Pound to Euro rate breaches 1.14 as EU vows to work with the UK on Brexit deal

Will GBPEUR see further volatility with the final vote due next week?

The Pound to Euro rate experienced quite a volatile day of trading yesterday with the pair trading over a 1 cent difference throughout the day.

It was the Bank of England’s first interest rate decision of the year yesterday and although the BoE opted not to make any amendments, as was the market expectation, the comments afterwards resulted in a sell-off of GBP exchange rates. What prompted the drop in the Pound’s value were the comments from BoE governor Mark Carney. He stated that the economic outlook for the UK is at its lowest in 10 years, mostly owing to the Brexit uncertainty, and as usual he warned against the adverse effects of a no deal Brexit.

The Pound fell against all major currency pairs shortly after his comments, and then later on in the afternoon the Pound’s fortunes reversed after some forthcoming comments from the EU. They promised to work with UK PM Theresa May on ‘whether a way through can be found’. This is in contrast with Donald Tusk’s comments earlier in the week which have been highlighted by the UK media.

Moving forward I expect Brexit, and Brexit related updates to remain the main driver of Pound to Euro exchange rates.

There are also a number of issues in Europe at the moment that could have a negative impact on the Euro’s value. There is currently a diplomatic row between France and Italy and there have also been signs of an economic slowdown within a number of EU counties, most notably Germany. Italy is also officially in a recession now and there appears to be strain on its relationship with other EU counterparts which could impact the Euro longer term.

There is another expected ‘meaningful vote’ expected to take place during this month although the official date is yet to be announced. If you would like to plan around the vote do feel free to register your interest with us.

Please feel free to register your interest if you wish to be updated in the event of a major Pound to Euro movement. I’ll be happy to get in touch personally and discuss you query.

Pound to Euro forecast: Will recession concerns weaken the Euro or is Brexit still the main exchange rate driver?

GBP/EUR forecast: On-going Brexit uncertainty likely to prove restrictive for the pound

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast I discuss yesterday’s news of a slowing European economy, which may start to weight on Euro exchange rates.

Italy has now officially fallen back into recession merely 5 years after the last time this happened back in 2013. During this time we saw real economic concerns for those countries named as the PIIGS of Europe, these were Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.

None of these countries are currently performing particularly well either, so we may well see a similar situation to a number of years back, where debt to GDP figures are much higher, this is similar to an individual having a large debt on a credit card but their monthly wages not being enough to cover paying it off. This will essentially will escalate to a larger problem eventually.

There are also reports that Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, has fallen into a technical recession and this would be seen as even bigger news and may start to weigh heavily on Euro exchange rates.

Brexit still holding back the Pound?

Many of my clients are now confused as to what the best thing to do is, with poor economic figures coming out of Europe you would usually expect the Euro to Pound rate to have weakened fairly significantly, however we do have Brexit hanging over the head of the Pound and this is holding back Sterling exchange rates from really making any progress against any major currency.

Unfortunately for those that are looking to purchase a property overseas and waiting on the best time to push the button on their foreign exchange, until this is sorted out it is unlikely that the Pound will make any huge progress.

I cannot advise clients as to what to do with their money but I can give you my own personal opinion as to what I would do should I be in your position. Personally, I would consider hedging my risk a little and booking out half or at least some of the currency I need, as protection in case the Pound weakens during this current bout of Brexit negotiations.

Although a ‘no deal’ Brexit is still seen as fairly unlikely it has not gone away, and should this happen we may see a heavy drop in the value of the Pound, so protection is key.

Of course on the flip side of that we also have the chance that, should Theresa May negotiate a deal that gets accepted and agreed then we could see a boost in the value of the Pound. So it may be prudent to leave a little bit of your requirement open to avoid potential disappointment if this does happen.

A lot in these situations depend on your own attitude to risk, if you are not the type to walk into a casino or bookmakers and place hundreds if not thousands of pounds on bets then you need to take a step back and ask yourself why you are essentially doing this with currency movements, which are arguably harder to predict and much more volatile in their behaviour.

If you are not a risk taker then remove the risk, guarantee how much your property will cost you now in Pounds (or how much you will receive following a property sale).

Should you be in the position to carry out a currency exchange in the weeks ahead and you would like assistance from someone with over a decade of experience in the industry then you are welcome to contact me (Daniel Wright) personally and I will be happy to work with you to try and maximise your money.

Feel free to fill in the form below, set a rate alert or request a quote on this website and we will be happy to get in touch for a no obligation and free discussion about your current position.

Pound close to 18 month highs against the Euro but Brexit continues to dominate exchange rates

Pound to Euro Forecast: Will GBP/EUR rates continue to rise?

