GBP/USD exchange rates edge lower due to UK economic data and US border security deal

GBP/USD exchange rates edge lower due to UK economic data and US border security deal

UK growth predicted to slow in 2019

UK economic data has been in the spotlight since the Bank of England last week announced there growth forecasts for the year ahead. The Governor Mark Carney predicted that growth this year will be the slowest since 2009 and blamed the uncertainty of Brexit as one of the key factors. To make things worse yesterday’s growth numbers released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed growth numbers at 1.4% which was down by 0.4%. With the UK economy slowing, this is a key concern for clients that are converting sterling into US dollars in the short term.

US border security deal

Across the Atlantic, Republicans and Democrats appear to have reached an agreement in principle over border security and in particular the wall that will separate the US and Mexico. By agreeing a deal in principle reports are suggesting that another Government shutdown is unlikely, which bodes well for clients that are selling US dollars to buy pounds.

Earlier in the year President Donald Trump’s partial shutdown lasted 35 days and was the longest in history. According to Forbes the shutdown cost the US Government $11bn, which just shows the importance of this deal in principle.

Theresa May to brief MPs on the state of the Brexit negotiations

Looking further ahead, it’s an important day for UK Prime Minister Theresa May. The PM will be back in the House of Commons briefing fellow MPs on the state of the Brexit negotiations. Unless she has been keeping updates from the media, there isn’t much to report as no party has come up with a solution for the Irish backstop. Therefore I expect the PM to come under further scrutiny and MPs will continue to claim she is running down the clock, which could put pressure on sterling.

As for economic data Governor of the Bank of England will be deliver a speech around midday and later in the afternoon Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also give a speech. Both central bankers will highlight the state of the UK and US economy which in turn could provide volatile trading periods.

After the economic data releases we have seen for the UK over the last week, I find it difficult to see how Mark Carney can be upbeat. However any nod to the border security from the Fed Chair could be seen as a positive for the US dollar.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, the currency company I work for offers exchange rates that can beat the high street banks, alongside up to date economic information which helps clients to make informed decisions when purchasing currency. If you would like further information for free, please feel the form in below and I will personally get in touch.

Pound vs Euro forecast: Sterling loses ground following Brady Amendment

Pound vs Euro forecast: Sterling loses ground following Brady Amendment

Pound vs Euro forecast: Theresa May to renegotiate Irish Backstop

The Pound has lost ground against the Euro following last night’s Parliamentary vote after MPs voting in favour of the Brady amendment. MPs voted through the amendment by 317 votes to 301 to pass May’s deal if she can negotiate changes to the Irish backstop.

Theresa May has vowed to return to Parliament with a deal to be voted on by 13th February if Brussels are willing to make concessions, this is no easy task.

Yvette Cooper’s amendment to extend Article 50 was rejected. Labour attempted to make a change to reject a no deal in principle by 318 votes to 310.

Parliament agreeing to a deal is all very well, but it still has to be passed by Brussels. European Brexit Coordinator, Guy Verhofstadt said yesterday that the European Parliament will block the withdrawal agreement if any amendments are made. This also falls in line with European Commission President, Jean Claude Junker’s comments, who on several occasions has stated no concessions will be made.

Will the EU make changes to the Brexit deal?

A huge question which is yet to be answered is, are Brussels simply posturing? Or are they willing to make any changes?

At present it would seem the latter. May postponed the vote on her deal in December in hope of returning to Brussels and making amendments to her deal and was stonewalled.

Euro outlook

The Euro has it’s own troubles. Economic growth in the bloc has slowed to it’s lowest levels since 2014 and Purchase Manager Index forecasts point at further falls in business activity in 2019.

The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi has blamed the slowdown on external issues stating the fall in GDP is down to “the threat of protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility”.

Mr Draghi also went on to say that he believes there is no danger of a Eurozone recession. This is despite the situation in Greece, Italian debt (second only to Greece) and the engine-room of the Eurozone, Germany recently narrowly avoiding entering a recession.

