GBPEUR Exchange Rate: Week in Review August 21st

GBP EUR Higher After European Central Bank Rates

The GBP to EUR exchange rate dropped last week as the pair failed to hold onto the new yearly highs. We said in last week’s review for the week that the pair, “may have seen an important high this week” and that was the case. The UK economy’s GDP that missed the BoE expectations also saw a lower inflation number this week and traders have taken profits on the pound. The GBP to EUR was trading around the 1.1670 level heading into the weekend.

Rate Expectations Cool, Virus Expectations Rise for GBP

The pound versus the euro rate has met another perfect storm at the 1.1800 level this month with profit-taking setting in. Despite a strong GDP number, the 4.84% figure was 0.2% less than the Bank of England’s forecast in their most recent rate meeting.

Traders also saw a UK inflation rate that dipped to the bank’s 2% target after recent surges and that has taken hopes for an early tightening of policy off the table. The UK saw a stronger employment number on Tuesday, but traders decided to focus on rates and fears of rising virus cases in the UK as Thursday logged over 36,000 cases and 100 fatalities linked to the virus.
This has led to government advisers making gloomy statements about the winter months and traders will be worried that they have the ear of the decision makers in Downing Street.

Euro Boosted by Employment Figures and GDP

The euro was boosted by a confirmation of the 2% GDP performance in the second quarter, with data also showing a boost in employment.

In a separate release the Eurostat statistics office said that employment had grown 0.5% in the April-June period compared to the previous quarter. The figures helped to provide some clarity on the strength of the European economy, and some will be hoping that the gap can be tightened for the pound versus the euro.

European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane also gave an indication this week that Frankfurt is prepared to stomach higher inflation without raising interest rates.

In a blog post for the European Central Bank (ECB’s) website, Lane talked of the bank’s recent changes to its inflation target, where he said the ECB will only tighten policy by reducing stimulus or raising rates if there is strong evidence inflation will hit and stay at 2%

“Reaching the inflation target should be lasting and not just be the result of short-lived forces that lead to one-time increases in prices that are unlikely to lead to persistently higher year-over-year inflation,” he said.

The ECB is following other central banks by seeking to push the chances of rate hikes further out to 2023 as traders try to bring them forward into 2022.

The GBP to EUR rate is now likely to move lower and look for support, but another rise in virus cases is threatening to stall the recovery for now and that is causing a pullback.

You can get in touch to discuss these factors in further detail ahead of your currency exchange using the form below.

Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast: Sterling rates continue to suffer from Brexit uncertainty

GBP EUR Higher After European Central Bank Rates

GBP/EUR exchange rates continue to suffer due to Brexit Uncertainty

The pound to euro rate has hit a 23 month low this week. This can largely attributed to the higher probability of a no deal. The more likely a no deal is the potential outcome of Brexit the weaker you would expect sterling to become.

Boris will now have difficulty passing through any changes in legislation as the Conservatives lost to the Lib Dems in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election. Boris now only has the majority by one seat.

Boris ramps up preparations for No Deal Brexit

The new PM stated recently that he would be ‘turbocharging’ preparations for a no deal which caused further weakness for sterling. His attempt to use a no deal as ammunition to gain a more favourable deal is a dangerous one and he is adamant the UK will leave with or without a deal. Brussels stance has remained the same, there will be no concessions made to the deal currently on the table. It is not in Brussels best interest to offer the UK a favourable deal, they are trying to avoid a domino effect where other countries would follow suit. Italy for example are currently in huge debt, it now surpasses their GDP. The EU has threatened to impose a €3bn fine which will not sit well with Rome.

The time scale for Brexit does not bode well for sterling. Parliament is currently in recess until 3rd September leaving less than two months to find a Brexit resolution. Keep in mind Theresa May failed to get Brussels to budge in two and a half years. There are also rumours circulating that there could be a general election which would only create more political uncertainty and has the potential to cause further falls for sterling.

