some gains for the Pound against the Euro.

Meanwhile, European Council President Donald Tusk has stated that he wants further clarity from the UK and it appears as though the European Union is preparing for the likelihood that the UK will ask them to extend Article 50 in order to try and get a resolution without the clock ticking too fast.

Although the Brexit talks are still stalling, the chances of a no deal Brexit appear very slim and the likelihood is that Article 50 will be extended and the Pound is gaining support owing to these reasons.

Having worked as a currency broker since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you exchange rates that can beat the high street banks. For a free quote when buying currency please contact me using the form below with a brief outline of your requirement and I will respond to you personally.


Pound to Euro Forecast: Brexit Uncertainty Continues Following PM’s House of Commons Defeat

Pound to Euro Forecast: Brexit Uncertainty Continues Following PM's House of Commons Defeat

UK Prime Minster Theresa May suffered a heavy defeat in the House of Commons last night, as UK MPs voted against her Brexit deal with the EU. This means that the agreement she had struck is now obsolete. So where does this now leave the UK and the Pound moving forward?

Pound to Euro forecast: Sterling prepared ahead of vote

In truth, last night’s result was widely anticipated and Theresa May’s 432 to 202 loss wouldn’t have sent any shockwaves through the markets. Looking at Pound to Euro rates and the Euro failed to make any further gains from yesterday’s high, with the Pound in fact gaining support following the House of Commons result and Theresa May’s subsequent speech.

Sterling hit 1.1308 earlier this morning and despite the Euro finding support around this threshold, it is likely that investors had fully priced in yesterday’s result ahead of time, which is why the Euro failed to make any further gains.

What next for Brexit and Pound to Euro rates?

How things will develop from here is going to be inextricably linked to how Brexit talks now progress. The PM will face a vote of no confidence tonight and whilst I believe she will win this vote, the markets are still no clearer in understanding what Brexit will ultimately mean and in what form it will finally be delivered.

It may be that the PM will be able to go back to the EU with a stronger hand, knowing that any failure to show some concessions will likely lead to a no-deal exit. With the March 29th deadline fast approaching, it is clear that something has got to shift if we are going to see a deal agreed, although I have say my optimism that this would be the final outcome is fading fast.

Another option would be an extension to Article 50 or possibly even a second referendum, but I think is unlikely based on yesterday’s upturn for the Pound despite the negative result. Euro sellers should be considering their position, as a case could now be made that they could have reached their peak based on the current market conditions.

If you would like to discuss anything you have read in my Pound to Euro forecast or would like more news on GBP/EUR rates please feel free to use the form below to ask me a question. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your query.


Pound to Euro Forecast – Theresa May wins the vote which gives the Pound a boost against the Euro

Pound to Euro Forecast: Brexit Uncertainty Continues Following PM's House of Commons Defeat

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast we look at the events of this week and the factors affecting exchange rates. Prime Minister Theresa May has managed to survive the vote of no confidence yesterday evening with a majority of 83 votes and this has helped the Pound to Euro exchange rate.

The result showed 200-117 which highlights discontent in the Party but with a relatively strong majority this has given her the support, at least in the short term to lead the Party forward. She did however admit that she wouldn’t be standing for the next general election due to take place in 2022.

Indeed, the vote showed that she now has more votes in favour compared to during her leadership campaign a couple of years ago.

Theresa May has now gone to attend the EU summit in Brussels with leaders expected to arrive at around lunchtime. The main agenda point will clearly be that of Brexit and EU council President Donald Tusk has suggested that the EU are prepared to discuss further terms and perhaps adopt a different conclusion.

Brexit latest news

One of the main sticking points of the current deal on offer is that of the Irish backstop arrangement, which the DUP will categorically not support. Unless something can be changed I think the discussions will remain at a stalemate.

The real problem for the future of Brexit is that the House of Commons appear to be opposed to this deal and seem likely to oppose any future deals, which puts the Brexit in doubt.

