Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Pound falls against the Euro after Bank of England rate hike

Negative Retails Sales Figures put further pressure on GBPEUR

The Pound came under renewed pressure against the Euro towards the end of the week even after the Bank of England chose to increase interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% on Thursday.

The Pound briefly touched toward 1.13 in the thirty minutes following the announcement but then the press conference confirmed what a lot of people have been thinking in that it will be some time before we see another interest rate hike.

Part of the reason for Thursday’s decision was to allow the Bank of England room to cut rates next year if things continue to falter concerning the Brexit talks.

On a currency transfer of £200,000 the difference was as much as €1,8000 from the high to the low which highlights the importance of being well prepared for movements on the currency markets.

The rate decision saw the first hike since last November and the base rate is now back to where it was in 2009. However, Bank of England governor Mark Carney reinforced the doubters by saying that the risk of a no Brexit deal was ‘uncomfortably high.’

As we go into next week there are a number of data releases due out which could affect Sterling vs Euro exchange rates.

Next week on Friday the UK will release the latest UK GDP data and this is expected to see a growth from 0.2% to 0.4%. The first quarter was relatively low but that was blamed by the ‘Beast of the East’ weather so it should come as no surprise that the data will see an improvement.

Therefore, in terms of much movement I think next week will be rather limited so if you’re comfortable with where rates are at the moment and want to save money compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for further information and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian

It would be dangerous to rule out GBPEUR exchange rates slipping below 1.10

GBPEUR exchange rates slip below 1.10 - GBP/EUR Forecast

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has come under fresh pressure this week owing to the uncertainty of the UK Government and political woes. Whilst the UK leaning towards a softer Brexit is good news, the weakness in Mrs May’s government is holding back the pound.

The Euro has also been rising against many currencies this week following an upbeat assessment from Mario Draghi, President of the ECB (European Central Bank). In a statement earlier this week Mario highlighted how he felt the extensive stimulus used was having an effect and that the Eurozone was now on the right trajectory.

This shift in tone from the ECB who at their last meeting caused Euro weakness by backtracking on their more previous positive outlook, could see GBPEUR dropping down to the 1.12’s or maybe 1.11’s. To see a move even lower will take some fresh political uncertainty which cannot be ruled out.

We were told the Leave vote would not win and we were told David Cameron would not resign. We were then told there would be no snap election so can we really assume that Theresa May will be able to carry on?

Her resignation or a vote of no confidence is now looking increasingly likely and would surely see GBPEUR levels slipping below 1.10, testing the 1.07 market her hit last year in August. Expectations for the pound to keep rising if these matters do resolve themselves are limited since the infighting in the Tory party does not seem like it will move quickly away.

We now have a very busy period with Donald Trump meeting Mrs May and the Queen plus the latest news on Brexit neogtiations. We are expecting a White Paper on Brexit very soon which will further outline the detail on the Government’s position, this could shed some further light on GBPEUR and might help stem the losses.

The biggest risk in the currency market is to do nothing so if you wish to run through and discuss any strategy relating to a GBPEUR exchange and what happens next, please contact me directly. You can email me at

Bank of England the focus for sterling this week!

BOE Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of England will take the focus this week with their meeting on Thursday which could see some volatility for the pound. Expectations are centered around a weaker sterling if the Bank of England fail to hint at any future rate hikes and I personally would not be surprised to see sterling lower. Any change in the value of sterling could be short-lived so if you have a transaction to consider and wish to capitalise on any sudden improvements, please email me on to highlight your position.

A key reason for the Bank of England not raising interest rates back in May was the lack of growth in the UK economy. Blamed largely on the ‘beast of the east’ weather conditions, economic growth in Q1 was poor. What could prove very interesting for the Bank of England to consider will be the recent GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data which showed a fall in GDP over the course of Q2.

The general impression had been the Bank of England will link raising interest rates to growth having used this as a reason not to raise in May. With GDP so important to the Bank of England’s calculations, the likelihood for me will be a weaker pound as the market scrambles to review the prospect of any interest rate hike in 2018, which for me now, looks much less likely.

Clients buying or selling the pound are now faced with a key piece of news which could move exchange rates, preparation is key to maximising any deal as it gives you the opportunity to lock in any sudden improvement. If you have a position that you will need to consider in the future, please feel free to contact me Jonathan to run through the market, your options and what strategies might suit you best.

Please use and ideally, please include a number. Any information provided is completely free of charge and at no obligation.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to discussing the market and your situation soon!

Big movement ahead for the US Dollar

Central banks to influence GBPUSD exchange rates short term

We could be in for a very busy next 24 hours for GBPUSD exchange rates as the House of Commons begin their second day of debating the EU Withdrawal Bill as well as the latest interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve later on this evening.

The debate in the House of Commons has already caused one minister to hand in their resignation and so far we have seen a 26 majority to reject an amendment made by the House of Lords at their previous meeting.