It has been a very interesting start to the year so far with the Pound making some gains vs the Euro, hitting its highest level last week since May 2017. However, the Pound has not been able to hold on to these gains as the countdown towards when the UK is due to leave the European Union gets closer and closer.

Brexit deadline gets closer and closer

We are just over 7 weeks away from the deadline and at the moment things are far from sorted in terms of the Brexit deal between the UK and the European Union.

Prime Minister Theresa May will be due to visit Brussels once again this week in an attempt to redraft the current plan, with the Irish backstop issue top of her agenda.

Last week, with the Brady amendment MPs voted in favour of a change to the current set up, so Theresa May will face a difficult time this week persuading European leaders to back down from their current deal as they have previously said on a number of occasions that they are not prepared to renegotiate.

A new proposal put forward by Kit Malthouse has suggested that a ‘Plan C’ could involve introducing technology to replace the Irish backstop with a new free trade agreement and technology on the border as well as having an extension to the current timescale.

Bank of England interest rate decision

The next piece of crucial economic data due out for the UK will be Thursday’s Bank of England interest rate decision due to be released on Thursday afternoon.

The UK’s economy has been doing rather well lately with UK employment now at the best level in over 30 years, so clearly there is room for the Bank of England to consider an interest rate hike, but whilst we are in the midst of arguably the final part of Brexit I cannot see the central bank doing anything for the time being.

If you have a currency transfer to make involving Euros and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound vs Euro forecast: Crucial Brexit amendments due to be voted upon today

Pound to Euro Exchange Rates in Final Stages of Brexit

Pound vs Euro forecast: Since the start of the year the Pound has made some significant gains against the Euro hitting the highest level to buy Euros with Pounds since mid 2017.

This works out to be the difference of £4,000 on a currency transfer of €100,000, highlighting the importance of keeping up to date with what is happening on the foreign exchange markets.

Pound vs Euro forecast: Brexit vote key for the Pound

Brexit news continues to dominate what is happening at the moment and tonight we have potentially a huge event ahead with a number of amendments being proposed and then voted upon.

Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow will be selecting which amendments will be voted upon and then the votes are likely to take place this evening.

The Brexit proposals

The crucial amendments include Yvette Cooper’s proposal that the Government will not be allowed to leave with no deal and that Brexit may be extended by up to 9 months which means the end of this year.

The second proposal is the motion by Graham Brady who wants to seek ‘alternative arrangements’ to the Irish backstop and this could provide support to Theresa May’s Brexit plan.

In the meantime the European Union remains of the opinion that they will not back down on the current plans being offered. In a way it could be argued that these proposals are futile if the EU will not change their minds and re-open negotiations.

With these discussions likely to set the tone for Pound vs Euro exchange rates in the short term, I think this could possibly even help the Pound, especially if Cooper’s amendment is included, as it means that although the future remains uncertain, the finite period of the end of March is extended. This is why I think we could see the Pound challenge fresh highs against the Euro overnight.

If you would like further information about what is happening in the foreign exchange markets and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly using the form below for a free quote when buying or selling Euros and I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP/EUR rates: Expect Investors Risk Appetite for the Pound to be Driven by Tomorrow’s Commons Brexit Vote

GBP/EUR Rates: Third meaningful vote is delayed for now, but will May gain enough support to try again?

Anyone with a short-term GBP/EUR currency requirement should be keeping a close eye on market developments this week.

I’m expecting increased volatility, especially during the early part of the trading week, as the markets gear up for a set of key Parliamentary votes on Brexit. Tomorrow night MPs will vote for a second time on Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the EU.

The PM is hoping that she will be able to convince the EU to make concessions on the Irish border backstop, which is proving to be MPs’ primary concern with the current deal. As many as 15 amendments are due to be put forward by MPs, with a second referendum and an extension to Article 50 the most notable.

The Pound’s recent rise was attributed for the most part due to the chances of a no deal scenario fading. However, whilst nothing is signed or confirmed, we must consider that any failure to get an extension to Article 50, could increase the chances of this dramatically.

GBP/EUR rates – what’s next?

GBP made impressive gains against its EUR counterpart throughout last week’s trading, with it becoming clear that investors risk appetite for the Pound was being driven by the chances of deal or no deal scenario with the EU. It must also be noted that Sterling’s rise was also facilitated by a growing lack of confidence in the Eurozone economy, with its three linchpins, Germany, France and Italy all facing economic slowdowns and political unrest.

Where GBP/EUR rates go from here will much depend on how the markets view the results of this week’s key House of Commons vote. A cross-party section of MPs are trying to push for an extension to Article 50 of up to 6 months, which it must be noted is not what the PM is looking for. Theresa May is still hoping to push through her deal, with a few amendments by the March 29th deadline.

