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Sterling weakness

UK Budget and Cypriot Fears-How will this affect my currency transfer?

Will the Pound manage to break 1.30 against the US Dollar this week?

With the UK Budget due later today the currency markets are holding their breath in anticipation of what Chancellor George Osborne will announce. The Chancellor has already told his staff that they will need to cut 2% of their departments’ spending for the next two years and the proposed saving of £2.5bn will go to infrastructure plans in order to boost growth in the UK. With Great Britain having lost its triple A credit rating recently and close to possibly dropping into a triple dip recession at the end of this month we are entering a very uncertain period.

Osborne will begin speaking at 1230 UK time so if you are thinking about making a currency transfer please contact me on 01494-787-478 and ask for Tom Holian and I’ll happily provide you with a free quote to exchange currency. The coalition have made the deficit reduction the main focus recently so cuts will likely be in the forefront of the Budget. One important announcement may be a change to the inflation target as set out by the Bank of England. Currently the target is 2% and with inflation having remained above this level for quite some time the Chancellor may look to alter this figure.

Cypriot Banking fears cause fallout across Europe

Overnight in Cyprus political leaders have voted in favour of rejecting an international bailout deal. After the planned levy on savers’ accounts was failed to be approved of in parliament Finance Minister Michael Sarris is currently in Russia trying to seek a deal owing to the amount of Russian investment on the island nation. Banks will continue to remain shut until Thursday in order to avoid a run on the bank.

This morning GBPEUR exchange rates have fallen by over 0.6% so far and GBPUSD by 0.5% as investors remain cautious about the Budget later today. For a free quote or if you want to be alerted to markets spikes please email me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk quoting ‘CURRENCY SPIKE ALERT’ in the title of the email.

 

Important day for Sterling exchange rates – Unemployment, wage growth and comments from the BOE

Today we have a fairly important day for Sterling exchange rates.

Today’s unemployment and average earnings figures will be key for Sterling’s performance for the rest of the week, not only is it a key economic data release for the U.K but it will also be closely watched by the Bank of England too, as this data will have an impact on their next move on interest rates.

Average earnings figures will be the key figure they will be looking for improvement on, one of the key sticking points for the BOE is the fact that average earnings (the increase in peoples  earnings) is still a way behind the pace of inflation (the rise in the cost of goods and services) which could cause trouble for the economy going forward, especially should the BOE make any changes to interest rates.

Essentially, an increase in average earnings may lead to the Pound having a nice boost tomorrow morning as it may increase the chance of an interest rate hike coming for the U.K, should average earnings remain the same or drop off then the Pounds may weaken, as it may kick the chances of a rate hike further down the road.

Later in the day we have several members of the Bank of England speaking too, and should they continue their hawkish (or positive) stance on interest rates then the Pound may have a good solid day ahead, equally should they dampen expectations then we may see a drop off and lose the gains that were made yesterday.

We did see positive gains yesterday following news that the EU Parliament may be considering giving Britain privileged access to the single market, this was seen as positive Brexit news and even the slightest hint of positive news regarding Brexit can give Sterling a boost.

If you are looking to buy any foreign currency with Sterling or should you need to bring a large sum of foreign currency back into Sterling then it is well worth getting in touch with me directly.

I can help you both in terms of timing your transfer, keeping you up to date with any spikes in the market and of course getting you the best rate when you come to book the deal out.

For a free, no obligation discussion on how I can help you with this important decision please feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch with you personally to see how I can help.

UPDATE 

U.K unemployment has risen from 4.3% to 4.4% and wage growth has remained at 2.5%. This has led to a small drop int eh value of Sterling but nothing too major. Contact me today for further thoughts!

Sterling spikes against most majors – A good week for the Pound but will it continue?

Sterling spiked against all major currencies in trading yesterday afternoon, hitting the highest point since June 2017 against the Euro and offering those looking to buy foreign currency in the near future a fantastic opportunity.

The Pound has been on a slow rise this year and yesterday’s further boost shows once again that confidence in the U.K economy and indeed the Pound, is rising, but we do still need to be cautious that it would only take one bad piece of economic or Brexit news to stop it in its tracks.

For those who are regular followers of our website you will more than likely be aware that these spikes in the market do not seem to stick around for long – well they certainly haven’t since the EU Referendum anyway!

Sterling has remained fairly steady throughout the course of the trading day, if anything losing a little ground which is more than likely due to profit taking following the recent spike we have seen.

next week we have a lot of economic data out for the U.K including unemployment, average earnings, inflation and retail sales data all due out between Tuesday and Thursday. Depending on how good or bad this data is, Sterling may continue its charge or this could see the end of the spike we have seen recently.

I personally still feel that Sterling is undervalued against most major currencies and that there is plenty of room for the Pound to climb higher assuming there are no blips with brexit talks and the proposed interest rate hike still goes ahead in May.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving buying foreign currency with the Pound or selling foreign currency back and buying Pounds then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can get in touch with me by emailing me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help you. We offer highly competitive exchange rates along with help on timing your transaction and would like to think our customer service is way above and beyond elsewhere. I look forward to speaking with you.

