Bank of England Decision causes big losses for Sterling Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

Opinion Poll Data Gives Pound a Boost

Sterling has really suffered this week and the negative movements were highlighted yesterday with the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. The 9 members of the MPC have all chosen to keep rates on hold which is a change from the 8-1 vote previously.

Ian McCafferty has changed his mind which to me is not that much of a surprise but this has certainly has a negative impact on Sterling vs Euro.

The UK Quarterly Inflation Report was also published yesterday which caused losses for Sterling compared to both Euro and US Dollar.

The Bank of England has changed both its growth and inflation forecasts and with inflation not expected to hit 2% until 2018 this means we might not see interest rates rise until then either.

The lack of an interest rate rise and the looming fears of a Brexit has caused real problems for Sterling exchange rates and whilst the uncertainty of the EU talks are ongoing I think this will weigh heavily on the Pound.

UK Average Earnings were downgraded from 3.75% to 3% for 2016 and although higher than current inflation levels this is concerning for the UK economy as any downgrade is never positive.

We end the week with US Non-Farm Payroll data this afternoon as well as US unemployment data and if you’re considering a transfer involving Sterling and US Dollars then it is worth keeping your eye out for this data release.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively call me directly on 01494-725353 and ask for Tom Holian when calling.

 

 

Brexit updates devalue the pound

This morning the EU released their draft treaty, and to the disappointment of UK Prime Minister Theresa May the Europeans have announced that Northern Ireland could remain part of the customs union, which puts a spanner in the works for the UK PM.

Mrs May has already made it clear that Brexit will not split up the UK, therefore this news is problematic and that’s why the pound has lost value throughout the day against all of the major currencies.

Tomorrow the Conservative party will meet to discuss Brexit, and some Tory MPs have warned the PM that they wont allow her to water down Brexit in a bid to keep the Europeans happy and therefore pave way for trade talks.

Nevertheless, I can’t see any Conservative MPs going against the PM, therefore her speech on Friday should go well and I believe she will state the Conservative party are united, regardless of the current problems they face.

For clients that are buying or selling the pound in the upcoming months the next 2 days could have a major influence on the exchange rate that you will receive and putting a plan together now could help to maximise your returns.

The currency company I work for saves clients money against high street bank and other brokerages. If you are buying or selling property abroad and have been refereed a certain brokerage, it does not necessarily mean that you are receiving the best rates therefore you should get a second quote.

Feel free to email with the exact amounts, timescales and I will give you an idea of how much it would cost now and my strategy going forward. A useful contract at the moment is a limit order which means we target a rate for you. The best email to reach me on is drl@currencies.co.uk.

In other news the UK release their latest mortgage approvals numbers tomorrow morning which give a good indication of the strength of the housing market. A slight rise is expected which could give a small boost to the pound. However Markit Manufacturing numbers are released at the same time and are set for a slight fall. The data releases could counter act one another.

All eyes on the Bank of England minutes at 09:30am this morning… what was the split on QE? Any more in favour of a rate hike? Sterling forecast for 17th November

Following on from the previous post comments from the Irish PM didn’t have a major effect on the markets – He insisted that Ireland do not need to be bailed out, however we heard a similar thing from Greece not long before they were actually bailed out so watch this space, personally as I have been saying for a while i beleive it is only a matter of time before the euro Zone has major problems on its hands and the Euro suffers off of the back of this.

This morning we have the Bank of England minutes due at 09:30am which could lead to major Sterling movements – Should the votye on QE at the last interest rate decision meetin have been tight then one would expect Sterling to lose ground as it suggests potential QE in the near future, the opposite and we may see strength… my forecast is that we will see strength for once off of the back of the latest interest rate decision as I cannot see any QE happening for December and due to the fact our GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures came out much more positive than expected I would imagine QE may be put to one side for the time being.

If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or simply need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly. Alternatively, if you would like assistance in finding your dream home abroad then feel free to visit www.overseaspropertysearcher.com and let one of our property experts make the hunt much easier for you.

Will the pound continue to rise in April?

Pound to Euro Outlook Are GBPEUR exchange rates likely to fall further?

