Interest rate decision in the U.K today – Key for Sterling Will we see weakness or strength? My forecast

Today brings the BOE interest rate decision at 12:00pm and could be extremely important news for Sterling going forward, especially if we do see a surprise rate hike (which personally I think there is around a 25% chance of seeing)

The more likely outcome is that rates remain on hold once again and you may see minimal Sterlnig weakness following this due to a minority of investors taking a punt in advance that rates may go up, with the markets moving on rumour as well as fact this could well lead to Sterling weakness.

An interest rate decision is in general seen as positive for the currency concerned and a cut negative, however this is not always set in stone as a hike in the U.K could in the medium term cause major problems as many mortgage payments will rise and this could lead to further economic troubles further down the line.

In short, I think Sterling will actually have a reasonably positive day as early morning data was slightly better than expected, and even though it may cause probles later on, a hike in rate will cause some short term rapid Sterling strength.

Feel free to pop back on here later for the latest.

If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Pound sterling exchange rates at multi month and indeed year highs against certain currencies

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

The Pound has put a really good shift in over the past few week leading to Sterling hitting great levels against most major currencies.

The most notable are as follows:

Highest since November 2011 against the Canadian Dollar

Four year high against the South African Rand

Highest in three years against the Australian Dollar

Close to trading levels of 2+ against the New Zealand Dollar

If you have any of these currencies to buy for a property purchase, personal transfer, business transaction or any other reason then it is well worth getting in touch with me directly.

Feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like not only my opinion on where the markets may head next but also award winning rates of exchange and customer service for any transfers over £2000.

Pound slides throughout Monday and Tuesday

This weekend I wrote an article outlining the reason why sterling strengthened last week. To summarise UK inflation rose to 2.9% and the Bank of England announced they could raise interest rates as early as November. Within the same article I suggested that the pound would have a poor start to the week due to investors selling off their positions because of improved exchange rates. My predictions so far this week have come true.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May is set to deliver her Brexit speech in Florence on Friday and I expect this event could dictate the strength of sterling in the weeks to come. With EU Parliament negotiator Guy Verhofstadt insisting Theresa May has an “important intervention” to make, I have this feeling that the Prime Minister could provide further strength for the pound.

There are two other key economic event this week to look out for that will have a major impact on currency exchange rates and they are the US interest rate decision Wednesday evening and the German election over the weekend. Depending on the Federal Reserves stance in regards to interest rates and if Angela Merkel is re elected as Chancellor will influence the flows between the Euro and US dollar which will consequently have an impact on sterling exchange rates.

If you are reading this website in order to find out information in regards to buying or selling the pound I can help you achieve the best exchange rates on the market whilst keeping you up to date with economic information.

It’s important to analyse both currencies that you will be trading therefore I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** IF YOU ARE ALREADY USING A BROKERAGE TO BUY YOUR CURRENCY IT WILL TAKE TWO MINUTES TO EMAIL FOR A COMPARISON AND I AM CONFIDENT I WILL BEAT ANY PRICE YOU ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING  **

 

Pound Sterling Forecast

Pound to US Dollar forecast Bets increase on 50 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed What could happen to GBPUSD?

Sterling remains supported but the more recent data for February is as expected looking worse than expected. Small declines in Construction and Services output are perhaps potentially indicative more of the recent bad weather than any likely declines in the pace of growth in the UK economy although few would doubt that the strong growth spurts witnessed earlier this year seem to have receded for the time being.

Today’s Interest rate decision does not appear to hold too much in store, I am expecting more in the ECB (European Central Bank) statement. Essentially some slightly better news for the Eurozone that Inflation is rising last week, will have helped to keep the lid on further action for the ECB. The pound to euro exchange rate may fall slightly following the statement.

All in all the pound is performing very well and there is an expectation the pound will remain supported. The chance of the pound making significant further gains in the short term do however look limited so if you are keen to look at buying a foreign currency with the pound I suggest moving sooner.

If you are planning a transaction and wish to achieve a better exchange rate and find out about a better service please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with me Jonathan.