Australian Dollar keeps going from strength to Strength

The Aussie Dollar seems to be going from strength to strength at present. The Australian dollar edged up during the Aussie trading session to reach record peaks against the euro for a third day running after a strong set of jobs data signalled more interest rate rises in Australia.

The Australian dollar was also strong on the its U.S. counterpart at $0.9276, after data showed 19,600 jobs were added in March and unemployment steadied at 5.3 percent, with details painting an even brighter picture.

The RBA, which lifted rates in five of its last six meetings, has said repeatedly rates need to rise further toward “normal” or historical average levels.

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the contact form and I will be in touch with you shortly.

The Pound fails to hold on to its recent gains, will the sell-off continue due to Inflation fears? (Joseph Wright)

The rate of Inflation in the UK (the Consumer Prices Index) rose to 2.7% in April, an increase from the figure of 2.3% in March. This is the fastest increase since September 2013 which just shows how quickly the rate is increasing.

This Inflation update comes after it was announced last week that wage growth in the UK isn’t increasing at the rate of Inflation and this has spooked the markets, resulting in a sell-off of the Pound.

Under usual circumstances the financial markets would expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates to try and counter the steep rise, but due to the fact there’s a general election next month in the UK this has been generally ruled out and the Pound is paying the price.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate prior to these updates was trading comfortably towards the top of its current trading range just below the 1.20 mark, whereas this morning the sell-off has continued pushing the GBP/EUR rate as low as 1.1603 at one stage.

The Pound has been dipping against all major currency pairs over the past few days with this morning being the first time the Pound has got some rest-bite as it’s trading more or less flat across the board at the time of writing.

Economic data releases are playing an important role in the Pound’s price movements at the moment so do feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept updated.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD exchange rate forecasts. Get the best deal on your foreign exchange

Escalating Trade War with China Putting Pressure on the USD

As we head towards the tail end of the week we have another busy day ahead on the money markets. Today we have the release of the Bank of England interest rate deciosion at 12:00 followed by our Euro zone counterparts releasing their decision at 12:45. Both central banks are expecting to keep their respective base rates on hold and this is unlikely to cause too much volatility for the GBP/EUR pair but watch out for the post interest rate press conference held by Mario Draghi (head of the European Central Bank). Often ‘Super’ Mario, as he is affectionately known to some, can be notoriously optimistic about the Euro zone and its future and it is often this and how investors interpret his comments as to what can affect the direction of the Euro – anyone with an interest in the Euro should keep a close eye on this press conference. Likewise watch out for the NIESR GDP estimate for GDP  (Q1 2013 forecast at -0.3%). The NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) is a well respected think tank and often accurate with their predictions, should we see -0.3% growth in Q1 then the UK will be officially back in recession, this data is unlikely to do many favours for the pound.

As with the Euro the pound has had a tricky time of late against the greenback. The pound has fallen some 4.5% since the ‘fiscal cliff’ debacle and is showing little signs of slowing. To me there is more room for the pound to lose against the dollar and you may find a move towards 1.55 short term, particulalry if investor confidence takes a hit and the dollar gains from its ‘safe haven’ tag. I for one however feel the dollar is not the safe haven it once was and I can see the dollar losing ground when the US debt ceiling deadline creeps ever nearer. Unless the US can extend this deadline and congress can reach an agreement, the US cannot afford to pay off its debt and it is effectively bankrupt. Now this scenario is highly unlikley to occur as the knock on effects across the financial markets would be catastrophic, however for me it is likley to put pressure back on the dollar. The deadline as already been extended until mid May (originally was the end of February) – come April/May expect the dollar to see pressure and I for one can see 1.60 return, untill then USD buyers are unlikley to get much change from this market.

Overnight Australian unemployment figures and business sentiment figures were slightly worse than expected. We have seen the Aussie weaken by 0.3% as a result breaching 1.52. Tonight at 00:30 GMT watch out for the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement – this will give insight to future monetary policy and how the economy is performing. This may well hint at future interest rate cuts – we have seen a series of cuts from the RBA over the past 18 months and should this suggest more to come against the dollar could lose out.

Currently this market is proving to be extremely volatile. It is currently not uncommon to see the market swing anywhere between 1-2 cents each day making it extremely difficult to forecast the next market move. For this reason it is becoming increasingly more important for clients to keep in regular contact with their broker. We are here to keep our clients up to date with market trends and have a number of tools to help safeguard and guarantee a particular rate of exchange for delivery at a pre-agreed maturity date. Should you wish to discuss the current market and how this may affect your individual requirement then please do not hesitate to contact me (Mike) at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Forecast – How will the Pound Fare in 2018?

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

As we head into 2018, those clients holding Sterling will be questioning how the Pound will fare over the coming months.

Sterling found life tough going for much of last year, as stagnant Brexit negotiations and a divided government handicapped any major advances.

Investor confidence in the UK economy evaporated as quick as its growth forecasts shrank. Many analysts were predicting a fall towards parity against the EUR and below 1.20 against the USD.

