Sterling slips slightly ahead of key inflationary data

GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review July 16  

The Pound has lost a minor bit of ground against a basket of major currencies in early morning trading as investors anticipate Mervyn King to have to send a letter to the government for the 8th month running – He has to do this to explain himself when inflation is above 3%.

Although higher inflation generally leads to a higher chance of interest rate hikes in this case it may not always be seen as postiive as the higher inflation gets effectively the general public in the U.K are taking a pay cut as everything costs more yet wages are highly unlikely to be increased.

Unless there is a major change to the expected data then I do not forsee huge changes to the value of the Pound today however as regular readers will be aware absolutely anything can happen on the currency markets and surprises are no surprise these days!

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

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The Pound has had a mixed day against most major currencies, losing even further ground against the Dollar yet still holding up in the high 1.21s against the Euro.

No major data has been released today and it appears that the markets are moving very much off the back of risk appetite.

Do you fancy yourself to be able to predict what the GBP/EUR rate will be on 31st August at close of play?? Our friends at Foreign Currency Direct are running a competition which is completely free to enter and takes just a minute of your time… I have guessed 1.2297 but feel free to comment on this post and see if you can get closer than me….. If anyone gets it spot on from this site then I may offer a bonus prize as it shows the high calibre of Pound Sterling Forecast readers!

Don’t delay – have a go today and feel free to tell everyone you work with and all of your friends!!!

Sterling US Dollar Exchange Rates Close to 6 Month High

Sterling dollar exchange rates have hit a six month high in the last few days. At the time of writing the pound is down marginally for today, but overall holding relatively firm v’s the dollar.  A lack of action from the Bank of England today (keeping interest rates on hold), has meant the market has been relatively stable with only a 1 cent movement from high to low.

Looking a head it’s difficult to predict cable movement (GBPUSD) but it is worth bearing that we are at a six month high if you do need to buy USD! Sometimes it’s best not to gamble and I think now is the time, sterling is up 4.5% in the last month, and around 11% from the lows of 2010 in May.  

In terms of a forecast, I think it really depends how the UK economy fairs.  We have a slowdown in the US priced into current rates, so the main issue for sterling is that the budget cuts and public spending reductions are coming in to force in the next few months.  These could have a very negative effect on exchange rates as it may lead to:

  • Reduced consumer confidence
  • Reduced consumer spending
  • Higher public sector unemployment
  • Lower levels of GDP growth, and possibly GDP contraction

At present there isn’t a great deal of focus on these cuts, which is why the pound has held up around a six month high recently.  I personally think we could see things head back toward the low 1.50’s, so my overall feeling would be not to hold on too long if you need to buy USD.  For more information, fill in the form on the right.

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Poundsterlingforecast.com has been running now since April and although I only planned to make a site that kept my clients up to date with what is going on in the markets it is turned into a real hit.

Now geting around 5000 hits a month it is clear that people out there want to know in basic, simple terms what may happen in the next few months and this can make a huge difference on any upcoming purchases be it for business or personal transactions…. a 4% movement on a £200,000 property purchase can make that property abroad £8000 cheaper or potentially more expensive so you have to make a calculated decision at the right time.

Although I cannot fully advise I have a dedicated team giving their personal opinion based on market knowledge as to what the Pound may do against the major currencies and hopefully this gives you all a helping hand!!

If you do have a transaction to make I am Associate Director of a specialist foreign exchange brokerage saving clients up to 4% on transactions over using their high street bank whilst giving clients award winning customer service making sure your funds are there on time and with no hassle…

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If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Sterling continues strength against Dollar and Swiss Franc – holding steady on Euro

The Pound has made yet again further gains on the Dollar as it heads onwards and upwards towards the 1.60 mark.

It appears investors are now starting to pull their funds out of the so called safer havens of the Swiss Franc and U.S Dollar and take a punt of perceived ‘riskier’ currencies such as Sterling following better than expected GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data out just over a week ago.

The economy grew by 1.1% in the second quarter of 2010 and this has pushed the possibility of a double dip recession that little bit further away where as it appears to be geting closer and closer in the U.S

Be aware though that a common saying on the currency market is that when the U.S sneezes the U.K catches a cold – So my personal opinion is that Sterling may climb a little further over the Dollar and push through 1.60 however it may find it hard to push on much further following that and could be range bound from 1.55 to 1.65 for quite a long time now.

