How will the Autumn Statement impact pound sterling exchange rates?

GBP EUR Exchange Rate: The Week Ahead August 15th

Philip Hammond has no easy task ahead this week as he sets out his plans for the UK economy moving forward. With Brexit still dominating politics and economics there is lots of pressure on the Chancellor to outline an economic plan of Britain that will match the commitments of the new Prime Minister and her colleagues. As always there have been a few leaks in the press over the weekend so let us look at these and work out how it will affect the economy and the pound moving forward.

You don’t have to travel too far in the UK to be reminded of the problems with UK roads. Report suggest over £1bn worth of investment in UK roads with a new expressway between Oxford and Cambridge. Infrastructure spending is to be much welcomed as it will increase efficiency of travel around the UK which will only help business. This should be good for the pound in many respects since it will help the UK economy longer term.

There is a flipside in that government borrowing is at record highs and further borrowing goes against the grain of what previous Tory administrations worked hard to (unsuccessfully) establish. If you look to the last election the Tories gained power on economic prowess promising not to tip the country into massive debts which of course they still did. If the current administration now spends lots it could risk upsetting the financial markets that so strongly backed the Tories last year.

Times have of course changed and given the backdrop of Brexit and a mood that tough austerity just isn’t necessary we could see more leeway from markets. On the whole I would expect the Autumn statement to be cautiously seen as sterling positive but any clients looking to buy or sell this week should be preparing their exchange today to limit their exposure and be preparing for the date.

If you are considering an exchange and wish to talk to a specialist about the relevant issues and ins and outs of transferring money at the very best rates of exchange please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing [email protected] or please fill in the form below.

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Trump to cause big swings on the Currency Market (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR

Uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations is the cause for the weak pound

The key factor in any GBP/EUR trade is Brexit and how trade negotiations will pan out.  The uncertainty surrounding trade deals is the fundamental reason behind Sterling weakness and I do feel the pound is currently undervalued. Unfortunately it was announced yesterday there would be no deal between Britain and the EU without EU parliament consent which could be problematic and elongate the process.

If we look over recent events it seems that when some element of certainty is restored we see Sterling rally as demonstrated by Theresa May’s hard Brexit speech, despite a hard Brexit being deemed as detrimental to the UK economy short-medium term.

Today we will see debate from parliament over the recent exit bill, which has caused controversy due to it’s rather brief size at just 130 words. It is going to be difficult due to it’s make up with little to go on other than time scale. If there are any amendments to the bill this will have bearing on GBP/EUR.

This morning will see Eurozone GDP followed by the head of the European Central Bank’s speech, Mario Draghi. GDP data will be watched keenly by traders as to whether Brexit is having an effect on the health of business within the Eurozone. Draghi’s speech is also worth listening to, if he gives any indication as to monetary policy going forward expect traders to have their fingers on the button.

GBP/USD

Trump sacks Attorney General – “My way or the high way”

Sally Yates has been sacked following her questioning of Trump’s controversial immigration plan to ban refugees from high risk countries entering the US for ninety days. This is a display of his rash decision making and I do not think this bodes well for the US dollar. Despite forward guidance from the Fed indicating there could be as many three rate hikes this year I think Trump could scupper their plans. A potential trade tariff for the Chinese, a wall, and a Muslim ban could hinder the Fed’s plans.

Nonfarm pay rolls

Nonfarm payrolls takes place on the first Friday of every month and historically causes high levels of volatility on the exchange. It is a measure of employment minus agriculture in the US and is key indicator as to the health of the US economy. It is extremely difficult to predict so be wary of trading during this release.

GBP/AUD – Trump to have influence on Australian Dollar

Trump could have a significant bearing on which way GBP/AUD is headed, if trade tariffs are placed on the Chinese this will have major implications on Australia due to Australia’s heavy reliance on the Chinese. If more rate hikes do materialise in the US it will become much more appealing to investors to choose the US dollar over the Australian Dollar in view of more safety and higher returns than previously available. Also keep in mind Australia is very close to losing it’s triple AAA rating.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to help. I specialise in property transfers, I can ensure you receive the most competitive rates (which I am prepared to demonstrate against any competitor) and I will also make sure the transfer goes through as smoothly as possible, taking the stress away from your purchase. You can trade in confidence knowing you are working with a broker from Foreign Currency Direct a firm in business for over sixteen years. Give me a brief idea of your requirement along with your time scale and I will endeavour to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to being of assistance.