However, as is often the case with the currency markets, conditions altered and market perception improved slightly as 2017 came towards a close.

The the Pound found some much needed support, as a breakthrough in Brexit talks helped to alleviate some pressure. Whilst there are still many unanswered questions in terms of how the UK economy will look following out separation from the EU, the outlook is slightly more positive as we head into the first quarter of this year.

This new found optimism has been supported by some strong Manufacturing data (this accounts for 10% of the UK’s economic output) and the hope now is that the Pound has at least found a stronger foothold against the other major currencies.

Despite this slight upturn, I still feel that sterling will struggle to make an aggressive impact against the EUR or USD this year, with investors remaining sceptical regarding how the next phase of Brexit talks will progress.

Brexit has been and will be the driving force behind investor confidence in the UK and ultimately the Pound, so any improvements or downturn in these is likely to have a significant impact on Sterling’s value over the coming weeks & months.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Could the Euro get even stronger against the Pound? (Tom Holian)

The rate to buy Euros with Pounds has continued to struggle this week after UK inflation data published yesterday came out lower than expected.

Rising UK inflation was the main reason for the interest rate hike earlier this month and as we saw a fall this means that the chances of any further interest rate hikes coming are now becoming less likely.

The interest rate hike was the first since 2007 but the Pound dropped as the sentiment was very dovish and another reason given for the rate hike was in reaction to the ongoing Brexit negotiations.

Another reason for the Pound’s recent bout of weakness vs the Euro is due to the problems surrounding Prime Minister Theresa May.

At the moment there are reports that 40 MPs are ready to put pen to paper in a vote of no confidence in the current leader.

With another 8 votes needed to move for a leadership election any further movement forward on this subject could cause further problems for Sterling exchange rates.

There are a number of economic data releases due out later this morning beginning with UK unemployment figures which generally speaking have been very strong. However, the real concern has been that of Average Earnings which have been falling behind inflation levels.

Closely following the jobs data is Eurozone Trade Balance and with Germany close to a record high for its own Trade Surplus then I think the data from the continent could provide the Euro with further strength against the Pound later on this morning.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

Should I buy Canadian dollars now?

Should I buy Canadian dollars now?

Its been a tough couple of days for the Canadian dollar vs Sterling so should you buy Canadian dollars now? Yesterday the Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold at 1.75% and thereafter provided an extremely dovish statement which was a surprise to the markets.

The Central Bank stated that a sharp fall in oil prices, which will likely to have an impact on economic growth was the main concern, and the trade war between the US and China is still a concern for global growth.

Is now the best time to buy Canadian dollars?

Now that Sterling vs Canadian dollar has risen from the mid 1.60s back above 1.70, the question my clients need to ask themselves is will the Canadian dollar continue to devalue or should they take advantage of the spike in the market and buy Canadian dollars now?

Personally I believe this is a spike that is worth taking advantage of, if clients need to purchase Canadian dollars with Sterling. Across the Atlantic, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to persuade MPs to back her Brexit plan.

Reports are suggesting that she could lose the vote on the 11th December by over 100 votes and this could cause major problems for the PM. If she loses by that kind of amount I believe her position comes untenable and we would see a resignation or she will be ousted by her own Party.

A real concern for Brits moving to Canada or Brits that buy Canadian exports is the commentary coming from the Bank of England. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has warned, if the UK come crashing out of the EU without a deal, house prices could crash by a third, GDP could fall 8% and exchange rates could fall 25%.

I’m confident that MPs are taking the Bank of England’s advice on board and therefore I do not fear that the UK will crash out of the EU, nevertheless the uncertainty of the deal not going through on the 11th December is a growing concern.

If you hold Sterling at present and are planning a move to Canada short term, you need to ask yourself the question now, are you prepared to take the gamble and wait until after the vote on the 11th? If she fails to get a deal over the line I believe GBP/CAD rates will fall towards the lower 1.60s and remain there for months to come.

For more information about when might be the best time to buy Canadian dollars or to discuss GBP/CAD rates in more detail feel free to drop me a message using the form below:


How Secure is Sterling’s Meteoric Rise in 2014?

Sterling has clearly risen sharply this year representing an excellent time to buy a foreign currency with the pound. There are however a number of factors to beware of which could easily see the pound drop in the coming months. If you need to make a foreign payment understanding the market and how to go about getting the best deals is central to enhancing your advantage.

Ultimately no one knows what will happen in the future but like weather forecasters, we can look ahead and based on what we know make certain calls as to what may or may not happen. Tomorrow is the Bank of England Interest Rate decision meeting where we could see some movement on GBP rates. No change is expected but the release by nature can be volatile as investors seek to second guess the market. Perhaps more interesting is the ECB decision and Press Conference afterwards at 13.30. Recent Eurozone data has not been particularly encouraging and any comments by Mario on this could cause some EUR movements affecting GBPEUR positioning

If you need to make a currency exchange please email me Jonathan jmw@currencies.co.uk for information to help you get the best deals.

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