Poor Eurozone economic data

The euro is struggling with very poor economic data and inflation still remains a major concern. Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) has stated he will be willing to change monetary policy in order to stimulate growth which did cause weakness against the majority of major currencies. The problems with the UK however do seem to outweigh the problems in the Eurozone at present.

If you have a currency requirement, I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade, I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 19yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are authorised with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.

Sterling continues to slide against the Euro: Will the Pound fall below 1.10?

GBP EUR Recovers from Early Losses on EU Trade

The pound to euro rate is now on a 10 week losing streak as the markets await the result of the Conservative party leadership contest and the next movements once the UK has a new Prime Minister in place.

No Deal Brexit: Is it a likely to happen?

With the chance of a ‘no deal’ Brexit seemingly increasing over the past few weeks the pound really has started to struggle against all major currencies, most notably hitting a 27 month low against the dollar and closing in on a year low against the euro. The problem is at present that there is no glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel, once a new PM is in place MP’s are due to head off to summer recess, so it is unlikely that we will see any major progress in the short term.

No progress heightens the chance of no deal as we head closer and closer to the deadline on October 31st and no deal is on the horizon, companies are starting to hold back from any vast expenditure, the property market is stagnant and the whole of the UK is pretty much slowing down until there are any firm plans in place.

Will Pound to Euro rates drop below 1.10?

With this in mind it is no surprise that the pound is struggling, investors and speculators alike are staying away from sterling and many analysts believe that we may see this poor run of form continue due to the various reasons above.

I personally would not be surprised to see sterling euro exchange rates drop below 1.10 in the coming days, so if you are looking to buy euros in the near future it is sensible to consider all of the options available to you.

Should you be in the position that you need to buy or sell currency in the near future and you need our assistance then we would love to provide you with a quote and I would be surprised if we couldn’t save you money, which is exceptionally important in a market like this.

Feel free to fill in the form below and I will be happy to contact you personally to discuss your particular situation.

Pound to US Dollar forecast: Will Sterling continue its decline against the USD?

GBP EUR Lower After Rishi Sunak Autumn Budget

For clients that are selling US dollars to buy sterling, current exchange rates are fantastic in comparison to the last 10 years. As its been heavily documented in recent articles, the pound to US dollar rate continues to devalue due to the ongoing Brexit saga and only up until the last couple of months, the US Federal reserve have been hiking interest rates which has strengthened the greenback.

Brexit is an issue that is not going away: EU still unwilling to renegotiate Brexit deal

Looking ahead, quite simply the Brexit problems are not going away. On the 23rd of July we will find out who will take over No10, however my personal opinion is that it’s irrelevant. The EU have made it clear they are not prepared to renegotiate and I believe they will stick to this as they know that MPs within the UK will not support a no deal Brexit. In addition, many commentators are suggesting that a snap General election may have to be called and I think this is the most likely option. Therefore for clients that are selling pounds to buy dollars or in fact any foreign currency I don’t see the pounds fortune turning anytime soon.

US Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates

We now know that the Feds cycle of hiking interest rates is over, and in fact they are likely to start cutting interest rates in the upcoming months. US President Donald Trump has been putting major pressure on the FED stating that high interest rates are having a negative impact on the US economy, however the data doesn’t support it. Unemployment remains at record lows and jobs are being created, however there is a need to lift inflation and that’s why I think an interest rate cut may occur at the end of the month and once more this year.

When a central bank cuts interest rates the currency tends to devalue. Therefore, for clients that are buying US dollars there is an argument to suggest holding off until the interest rate decision at the end of the month, however you will also in that timescale find out who the next PM is which could cause fluctuations. for clients that are selling US dollars short term, exchange rates are fantastic therefore formulating a plan seems sensible. If you are buying or selling US dollars and would like assistance with currency exchange, feel free to fill in the form below.

