Further pressure mounts on Theresa May pushing cable lower

Further pressure mounts on Theresa May pushing cable lower

UK Prime Minister Theresa May is facing a potential revolt as further concessions have been made to the EU. Mrs May has offered to extend the transition period which has enraged both remain and leave Tory MPs.

Over the past weekend former Brexit Secretary David Davis made his thoughts clear when he stated we should abandon the Chequers plan; he was back in the press yesterday urging the PM to change the course of the negotiations.

Rumours from within Parliament say that letters of no confidence have been submitted, and some Conservative MPs feel that the PM will not be able to conclude an acceptable deal. If the PM is forced out or decides to resign, which in my opinion is extremely unlikely, David Davis is rumoured to be in line to step in as caretaker PM.

Uncertainty puts pressure on a currency and at the moment it’s clear to see the pound is under pressure. In the next 8 weeks we should know if the PM has secured a deal or if a change of leadership is on the horizon. For clients buying sterling with dollars I expect further opportunities will present themselves in the near future, however rates in the high 1.20s or low 1.30s could be coming to an end.

The US economy has been performing extremely well over the last couple of years. Unemployment is at a 50 year low and interest rates continue to rise. However many economists believe that the ongoing trade wars and protectionism approach by the President could force the US into a recession in years to come.

My personal opinion is that Theresa May will eventually secure a deal and that the trade wars will continue to escalate forcing the FED to halt raising interest rates. Therefore I expect over the next 6 months for the pound to rally against the US dollar. For more information on the factors that are likely to impact USD exchange rates feel free to get in touch using the form below, I’ll be happy to get in touch personally.

GBPEUR Forecast: Will a Brexit deal be agreed this week?

GBPEUR forecast - Will Brexit deal be agreed this week?

The EU summit is due to start today and many people have been adopting a wait and see approach as to what will happen to GBPEUR exchange rates. In the last couple of days a number of senior officials have been suggesting that a deal is unlikely and that an extension may be granted in order to allow the talks to conclude without facing a huge amount of pressure.

Brexit talks are currently in a stalemate with the Irish border issue and it appears unlikely that this will be sorted over the next couple of days.

At the moment the current plan is that there will be an EU border between Ireland and Northern Ireland but both the UK and the EU want to avoid having physical border checks. As yet both sides cannot agree on which way this will be solved.

If this week’s EU summit ends with little or no progress, an emergency Brexit summit is being planned for November. I think if a deal can be done, this could be the time.

Indeed, this week’s summit was the original deadline for the deal to be finalised, but with the Irish border issue still not sorted out I would be very surprised to see much resolution this week.

However, we have been surprised before by what has happened during previous meetings, so make sure you’re well prepared for all eventualities as we could see some very big movements for GBPEUR exchange rates in the days ahead.

Many of my clients who are in the process of buying a property in Europe have opted for a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date and allows you to budget very early on.

If you’d like to discuss the EU summit taking place this week and how it could impact your exchange rate, or have another question you’d like to ask please feel free to use the form below. I’ll be happy to get in touch personally and discuss your enquiry.

Busy week ahead for GBPUSD exchanges!

GBPUSD rate affected by Brexit sentiment

This was always billed as a key period for sterling exchange rates and so it has proved. The GBPUSD rate has been very volatile with almost 6 cents movement since the end of August between the high and the low on the pairing. There are numerous events taking place at present which are giving the market the fuel it needs for the volatility, including Brexit and the ongoing trade wars.

A key driver is of course the EU Summit and the market’s reactions to the flow of news relating to what type of Brexit the UK is headed for. Personally, I do feel the likelihood is that ultimately a deal will be reached but that it might take a lot longer to reach agreement.

Some are mooting November or even December as a more likely time when we will see some important news released. The deadlock mainly centres around Ireland and just how the border between the North and the South will be managed.

The EU Summit is this week, on the 18th and promises to hold all sorts of information in store for clients tracking GBPUSD rates. For me, there does now appear an increasing likelihood that sterling will dip and lose value, as the market loses patience.

The GBPUSD exchange rate could well retrace the steps that took it back down to the 1.26’s back in September when a no-deal scenario looked likely.

Other news this week to move the market includes the latest UK Unemployment data this morning and then Inflation data tomorrow, two data sets which are used by investors to gauge the health of the UK economy.

All in all, sterling seems most likely to be driven by sentiments over Brexit. The good news for US dollar buyers is the US dollar is slightly weaker lately as concerns mount over the strength and direction of the US economy.

If you are planning on buying or selling US dollars for sterling, please feel free to contact our expert team for a run-down of the latest news and events to move your rate. You can send me a message directly using the form below:

Pound hits lowest rate to buy Euros in 2018 caused by the potential of a no deal Brexit

Negative Retails Sales Figures put further pressure on GBPEUR

The Pound vs the Euro is now trading at its lowest level to buy Euros all year. The latest topic surrounding Brexit has not gone well and it appears at the moment that we’re facing a no deal Brexit which has sent the Pound into a bit of free fall against the Euro.