If it were not for Brexit I think the pound could make some impressive gains against the Euro.

Unfortunately I think Sterling will be bound to current buoyancy levels with 1.15 being the peak, the exception being a momentary spike on Friday to 1.1602. I think Theresa May is going to face a great deal of hassle getting a deal through and we could see Sterling weaken. If you have to move short term buying the Euro I would consider moving at current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.

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Pound to Euro rates: How will GBP/EUR perform following the Brexit vote?

Pound to Euro forecast: Why buying euros now seems sensible

Pound to Euro rates could be in for a very volatile period as the market digests the latest new on Brexit expected in the next 24 hours. All eyes will be on the Parliamentary vote this evening but it might be tomorrow and the rest of the week which delivers on the fresh news.

Clients concerned with the pound against the Euro could be in for a very volatile few days as investors track the latest news and reprice the value of the pound. The outcomes are wide ranging from the Brexit vote and the rest of this week. Clients with a position to buy or sell the pound should be very conscious of the potential for large unexpected movement.

The vote takes place anytime after 7pm tonight (UK time) with the result not expected until much later in the evening. Clients with positions to buy or sell the pound might wish to take stock of the volatile trading conditions and put some careful plans in place.

Options to help manage your exposure

A Limit order will guarantee an exchange rate if the market moves to a point of your choosing and is a great tool in such conditions. Another option is a forward contract which allows you to secure your currency in advance, even if you don’t have all the funds available.

The pound has been labelled impossible to trade in recent weeks as investors avoid the currency for fear of unexpected volatility sharply moving the currency markets and catching them off guard.

The GBP/EUR rate could easily slip below 1.10 if the deal is defeated heavily in Parliament and markets have loosely priced in bad news. Any sign the bill will not be defeated and passes, or fails only slightly, with the opportunity for Theresa May to go back to Brussels, would likely see sterling higher.

The possibility of a vote of no confidence in the Government, a second referendum and extending Article 50 could all see a dramatic time for the pound. Theresa May will have to the end of the week to respond, the pound will take it cues from this news.

If you have a position to buy or sell the pound against the Euro, why not speak to me today to receive some guidance on what may be the best way forward. You can contact me directly using the form below:

GBP/EUR Alert – Will the pound fall dramatically next week?

GBP/EUR Alert - Will the pound fall dramatically next week?

The pound could be in for some severely testing times as the latest Parliamentary vote on Brexit approaches next week. Whilst last night the Government was defeated on a Finance Bill which should help prevent a no-deal Brexit, the pound could still be in for some volatile sessions ahead.

No-deal Brexit deemed too disruptive to UK economy

The British Government is planning for a no-deal Brexit but many in Parliament have said they will do everything in their power to stop a no-deal, for fear it will be too disruptive for the UK economy.

There is an expectation the deal will not get through in the vote on Tuesday. This could see sterling much lower as the market is forced to decide on what the likely outcomes are in the future. These include a General Election and also a second EU Referendum.

Assuming the vote does not get passed, it is difficult to see how the pound will not have a good day. In December, the postponing of the vote saw the pound losing ground as investors lost faith in the UK and the currency. The only way I can see sterling having a good day, is if the Bill is passed which seems highly unlikely.

Increased political uncertainty is negative for the Euro

The Euro is under pressure too and if it wasn’t for sterling being in such a quagmire, the pound would probably be doing much better against the single currency. Expectations for the Euro are still rather mixed, increased political uncertainty in the Eurozone may see the currency softer as investors await further news on economic news.

Yesterday, the German economy was in the spotlight highlighting the fears of either a German recession, or worse a Eurozone recession. German Manufacturing activity showed a decline which could be something of concern for the future. However, despite concerns in the Eurozone, the Euro continues to defy expectations and find buoyancy against the pound.

