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Sterling Euro 6 year high (Tom Holian)

By
Tom Holian
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Sterling Euro exchange rates have hit their highest level in over 6 years today following the removal of the pegged exchange rate between Euro and Swiss Franc.

Indeed, CHFEUR has moved by as much as 25% during today’s trading session- an unprecedented movement between the currency pair.

This has weakened the Euro hugely today sending it to its lowest level against the US Dollar since the introduction of the Euro back in 1999.

Sterling vs the Euro is the highest since 2008 and rates have even tipped past 1.31 on occasion throughout today. The rumours persist that the European Central Bank will intervene and use Quantitative Easing in order to stop inflation from falling.

Also on the horizon is the Greek election due to take place on January 25th so if you want to take advantage of these current highs it may be worth getting something organised over the next few days.

However, even if the ECB does change monetary policy next Thursday it can be strongly argued that the exchange rates are currently being priced in hence the big movement seen ver the last few days.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Sterling exchange rates still remain flat – Retail Sales the next key data release (Daniel Wright)

By
Daniel Wright
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So far this week the Pound has failed to see any large movements in either direction against the major currencies.

The key piece of economic data left to come out over the course of this week will be Retail Sales figures which are due out on Friday morning at 09:30am. Expectations are for a fairly positive release which may give the Pound a solid end to the week as we find out how the retail sector performed during the festive season.

Is the Pound undervalued?

Since the referendum back in June 2016 we have seen various analysts predicting parity against the Euro and some even citing that we may get close to that against the USD but I have always been against that thought.

I still feel that by mentioning the word parity it gets analysts into the media and although there had been and still is a slight risk of Sterling dropping off should brexit negotiations take a huge turn for the worse, my personal opinion is that the Pound is still very cheap to buy and I can see an upturn in Sterling’s fortunes as the year progresses.

I would not be surprised to see the Pound rise against most majors at some point in 2018, as we start to see progress with brexit talks, trade deals discussed/announced and progress in a positive fashion.

There is still the outside (and I mean outside) chance of a second referendum but I personally feel that is doubtful.

In general I do not feel that the economy has dropped off as much as initially expected and I feel that should we start to see positive inroads made then there is no reason why Sterling couldn’t climb back against most majors as the year progresses.

Of course anything can happen in this ever changing market but if I had a foreign currency to bring back into Sterling I would start to consider my options, as we are still close to the best levels we have seen in years to bring various currencies back into the Pound and it would be a shame to miss this current opportunity.

If you have a Sterling exchange to make (either buying or selling) in the coming days, weeks or months and you would like assistance not only on the timing of your transfer but also with achieving the very best rate of exchange too then I can help you personally.

Feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back to you. Having now worked at the same foreign exchange brokerage for over a decade I am well placed to assist you and will be more than happy to help.

Federal Reserve give the go ahead on QE – USD Weakness – Pound generally makes losses against the majority of majors

By
Daniel Wright
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Last night the U.S Federal Reserve (American version of the Bank of England) said full steam ahead for QE in their minutes released at 19:15pm which as regular readers will know led to minor losses for the Dollar against the vast majority of currencies.

Earlier on in the day the Pound lost against most major currencies, due to BOE member David Miles speaking in Dublin – He mentioned that the BOE had to balance the need to bring down inflation against tightening policy too soon mentioning that interest rates would stay on hold for some time yet the input of more QE was possible, this in turn sent the Pound tumbling against pretty much every major currency.

Once again the Pound has taken a few steps forward yet taken quite a few back shortly after and it really does heighten the importance of catching the exchange rate at the right time, when the Pound rose above 1.20 against the Euro a lot of my clients decided to hold out even though 1.20 was a level they had originally set as a rate they would be really happy with to purchase their property or goods from overseas…. they got greedy and now unfortunately have ended up paying a lot more than they would have liked to now their completion date has arrived.

I cannot advise yet I can always give my personal opinion based on market knowledge and it is always easy to get caught up in a vicious circle should rates be shifting against you or moving in your favour, personally I don’t like to gamble and holding out over a period of time is exactly the same as walking down to the betting shop and placing £5000 on a horse…. would you do that???