Pound to US Dollar forecast: Best time in 2 years to sell US Dollars for Pounds

GBP USD Exchange Rate Rebounds Above 1.31

Pound to US Dollar exchange rate: Investors back the US Dollar

The US dollar has been in the ascendancy lately, as investors back the currency against all others. This is especially true of the US dollar against sterling, as the British currency suffers under Brexit uncertainties. GBP/USD levels had dipped into the 1.25’s but have staged a late recovery back over 1.25 in the day, as Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve Chairman, lines up the possibility of further interest rate cuts. GBP/USD levels still remain in the territory of the best time in 2 years to sell US dollars for pounds, what can we expect next?

Fed interest rate cut looks to further support strong US economy: Will USD rates continue to rise?

On the US currency side, it might be fair to say that cutting interest rates will weaken the currency, and the possibility of such a trend has been loosely re-established this afternoon, following the Jerome Powell’s comments. However, one of the reasons the US dollar has risen so much is that investors have embraced the cuts to the extent that, by cutting interest rates, the US is positioning itself to keep its economy strong and growing in the future. Recent jobs data for the US showed strong employment data which is further supportive of the economy and with the Fed now appearing inclined to cut on the 31st July, when they next meet, the economy should remain resilient and the currency strong.

US interest rates are still the highest of the world’s leading economies which will I am sure provide confidence for investors to keep backing the US dollar for a higher return on their investments. The future looks like it will prove beneficial for the US currency even with interest rate cuts ahead. Recent uncertainty over the US trade wars with China have even gently subsided, as investors have reasons to be optimistic over the more immediate outlook.

Brexit uncertainties remain: Sterling weakness likely to continue

On the British side, Brexit uncertainties look set to remain which will only keep pressure on the pound. Sterling is unlikely to be rising dramatically until there is some kind of clarity on Brexit which does not appear forthcoming. Having said that, the upcoming Conservative leadership race could provide further confidence for sterling but ultimately, the prospect of no-deal has probably risen as both Hunt and Boris are openly backing a no-deal option, something which has been closely associated with sterling weakness.

GBP/USD levels could now remain anchored in the 1.20’s according to some commentators, including Lee Hardman of MUFG, a Japanese Bank, who said in the FT yesterday that the recent fall below 1.25 could open the door to the 1.20 level.

Thank you for reading and please contact me directly using the form below to learn more about all of your options and the latest forecasts for GBP/USD or USD/GBP exchange rates.

Pound to Euro exchange rates: Will GBP/EUR rates fall again as Brexit uncertainty increases?

GBPEUR Exchange Rate Forecast: Pound-Euro Rates Remain at Higher Ranges but for How Long?

Pound to Euro rates struggle

GBP/EUR rates have fallen to a low of 1.1121 today, with the pound struggling to make any inroads against the EUR so far this week. In truth, GBP/EUR have remained extremely rangebound over the past couple of weeks, with no clear trend being defined following the pound’s downturn last month.

With Boris Johnson now the overwhelming favourite to take up the position in number 10 when the final results are in on July 22, it will be interesting to see how the markets react to his pending appointment. With the PM’s Brexit mandate likely to take centre stage, whoever takes up the mantel will be tasked with trying to break the current stalemate in parliament.

This will be essential if the UK has a realistic hope of leaving the EU with a deal by the revised deadline of October 31st, a scenario which would ultimately remove a no deal Brexit outcome.

No Deal threat: How could this influence Pound to Euro exchange rates?

Historically, the threat of no-deal has proved to be of detriment to sterling. If we do see a deal agreed then the pound may have more of a chance to recover some of its losses, but how far it can go is certainly up for debate.

However, the flip side to this is that Boris Johnson has been the most vocal of the candidates when it comes to the UK leaving the EU with no-deal. Chancellor Philip Hammond stated that the UK could lose up to 90 billion from its economy each year if the UK does leave without an agreement, a figure which will likely cause a huge amount of concern amongst investors.

The current uncertainty is unlikely to lend itself to a boost in confidence for the pound vs the euro in the short-term and despite the on-going economic issues inside the Eurozone, investors currently seem to be viewing the UK’s predicament as the more concerning.

If you would like to learn more on current factors influencing current GBP/EUR exchange rates, or have an upcoming currency transfer, feel free to contact me directly using the form below.