GBP/EUR and GBP/USD at net loss so far today from UK inflation hearings (Joshua Privett)

Pound to US Dollar forecast Bets increase on 50 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed What could happen to GBPUSD?

The event which has been delayed for two weeks and has been a worry for those looking to exchange their Sterling for an alternative currency is taking place as I type this article. GBP/EUR and GBP/USD rates have already moved in a downward trajectory over the first 15 minutes of the UK’s inflation report hearings held by the Treasury Committee.

However, not by as much as initially expected. The reason I have decided to type out my expectations now is that it is all too clear that these hearings are lacking any substance.

Recently Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, noted that the previous estimates of an interest rate hike in the UK economy for Spring 2016 were now likely to be postponed for a year – his reasoning was that the UK’s already record low inflation levels were expected to get worse before they got better. Sterling weakened heavily on the news with GBP/EUR dropping over 2 cents as an example.

These hearings were called to ascertian how the UK has got itself into this position and what can be done at this point. Yet they were delayed over two consecutive weeks, heightening market anticipation as to what poor news may be revealed from the hearings.

So far I have heard discussions of bank regulations and capital restrictions which, while important, have been beaten to death since the financial crisis and have little to do with combatting negative inflation.

They are avoiding the issue, likely because they have few answers. Inflation is a reflection of price change, and falling prices are a result of low oil prices and reduced demand overseas for our goods, which are difficult for the Bank of Engand itself to control.

Sterling is weakening at this lack of confidence in the Bank of England. But many, including myself, were expecting worse should the details and forecasts of how poor inflation could possibly reach were to be discussed in the open. GBP/EUR has moved down a full cent from the day high and low, and GBP/USD by half a cent.

North American markets will open soon and we will likely see similar falls on GBP/EUR and GBP/USD continuing into the afternoon.

Events today have softened the blow to Euro buyers who could not secure their currency yesterday when rates were above 1.42. 

If you have Euros or US Dollars to buy I strongly suggest contacting me on 01494 787 478 and asking the reception for Joshua to discuss how these current buying rates can be fixed to avoid future falls this afternoon. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere and a comparison could save you thousands depending on the volume of your transfer. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Major volatility expected for sterling exchange rates this week (Dayle Littlejohn)

This week arguably is the most important week for sterling exchange rates so far in 2018. UK inflation released Tuesday morning and average wage growth released Wednesday morning has the potential to influence monetary policy moving forward and therefore the interest rate decision which will be released Thursday afternoon.

UK inflation over the last 12 month has outpaced average earnings, which has put a strain on consumer spending. This has been a concern for the Bank of England, however recent forecasts are suggesting that throughout the year inflation numbers should fall slightly and average earnings should rise. Inflation remaining at 3% and a slight rise in wage growth this week should benefit the pound.

In regards to interest rates, the Bank of England gave a hawkish statement last month and many forecasters believe the Bank of England will hike interest rates in May. If we receive similar commentary on Thursday, I expect the pound to strengthen making foreign currency cheaper to buy.

For people that are planning a foreign currency purchase in the upcoming months, I expect resistance levels could be tested this week for many sterling currency pairs. My strategy would be to trade if your currency pair reaches current resistance levels.

For people that have no experience within the currency markets its important to understand that support and resistance levels are tools that every currency traders uses as technical analysis. Therefore if you are buying a property abroad, have a business that has FX exposure or just need to make a one off transfer understanding support and resistance levels is important. For more information feel free to email drl@currencies.co.uk.

To finish the week, EU officials are going to meet for the EU summit and Brexit will be a main talking point. In recent weeks the EU have blamed the UK for the progression that has been made since the start of 2018. Investors will watch closely as the EU officials could announce whether the UK have permission to start the trade talks early April.

If the EU confirm that trade talks will or will not begin this could have the potential to increase or decrease the value of sterling by a couple of percent. For anyone that is buying or selling sterling I would recommend outlining your position to me, and together we will form a strategy that works for you. My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk.