With just over three months to agree terms the UK is running out of time to get things organised and I think the UK may even in time consider revoking Article 50 if they are unable to get the Brexit deal through Parliament before the end of March.

Theresa May’s survival is good news for the Pound to Euro forecast

The good news for those looking to send money to Europe though is that as Theresa May has managed to survive the no confidence vote this has helped the Pound gain some support after its collapse when Theresa May delayed the Brexit vote earlier this week.

In the short term I think we could see some further respite for the Pound as the European Central Bank are due to meet later on today. If the tone at the press conference is rather dovish I think we could see further gains for the Pound vs the Euro.

For further information or a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly using the form below and I look forward to hearing from you.


Leadership challenge and the impact on the Pound to US Dollar rate

GBP/USD Forecast: Will the pound lose more ground against the US dollar?

In today’s Pound to US Dollar forecast we look at the factors effect the exchange rate this week, with some breaking news regarding Theresa May. It has been announced this morning that current Prime Minister Theresa May will be facing a vote of no confidence in her leadership this evening. The news comes after it was announced that 48 letters have been sent to the 1922 Bank Bench Committee to ask for a leadership challenge to take place.

If she manages to win tonight then another challenge cannot come for at least 12 months but if she, loses we would then see a Tory leadership contest that she would not be able to stand in.

Some suggestions are that even if she only wins by a small amount then she may even resign but personally speaking owing to her bullish personality I cannot see her standing down.

The real problem for the timeline of Brexit is that if she is removed from power then it will be extremely difficult for another Prime Minister to take over the Brexit process to ensure that the UK withdraws from the European Union by 29th March.

*** Breaking news – Theresa May has just spoken outside Downing Street and once again reiterated her commitment to her current position and her commitment to ensuring she will always serve in the national interest. ***

Pound to US Dollar rate: Pound has positive reaction

The Pound has reacted favourably against the US Dollar this morning after falling to its lowest level in 20 months during yesterday’s trading session.

This is partially to do with short term profit taking but also the Pound has found support as May has once again demonstrated her dogged determination to stay in her position.

Theresa May has said, “we are making progress after meeting with European leaders yesterday” and that “a new leader would have to extend or rescind Article 50”. These comments have given the Pound support but with tonight’s vote we could see a lot of volatility on Pound to US Dollar exchange rates later on so make sure you’re well prepared.

I personally think she will survive the vote and if so this could see the Pound improve but if she loses this could see the Pound fall as it will present us with a lot of uncertainty going in to the end of the year.

For a free quote when buying or selling US Dollars, or to discuss Pound to US Dollar rates in more detail please feel free to contact me directly using the form below. I look forward to hearing from you.


Brexit deal agreed with EU: What does this mean for Pound Euro exchange rates?

GBP to Euro forecast: Theresa May now in a worse position to negotiate

Over the weekend the U.K took one step closer to Brexit, with members of the EU meeting to agree Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement. After 18 months of playing cat and mouse and sitting around the negotiating table the two sides have finally come to a compromise. What could this mean for Pound Euro exchange rates?

So far we have seen very little movement at the start of the trading week, many may have thought that Sterling exchange rates may have shot up, but this stage of the process being agreed had been fairly expected. There were a few wobbles earlier in the week as Spain had threatened to veto the meeting over Gibraltar, but those concerns were swiftly ironed out.

Parliament Brexit vote expected 12th December

The next move for the Pound will most likely be down to the political picture in the U.K and what we hear from members of Parliament and the Conservative Party in the next few weeks. It appears that the aim is for the crucial Parliament vote to take place two weeks today on Monday 12th December. In the build-up to this vote I would expect a huge amount of jawboning and commenting from various members as to how they feel the vote will go.