Pound to euro predictions: Forecast for the remainder of 2019

A Rollarcoaster Week for GBP EUR - Weekly Review June 18th 

Over the last 8 weeks, pound to euro exchange rates have dropped 5%. To put this into monetary value a €250,000 purchase now costs an additional £11,450. The pound has declined in value due to the chances of a no deal Brexit increasing. As it’s been highlighted over all media stations, front runner Boris Johnson has made it clear that the UK will be leaving the EU with or without a deal at the end of October.

New UK Prime Minister to be announced on 23rd July

This month the 160,000 Tory members will vote to decide who they want to be the next Prime Minister and the verdict will be announced on the 23rd July. If the polls are correct and Boris takes over at No. 10, the chances of crashing out of the EU without a deal increases, therefore I expect the pound to face further pressure against the euro. However if Jeremy Hunt manages to beat the odds and win, the pound could recover some of the losses it has seen over the last 8 weeks.

Pound to euro predictions for 2019

To forecast Pound to euro rates for the remainder of the year, I am predicting that Boris will become the next Prime Minster. Therefore throughout August we will find out more in regards to how the former Mayor of London wishes to proceed.

Regardless of who takes over, the EU’s position I believe will remain clear and the withdrawal agreement will not be changed. Therefore this could put further pressure on the pound. However come the end of October, I don’t believe the UK will crash out of the EU without a deal as MPs within the House of Commons will find a way of blocking it. In fact, the most likely option I believe will be a snap General election which Boris Johnson himself calls.

For clients that are buying euros, an uncertain time ahead is on the horizon. Therefore, if you buying property in Europe or have to pay a company invoice, buying euros upfront I believe is your best option. For clients selling euros to buy pounds, you are in a fantastic position. Exchange rates have dropped 5% in 8 weeks and uncertain times lay ahead. If I was in your position I would outline your requirements by filling in the form below, this will send your message directly to me and I will keep you up to date as developments unfold.

Pound to US Dollar predictions: Will the pound fall further against the dollar?

Pound to Dollar Rate Boosted by UK Retail Sales

The pound has had a torrid time against the US dollar for the last 4 months. GBP/USD (cable) mid market exchange rates have dropped approximately 5.5%. To put this into monetary value a $250,000 purchase is now just under £11,000 more expensive.

Brexit continues to hamper Sterling

It’s been heavily documented in previous articles and mainstream media around the globe, the on going Brexit saga is having a major impact on the value of the pound. Bookmakers are predicting that Brexiteer Boris Johnson will be taking over the Conservative Party and as we know, the former Mayor of London’s approach will be extremely different to outgoing Prime Minister Theresa May. The closer we get to the end of October and a deal not being in place, I expect the pound could lose further value.

Positive US China trade talks offer more support to the US Dollar

Last weekend Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping of the USA and China met at the G20 summit and reports are suggesting the talks went well. Mr Trump has announced that talks will begin once more to bring the ongoing trade war to an end, but he did confirm this wouldn’t be rushed. In regards to exchange rates, if the leaders of the two largest economies can reach an agreement sure this is a good thing for the US dollar.

Fed interest rate decision this month: How could these affect Pound to US Dollar rates?

Looking further ahead the major talking point this month will be the US interest rate decision at the end of the month. Mr Trump has made it clear that he believes the strong US dollar is having a major impact on the US economy therefore he wants the Federal reserve to cut interest rates. He even went on to say that he believes President Mario Draghi of the ECB should take over the federal reserve. It looks like the Fed will cut by 25 bps and this may be priced in before the event. However if a surprise cut of 50 bps materalises this could weaken the dollar dramatically.

In regards to the UK, the Tory leadership contest is the major talking point. The 160,000 Conservative MPs will vote on who they want to be the next PM. With the pounds fall in value over the last 6 weeks, I believe the market has priced in a Boris victory. However if Jeremy Hunt wins this could have a positive impact on the pounds value as he’s not keen on crashing out of the EU without a deal. If you would like to keep up to date on factors influencing GBP/USD exchange rates, or have an upcoming currency transfer, you can contact me directly using the form below.