With time fast running out, expect the markets to be driven by media perception and Parliamentary developments regarding the key aspects of any prospective Brexit deal.

For more news on GBP/EUR rates please feel free to use the form below to ask me a question. I’ll be happy to respond personally and answer your query.

Sterling hits highest level against the Euro since May 2017 – Great time to buy Euros

MPs vote on alternative Brexit paths

Pound Sterling forecast: The Pound last night breached the highest level seen against the Euro since back in May 2017. Giving those looking to buy Euros a fantastic opportunity.

Whether your business has to purchase Euros, you are buying a property abroad or simply need some travel money for a skiing trip then this latest movement has made it a little bit cheaper for you.

There isn’t one substantial reason behind this movement but a build-up of a number of factors that have led to the spike in the market.

Why is the Pound to Euro rate high?

Firstly, we have seen the chances of a ‘no deal’ Brexit decreasing. It seems that most of Parliament are not happy for the UK to end up going down this path, and it had originally been the ‘no deal’ scenario that had weakened the Pound and led to it remaining low for a number of months now.

Yesterday we also saw weakness for the Euro against most major currencies. The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi yesterday held his regular press conference after the ECB interest rate decision.

As expected, there were no changes to interest rates, and indications were that this would be the same now until the end of the year. On top of this, Draghi was also fairly negative in his overview on how the Eurozone economy is performing. It does appear that the Eurozone economy may be facing a bit of a downturn and this would not be good news for Euro exchange rates as a whole, with the markets moving in advance based on speculation this is why the Euro weakened across the board yesterday.

Brexit ‘Plan B’ vote in Parliament next week

Next week on Tuesday 29th we have the next vote in Parliament. This time to see whether or not Theresa May’s ‘Plan B’ has enough support to get the UK a deal with the EU and for things to move along.

It is still unlikely that this will be voted through and what will be interesting is what happens after this, there are many routes that this could take and either way I would expect Sterling to remain volatile over the course of next week.

If you have an exchange to carry out involving buying or selling Euros or Pounds then in this current climate it is imperative you deal with an efficient and proactive currency broker, along with one that will get you the most for your money. I would like to think that we tick all of those boxes. If you would like to contact me personally for a chat about your own personal situation then you are welcome to fill in the form below and I will be happy to get in touch.

Pound to Euro rate tests 1.15

GBP to CAD forecast: All eyes on tomorrow's key vote on the Brexit deal

1.15 has been a key resistance point for over 18 months and Pound to Euro rate is currently testing 1.15 again. Having had a chat with fellow traders this morning it seems I may be alone with my current view. Many of the guys here believe 1.15 will be breached and Sterling will continue to climb, I am not so convinced.

Is there justification for the Pound’s rise in value?

Ask yourself what is the justification behind Sterling’s strength? It is difficult, the current reasoning is due to a potential extension to Article 50 and the apparent drop in probability of a no deal Brexit. Does this really justify the Pound making significant gains against the majority of major currencies?

Morgan Stanley believes there is now less than a 5% chance of a no deal Brexit, but if we look at the current situation is that really the case? By rumours spreading that a no deal is now less likely it puts Theresa May in a terrible position to negotiate. A no deal Brexit scenario is practically the only ammunition she has. Brussels knows this.

Theresa May tried to push through her Brexit deal in December and it was delayed due to a lack of confidence in the deal going through Parliament. Her intention was to go back to Brussels to renegotiate better terms. European Commission President, Jean Claude Junker has stated there will be no changes to the current deal and Mrs May was stonewalled.

If May is now in a weaker position why would Junker now make concessions? It does seem that the majority of parliament are ‘remainers’ so the odds are stacked against May anyway.

The extension seems pointless unless Junker changes his tune or we are preparing for a no deal.

It is a farce. I would be surprised to see the Pound to Euro rate breach 1.16. If I was buying Euros I would be looking to take advantage of current levels. I would be wary of being overly optimistic, every time GBP/EUR has moved into the 1.15s in the last 18 months it has quickly retracted.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted directly by using the form below:

GBP/USD exchange rate breaches 1.30

Pound to dollar Forecast - Brexit delay pushes sterling down

No Deal Brexit now less likely

The GBP/USD exchange rate has today breached 1.30, a key resistance point for the pair. The two month high has been caused by investor confidence slipping in the US Dollar due to the government shutdown and also a drop in the probability of a no deal Brexit scenario.

Donald Trump has now had the partial government shutdown in place for a considerable time, in fact it is the longest partial government shutdown in history. He is playing hard ball in an attempt to gain funding for the border wall.

The shutdown has put 800,000 government employees temporarily out of work and this will no doubt soon have an impact on economic data which has halted the considerable gains made by the greenback in 2018. With the GBP/USD exchange rate currently sitting just above 1.30 it will be interesting to see if Sterling’s advance continues, I am personally not convinced.