I can be contacted at [email protected].

Daniel Johnson

Sterling to lose value against all major currenies tomorrow morning. (Dayle Littlejohn)

Tomorrow at 9.30am is the latest retail sales figures for the UK. With an expected 2.3% drop from last months figure we are expecting to see the pounds purchasing power dented.

Later in the afternoon the European Central Bank are set to release their policy meeting  accounts. If the ECB continue to take a dovish tone we could see sterling make back possible losses from the mornings trading period.

To finish the week the UK are set to release their latest Public Sector Net Borrowing numbers. This release is set to impact sterling exchange rates therefore talking to an experience broker about a limit order and stop loss is wise.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Dayle Littlejohn [email protected].

Pound to Dollar forecast: Spain could veto Brexit Deal

Pound to Dollar Rate Supported by UK GDP Data

Pound to Dollar forecast: Brexit developments key for GBP/USD rate

Sterling gained ground yesterday against the majority of major currencies. Theresa May remains stubborn in her stance and intends to stay in her position as Prime Minister and see through the Brexit process. She is still adamant that a Brexit deal can be agreed.

President of the European Council, Donald Tusk has announced that the EU Commission has informed him that a draft deal had been agreed at a negotiator’s level and agreed in principle at a political level. It is still however subject to the endorsement of its leaders.

The draft still has to be given the “Okay” by the leaders of each individual EU state at Sunday’s emergency EU summit in Brussels. Then perhaps what is an even bigger challenge follows, getting the draft through the UK Parliament. Many MPs have been vocal about their disagreement with the current Brexit deal and this has resulted in much Pound to Dollar exchange rate volatility.

Spain could veto deal over Gibraltar concerns

On Sunday we could see problems due to Spain’s unhappiness in regards to Gibraltar. Spain has stated they will veto any Brexit deal if there are not assurances over future negotiations surrounding Gibraltar. It seems Theresa May may have a real job on her hands to get the deal through on Sunday, which leaves the Pound extremely vulnerable short term.

WTO to investigate Donald Trump’s Trade Tariffs

President Trump’s administration has engaged in multiple trade wars since his appointment and the US Dollar has benefitted as a result. There has been rumours circulating however that the World Trade Organisation (WTO) is prepared to look into complaints from a number of nations regarding Trump’s tariffs on aluminium and steel.

The Dispute Settlement Body (DSB), a section of the WTO is due to hear cases from China, the EU, Canada, Norway, Mexico Turkey and Russia. Each case will be reviewed separately due to the US apposing a single panel hearing.

This could result in US Dollar weakness if the tariffs are labelled unfair. Be aware however that Brexit will be the key market mover on Pound to Dollar rate. At present I feel there is potential for further Sterling weakness.

If you have a large currency transfer to perform in the coming days, weeks or months then I will be happy to speak to you directly as I will be willing to help you with trying to time a transaction and getting you the best possible rate when you do come to trade. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a significant difference so for the sake of taking a few minutes to contact me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds.

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Wow – We have a very buy week ahead for Sterling exchange rates – Interest rate decisions galore rounded off with Non-farm payroll data from the States to round things off

Pound to Dollar Rate Supported by UK GDP Data

Following an extremely busy start to the year this week shouldn’t fail to keep the market volatility going…. We have interest rate decisions from Australia, Japan, Canada, UK and Europe not to mention Non-Farm payroll data from the U.S on Friday afternoon.

We do not expect any changes to Interest rates around the globe however comments and voting regarding economic  may well be key for where we se exchange rate head throughout the week.

There are many other data releases inclusive of Australian GDP and European inflation data that can also lead to big swings in exchange rates so if you have a pending currency transfer to make it is key you have an experienced and proactive currency broker on your side.

This is where we can come in and help you, not only has the company we work for won numerous awards for exchange rates in national newspapers but we have also won a National business award for out customer service.

When you call us you get straight through to a real trader and you deal with that trader throughout the entire process, we don’t do call centers and  we pride ourselves on just one point of contact, meaning the person you deal with knows your situation inside out.

