Pound Sterling Strength: Sterling Making Impressive Gains Against the Euro

Was the Pound’s Sell-Off “Overdone”?

Pound Sterling forecast: Sterling has continued where it left off last week, with further gains against all the major currencies. The Pound had its strongest week of the year, making impressive gains against the Euro in particular.

GBP/EUR rates reached a two year high

GBP/EUR rates hit a fresh two year high, moving through 1.17, providing those clients holding the Pound with some much needed respite after months of stagnation.

The catalyst for this upturn was largely down to a reduced chance of a no-deal Brexit and a delay to the planned exit date of March 29th. With the current deadline fast approaching, action and not words is certainly required.

I will remain cautiously optimistic at this point, due to the fact this is not the first time we have heard that progress is being made. However, despite the previous false dawn, it does finally seem as though UK Prime Minister is making headway in her talks with the EU regarding a softening of their current stance on the Irish backstop. This is key to persuading MPs to vote in favour of her Brexit deal, when the next “meaningful” vote takes place on March 12th.

The Euro did find some support above 1.17 but only managed minimal gains and with the current GBP/EUR levels trading just under this threshold, any further progress this week is likely to drive Sterling value back up.

Those selling Euros will be disappointed at last week’s developments but may in time still look back on the current levels as offering fair value, especially when they consider the history on the GBP/EUR pair.

Any major realignment for the single currency is likely to dependent on a no-deal Brexit and with this scenario now looking less likely, I do not anticipate a move back towards the post-referendum highs.

As such, Euro sellers may wish to consider their positions ahead of what could be a period of relative downturn, assuming that Brexit talks do finally yield a positive outcome.

For up-to-date news on what is impacting GBP/EUR rates, or to discuss anything you have read in today’s Pound to Euro forecast, please feel free to complete the form below to get in touch. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your questions.

GBP to EUR rates: Pound remains stable in 1.16s against Euro – Will the Pound keep rising?

GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review June 25th   

The Pound has had one of the best weeks seen since the referendum, making gains against all major currencies as Sterling has come well and truly back into fashion, well at least for the time being!

Investors and speculators have found an increased demand for Sterling and this has given the Pound a welcome boost for those looking to buy property overseas or for business owners that buy their stock in foreign currency.

The main reason behind the rise appears to be positive vibes around the city that it is now highly unlikely that the UK will walk the plank with a ‘no deal’ Brexit and it appears that any of the other avenues seem to be leading to Sterling strength.

We now have a key 2 weeks ahead for the UK and indeed for Sterling exchange rates. I would personally expect a lot of market volatility during this period, which way depends on how the situation for Theresa May pans out but if I had to predict myself I would not be surprised to see a little more Sterling strength.

Having worked in the currency markets for over 11 years now though nothing surprises me and the markets often tend to ‘swim against the tide’ and do everything that they can to prove the majority wrong, so there could still be situations ahead that cause the Pound to come under pressure too.

If you have a large transfer pending then it is important to consider all of the options available to you, there are various contract types that you can take advantage of to try and protect yourself from adverse market movements.

My personal opinion on any situation like this is that it is key to hedge your risk and to protect yourself, even if you do not move to book out all of your currency the sensible approach is to ensure that you lock some of your requirement in while the Pound is at multi-month and in some cases multi-year highs.

If you have the need to exchange currency in the near future and you would like to speak to me directly then you are welcome to get in touch by filling in the form below and I will be happy to get in touch with you personally.

GBP to AUD Forecast: Australia’s Coal Exports put in Jeopardy

GBP to AUD Forecast - Brexit Leads to Constitutional Crisis

Australian Dollar suffers due to heavy reliance on China

The Australian Dollar has lost ground of late due to coal trade between China and Australia. Last week we witnessed China put a ban on coal imports from Australia which caused a drop in investor confidence as coal is one of Australia’s primary exports along with iron ore.

It has been reported that five harbours in China will no longer allow coal to be cleared.

The Australian PM, Scott Morrison has attempted to quell the situation stating that the move from the Chinese does not point to a souring of their trade relationship. China has also denied deliberately targeting Australian coal imports stating that reports are false.

It is still unclear whether Australian coal has been banned or whether it is taking a longer than usual to clear through Chinese customs. There is the theory that this is a political warning shot following Australia banning Chinese firm Huawei from it’s 5G network due to security concerns. Keep an eye on this situation if you have a trade involving the Aussie Dollar as this has the potential to cause volatility.

US / China trade talks important for AUD forecast

It is also important to keep an eye on the US / China trade war. The Trump administration has recently hinted that he could potentially delay further tariffs on Chinese exports, which slightly eased investor concerns.