Should you be buying a property why not book out your rate on a forward contract the second you agree a price and sign documents, you then know that it will cost excactly what you originally agreed to pay for it… get in touch with me by filling in the form on the right for more details on how these work, for a small deposit you can book a rate for anything up to two years in advance…

If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or simply need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates,  just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Sterling Euro still strong (Tom Holian)

By
Tom Holian
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Pound to US Dollar Exchange Rate: What will Brexit do to the GBP/USD rate?

Sterling Euro exchange rates have remained strong during the day following on from Friday’s very positive day which saw the highest level for the currency pair since January 2013.

The comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney suggested that interest rates in the UK could rise ‘sooner than markets currently expect’ and this saw the Pound gain against all major currencies and hit its highest level against the US Dollar in almost 5 years.

Tomorrow morning sees the release of inflation data for the UK and if higher than expected could put more pressure on the BoE to move interest rates.

Eurozone inflation data was poor which helped Sterling to keep its gains from the end of last week.

The US interest rate decision is on Wednesday and I think we could see a reduction of QE to USD35bn per month, which could help to stop further USD weakness and with GBPUSD exchange rates having challenged 1.70 today it will be an interesting next few days.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like a free quote compared to using your bank then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

GBP weakenes to a 4 and a half month low against the USD and rocks against the Euro!!

By
Daniel Wright
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Pound to US Dollar forecast: What could influence the Pound to US Dollar rate this week?

Sterling exchange rates have had an extremely bumpy ride today. The pound fell to over a 4 and a half month low against the USD and witnessed losses down to 1.2370 against the Euro.

The reason for sterling dropping across the board was down to more negative data to come out of the UK economy. UK manufacturing showed that activity shrunk at its fastest pace in three years. With the UK economy already under massive stress showing that we are officially in a recession, this latest data release has put a lot of stress on the exchange rate.

Every time that we see negative data for the UK the markets are interpreting it that we will see the Bank of England initiate more QE and this makes the pound fall even further. After all we all know what the mere mention of QE does for the pound.

If you are a seller of Euros to buy sterling then this morning brought a small glimmer of hope where you could have capitalised on the Euro spike. The bad news is that the pound has marginally recovered and it is unlikely that we will see any further major declines for the pound against the Euro as I feel that the major issues in Europe outweigh those of the UK economy.

Against the USD the pound has had its worst week since November last year. The Bank of England has stated that as issues persist in the Euro zone, the UK economy will be under pressure and sterling will more than likely fall.

We have a very long bank holiday weekend for the golden jubilee. Because the UK will be closed for business the currency market will still be moving around so you may be wise to get any limits in the market prior to close of business. You can email me with your requirement and details at bma@currencies.co.uk so we can discuss the best options that are available to you.

Best rates for selling Euros as All eyes on UK GDP tomorrow. (Ben Amrany)

By
Daniel Wright
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After a disappointing end to last week for the pound against the Euro, we have seen sterling stabilise today trading in the early 1.19’s. After spiking at the best levels since January at over 1.21 a €200,000 Euro purchase now would cost you over £3000 more now compared to the recent high.

The trick now is trying to work out if this trend is going to continue. Last December the pound was well above 1.20 and within 6 weeks sterling had fallen to roughly 1.15. This was a significant loss and caught many clients out.

We had many clients last week who capitalised on the best rates in over 11 months secure the funds they needed on a forward contract. This gave them the peace of mind in knowing how far their funds would go while minimising their risk to the volatile currency market.

If you are considering buying your currency but missed the spike last week and are concerned the pound may continue to fall then feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk

Looking towards tomorrow things could get a lot more interesting when there is a whole batch of data out from the UK and many other economies.

It all starts in the UK at 9.30 with our Trade balance figures then at the same time we have industrial production and manufacturing production figures. Over the last couple of months we have seen a healthy number for production & manufacturing and we are expecting to see a big increase for the year on year figure estimated to be at 2.8%.

The big story of the day though will surely be the GDP estimate by the NIESR. Recently the growth figures for the UK have been excellent with gains now expected to be up at around 0.7/0.8%. Should we see a contraction on this figure then this could be what sends the pound back down below 1.19. If a figure above 0.8% occurs then sterling will surely try and reverse its recent losses against the Euro and push towards 1.20 once again.