Since the talks began they have typically resulted in a lot of negativity for Sterling exchange rates against a whole host of major currencies and in particular vs the single currency. This is great news if you have just sold a property in Europe or planning to in the near future.

Indeed, a lot of my clients have been opting for a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date taking advantage of these current excellent opportunities to buy Pounds with Euros.

One positive ray of light is that the EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and UK Brexit secretary Dominic Raab have agreed to keep the talks going non-stop in order to avoid a non-deal Brexit. However, at the same time this highlights the plight of Sterling against the Euro as we are slowly running out of time.

The trade relationship between the EU and the UK is still yet to be decided as well the issue in Ireland which has been a sticking point for a very long time.

The talks were originally planned to be finished by the end of October but it appears as though the deadline will be extended in the hope of being able to reach an agreement by the end of March 2019.

Another reason to be cautious if you’re planning to send money overseas is that the UK has also published 24 out of 80 papers of how to deal with a no-Brexit deal and with more papers planned to released in the near future I think this could set the tone for a very bleak future for Sterling and therefore if you’re planning to buy Euros it may be worth getting this organised in the very near future.

I have personally worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and I’m confident that with my experience I’m able to help you both with the timing of your currency transfer as well as saving you money compared to using your own bank.

For further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound falls against the Euro after Bank of England rate hike

Negative Retails Sales Figures put further pressure on GBPEUR

The Pound came under renewed pressure against the Euro towards the end of the week even after the Bank of England chose to increase interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% on Thursday.

The Pound briefly touched toward 1.13 in the thirty minutes following the announcement but then the press conference confirmed what a lot of people have been thinking in that it will be some time before we see another interest rate hike.

Part of the reason for Thursday’s decision was to allow the Bank of England room to cut rates next year if things continue to falter concerning the Brexit talks.

On a currency transfer of £200,000 the difference was as much as €1,8000 from the high to the low which highlights the importance of being well prepared for movements on the currency markets.

The rate decision saw the first hike since last November and the base rate is now back to where it was in 2009. However, Bank of England governor Mark Carney reinforced the doubters by saying that the risk of a no Brexit deal was ‘uncomfortably high.’

As we go into next week there are a number of data releases due out which could affect Sterling vs Euro exchange rates.

Next week on Friday the UK will release the latest UK GDP data and this is expected to see a growth from 0.2% to 0.4%. The first quarter was relatively low but that was blamed by the ‘Beast of the East’ weather so it should come as no surprise that the data will see an improvement.

Therefore, in terms of much movement I think next week will be rather limited so if you’re comfortable with where rates are at the moment and want to save money compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for further information and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

It would be dangerous to rule out GBPEUR exchange rates slipping below 1.10

GBP/EUR remains range-bound after its end to last week

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has come under fresh pressure this week owing to the uncertainty of the UK Government and political woes. Whilst the UK leaning towards a softer Brexit is good news, the weakness in Mrs May’s government is holding back the pound.

The Euro has also been rising against many currencies this week following an upbeat assessment from Mario Draghi, President of the ECB (European Central Bank). In a statement earlier this week Mario highlighted how he felt the extensive stimulus used was having an effect and that the Eurozone was now on the right trajectory.

This shift in tone from the ECB who at their last meeting caused Euro weakness by backtracking on their more previous positive outlook, could see GBPEUR dropping down to the 1.12’s or maybe 1.11’s. To see a move even lower will take some fresh political uncertainty which cannot be ruled out.

We were told the Leave vote would not win and we were told David Cameron would not resign. We were then told there would be no snap election so can we really assume that Theresa May will be able to carry on?

Her resignation or a vote of no confidence is now looking increasingly likely and would surely see GBPEUR levels slipping below 1.10, testing the 1.07 market her hit last year in August. Expectations for the pound to keep rising if these matters do resolve themselves are limited since the infighting in the Tory party does not seem like it will move quickly away.

We now have a very busy period with Donald Trump meeting Mrs May and the Queen plus the latest news on Brexit neogtiations. We are expecting a White Paper on Brexit very soon which will further outline the detail on the Government’s position, this could shed some further light on GBPEUR and might help stem the losses.

The biggest risk in the currency market is to do nothing so if you wish to run through and discuss any strategy relating to a GBPEUR exchange and what happens next, please contact me directly. You can email me at jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Bank of England the focus for sterling this week!

BOE Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of England will take the focus this week with their meeting on Thursday which could see some volatility for the pound. Expectations are centered around a weaker sterling if the Bank of England fail to hint at any future rate hikes and I personally would not be surprised to see sterling lower. Any change in the value of sterling could be short-lived so if you have a transaction to consider and wish to capitalise on any sudden improvements, please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk to highlight your position.