Another catalyst for Sterling was that the chances of a no deal Brexit now seem to be less likely. Morgan Stanley believe there is now a less than 5% chance of a no deal Brexit.

This is not good news for Theresa May, as a no deal scenario is the only ammunition in Brexit negotiations with Brussels.

Brexit will continue to be a key factor for Sterling value and any firm news in talks will result in volatility. One of the most important questions is whether Brussels are willing to make any concessions. European Commission President, Jean Claude-Junker has stated on several occasions there will be no changes to the current deal.

Mrs May originally delayed the vote on her Brexit deal in December due to a lack of confidence in it being passed. Her plan was to go back to Brussels to renegotiate and was stonewalled. With a no deal scenario now seemingly less likely I am doubtful he will change his tune.

May has ruled out a second referendum although it may well be the most sensible option, which leaves Brexit in limbo. Despite many feeling that a second referendum would be undemocratic I believe the exact opposite, that it would be undemocratic not to have one. Many of the promises made are not going to be fulfilled and the deal on the table is well below par, in short Brexit was mis-sold.

If you have a USD requirement short term I would be looking to take advantage of current levels due to the fragility of the pound.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. You can contact me directly using the form below:

GBP/EUR forecast: Pound improves against the Euro after strong UK employment data

GBP/EUR rate hits new 22 month high of 1.1766

The Pound has broken past 1.14 against the Euro during this morning’s trading session after some very positive unemployment data that was published yesterday morning.

UK Employment figures showed their best levels since records have begun and this helped the Pound hit a 2 month high against the single currency, which is very good news for anyone looking to send Euros to the continent.

Combined with the positive employment data the UK showed that borrowing figures had gone up for the month of December but as UK debt stands just shy of £1.79trn or 86% of Gross Domestic Product this was not too much to worry about.

UK Mortgage Approvals data due this week

The next UK economic data of note for anyone with an interest in Sterling exchange rates will be the release of housing data in the form of UK Mortgage Approvals due to be published on Friday morning.

The housing market has been coming under pressure recently with many buyers adopting a wait and see approach with Brexit looming and this could be revealed with the data coming out lower than expected on Friday morning so make sure you pay close attention to this particular release.

Meanwhile, the value of the Pound continues to be driven by Brexit which has moved in an upwards direction so far this week after the release of Theresa May’s Plan B option for the deal.

Theresa May is currently in Europe aiming to try and get some amendments to the current plan, including trying to come up with a better solution to the Irish border issue which currently does not appear to work for both parties.

The plan was voted down last week by a majority of 230 votes and although this was the lowest vote in history for a UK government the reason why the Pound actually gained across the board is that it appears as though Article 50 may be extended and the UK could be headed for a softer Brexit.

If you would like to save money when buying or selling Euros and would like a free quote compared to using your own bank or another currency broker then please contact me directly using the form below. You can also call me directly on 01494 787478. I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP/EUR rates: Pound makes further gains against the Euro

Pound remains steady despite poor UK economic data - Growth figures for key Eurozone economies out later this week

GBP/EUR rates have crept up again during early morning trading, with the Pound trading close to its high of 1.1368.

The Pound has seen its value increase against the single currency over recent days, despite UK Prime Minister Theresa May losing her key Brexit vote last week in the House of Commons and only just surviving a vote of no confidence in her leadership.

The Pound is managing to withstand any further losses despite the continuing lack of clarity on Brexit. Euro sellers may be considering the possibility that the single currency has maxed out its potential value against the Pound, under the current market conditions.

If the Euro failed to make any further inroads last week, is unlikely to see its value significantly increase against the Pound unless the UK is left in the unenviable position of exiting the single bloc without a deal in place.

Despite this remaining a potential outcome I do not feel it is the most likely scenario. Despite reports to the contrary regarding political jostling and scaremongering amongst senior politicians, neither the UK nor the EU want to leave on irreversibly bad terms. It will not be economically beneficial for either side and as such, I expect a deal to be struck ahead of the March 29th deadline.

How this deal will be achieved, or the parameters of it are yet to be fully divulged but any deal is likely to help cement Sterling’s position and could help boost its value, which remains marooned around the current levels for the most part, due to the on-going uncertainty surrounding the whole saga.

I would be very tempted to lock in any EUR sell positions ahead of the coming weeks, thus removing the potential risk of a downturn form the current highs. Longer-term I feel the Euro is likely to see its value start to decrease, as an economic slowdown and political uncertainty in many key Eurozone regions, could hamper any advancement for Euro exchange rates.

For further news on GBP/EUR exchange rates please feel free to use the form below to ask me a question. I’ll be happy to respond personally and answer your query.

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