China have stated in the press that talks are showing “great progress” backing up Donald Trump’s positive comments. This is good news for the Australian Dollar as any slowdown in Chinese growth can hit the Australian economy due to Australia’s heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s exports.

GBP/AUD Forecast

Sterling has made gains as positive news emerges on Brexit and the possibility of a no deal diminishing. I think Sterling will remain fragile however until we have firm news on the main point of contention, the Irish border. If you have to buy AUD in the short term you are currently in a strong position close to 1.84.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

If you would like my help I can be contacted directly by filling out the form below. I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP/USD exchange rates move back above 1.30 as US FED softens interest rate stance

GBP USD Slips Ahead of BoE Rate Decision

GBP/USD exchange rates have move backed above 1.30 this week, with the Pound now finding plenty of support around this key threshold for the pair.

Whilst GBP has yet to make any aggressive move above this level, those clients holding the Pound will be relieved to see it moving back towards some of the highs of the past six months.

This improvement has come despite the UK seemingly being no closer to agreeing a Brexit deal with the EU, ahead of the impending deadline next month. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is still trying to reopen negotiations with Brussels over the withdrawal agreement, with the Irish backstop being the most contentious issue it would seem.

The EU currently remain unmoveable in their stance and have stated on multiple occasions that they will not reopen talks and that there is no room for further negotiation over the Irish border issue. Whether these are hardball negotiation tactics or not is clearly the key question that the UK negotiating team will be asking themselves but at this moment, the chances of a deal being made by the March 29th deadline see unlikely at best.

This leads me to believe that investor confidence in the UK economy and ultimately the Pound cannot have been raised significantly, based on the continued uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

Fed softens stance on interest rate rises

This week’s move may be a market reaction to the recent comments made by the US Fed, indicating they were intended to reduce the pace of their interest rate hikes during the course of 2019.

This has cooled investors risk appetite for the USD, which in turn has then seen its value weaken slightly. This has inadvertently boosted Sterling’s value sufficiently for it to move back above 1.30.

Whether this move is sustainable will depend on external factors surrounding Brexit talks and any further softening of the UK monetary policy stance but with an extension to Article 50 now looking increasingly the most likely outcome, could we be in a further docile period as the markets to decipher their longer-term expectations for GBP/USD exchange rates.

For more information on the factors affecting GBP/USD exchange rates to be aware of, feel free to complete the form below to get in touch. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your questions.

Pound to Euro forecast: GBP to EUR Finds Support over 1.15

A Rollarcoaster Week for GBP EUR - Weekly Review June 18th 

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast we look at the recent GBP to EUR strength amidst a week full of meetings between British and EU leaders fine tuning the terms of the Brexit withdrawal agreement. Rates for GBP to EUR have risen over 1.15 again in the hope that a new agreement on the legal terms of the Irish backstop can be reached.

British politics is seeing a very interesting time at present and this week has seen a number of defections from both the Labour Party and Conservative Party to an independent group.

This is important as it changes the balance in the House of Commons and could make it harder for the minority Government in power to push through key votes in Parliament. As such a general election does move one step closer if there remains a stalemate in the House of Commons and it is unable to push its business through. Rates for GBP to EUR are likely to see a volatile few weeks ahead at this important Brexit juncture and with all the political uncertainties that go with it.

A meaningful vote on Brexit is expected to take place next Wednesday and should determine where GBP to EUR rates head next. This is the next milestone ahead of the 29th March withdrawal date.

Pound to Euro forecast: Will Euro exchange rates weaken further?

Euro exchange rates don’t have the brightest outlook with Italy in recession and a very gloomy outlook for the German auto sector. This morning sees the release of Purchasing Managers Index numbers for the manufacturing and services sector which should give some projection as to the future health of the Eurozone economy.

EU inflation data tomorrow may also influence EUR to GBP rates and has been a major concern for the EU in recent years. The European Central Bank (ECB) have been battling with weak inflation for a sustained period and today’s ECB minutes from the January meeting may offer some clues as to the central bank’s thinking. The markets had been expecting to see the first interest rate hike towards the end of 2019, but with an economic slowdown both in the EU and globally then this in my view is starting to look distinctly unlikely and could result in Euro weakness.

If you have any questions about my Pound to Euro forecast please feel free to use the form below to contact me directly. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your query.