I expect the pound could be in for a few excessively volatile trading sessions in the coming weeks. Clients with a position to buy or sell the pound against the Euro might wish to take stock of the major movements we might expect.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to welcoming any questions or comments. If you would like to discuss anything in my GBP/EUR forecast please use the form below to send me a message:

Will the Pound to Euro rate strengthen ahead of the Brexit meaningful vote next week?

Pound to Euro rate tests 1.15

The Pound to Euro exchange rate continues to fall lower ahead of the eagerly awaited Parliamentary vote on the existing Brexit deal to be held next Tuesday 15th January. Now that Parliament has returned from the Christmas recess the conversation this week will be dominated by Brexit. The Government is currently waiting for further reassurances from the EU on the Northern Ireland backstop in the event that a future trade agreement is not reached.

The issue surrounds whether or not the backstop is time limited as there are fears that Britain could be indefinitely tied to EU rules. The issue remains controversial and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) have vowed that they will not vote with the Government unless the terms of the backstop are changed. Any clarifications from the EU this week ahead of this key vote are likely to create major volatility for the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) pair.

Will the Pound to Euro rate strengthen?

To date the EU has not offered anything deemed strong enough to win the support of the House of Commons, so it is my view that if a strong offering was to be made this week then there could be a considerable positive movement for the Pound vs the Euro. The markets would likely begin to price in the chance that there may be a hope for Theresa May’s deal to go through. Everything now depends on what the EU is prepared to clarify on the terms of the backstop.

The House of Commons will start the debate on the withdrawal agreement tomorrow and an amendment has been tabled by a cross party group of MPs which seeks to restrain the Government’s powers in the event of a no deal Brexit. Ultimately the debate and any amendments will move the Government either closer to or further away from a no deal Brexit.

Data releases which could influence the Pound

Whilst Brexit remains the dominating factor for the Pound to Euro rate there are some economic data releases which could influence sterling exchange rates. UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers are released tomorrow morning and can be a big driver for exchange rates. Friday also sees manufacturing, trade and industrial data with a weaker outlook expected. Although the manufacturing sector has seen something of a mini boom this is reportedly more to do with stockpiling of goods in readiness for a no deal Brexit.

If you would like to learn more about Pound to Euro exchange rates and the events which could affect them, please do feel free to send me a message directly using the form below:

Pound to Euro forecast: Will the busy calendar move GBP/EUR over the next 2 weeks?

Pound to Euro forecast: Will the busy calendar move GBP/EUR over the next 2 weeks?

Many from within the financial markets are expecting to see some potentially large price changes over the next few weeks, as we’re likely to understand the next steps in the Brexit process during this time.

Last month the UK’s Prime Minister, Theresa May cancelled the vote on her Brexit deal in Parliament as she expected to lose quite dramatically. This was done just before the vote was expected to take place so the markets aren’t likely to rule out the chances of this happening once again even though just yesterday May confirmed the vote will take place next week. It’s since been confirmed that the vote will take place on the 15th and I think the outcome could result in movement for the GBP/EUR rate.

MPs return from their recess break today too and as of Wednesday the Brexit will be discussed in the House of Commons. Market commentators and the bookies are predicting that the chance of a no-deal Brexit has increased and my personal opinion is that we could see the pound to euro rate drop to new annual lows below the 1.10 mark if these predictions materialise.

Brexit related updates have been thin recently so the return of MPs, along with next Tuesday’s vote has the markets waiting for the next impetus for market movement.

Aside from the vote, next week I think that Friday could be busy for the Pound as at 9:30am there will be a number of data releases due out. These include Trade Balance figures and Industrial and Manufacturing figures. Although Brexit is the main driver of the pound to euro rate, any shocks from the data released could result in GBP/EUR movement.

Pound to euro forecast: French protests spreading to other countries

Meanwhile in Europe the protests over in France continue and appear to be spreading into some other countries. This holds the potential to negatively impact the Euro, especially if the issues begin to take their toll on the economies of the countries involved.