If you are using a broker or your bank and you aren’t getting the attention you feel you should be surrounding your currency transfer, or you feel you may be able to get a better rate of exchange than you are currently receiving then please do feel free to get in touch with us for a direct comparison.  You can email me (Daniel Wright) the creator and owner of this site directly and I will deal with you personally if you so wish [email protected] or fill in the enquiry form on this page and one of our experienced currency brokers will call you straight back.

Personally I feel unless the Bank of England throw a spanner into the works the Pound may have a week of recovery however in this current market  and with the releases due out this week it is extremely hard to know exactly what may happen next, if you want to be kept fully up to date either keep checking back on this site or email me with your contact number and a brief description of your requirements as above.

Pound Sterling to continue gains against the Dollar and to drop against the Euro – What about the Rand? Lots going on at present!

GBP USD Exchange Rate: The Week Ahead April 18th

The Pound has had a mixed bag in terms of performance against other majors of late and many clients I speak to are wondering just where the markets may head next… It is such a hard one to call at present as we have so much gonig on worldwide.

The intro of QE3 for the States and the mention of no rise in interest rates until at least mid 2015 coupled with the Euro gaining a huge amount of confidence has led to a huge amount of weakness for the Dollar – Last week in fact was the worst the Dollar has performed in one single week for 8 months!

The riskier currencies have also made a fight back thanks to global confidence being higher, apart from the South African Rand that is, which due to interest rate cuts and the major mining and political problems over there have led to a battering for the strength of ZAR in recent weeks.

Personally I think at some point once again confidence in European problems will drop like a stone and we will see a big reversal, the problem is this may be weeks or it may be months so if you have a pending property purchase to make in Europe it may be prudent to look at getting serious with booking your rate of exchange by either hedging your bets and securing half of the currency you need or by locking in to a forward contract.

We have the Bank Of England minutes due out on Wednesday morning which could be the kick start to further Sterling losses so that is one release to be extremely wary of.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer involving any major currency and would like to discus your options with me personally I will be more than happy to speak with you directly, just feel free to email me [email protected] with some details and a contact number and I shall get in touch, with years of market knowledge, awards for our exchange rates and indeed our customer service it could be an email that saves you thousands of Pounds.

Pound Sterling sees a slight lift ahead of U.K general election – What will the next 48 hours bring? (Daniel Wright)

Pound Sterling Forecast – GBP to Weaken in the Coming Weeks?

When Prime Minister Theresa May announced the election we saw Sterling exchange rates receive quite a boost as it did look like a Conservative victory was a formality, most likely by a majority. This would have led to an easier path for her in Brexit negotiations. What we have witnessed in the past few weeks is a change in momentum, polls are indicating that Labour are gaining seats and uncertainty has been creeping into the minds of investors and speculators, leading to a sell off of the Pound and the rates dropping almost on a daily basis.

Political uncertainty and economic stability are two of the key factors that will impact the value of a currency, and at present with the election and Brexit talks we are currently witnessing both.

There are a few key scenarios that we need to watch out for towards the end of this week, one thing we need to be aware of is that no particular result is guaranteed to move the rate in a certain direction, the markets will quite often swim against the tide, but this is how I feel each result may pan out in terms of currency movements.

Conservative Majority: This would more than likely give Sterling a boost and lead to a little strength for the Pound. I believe this to be the case due to the Sterling strength we saw when the election was originally announced.

Hung Parliament: Again bringing further uncertainty for the U.K this is the result anyone looking to buy foreign currency in the near future will probably want to avoid, however last time we saw a hung parliament we did see a short period of weakness and then, the Pound did regain value and push up once we had certainty on what the plans were and had a settled coalition in place. What makes this scenario a little different is there are no obvious resolutions so we may see further uncertainty in the coming weeks and further weakness for Sterling exchange rates should this happen.

Labour Majority: This is by far the most unlikely result but should we see this happen it would bring huge change and I would expect to see a drop in the value of the Pound should this occur.

All in all we have another week where economic data remains in the shadows and political certainty is in the spotlight.

At the time of writing this the odds of a hung Parliament are only at 3-1, where as one days prior to the referendum the odds were at 8-1 for the U.K to vote to leave, and we all know what happened there!