GBP/EUR rate breaks 1.15 once again: All eyes on May and Juncker’s meeting today

GBP/EUR rate breaks 1.15 once again: All eyes on May and Juncker's meeting today

Yesterday afternoon GBP exchange rates were buoyed by the news that today there is a key meeting that could help push through a deal. We’re now just over 5 weeks from the due date for Brexit and without a deal in place at this stage, the markets are paying very close attention to negotiations.

The UK’s Prime Minister, Theresa May has already arranged a deal with the EU although it’s so far failed to pass through the Houses of Parliament. Theresa May doesn’t seem confident going into the vote and after postponing the initial date of the vote she lost by a record margin. Her intention now is to make amendments to the deal despite the EU refusing so far, and then seeing her deal voted through successfully. This is of course influencing the Pound’s value and it’s likely that we could see the GBP/EUR rate fluctuate heavily once again before the next ‘meaningful vote’ which is scheduled for the 27th at the moment.

This date could be amended like the previous one was, but those of our clients and readers planning on making a transfer involving the Pound and the Euro should be aware of this as there could be an impact on the rate both in the lead up and after the vote.

Data is once again light today, so I expect the meeting and any updates afterwards to be the biggest influence of the GBP/EUR rate today.

Tomorrow morning there could also be movement for EUR pairs as there will be inflation data released in the morning for both Germany, France and the EU as a whole. If you would like to be updated in the event of a major market movement for the pair do feel free to register your interest as the pair could be in for a busy few weeks of trading.

If you would like to be kept up to date on the GBP/EUR rate, or would like to discuss anything you have read in this article, do feel free to get in touch using the form below.

Should I buy my euros now, if I need to buy before March 29th?

GBP EUR Stuck in Range at 1.1700 Level

With March 29th fast approaching, clients that are looking to buy euros before the UK leaves the EU have a decision to make. The two options they have are to hold off hoping UK Prime Minister Theresa May reaches a deal with the EU and MPs within the House of Commons, or trade now as a ‘crash out’ no deal Brexit looks more likely.

Will Article 50 be extended?

Yesterday Theresa May gave MPs an update in regards to the state of the Brexit negotiations and the leader of the opposition went on the attack. Jeremy Corbyn continued to state that Theresa May is running down the clock in order to force MPs to back a deal in the final hour of negotiations.

My personal opinion is that I believe it’s unlikely the UK will crash out of the EU with no deal. However, I also don’t believe a deal will be reached by the 29th of March and an extension of Article 50 is the most likely outcome.

Therefore for clients buying euros, recent history tells us when we approach this kind of event, the pound is sold off due to the uncertainty. Sterling exchange rates fall making euros more expensive to buy. In addition, recent UK economic data has also raised concerns.

The Bank of England announced that they expect 2019 to be the slowest year of growth since 2009. This was supported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures which were released at 0.4% lower than expected.

Couple the Brexit negotiations with the poor UK economic data, and I believe clients that are buying euros before March 29th should buy there euros now.

If you are planning a transfer and would like a free quote feel free to fill the form in below. If you want to buy euros but unfortunately don’t have all of your sterling available today, we have an option where clients can buy euros today and pay later by using a forward contract. For more information, again feel free to fill out the form below and I will personally give you a call to discuss your currency requirements.

Pound to Euro rate breaches 1.14 as EU vows to work with the UK on Brexit deal

GBP EUR Slumps with Lower GDP Print

The Pound to Euro rate experienced quite a volatile day of trading yesterday with the pair trading over a 1 cent difference throughout the day.

It was the Bank of England’s first interest rate decision of the year yesterday and although the BoE opted not to make any amendments, as was the market expectation, the comments afterwards resulted in a sell-off of GBP exchange rates. What prompted the drop in the Pound’s value were the comments from BoE governor Mark Carney. He stated that the economic outlook for the UK is at its lowest in 10 years, mostly owing to the Brexit uncertainty, and as usual he warned against the adverse effects of a no deal Brexit.

The Pound fell against all major currency pairs shortly after his comments, and then later on in the afternoon the Pound’s fortunes reversed after some forthcoming comments from the EU. They promised to work with UK PM Theresa May on ‘whether a way through can be found’. This is in contrast with Donald Tusk’s comments earlier in the week which have been highlighted by the UK media.

Moving forward I expect Brexit, and Brexit related updates to remain the main driver of Pound to Euro exchange rates.

There are also a number of issues in Europe at the moment that could have a negative impact on the Euro’s value. There is currently a diplomatic row between France and Italy and there have also been signs of an economic slowdown within a number of EU counties, most notably Germany. Italy is also officially in a recession now and there appears to be strain on its relationship with other EU counterparts which could impact the Euro longer term.