Sterling has been rising against most currencies as the progress on Brexit and the possibility of interest rate hikes in May and perhaps further ahead help to boost confidence. I do feel there is a risk now however that in the absence of any fresh new exciting news to help boost further these positive sentiments, sterling could drop.

The currency markets do not always reflect reality and often we can see the market rising and falling quickly as confidence rises and falls. At the moment confidence is quite high for the pound but it is based on the future good news on Brexit and also interest rates. Any signs that the UK economy is not performing quite as well as is hoped, or that Brexit is hitting fresh snags would easily see this current optimism evaporate.

The main news to move the rates in April is economic data as we have no scheduled Bank of England meetings, nor any EU Summits from which we would expect a major shift in sentiment. Therefore we should closely monitor the key pieces of economic news from the UK which are next Wednesday with Industrial and Manufacturing data. Then the following week is UK Inflation data on the 17th and Unemployment data the 18th, two key pieces of information the Bank of England are monitoring to determine whether or not to raise interest rates.

If you have a transaction to make buying or selling the pound the coming weeks will be very important and whilst there is a chance the pound will rise higher, there is also a real possibility it could fall if the news doesn’t quite meet up to the high expectations which have been set already.

For more information at no cost or obligation on the best way forward for any sterling transfers please contact me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

British politics in turmoil, due to ‘Brexit’ (Dayle Littlejohn)

Throughout Friday the pound plummeted against all of the major currencies due to the UK publics decision to the leave the European Union.

UK Prime Minister and Conservative leader David Cameron announced he would be standing down and wanted his predecessor to take over by October. Many believe former Mayor of London Boris Johnson could take over however many of the Conservative MPs feel that Boris betrayed David Cameron for his own political benefit.

This morning half of the Labour MPs have announced they could resign in a bid to remove Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Furthermore, this weekend Hilary Benn announced he had ‘lost confidence’ in Corbyn’s leadership and consequently was sacked.

At the moment it seems like the Conservative party and Labour party are clearly divided which in turn will no doubt put pressure on the UK and consequently the Pound.

What should I expect this week for the pound?

With the FTSE100 down and the pound plummeting on Friday, unfortunately I think there will be more of the same this week. HSBC have already announced they could move 1000 employees from London to France once the UK leaves the European Union. As soon as more businesses start to announce they could be pulling the plug in the UK the pound’s value will fall.

If you have a foreign currency to buy within the next 12 months and do not have all of your Sterling available we can still help before the pound falls further. I would recommend locking into a forward contract, this is where you take today’s exchange rates but pay later for it.

When buying or selling the Pound its important to analyse both currencies that you will be trading (GBPEUR, GBPUSD, GBPAUD). Feel free to email me with the currency pair you are looking to trade and the time-scales you are working too and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will make you more informed when trading.

Alternatively call me on 01494-787478 and ask to speak to Dayle Littlejohn. I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound Sterling Forecast

Pound to US Dollar forecast Bets increase on 50 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed What could happen to GBPUSD?

Sterling remains supported but the more recent data for February is as expected looking worse than expected. Small declines in Construction and Services output are perhaps potentially indicative more of the recent bad weather than any likely declines in the pace of growth in the UK economy although few would doubt that the strong growth spurts witnessed earlier this year seem to have receded for the time being.

Today’s Interest rate decision does not appear to hold too much in store, I am expecting more in the ECB (European Central Bank) statement. Essentially some slightly better news for the Eurozone that Inflation is rising last week, will have helped to keep the lid on further action for the ECB. The pound to euro exchange rate may fall slightly following the statement.

All in all the pound is performing very well and there is an expectation the pound will remain supported. The chance of the pound making significant further gains in the short term do however look limited so if you are keen to look at buying a foreign currency with the pound I suggest moving sooner.

If you are planning a transaction and wish to achieve a better exchange rate and find out about a better service please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with me Jonathan.

Important day for the Pound – Trade balance and key inflation figures

Good morning readers,

A quick post this morning as I can see a busy day in the office, this morning at 09:30am brings key inflationary data which could be critical as to what the Bank of England do next with interest rates.

Although high inflation appears to be a global problem, should figures come out higher than expected then I still believe we will see Sterling strength and an increased possibility of a rate hike in the U.K sooner rather than later, for those who are not aware a rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned and markets move on rumour as well as fact.