Essentially the key to ensuring that you maximise any opportunities in these market conditions is communication, if you let us know what you are looking to exchange or what rate you would like to achieve, we can keep you fully up to speed with the latest action and inform you should a big opportunity arise for you.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast all of our writers work for one of the largest brokerages in the country and we pride ourselves on keeping people up to date with the very latest action on the market, helping them to maximise their money.

If you feel we may be of help to you then it is well worth contacting me directly and I will add you to my list clients and not only get you the very best exchange rate out there but also help you with award winning customer service too.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) on [email protected] with a description of your needs and I will be happy to contact you to discuss the various options available to you and to explain exactly how our service works. During the referendum we saved clients thousands of pounds by calling them the second the market moved and we would be delighted to assist you too.

Selling Euros? Sterling falls on the back of poor industrial production figures.

The pound has had an extremely volatile couple of days. Yesterday sterling exchange rates were boosted to a week high against the Euro and USD after positive services figures hit the market in the morning. A PMI figure of more than 50 indicates expansion of purchasing activity, meaning this could be a sign of further economic recovery.

But before we all get to exited regarding the above this morning the pound has losses around 0.5% against most majors. This was due to a surprise fall in industrial production for February. British industrial output was down by 1.2% in February, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed.

This has now left us believing that a rate hike this week by the Bank of England is a very long shot and the pound has suffered on the back of it.

With two extremely different days for the pound it will be interesting to see what happens on Thursday with teh interest rate decision. I personally feel that we could see sterling trading in the early 1.13’s or worse against the Euro if the ECB raise interest rates and to hover between 1.6150-1.6350 over the next 3-4 days against the greenback.

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Osborne to confirm Budget Surplus (Daniel Johnson)

The Chancellor will today confirm a law to add a buffer for National Debt. With our national debt unsustainably high and with the uncertainty about what the world economy has in store, he will now aim to fix the roof while the “sun is shining”.

A wise move, if a little predictable and the timing I deem to be more of a political move than anything else.

We have seen Sterling strengthen over the Euro this morning and current trading levels are looking very favorable. I believe Sterling is at present overvalued an any form of agreement with Greece and its debtors will result in Sterling dropping considerably in value. It may be wise not to procrastinate as holding on for an extra buck could prove costly.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me at [email protected] or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

Greek elections and EURO update

As many readers will be aware the Greek election took place yesterday evening and the votes have now been counted. It would seem that the party shouting for a stop to austerity, which are the risk for most, have missed their chance. There is still no outstanding winner so a coalition will need to be made in the coming week but it has definitely elevated the short term concern of the euro failing.  Initially this helped the euro gain sharply first thing but the markets seem to have now turned their backs and the gains seen have been lost. Markets seem to still be hugely concerned about the euro but the focus has changed to the other side of Europe, i.e. Spain. 

On the bond markets costs still are climbing across Europe ansd this morning costs pushed up for Spain, Italy and surprisingly Germany. Spain is still over 7%, Italy over 6% and Germany over 1.5%.  (Check out this blog for more information as to why this is so important.) It shows to me that the markets are still worried and that more needs to be done by the ECB to introduce some confidence.  This is a story that will continue to run so if you need funds in the next few weeks make sure you are a regular reader.

 In other news, we have the following data releases. (To find out why this changes the market feel free to re-read the following blog.)

 Tuesday

  • G20 meeting – Staring tomorrow – Grade 3 – Could change things dramatically
  • 9:30 UK Consumer figures – Grade 2 – Expected to fall – Sterling weakens expected

 Wednesday

  • 9:30 UK Bank of England Minutes – Grade 2 – Concern as could surprise the market with a wild reaction
  • 9:30 UK unemployment – Grade 2 – Expected to climb – Sterling weakness expected

Thursday

  • 9:00 European Purchase Management figures – Grade 2 –  Expected to fall – Euro weakens expected
  • 9:30 UK Retails Sales – Grade 3 – Forecasts not announced yet – come back on Wednesday or call 01494 787 478 for more info

 With all this in mind I personally would expect GBPEUR to continue to be very volatile, especially with the G20 taking place this week.

If you have been waiting for the elusive 1.25 to return I would imagine you are walking on a tight rope. To get up to date information on your situation from a currency expect feel free to contact us using the form on the page, calling directly on 01494 787478 or emailing me at [email protected]

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