If you would like to discuss anything you have reading my pound to euro forecast, or wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement involving the GBP/EUR rate, do feel free to send me a message using the form below:

GBP to AUD Forecast: Will the GBP/AUD rate rise or fall in January?

GBP to AUD forecast: Will buying Australian dollars become cheaper in the weeks ahead?

GBP to AUD Forecast: The pound to Australian dollar exchange rates has been very volatile as we begin 2019, rising and falling on various changing sentiments towards both the Brexit and the Trade Wars. The latest news was surrounding the US Non-Farm Payroll data from last week which showed that the US economy is performing much better than expected.

This triggered a rise in the Australian dollar which as a commodity currency, will benefit in times of good news for global trade. The Aussie rose on Friday and has continued to perform well coming into this week, particularly against a weaker pound. Any good news for sterling is often short-lived with the uncertainties of Brexit hanging over the Pound.

2019 is not going to be a quiet year with the unfolding of Brexit and the Trade Wars, probably the two biggest developments in the market to drive the pairing. The improving economic news for the US helped to dispel the notion that the global economy is suffering although other data sets have not be so positive.

Chinese Manufacturing data released earlier this year showed Chinese Manufacturing in decline which saw GBP/AUD hit near 1.82. The GBP/AUD rate currently sits at 1.78 which is 4 cents down from those highs, this move was largely unexpected as many have been predicting the US economy would actually be faltering in 2019, not posting record numbers.

January could see further gains for the Aussie against the pound as next week is the UK Parliamentary vote on Mrs May’s Brexit deal which could be a major market mover. Investors will be eagerly awaiting to see if the deal goes ahead and what the outcomes are.

There is all manner of potentially negative news for sterling from this vote, including a Second Referendum or General Election. The market is likely to view these events in a negative light since it only increases the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit.

If you have a GBP/AUD position to consider, 2019 has started off in typically volatile fashion, which I expect will only continue. If you wish to discuss any strategy or plans relating to an exchange, please do not hesitate to contact me directly to discuss further.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to welcoming any questions or comments. If you would like to discuss anything in my GBP to AUD forecast please use the form below to send me a message:

Pound to Euro Forecast: How will GBP/EUR perform in January?

Pound to Euro Forecast: How will GBP/EUR perform in January?

In this pound to Euro forecast we look ahead at the events that could influence GBP/EUR rates in January. What can we expect in January and will GBP/EUR rates drop further?

January is looking to be a crucial month for Brexit which is the main driver of the pound to Euro rate. The pound has been weaker in recent weeks as investors lack of understanding of the Brexit is reflected in the price of the pound. The Euro has been finding some favour too, further exacerbating the trend on the pair.

The key date for January will be the week commencing 14th January where we have the next scheduled Parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. This might still be postponed and there are conflicting reports over just what we might expect from this episode.

Ultimately, we might still be looking at a no-deal scenario which would see the pound weaken, many forecasters had previously placed GBP/EUR at closer to parity should we see this turn of events.

What might be more likely is that we see either a General Election or a second EU Referendum as the number of options available diminishes and we are left with these outcomes. I believe either of these outcomes would see the pound much lower as investors are forced to consider the potentially negative elements.

There is now a growing sense that the pound will only struggle further in the coming weeks as even if Theresa May’s Brexit deal is passed, there will then be a whole new set of questions over just how Brexit will pass.

Pound to Euro Forecast: How will the Euro perform?

The Euro is stronger entering 2019 as investors find comfort from the resolution over the Italian budget standoff and also warm to the idea of the ECB, European Central Bank, making further progress with their economic plans.

For clients with a GBP/EUR currency exchange in 2019, now could be a very good time to review your position. The expectation is for increased uncertainty over Brexit but any signs the political or economic situations in the Eurozone are not going to plan, would weigh on the Euro.