Sterling Exchange Rates Before Bank of England Meeting (James Lovick)

Brexit no deal worries still holding Sterling back against Euro

The pound may see a volatile day after the releases of the latest Bank of England interest rate decision this afternoon. Although expectation is for no change in interest rates today there is a growing feeling that the central bank may begin to indicate a tighter policy going forward. Any indications from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that there will be an interest rate rise later this year could see the pound rally against most of the major currencies including the Euro and US dollar.

The detail will revolve around what the forecasts for inflation look like. Any increase in projections that remain above 3% could force the Bank of England to take action and raise interest rates. There has been an expectation that the first hike would come in the Autumn of 2018 although this could be brought forward to the first half of this year. Any change like this is likely to see a boost for the pound. Clients looking to buy Euros or buy US dollars may want to position themselves ready for a potential spike higher today. The pound has slipped from the recent highs against the Euro and US dollar over the last two weeks although any change in strategy from the Bank of England today could see a boost for sterling exchange rates.

Brexit negotiations which have resumed this week are also playing a considerable role for the price of sterling. With British government cabinet meetings taking place this week to devise a final strategy with Brexit there are likely to be more developments in the media which may also direct the price of sterling.

The Euro may alos begin to see a boost after German Chancellor Angela Merkel has finally agreed the terms of a second Grand Coalition with the Social Democrats. Finally having some political stability in the Eurozone’s powerhouse is likely to help reinforce both the Eurozone and the single currency.

To discuss your requirement and how we can help to time the conversion at the best rates of exchange then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Currency Market Alert – Are you ready for the next rate movements?

tariffs and jobs data to impact Pound to Dollar rates

Recently sterling has come back under pressure amid signs the government’s policies and strategies are not working. Debt is in fact going up and the Chancellor’s Spending Review yesterday has shed further light on the less than certain times ahead for the UK. Sticking to his guns could prove very costly for the UK and the Chancellor, although the pessimist in me would suggest a weaker pound is just what he wants!

It is undeniable we are at important crossroads on many currency pairs and many key decisions soon will determine which direction we head next. Will Mark Carney wave a magic wand over the UK? Will the US Federal Reserve need to keep the QE taps on? Will the ECB and RBA cut their interest rates? We shall know very soon…

As we approach the end of the month and quarter, we could see large unexpected swings on the markets as positions are closed off. If you have a transaction soon or in the next few weeks and months to consider, being prepared for the exchange is the best way to ensure you don’t miss out and can capitalise on swings in your favour.

Rates often move quickly and unexpectedly so to trade, register your interest or be kept informed please contact me as follows:

 Int 0044 1494 787 478 – ask to speak to me Jonathan or 
jmw@currencies.co.uk

Market Overview
GBP – The pound’s recent run of form has been hampered in recent days despite generally better data this month. This is because the prospect of Mark Carney coming in and tinkering seems to point to further GBP weakness. The GBP rally over the last couple of months has peaked and the old worries about UK debt and growth are firmly back on the agenda.

With Osborne committed to austerity surely the only way the economy can feasibly grow would appear to be a further devaluing of the pound. This does not mean sterling will crash, but that it will remain very vulnerable and likely to tick down a cent or two. In the last four or five years we have been here so many times and I am not convinced the economy is out of ‘intensive care’ as the Chancellor suggests..

I think therefore if you are holding on for significant improvements with the pound you could be disappointed. There is clearly a chance we could see sterling spike but major improvements will be limited for the reasons above. To ensure you maximise any exchanges, you can highlight your transfer to me and I can ensure you are kept informed whatever happens.

Today’s UK GDP revision was old news but not good news for the pound. Buying on any spikes does seem to be the wisest move in this uncertain environment.

EURO – Despite the continued pressure on some Eurozone economies, the Euro remains buoyant. The confidence injected into markets due to Mario Draghi’s comments last year are still carrying weight and preventing a Euro sell off.