There is another expected ‘meaningful vote’ expected to take place during this month although the official date is yet to be announced. If you would like to plan around the vote do feel free to register your interest with us.

Please feel free to register your interest if you wish to be updated in the event of a major Pound to Euro movement. I’ll be happy to get in touch personally and discuss you query.

Pound to Euro forecast: Will recession concerns weaken the Euro or is Brexit still the main exchange rate driver?

Trade wars and Brexit to dictate pound to US dollar exchange rates

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast I discuss yesterday’s news of a slowing European economy, which may start to weight on Euro exchange rates.

Italy has now officially fallen back into recession merely 5 years after the last time this happened back in 2013. During this time we saw real economic concerns for those countries named as the PIIGS of Europe, these were Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.

None of these countries are currently performing particularly well either, so we may well see a similar situation to a number of years back, where debt to GDP figures are much higher, this is similar to an individual having a large debt on a credit card but their monthly wages not being enough to cover paying it off. This will essentially will escalate to a larger problem eventually.

There are also reports that Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, has fallen into a technical recession and this would be seen as even bigger news and may start to weigh heavily on Euro exchange rates.

Brexit still holding back the Pound?

Many of my clients are now confused as to what the best thing to do is, with poor economic figures coming out of Europe you would usually expect the Euro to Pound rate to have weakened fairly significantly, however we do have Brexit hanging over the head of the Pound and this is holding back Sterling exchange rates from really making any progress against any major currency.

Unfortunately for those that are looking to purchase a property overseas and waiting on the best time to push the button on their foreign exchange, until this is sorted out it is unlikely that the Pound will make any huge progress.

I cannot advise clients as to what to do with their money but I can give you my own personal opinion as to what I would do should I be in your position. Personally, I would consider hedging my risk a little and booking out half or at least some of the currency I need, as protection in case the Pound weakens during this current bout of Brexit negotiations.

Although a ‘no deal’ Brexit is still seen as fairly unlikely it has not gone away, and should this happen we may see a heavy drop in the value of the Pound, so protection is key.

Of course on the flip side of that we also have the chance that, should Theresa May negotiate a deal that gets accepted and agreed then we could see a boost in the value of the Pound. So it may be prudent to leave a little bit of your requirement open to avoid potential disappointment if this does happen.

A lot in these situations depend on your own attitude to risk, if you are not the type to walk into a casino or bookmakers and place hundreds if not thousands of pounds on bets then you need to take a step back and ask yourself why you are essentially doing this with currency movements, which are arguably harder to predict and much more volatile in their behaviour.

If you are not a risk taker then remove the risk, guarantee how much your property will cost you now in Pounds (or how much you will receive following a property sale).

Should you be in the position to carry out a currency exchange in the weeks ahead and you would like assistance from someone with over a decade of experience in the industry then you are welcome to contact me (Daniel Wright) personally and I will be happy to work with you to try and maximise your money.

Feel free to fill in the form below, set a rate alert or request a quote on this website and we will be happy to get in touch for a no obligation and free discussion about your current position.

Pound close to 18 month highs against the Euro but Brexit continues to dominate exchange rates

Pound to Dollar: Pound Slides as Brexit Talks Flounder Over Fishing

It has been a very interesting start to the year so far with the Pound making some gains vs the Euro, hitting its highest level last week since May 2017. However, the Pound has not been able to hold on to these gains as the countdown towards when the UK is due to leave the European Union gets closer and closer.

Brexit deadline gets closer and closer

We are just over 7 weeks away from the deadline and at the moment things are far from sorted in terms of the Brexit deal between the UK and the European Union.

Prime Minister Theresa May will be due to visit Brussels once again this week in an attempt to redraft the current plan, with the Irish backstop issue top of her agenda.

Last week, with the Brady amendment MPs voted in favour of a change to the current set up, so Theresa May will face a difficult time this week persuading European leaders to back down from their current deal as they have previously said on a number of occasions that they are not prepared to renegotiate.

A new proposal put forward by Kit Malthouse has suggested that a ‘Plan C’ could involve introducing technology to replace the Irish backstop with a new free trade agreement and technology on the border as well as having an extension to the current timescale.

Bank of England interest rate decision

The next piece of crucial economic data due out for the UK will be Thursday’s Bank of England interest rate decision due to be released on Thursday afternoon.

The UK’s economy has been doing rather well lately with UK employment now at the best level in over 30 years, so clearly there is room for the Bank of England to consider an interest rate hike, but whilst we are in the midst of arguably the final part of Brexit I cannot see the central bank doing anything for the time being.

If you have a currency transfer to make involving Euros and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. I look forward to hearing from you.

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