A key reason for the Bank of England not raising interest rates back in May was the lack of growth in the UK economy. Blamed largely on the ‘beast of the east’ weather conditions, economic growth in Q1 was poor. What could prove very interesting for the Bank of England to consider will be the recent GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data which showed a fall in GDP over the course of Q2.

The general impression had been the Bank of England will link raising interest rates to growth having used this as a reason not to raise in May. With GDP so important to the Bank of England’s calculations, the likelihood for me will be a weaker pound as the market scrambles to review the prospect of any interest rate hike in 2018, which for me now, looks much less likely.

Clients buying or selling the pound are now faced with a key piece of news which could move exchange rates, preparation is key to maximising any deal as it gives you the opportunity to lock in any sudden improvement. If you have a position that you will need to consider in the future, please feel free to contact me Jonathan to run through the market, your options and what strategies might suit you best.

Please use jmw@currencies.co.uk and ideally, please include a number. Any information provided is completely free of charge and at no obligation.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to discussing the market and your situation soon!

Big movement ahead for the US Dollar

GBPUSD rates back below 1.30

We could be in for a very busy next 24 hours for GBPUSD exchange rates as the House of Commons begin their second day of debating the EU Withdrawal Bill as well as the latest interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve later on this evening.

The debate in the House of Commons has already caused one minister to hand in their resignation and so far we have seen a 26 majority to reject an amendment made by the House of Lords at their previous meeting.

The result was seen as a positive but there is still a long day ahead and the uncertainty is causing the Pound to struggle particularly vs the US Dollar.

It is almost a certainty that the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates tonight which will be the second time this year and the seventh time since December 2015.

We have seen GBPUSD rates hit 1.33 during the course of the week and a further rate hike, although fully expected, could see GBPUSD rates fall below these levels so make sure you’re well prepared to take advantage of these rates if you’re looking to sell US Dollars to buy Pounds or even Euros.

Ultimately though I think the EU Withdrawal Bill will be the biggest market mover so depending on the outcome this is likely to result in a lot of movement overnight for US Dollar exchange rates.

Tomorrow morning once the dust has settled we could see further problems ahead for the UK with the latest UK Retail Sales data.

We have already seen a number of high street stores close recently and with jobs cuts ahead I think this sector could show real problems resulting in Sterling weakness.

If you have a currency transfer to make involving US Dollars or any other major currency pair then feel free to contact me and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 15 years I am confident that I can save you money when exchanging currency compared to using your bank.

Email me directly with a brief description of your requirement.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Brexit related politics likely to be the biggest driver of GBP exchange rates next week

Sterling dropped in value yesterday after the latest Brexit related announcement was made.

There are conflicting opinions within the Conservative government as to whether or not there should be a open ended period of time that the UK remains a part of the Customs Union, should a deal not be in place by March of next year as planned.

The topic is heated to the extent that the current Brexit Secretary, David Davis had been rumoured to plan to step down if he didn’t get his way on this. He wanted there to be a time limit on how long the UK would remain part of the Customs Union if there is no plan in place, so based on yesterday’s market movement his plans aren’t favoured by the markets.

Next week there will be discussions amongst British lawmakers regarding the Brexit Bill and the amendments to it proposed by the house of lords recently. I expect this topic to have the potential to move markets depending on what’s confirmed. At the moment Brexit related news appears to be the biggest mover of the Pounds value, especially now that the interest rate hike from the BoE is likely to be pushed back towards the end of the year.

If you would like to be notified in the event of a major market movement, do feel free to register your interest with us.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Brexit talks put pressure on the pound

Will today's UK data provide another boost for the Pound?

Today Theresa May held crunch Brexit talks with Conservative MPs as Brexit Secretary David Davis led a revolt due to the terms of the ‘backstop’ plan. The Brexit secretary yesterday evening made threats that he would resign if the PM did not add a deadline to the ‘backstop’ proposal. With the relationship between the two appearing to be deteriorating by the day, sterling exchange rates struggled against the US Dollar throughout the mornings trading session until reports were released suggesting a final leave date has now been added to the proposal.

The ‘backstop’ proposal is a fallback agreement which will state that the UK will remain part of the customs union for an extended period of time if the UK and EU cannot come to an agreement by March next year.  No surprises Brexiteers are not happy with the arrangement as the UK will remain closely linked to the EU and this could have an influence on future trade deals that the UK try to put in place.

The EU summit at the end of the month had the potential to have a major impact on sterling exchange rates and with the recent commentary coming from the Conservative party I believe this has amplified the situation. Unfortunately I don’t believe its good news for clients buying a foreign currency, as its only a matter of time until the PM confirms that the UK and EU cannot come to an agreement in regards to the Irish Border.

Quite simply if I were buying a foreign currency I wouldn’t taken any risks and would look to make arrangements sooner rather than later.

When buying or selling the Pound its important to analyse both currencies that you will be trading. If you would like to save as much money as possible feel free to email me with the currency pair you are looking to trade and the time-scales you are working too and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will help you to make informed and educated decisions.

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