The bad news is well and truly out in the market and slightly improving economic data could be pointing toward further Euro gains in the future. There is the chance the ECB lower interest rates but as seen at the last decision this actually strengthened the Euro. Any expectations that the Euro will suddenly weaken to last year’s levels seem very distant, more likely are further gains as the ECB seeks to contain the problems.

Next week sees the release of many new releases for the Eurozone which may affect short term sentiments. If you are considering a Euro deal and would like a certain level, please let me know and I can keep an eye on it for you.

USD All eyes will remain on US data to see if they will be stopping QE anytime soon. Yesterday we had US GDP which had shown a surprise fall in US GDP. The data is however for Q1 so is really seen as old news, nevertheless GBPUSD has dropped today with the poor pound.

The USD has definitely been the main beneficiary of signs of an improved US economy. Since the Chinese economy is slowing alongside Europe, I would question if the US can keep growing with no further QE. I think it unlikely we will in this current market see the USD gain as much as we saw earlier in the year as a result. If you need to sell USD now or in the future you are looking at a very good opportunity currently. To learn how to take advantage at the best rates please contact me or read on.

AUD  The Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate decision and statement next week is key and further AUD losses should be expected. AUD sellers are looking at a good opportunity currently with a report Iron Ore exports are due to increase in Australia in the next year.

NZD  Remaining above 2 is proving a tough nut to crack and current levels should depending on the prevailing data, not be taken for granted.

Have I missed your currency pair or would you like to know more? Please contact me and I can explain the current situation and where rates could be headed!

Jonathan Watson
jmw@currencies.co.uk
00 44 1494 787 478

The majority of our business is generated via referrals and recommendations. If you feel comfortable doing so, we would greatly appreciate you passing on details to any friends or colleagues who may be in need of any foreign exchange services. Please ensure they speak to me directly for the best rates and service… Thank you!

Important UK data releases this morning – Update

BoE Minutes – Adam Posen changed his previous vote of calling for QE to no call for QE.

Unemployment – Rate has dropped to 8.3%.

Both outcomes have given the pound a lift. If you are looking to trade and would like to be kept up to date with all the important information moving the rate speak to us today.

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling exchange rates rocky ahead of election (Daniel Wright)

Pound to US Dollar forecast Bets increase on 50 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed What could happen to GBPUSD?

The Pound has been that little bit more volatile than usual in the past week or so as investors and speculators heads now turn towards the upcoming election on 8th June.

As an election approaches you tend to find a currency will get a little nervy and this is exactly what we are witnessing with the Pound at present.

Sterling is moving every time a new poll is released and the latest set of polls are suggesting that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party are gathering momentum and clawing back ground on a daily basis.

The reason this is leading to the Pound losing value is mainly due to the fact that this could make brexit talks that little more complicated to carry out for the Government, especially if we end this election with a hung Parliament.

Theresa May initially called the election with the view that she had a great chance of taking a large majority, this would have made her life that little bit easier when trying to push through brexit plans.

All this is currently causing is a great deal of uncertainty and for those that are regular readers you will be fully aware that uncertainty is generally a very bad thing to have for a currency, and with brexit, a pending election and a slightly stuttering economy the U.K is rife with uncertainty which is starting to weigh down on the Pound.

My personal opinion is that we will see Sterling make a fight back in the coming weeks, I have no Political allegiances personally, however I feel that the Conservative party are further ahead than is being suggested and that they will win with a majority. This should then give Sterling exchange rates a good solid boost shortly afterwards, but do beware that over the past year or two we have seen many surprises pop up, so this is certainly not set in stone!

If you have a currency exchange to make involving buying or selling the Pound then what is important is that you have an experienced, proactive and helpful broker on your side. Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we do not only offer up to date market information but all of our writers also work for one of the largest brokers in the U.K.

Even if you are already in contact with  another broker or have a premier account with your bank it would be rare that we cannot get you a better rate, along with helping you with the timing of your transfer.

For a free, no obligation discussion or quote feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site by email on djw@currencies.co.uk or by calling 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours. We can help people from all over the globe and will be more than happy to contact you personally.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Recent Posts