The tricky thing with the currency markets is that nothing ever goes to plan which is what makes predicting future rates extremely hard. In theory a strong GDP number will give the pound a boost but with releases from other economies nothing is certain.

Just before our GDP estimate the president of the ECB Mario Draghi has a press conference and his comments on the Eurozone will cause some volatility around midday. Last week Mr Draghi upgraded the Eurozone’s growth forecast and appeared to be cautious of any further easing. His comments put more optimism in the Eurozone and I feel it may now be difficult for the pound to claw back its losses back over 1.20 this week.

If you are selling the Euro then tomorrow afternoon between 12 & 3pm may offer a window of opportunity to achieve slightly better than what is currently available. if Mario Draghi does talk up the Euro then we may see further Euro gains before the UK GDP.  This would represent an attractive level to sell your Euros compared to where we were last week. 

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk

 

New Bank of England Governor Mark Carney – “Sterling to fall 15%” – Pound forecast – Buying pounds – Buying Euros (Steve Eakins)

By
Daniel Wright
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GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

Sterling prices have continue to tumble this week against the euro falling to the lowest level seen for nearly 2 months.  Speculation has also increased about the future of Sterling and the new Bank Of England Governor Mark Carney, the rumours are that he will aim to change the UK economy from a consumer based to an export based.  It seems that the trade deficit that the UK continues to fight against seems to be back in the limelight.  Now to make everything that the UK produces more attractive to foreigners Sterling’s value will have to drop, that is why speculation has been building that more QE will come.  1.20 seems a long way off now as any gains will probably be short lived as various figureheads talk the economy and therefore Sterling down.

It has been forecasted by some that rates may fall by as much as 15%, I personally think that even though a fall is very probable 15% is an effort by some to sell papers. Perhaps a fall of 5% within the next 6 weeks is more realistic. There certainly does seem to be very little for GBPEUR traders to pin their hopes on at the moment which has made the GBPEUR trade one of the most popular this week as people have been limiting their exposure to these potential falls.

People selling the Euro however are in a much better position and generally seem happy to wait for data next week that is expected to weaken the pound and strengthen their situation.

Rates however never move in a straight line, meaning there will be opportunities for the quick movers when spikes do occur.  If you would like any information about when these may be for your situation or want to see how our prices compare please feel free to contact us on the normal number +0044 (0) 1494 787 478 or email me, Steve Eakins, directly at hse@currencies.co.uk. Here we have been helping people move money for over 13 years, simply put if we could not save you money we would not exist.  A quick 2 minute conversation could save you a very reasonable sum. 

What can we expect next for sterling exchange rates?

By
Jonathan Watson
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Trade wars and Brexit continue to be key for GBP and USD

The pound has performed rather well this week after a bad week last week. Despite remaining at lower levels against most currencies we managed to avoid falling further and I really think that is good news! The pound could easily have dropped another couple of per cent if the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data had come in worse than expected. Another concern was the US Federal Reserve Bank, they could easily have said some comments which would have seen the pound lower. No bad news is actually good news in my opinion at the moment for the pound.

I really hope clients looking to buy a foreign currency with the pound in the future will see the rates go higher but it really does seem they will continue to be disappointed. I have had a long line of clients waiting for the pound to rise buying Aussies, Euros and pretty much everything apart from the US Dollar (which has been weakening) since the UK election. The belief is sterling will eventually rise but there is no clear picture when. With any interest rate hike not likely now until 2018 (and then not guaranteed) clients selling the pound to buy a foreign currency should be prepared for further woes.

All in all the economic and political conditions that have led to the downfall for the pound this last year look set to remain and whilst we may see some small improvements expectations for the pound to magically rise look non-existent from my perspective. If you need to transfer an mount of currency from £10,000 above then we can help with some insight into the best strategies and options to make an informed choice of when to buy the currency.

Getting in touch and highlighting your position is completely free of charge and carries no obligation. Please email me Jonathan Watson by using jmw@currencies.co.uk, thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting in the future.

Sterling shaky ahead of U.K unemployment data

By
Daniel Wright
-

The Pound is once again on a knife edge this morning ahead of unemployment data due out this morning. Should we see another negative release for the U.K we could be pushed even closer to the 1.10 level following the surprise fall in inflation yesterday.