I expect to encounter a range of 1.07-1.15 in the month, taking account of the possibility of all eventualities.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to welcoming any questions or comments. If you would like to discuss anything in my pound to Euro forecast please use the form below to send me a message:

Pound to Euro Rate Falls During Overnight Flash Crash

Pound to Euro Forecast: Brexit Uncertainty Continues Following PM's House of Commons Defeat

The pound to euro rate has fallen lower as we have moved into 2019 with rates for the GBP to EUR pair having fallen to below 1.1050. A mini flash crash was seen in overnight trading with a sudden but short lived fall in the pound which has been attributed to low liquidity conditions at this time of year and at this time of night when many of the exchange markets were shut whilst Japan is enjoying a four day holiday. The crash also appears to stem from a poor set of forecasts for Apple Inc’s revenue which saw substantial losses in its share value, which in turn is having a knock on effect on the currency markets with GBP to EUR trading lower.

Pound to Euro rate: Concerns as 2019 begins

2019 starts the year with a number of major concerns over Brexit as well as the continued uncertainty over the US trade wars. There are real concerns for the Chinese economy and this impacts on the global economy too. With the prospect of the US applying further trade tariffs on all of China’s exports then there is likely to be more reaction for the pound and euro to any developments here.

Brexit meanwhile is already proving to be the main driver for the pound and this is expected to intensify in these coming weeks after Parliament returns from the Christmas recess on the 7th of January. The Parliamentary vote that was to be held before Christmas is now scheduled to be voted on before 21st January, with the 14th January a likely date.

Debating of the Brexit deal that has been agreed between the UK and EU will commence on the 9th of January. It has already been reported that one of the former Brexit secretary’s David Davis, has said that there is not enough support for the deal at this point in time and is urging that the vote be delayed again. The continued uncertainty over whether or not there will be a Brexit deal is keeping the pound on the back foot and there is every chance the pound may fall further in the run up to this important Parliamentary vote.

If Prime Minister Theresa May is unable to secure a majority in the House of Commons then the default option on Brexit is to revert to a no deal and this outcome is proving to be a distinct possibility which carries negative risk for the pound to euro rate.

If you would like to learn more about pound to euro exchange rates please do feel free to send me a message using the form below:

Sterling exchange rates begin the year in negative territory, is a move below 1.10 for GBP/EUR realistic?

Brexit news: Is a move below 1.10 for GBP/EUR realistic

The Pound is trading in negative territory against the board of major currency pairs this morning, with GBP/EUR dropping into the 1.10s at the time of writing. The pair have been range bound for a while now, mostly trading between 1.1050 and 1.1200, although there are plenty of key dates this month that could push the pair out of this trading range.

Brexit uncertainties are likely to remain an issue for Sterling until at least the middle of this month. MPs will return from their Christmas break on the 7th of this month and then on the 14th there will be the vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. This vote was delayed early last month after she felt that there could be a dramatic loss on the cards. This vote is likely to be followed closely and if you’re planning on making a currency exchange involving the Pound or Euro then this date should be followed closely and planned around.

A week later, on the 21st there could also be market volatility as this date is the final date the Government has to release its withdrawal plans. If it hasn’t happened by then MPs will gain influence on the PM’s next steps. The outcome of the vote one week prior to this date is likely to tie into this deadline.

GBP/EUR rates: Brexit related updates to remain the key driver

The Brexit is planned to take place on the 29th of March and by this date Parliament must have passed the EU Withdrawal Bill which at the moment is looking like a difficult task. I’m expecting Brexit related updates to remain the key driver although there will be PMI Construction figures released at 9.30am tomorrow and then Services PMI figures released at the same time on Friday.

There could be movement for GBP/EUR brought on by Euro price changes later in the week when Consumer Price Index figures will be released, covering Inflation levels throughout the Eurozone. A positive for the Euro has been the agreement between the Italian Government and the EU regarding its domestic spending allowances but I think this strain on the relationship could resurface in the future. Another potential downside for the Euro’s value is the impact to the French economy the recent protests have caused.

If you would like to be updated in the event of a major market movement for GBP/EUR, do feel free to register your interest with me by sending me a message using the form below.

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