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

GBP exchange rate rises against the USD

The pound has seen some excellent gains against the US Dollar reaching a high of 1.5626. This is the highest level for 3 months. Sterling exchanged rates were helped on their way due to some positive retail figures which showed that sales grew at there fastest pace in three years. This has followed on from the much stronger than anticipated GDP figures that came out last week all contributing to the pound strengthening.

Across the pond the data has not been as strong as in the UK and it seems that the pound has the momentum of potentially pushing on should we continue to see positive signs coming out of the economy. 

Today the BoE will be answering questions from a treasury select commitee to see their view if the economy will reflect signs of ongoing recovery.

If further comments come out regarding any interest rate rises then we may see the pound continue to gain against a host of major currencies.

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

The pound strengthens against most major currencies!!!

Now that the dust has settled after the excellent UK GDP figures, the pound has seen significant gains of over 1% against host of major currencies. Below shows the positive movements for the pound as of 13:50 BST.

GBP-USD +1.14%            GBP-EUR +1.00%                  GBP-JPY +1.47%

GBP-AUD +1.08%          GBP-NZD + 0.80%                 GBP-ZAR +0.93 

GBP-CHF +1.49%           GBP-CAD + 1.12%                   GBP-SEK +1.16

Now GDP showed that the UK economy grew much more than anticipated in the last quarter. In fact it grew at its fastest pace in four years. This data will now raise doubts about how long the bank of England will leave interest rates at an all time low. When ever there is popular data out that may indicate an interest rate rise in the future you normally see the currency in question strengthen. This is what has happened to the pound today. The question being now is how long will the spike last?

After the vigorous budget cuts there are many analysts that still predict the UK economy will struggle to grow by the end of this year. All eyes will now turn to the banking stress tests which are due out at 5.00pm today. If you have a requirement to buy or sell any currency this release could be vital. if you wish to secure your funds before this potential volatile time just contact us via the enquiry form and we will come back to you immediately.

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Pound Sterling Strength GDP Figure for the U.K much better than expected

A quick update from me as I have plenty of clients to call and trade due to the U.K GDP figures coming out much better than expected.

Analysts had thought a figure of 0.6% would be released however the actual figure was 1.1% – a lot higher than expected and this has led to Sterling gains accross the board.

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Sterling Gains v’s EUR, DKK and USD

The Bank of England interest rate decision has given the pound a small boost against the Euro, US Dollar and Danish Krone.  Although the minutes didn’t really suggest a rate hike is likely in the future the continued stance of one member voting for a hike seems to be giving the market a little confidence in the belief that UK rates will rise this year.

Personally I think this is unlikely as I feel unemployment will reduce inflation and then there will be no need for a hike.  However in the short term this is great news as it does help the GBP, and exchange rates against some currencies have improved. 

For the pound, focus now turns to the Retail sales out tomorrow for the UK and the GDP figures on Friday.  This could cause volatility for sterling exchange rates, so if you think you may need to exchange currency fill in the form to the left and one of the PSF bloggers can keep you up to date with market movements!

Pound Sterling Forecast and update for the week so far – interesting news on Canadian and Australian Dollar

Sterling has had a reasonably positive start to the week as predicted in my previous post gaining ground against a variety of major currencies, however losing against the Canadian Dollar.

The losses against the CAD were surprising, as during the week they did raise interest rates over there by 0.25% (however this was widely expected therefore didn’t lead to much strength) but at the same time they also revised their expected GDP (economic growth forecast) down for the rest of the year.

In Australia, the wheels are now fully in motion for an election over there expected on the 21st August  – we are all aware just how important the election was for the U.K and indeed the Pound so I would imagine we should see the same volatility for the Australian Dollar over the next 6 weeks.

Should they head for a hung Parliament then we could see the AUD weaken leading up to the election or should things lead to a majority victory then the AUD may gain much more strength as political certainty is one of the main drivers for the strength of a currency.

Once again there are important economic releases for the U.K every morning this week so if you have an upcoming transaction to do then it is imperative you let one of the currency experts here at Pound Sterling Forecast know so they can keep you up to date with what is happening in the markets – Just fill in the form on the right hand side of this page and someone will contact you shortly.

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