The result was seen as a positive but there is still a long day ahead and the uncertainty is causing the Pound to struggle particularly vs the US Dollar.

It is almost a certainty that the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates tonight which will be the second time this year and the seventh time since December 2015.

We have seen GBPUSD rates hit 1.33 during the course of the week and a further rate hike, although fully expected, could see GBPUSD rates fall below these levels so make sure you’re well prepared to take advantage of these rates if you’re looking to sell US Dollars to buy Pounds or even Euros.

Ultimately though I think the EU Withdrawal Bill will be the biggest market mover so depending on the outcome this is likely to result in a lot of movement overnight for US Dollar exchange rates.

Tomorrow morning once the dust has settled we could see further problems ahead for the UK with the latest UK Retail Sales data.

We have already seen a number of high street stores close recently and with jobs cuts ahead I think this sector could show real problems resulting in Sterling weakness.

If you have a currency transfer to make involving US Dollars or any other major currency pair then feel free to contact me and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 15 years I am confident that I can save you money when exchanging currency compared to using your bank.

Email me directly with a brief description of your requirement.

Tom Holian

Brexit related politics likely to be the biggest driver of GBP exchange rates next week

Sterling dropped in value yesterday after the latest Brexit related announcement was made.

There are conflicting opinions within the Conservative government as to whether or not there should be a open ended period of time that the UK remains a part of the Customs Union, should a deal not be in place by March of next year as planned.

The topic is heated to the extent that the current Brexit Secretary, David Davis had been rumoured to plan to step down if he didn’t get his way on this. He wanted there to be a time limit on how long the UK would remain part of the Customs Union if there is no plan in place, so based on yesterday’s market movement his plans aren’t favoured by the markets.

Next week there will be discussions amongst British lawmakers regarding the Brexit Bill and the amendments to it proposed by the house of lords recently. I expect this topic to have the potential to move markets depending on what’s confirmed. At the moment Brexit related news appears to be the biggest mover of the Pounds value, especially now that the interest rate hike from the BoE is likely to be pushed back towards the end of the year.

If you would like to be notified in the event of a major market movement, do feel free to register your interest with us.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Brexit talks put pressure on the pound

Will today's UK data provide another boost for the Pound?

Today Theresa May held crunch Brexit talks with Conservative MPs as Brexit Secretary David Davis led a revolt due to the terms of the ‘backstop’ plan. The Brexit secretary yesterday evening made threats that he would resign if the PM did not add a deadline to the ‘backstop’ proposal. With the relationship between the two appearing to be deteriorating by the day, sterling exchange rates struggled against the US Dollar throughout the mornings trading session until reports were released suggesting a final leave date has now been added to the proposal.

The ‘backstop’ proposal is a fallback agreement which will state that the UK will remain part of the customs union for an extended period of time if the UK and EU cannot come to an agreement by March next year.  No surprises Brexiteers are not happy with the arrangement as the UK will remain closely linked to the EU and this could have an influence on future trade deals that the UK try to put in place.

The EU summit at the end of the month had the potential to have a major impact on sterling exchange rates and with the recent commentary coming from the Conservative party I believe this has amplified the situation. Unfortunately I don’t believe its good news for clients buying a foreign currency, as its only a matter of time until the PM confirms that the UK and EU cannot come to an agreement in regards to the Irish Border.

Quite simply if I were buying a foreign currency I wouldn’t taken any risks and would look to make arrangements sooner rather than later.

When buying or selling the Pound its important to analyse both currencies that you will be trading. If you would like to save as much money as possible feel free to email me with the currency pair you are looking to trade and the time-scales you are working too and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company

As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will help you to make informed and educated decisions.

Minimal data out today for the U.K – European growth and U.S employment figures the large releases of the day – Political issues in the U.K also key this week

We have minimal economic data out for the U.K today, the Pound has remained fairly flat in early morning trading.

As the day progresses we do have other economic data releases from around the world that may impact the Pound against the Dollar, Euro and Canadian Dollar along with other major currencies.

At 10:00am today we have the release of European growth figures, expectations are for the quarter on quarter figures for the first quarter of 2018 to remain at 0.4% with year on year growth unchanged at 2.5% as well. Any change to these expectations may lead to a volatile morning for the Euro, is has been mentioned in recent times that growth around the Eurozone has slowed a little so should this be shown in the figures today the Euro may weaken.

Later in the day we have jobless claims figures out from the States which of course will be important for both the Dollar and all major currencies as it will impact global attitude to risk. Non-farm payroll data, which is the number of people in non-agricultural employment came out better than expected last week so we may see further positive news for the Dollar should these figures follow suit which may push GBP/USD rates back down again in trading today.