Following that release the Pound dropped against most major currencies and even I didn’t expect that! As I have been saying for some time now this market really is not one to play around with and the outlook doesn’t look like it will change for the time being.

Interest rate hikes in the U.K appear once again to be drifting away and with that so does the value of the Pound, this time last year most analysts were predicting three rate hikes in 2010 and Sterling to be way into the 1.20s by the end of last year, it nearly got there, however we have had no rate hikes still and may not for some time and the Pound has taken a huge knock again against most currencies.

The only shining light for those with currency to buy is against the Dollar, we are still at great levels as the States appear to also have lots of problems of their own and are also quite a way off of a rate hike.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned as it makes it more attractive to investors and the markets move on rumour as well as fact so the mere chance of a hike can shift a currencies value quite rapidly.

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Sterling exchange rate forecast – The coming days and what may happen to the Pound (Daniel Wright)

By
Daniel Wright
-

Sterling has had a mixed week against most major currencies, slipping slightly against the Euro and the Dollar yet making minor gains against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar.

As far as U.K economic data goes we had manufacturing data for the U.K which was fairly positive however construction and services data has been reasonably negative so the U.K has not had the best start to the month as far as economic data goes.

We still have some extremely key releases to come out this week with the main focus for anyone looking to buy or sell the Euro being the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference. For the past few months we have seen the Euro generally weaken during ECB rate decisions and the press conference thereafter due to the continued concerns of deflation in the Eurozone and head of the ECB Mario Draghi taking actions to try and counter act this. Recent European inflation figures actually suggested that what is being done at present is currently working as inflation has risen back up a little.

This may well be commented on in the ECB press conference tomorrow so if you have Euros to buy then this has the potential to give the Euro strength – The press conference is due at 13:30pm tomorrow and usually goes on for around an hour with the rates being exceedingly volatile during this period as investors hang off of Mario Draghi’s every word.

Overnight tonight we have the unemployment rate due out in Australia which could lead to sharp movements for the Australian Dollar outside of our trading hours tonight. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to remain at 6.1% so any change to this may bring quite a lot of market movement. With employment figures for New Zealand earlier in the week moving the New Zealand Dollar by two cents overnight it is certainly a release to be aware of.

Overnight on Thursday we also have the RBA Monetary Policy Statement in Australia which will inform us of any future economic policy to be introduced by Australia and any comments in it may lead to another volatile night for the Australian Dollar. Over the past few months Governor Glenn Stevens seems to have changed his mind like the wind on how happy he is about the strength of the Australian Dollar, the main view though being that he feels it is slightly overvalued so more comments like this may weaken the AUD and p[resent a buying opportunity.

Friday is a busy day for all major currencies. First and foremost we have the Trade Balance figures out for the U.K which will show the balance between imports and exports for the U.K economy for September a positive value shows a trade surplus and would be seen as positive for the Pound.

Later in the day we have Non-Farm payroll data from America and this can have an effect on all major currencies. It is a measure of the number of people in Non-Agricultural employment in America, Non Agricultural due to the fact that this can be seasonal. The reason it has an effect on all major currencies is because it can alter global attitude to risk and the figures predicted can quite often be quite a way out, so be sure to have a keen eye on exchange rate movements at 13:30pm on Friday.

Finally over in Canada we have their unemployment figures with expectations of a small rise from 6.8% to 6.9% which may be a negative for the Canadian Dollar.

If you are looking to carry out a currency transfer in the near future it may be prudent to let me know sooner rather than later so that I can keep you fully up to date with market movements. We also have a range of contract types available inclusive of forward contracts, stop loss and limit orders email me on djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information on how these orders work.

Should you find my updates helpful and interesting yet you have not yet registered an account with me then opening an account is completely free, carries no obligation to trade and puts you in the position to book out a rate as and when you wish. If you are currently using another broker or your bank then it is well worth getting in contact  with me for a comparison as I would be highly surprised if I cannot save you money over your current currency option. All you need to do is email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief explanation and a contact number and i will be more than happy to contact you personally.

 

 

 

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