Pound Sterling exchange rates remain flat with minimal economic data or Brexit news to feed from

GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review June 25th   

So far this week we have not seen a huge amount of volatility for Pound Sterling exchange rates, if anything, against the Euro the Pound dropped ever so slightly.

News released this morning indicates that Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England is set to potentially take over the helm at the IMF (International Monetary Fund). This no great surprise as he is due to leave at the start of 2020. He had already agreed to remain longer than his original post was due to end to help steer the UK through the choppy Brexit waters. Hopefully whichever way that the Brexit situation ends up, something will be resolved before his departure.

Pound Sterling exchange rates: Brexit uncertainty continue to hamper the Pound

On the Brexit front we still have no new news and it is not a great surprise that the Pound is struggling as political and economic uncertainty can historically be damaging for a currency. Brexit brings both to the table. With no clear ending in sight it is hard to see any dramatic improvement in Sterling exchange rates in the near future.

Economic data for next week

Economic data is reasonably quiet for the rest of the week, on Wednesday of next week we do have a blockbuster of a day in terms of economic data, with industrial and manufacturing production, growth and trade balance figures all due in the morning, and the NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) growth estimates due out in the afternoon.

European economic data is very thin on the ground over the course of next week so it will be more likely that political news will impact the value of Euro exchange rates unless any economic surprises pop up.

On that front there is the potential for a number of economies within the Eurozone to hit the headlines as many are struggling. However, with Brexit still being the star of the media show a lot of these issues are being overlooked.

All in all it is a tricky period to predict exchange rates and it does look like rates may remain fairly range bound over the coming days. Having worked in the markets for nearly a dozen years surprises can happen so it is always key to keep an eye on the exchange rates on a regular basis.

If you are in the process of buying or selling a property overseas and you would like my assistance, then it would be a pleasure to help you with the timing of your transfer and with making the most for your money when the time arises. If you would like to discuss a potential exchange with me personally then feel free to fill in the form below and I will be happy to contact you for a no obligation discussion.

Pound to Dollar forecast: Sterling continues to decline against the US Dollar

Pound to Dollar forecast: Sterling continues to decline against the US Dollar

Over the past week the Pound has lost over 1.5% against the Dollar with the pairing witnessing political uncertainty and poor economic for the UK and positive news on trade talks between the US and China.

Pound Sterling forecast: The Pound’s value continues to drop

The Pound’s value has fallen across the board in the past few weeks as investors and speculators alike avoid Sterling until there is a much clearer path and picture ahead. It is quite understandable that Sterling is dropping. Although it does look likely that Boris Johnson will be taking the reins we still do not now what the plan is and how Brexit may work out.

The chance of a ‘no deal’ Brexit is ever so slightly increasing as we head closer to the next deadline of October 31st and this is giving the markets the jitters once more.

Economic data has been fairy poor as well over the last few weeks as much of the country appears to be holding back and waiting to see what happens with Brexit. This is leading to fewer business decisions being made, businesses and individuals taking precautions and the housing market and retail sector slowing.

Positivity for the US / China trade deal helps the Dollar

If you look at the US and the Dollar, Donald Trump’s progress with a possible trade deal with China has been taken positively by the market and the US economy is still performing reasonably well, although overall growth has slowed a little.

There had been talks of a possible interest rate cut in recent times which had weakened the Dollar a little. One of the key factors and economic data releases that may impact that decision is Non Farm payroll data which is released on Friday afternoon.

This measures the number of people in non-agricultural employment in the US and can be a good measure of economic performance. Analysts can predict this figure incorrectly so the market often moves quite quickly to correct itself, this can cause Dollar volatility.

If you are in the position that you need to carry out a currency exchange involving the Dollar or any currency pegged to the Dollar and you would like assistance then we can help you here. Feel free to fill in the form below and I will be happy to get in touch with you personally to discuss your specific situation.

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