Couple this with Trade Balance figures coming out at the same time and it does lead to an eventful morning, last time out the Trade Balance was worse than expected and should this happen again  we may see this hold back any Sterling strength.

The other side of the coin this morning is that if inflation is lower than last month and appears to be naturally dropping we may see Sterling weakness as it reduces the need for a rate hike.

Expected is 4.4% for CPI and personally although the day has started off with weakness for the Pound I feel we will be up by the end of the day against most majors, however you never know…..

Sentances comments do little to boost sterling

Sentance drops a bomb shell

Andrew Sentance reached the end of a five year tenure as a Bank of England policymaker yesterday and came out with comments that The BoE is in danger of losing its credibility as the British public is losing faith in the Bank’s ability to reign in soaring inflation.

For the past 12 months, Sentance has called for a rise in the low interest rate in an attempt to control inflation but his fellow colleagues have outvoted him in calling for the rate to be unchanged at 0.5%

Sentances comments did little to boost the pound today as markets are still expecting the rate to be left unchanged at next weeks decision. It is very unlikely that the MPC will listen to Sentances comments now that he has left his position.    

The BoE are stuck between a rock and a hard place at present as the economy can not handle a rate rise. Eventually though we will have to see rates increase.  I feel the longer we leave them unchanged the more sharply they will have to rise in the future which could effect economic growth and not bring as much strength to the weak pound as we may hope for at the end of the year. I feel that while rates are left unchanged we could see the Pound weaken back down near to last months lows of 1.1050 against the Euro and 1.60 against the USD.

Today was a another poor day for the pound with rates against a host of currencies weakening to extremely low levels against the Kiwi Dollar and Swiss franc. If you have a requirement and would like to speak with me regarding the future outlook for sterling exchange rates then please email me on bma@currencies.co.uk

 

Sterling takes a tumble following poor employment data – Weakness across the board

The Pound has taken a tumble in trading this morning following poor employment data for the U.K – adding to what has been a pretty poor start to the week for Sterling.

The Pound has lost over 2% against the Euro and over two cents against the U.S Dollar, a grave shame following a reasonably positive few weeks unless of course you are looking to sell currency to bring back into Sterling.

Retail sales data is due out tomorrow morning which hopefully will not follow the same trend as other data releases this week however should they come out poor again it could set the trend leading up to Christmas, which is notoriously thin for trading.

If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or simply need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly. Alternatively, if you would like assistance in finding your dream home abroad then feel free to visit www.overseaspropertysearcher.com and let one of our property experts make the hunt much easier for you.

Getting the best deal on your foreign exchange. Currency market update (Mike Vaughan)

Michael Vaughan
Michael Vaughan

On what is a relatively quiet day for the pound other data sets to take not of include the following:

–          Euro Zone Consumer Price Index (inflation figures) 10:00

–          Euro Zone Unemployment data 10:00

–          GDP data from Canada at 13:30

The main focus for GBP/EUR buyers will be the inflation figures with many experts concerned about the threat of deflation should the figure creep closer towards 0% (currently sits at 0.8%) then look for Euro weakness. The consensus is for a slight upward move of 0.9% – this and anything higher could lend support to the Euro.

Looking at other data we have seen some significant shifts on the riskier currencies this week, notably the ZAR which has seen a high low this week ranging from 18.07 to 18.78. There have also been some dramatic moves for the emerging markets with huge swings seen for the Turkish Lira and Argentinian Peso. The sell-off on these came as other emerging market currencies have gotten hammered due to the expectation that the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will pull back on propping up their own economies. This shows how fragile the markets is at the moment and although these are not commonly traded currencies here at currencies.co.uk it shows how volatile and unpredictable the money markets can be.

Should you have an upcoming bank to bank money exchange to arrange and you would like assistance with your transfer then please get in touch. When making your decision about the timing of your transfer it is best to get as much information as possible. To find out more about the currency service we provide and the various contracts we can offer then please get in touch on 01494 787478. Alternatively email me with a brief overview of your particular requirement and I will happily get in touch to run through your options and to discuss the current market trends. Email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

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