We must remember that should Theresa May’s deal be voted down, or should speculation be rife that there is a high chance of it being voted down then Pound Euro exchange rates could drop significantly. The reason this could happen is that we are in such a late stage now that should this deal not go through Parliament the chances of the U.K ending up in a no deal scenario will be high.

On top of this, Theresa May has also refused to rule out a resignation should her proposed deal not be approved. This could see a great deal of Political uncertainty in the U.K and once again that would put strain on Pound Euro exchange rates.

Sterling strength expected is Brexit approved by Parliament

Should the deal be approved then we may see a jump in the value of the Pound, as this would mean we are one step closer to everything moving forward. As mentioned earlier in this report the markets move on speculaton as well as fact. I would expect the Pound Euro rate to be fairly volatile in the next two weeks. This will throw up some great buying and selling opportunities along the way.

If you are in the process of buying or selling an overseas property and you would like our assistance with getting the very best rate of exchange and timing the transfer, then feel free to fill in the form below or make an enquiry on our site and we will be more than happy to get in touch to speak with you about your personal situation.

Pound Euro exchange rates: Economic data this week

We do not have a huge amount of economic data out this week, this is quite common for the end of the calendar month, but there are a few pieces to look out for.

On Wednesday we have banking stress test results in the U.K along with a general financial stability report. Thursday brings German employment figures along with some European Consumer Confidence and an EU financial stability review. Friday rounds the week off with the EU unemployment rate, expected to have seen a slight improvement, and inflation figures, both released at 10:00am.

Personally, I expect that Brexit will be the key driver for Pound Euro exchange rates over the course of the week. From initial research it does appear that there are many that are prepared to vote against Theresa May’s proposed deal, so be prepared that Sterling could have a tricky week should the negativity surrounding the Brexit deal gather momentum.

If you have any foreign exchange requirements, be it buying or selling a property, business requirements or quite simply moving money from one currency to another, bank to bank then it is well worth you contact me personally. Not only can I assist you with information to help the timing of your transfer but I can also ensure you get a market leading rate of exchange too.

Feel free to get in touch for a no obligation discussion about your specific needs by filling in the form below and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.


Pound Dollar Forecast: EU Summit to impact Pound to Dollar Rates

Pound rises above 1.30 against the Dollar - Exchange rate latest

Brexit news causes the Pound to weaken against the US Dollar

The US Dollar has once again improved against the Pound dropping almost 3% in a week or the difference of £4,600 on a currency transfer of US$200,000.

The latest news on Brexit and the issues surrounding the proposed draft Brexit deal has not gone well for the Pound in relation to a number of different currencies including versus the US Dollar.

Prime Minister Theresa May is due in Brussels over the weekend as the UK and the European Union aim to organise a deal prior to this Sunday’s summit of European leaders. Behind the scenes, Downing Street is hopeful that an agreement could be reached prior to the EU Summit on Sunday.

At the moment the draft deal between the UK and the European Union has already been agreed and although some changes are still expected to be be made to the deal, both parties have suggested that the changes will be relatively minor.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has claimed that she will not attend this weekend’s meeting unless the text has been agreed prior to the meeting.

Pound to Dollar Forecast: Will GBP/USD move back towards 1.30?

Fears still remain over a no deal Brexit so if the Summit goes well this weekend we could see the Pound to Dollar rates head back towards 1.30.

With Thanksgiving being celebrated today in the US the markets may be relatively quiet so if you’re in the process of buying or selling US Dollars it may be worth buying if you’re happy with current rates to avoid the potential volatility when US markets reopen again tomorrow.

We end the week with US manufacturing and services data published at 2:45pm tomorrow. Both releases are expected to improve so we could see further strength for the US Dollar prior to the end of the week.

Clearly though it will be this weekend’s EU summit meeting that is likely to have a huge effect on the Pound vs the US Dollar rate so make sure you’re well prepared for a very busy start to Monday morning. For a free quote then contact me directly via the form below or by calling the trading floor on +44 1494 787 478 and asking for Tom Holian.


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