On top of all of this we still have a huge amount of problems hanging over the head of the Government, mostly regarding Brexit and their plans going forward regarding this. There are reports that David Davis,  Secretary of state for exiting the European Union is not happy with the current plans set out by Prime Minister Theresa May and may even stand down from his position, should this happen then I would expect that uncertainty for the U.K would increase and the Pound could easily lose value fairly rapidly.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out involving either buying or selling the Pound and you would like my assistance with it then you are more than welcome to contact me personally. I would be highly confident that not only would I get you a better rate than your current provider but also a first class level of customer service too. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on with a description of your needs and I will be happy to contact you personally for a free no obligation discussion about them.

Italian political issues appear to be the main driver for currencies so far this week

The week so far has seen quite a lot of volatility for Sterling exchange rates, however the reasons for the Pound moving against most major currencies are not down to political or economic data from the U.K but actually mainly driven by Italian politics, Donald Trump and North Korea.

Italian politics has been one of the main focuses for the week for investors and speculators, as news broke earlier in the week that the two big winners from the election – Five Star and The League had failed to form a Government, this instantly led to a drop in the value of the Euro and also for all of the perceived ‘riskier’ currencies, for example the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar.

As the week has progressed it does appear that the heightened uncertainty has lifted and only just this afternoon the two groups had agreed to give the matter more time and that they would once again continue talks and try to come to a positive conclusion so that they can move forward together.

Due to this we saw GBP/EUR exchange rates drop back  down into the 1.13s and the Pound also lost ground against the riskier currencies once again too.

The main key piece of data left for the U.K this week is manufacturing data due out on Friday morning at 09:30am, we do however have European unemployment and inflation figures out tomorrow morning, and also Non-Farm payroll data from the U.S on Friday lunchtime at 13:30pm.

Non-farm payroll data can impact all major currencies as it has an effect on global attitude to risk, so be sure to keep a keen eye on the market on Friday afternoon to see what impact this has had.

If you do not have time to watch the markets closely and the broker or bank you currently use does not do this for you then it may be time to change. If you would like my assistance with your exchange, both in terms of getting the best exchange rate and also helping you take advantage of the timing of the transfer when spikes occur then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly. You can email me on and I will be more than happy to contact you personally for a no obligation discussion about your whole situation.


GBP Forecast – Sterling Finds Some Support as Italian Political Crisis Deepens (Matthew Vasssallo)

Sterling has found some welcomed support against the EUR over recent days, as concerns over the Italian political crisis intensified over the weekend.

GBP/EUR rates hit a high of 1.1467 this morning following a complete breakdown in negotiations over the weekend, between the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the far-right League. The two leading parties have failed to form a working government, with the on-going political turbulence weighing heavily on investors, who have since shied away from the single currency.

This in turn has inadvertently boosted Sterling’s value, somewhat artificially some may say, despite the current issues facing the UK economy and the current malaise in Brexit negotiations.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to pull her Conservative party in the same direction, with key members of her backroom team, openly questioning her Brexit strategy.

Investors’ long-term confidence in the UK economy and ultimately the Pound is being tested and as a result the Pound is struggling to gain any sustainable value. This is due for the most part, to the on-going uncertainty around Brexit, which continues to cast a dark shadow over the UK economy.

In my opinion until negotiations have been resolved, one way or another, it is unlikely that investor confidence will grow significantly, which is likely to handicap the Pound over the coming months.

Looking at the current data and Friday’s Gross Domestic Product figures confirmed that the UK economy had grown at its slowest pace in the past five years. This follows a run of inconsistent data, with inflation falling again this month, another indication that we are unlikely to see the Bank of England (BoE) raise interest rates anytime soon.

Due to this on-going uncertainty, I would be very tempted to protect any Sterling currency positions from further losses and remove any market risk where possible.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Will the Pound to Australian Dollar rate now remain below 1.80, and which factors are likely to influence it?

After opening above the 1.80 mark yesterday, the pair have since fallen below this benchmark and they’re currently trading in the 1.79’s.

There doesn’t appear to be as much resistance/support around this level in the current market, after 1.80 has acted as a resistance for some time. The fall for the Pound today appears to be down to the latest Brexit update, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this topic continue to influence exchange rates for the remainder of the year and potentially even further into the future.

Today’s update is in relation to the UK government confirming that the UK will not be part of the Customs Union after Brexit. There have been hopes that the UK would remain part of a EU Customs Union post Brexit, and it’s understandable why as once goods pass into the union there is no longer a need to apply taxes as the goods pass through the area and across borders.

The Pound’s slight drop today will be down to fears surrounding this matter and how it will impact the UK economy over the next few years. The next time this matter could move the markets quite dramatically is within the next couple of weeks when a White Paper will be published highlighting the progress the UK’s negotiators have made so far.

Apart from Brexit I think how the central banks of both the UK and Australia act this year will also influence rates. There are no hikes expected down under but there is from the Bank of England later in the year, perhaps offering the GBP to AUD rate an upward bias around that time.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Recent Posts