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Theresa May Declares Brexit Negotiations Started Well (Ben Fletcher)

By
Ben Fletcher
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Prime Minister May arrived in Brussels today to meet with European Union Leaders for the first time since she lost her majority at the General Election earlier this month. May still without a controlling majority is going ahead with negotiations as previously planned. The Prime Minister, arguably as a token of goodwill, is going to propose protection for both EU and UK expats across Europe as the first point on her agenda.

The GBP/EUR rate today has been particularly timid for the first time in a while, with very little movement across the course of the day. The rate closed near the day high of 1.136 and with Theresa May set to speak tonight there could be turbulence this evening. Sterling has taken a beating with so much speculation on what sort of deal the UK will go for and freedom of movement is key. If Theresa May’s comments are well received then we could see positive movements for Sterling.

Bank of England Committee Member Speech

Kirstin Forbes is an outgoing member of the BOE Monetary Policy Committee and will deliver a speech tomorrow evening. Forbes is known for being hawkish and is a believer in a interest rate hike in the UK. Earlier this week committee member Andy Haldane spoke about an interest rate hike coming this year and Sterling gained nearly a cent against the Euro.

Whilst there is considerable uncertainty, tomorrow may present a window for Euro buyers as the GBP/EUR rate could move above 1.14 of the back of Forbes comments. Euro sellers are still very much benefiting from the recent Sterling weakness but if you do need to buy Euros imminently tomorrow could be an opportunity to take advantage of.

Working for a brokerage I am able to actively monitor the markets for you if you do have a requirement. Setting a rate alert would allow me to notify of movements in your favour should you have a requirement in either the near or longer future. I am confident I can offer you a saving on your existing method of transfer, if you would like to ask any questions about our currency brokerage or the forecasts mentioned above please send me an email to [email protected].

Will Sterling’s Recovery Continue? (Matthew Vassallo)

By
Matthew Vassallo
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GBP USD Exchange Rate: The Week Ahead July 25th 

Sterling has started to claw back some of the ground its lost against the EUR since the Brexit decision, with GBP/EUR rates putting pressure on 1.20 during Tuesday’s trading. Despite the pair dropping back slightly following the close of European trading, the Pound has clearly benefitted from the recent run of strong UK economic data.

The catalyst for Sterling’s spike was last week’s Manufacturing & Construction data, both of which came in well above market expectation. The is always key for investors who will price in the expected result of any key economic data release. If the figure comes in outside of this we usually see increase market volatility, as happened with Sterling last week. This gives short-term opportunities to those clients holding the Pound to trade above levels they may have expected.

Whilst the Pounds positon is looking far healthier than it was a couple of months ago, we need to remember there is still a huge amount of uncertainty surrounding the UK’s current economic positions. We are still no closer to understanding how and when we will facilitate our exit from the EU and the potential impact this will have on GBP exchange rates. Those clients holding Sterling have been given a short-term opportunity to trade almost five cents higher than we sat only a month ago and I would extremely tempted to take advantage of this position and not gamble on what is still a very volatile and unpredictable market.

Looking at GBP/USD rates and again we’ve seen the Pound bounce back, with rates moving back above 1.34 at today’s high. With the US election campaigns starting to take centre stage, I expect further volatility as we head towards Novembers vote. The more the polls narrow the more pressure I expect the USD to come under pressure, as the markets do not view a Donald Trump victory as the positive outcome. Therefore, I would be looking to take advantage of the near 30 year highs and not gamble on another major spike for the Greenback.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of my team for Matt. Alternatively, you can register your details through this page, or email me directly on [email protected]

The election and how it may impact on the Pound – Pound Sterling Forecast election special

By
Daniel Wright
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GBP USD Slips Ahead of BoE Rate Decision

The Election and the impact it may have on the Pound

Well if the polls are anything to go by we are in for a real roller coaster ride in the next 24 hours as the U.K head into voting stations in what may be the closest election in decades.

With political certainty being one of the key factors that have an effect on the value of a currency, Sterling may struggle until we have cemented not only who will be running the U.K but also how they plan to approach their reign.

One of the best ways of putting it is that if you were due to invest in a business (i.e the U.K/Pound) then it is highly unlikely you would take the plunge until you actually knew who would be running that business and how they planned to run it. Until we have some clear results from this election then we are in exactly that position, therefore demand in the Pound slows and Sterling’s value could more than likely drop.

I thought it may be prudent to outline the possibilities that may arise in the coming days, weeks or even months and how they could impact on the value of the Pound.

First and foremost, it does look like there is now a slim chance of any party achieving a majority. A majority would be where they can set up Government solely without the need for seeking out other parties to join together with to form what is known as a coalition.

In the unlikely event that we do see a majority for the Conservatives then I would not be surprised to see Sterling gain a lot of strength as it would show certainty and also with the economy currently performing fairly well, should be taken kindly by the markets. A Labour majority may not be so positive for Sterling initially as we may see quite a lot of change on the horizon for the U.K therefore investors may hold back to wait and see what changes may be made.

Hung Parliament

It is fairly likely that once results are announced we may see what is known as a hung Parliament. This is basically where no single political party wins a majority in the House of Commons and this is where things can really start to get interesting.

Essentially, there are usually 12 days allowed for incumbent Government (current holder of political office) to attempt to form a coalition. This may be trickier than before as the current party involved in the coalition (Lib Dems) has seemingly lost a large amount of support after not keeping to key points of their manifesto during 2010.

During this period I expect large volatility for the Pound and a limit order/stop loss contract may be a prudent approach. This is where you can set a particular level you wish to achieve or a lower limit you do not want to buy below and either may be secured automatically for you should the market price become available. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on [email protected] or call our trading floor line on 01494 787478 for more information.

After 12 days (although it did take 13 last time around) if the Conservatives have failed to put together a coalition then the largest opposition party may be asked to put together a coalition. This has every potential to end up being the Labour party attempting to put something together with the SNP (Scottish National Party).

Should this be the case then I feel Sterling may really suffer as the SNP have already commented that they would like to have another referendum on Scottish independence and I would be highly surprised that they would agree to anything without the potential of this taking place. When we had the vote for Scottish independence last year and the chance of a yes vote heightened, Sterling dropped off by over 4% in a few days so with the potential of this looming, even sometime in the future the Pound will more than likely suffer.

In the event that no party can put together a coalition then we may have a situation of ‘no overall control’ which was seen a number of times in the twentieth century. This would make life hard for the Pound and would lead to a second election later in the year and again may lead to a tricky period for the U.K and indeed the Pound for a number of months.

All in all if you are looking to buy or sell foreign currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is extremely important that you make your account manager here at currencies.co.uk fully aware. If you are working to a particular budget then our contract options may be a sensible approach, you can book an exchange rate for anything up to a year in advance for just a small deposit, helping you to budget well in advance for the year ahead. If you would like any assistance or one of our friendly traders to explain the various options available to you then either email me on [email protected]   or call us directly on 01494 787 478.

Sterling at close to an 8 month low against the USD and a fresh week low against the Euro

By
Daniel Wright
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It had been a turbulent week for sterling exchange rates with many data releases out and growing concerns about Euro debt concerns. We have seen the pound weaken by about 4% against the USD over the last 3 weeks now trading at a close to an 8 month low and we have recently dropped from the weekends high of 1.1720 down to 1.1460 since Monday which is a decrease of 2.21%. 

Worries about growth in the UK economy intensified yesterday and this morning following unemployment and retail figures for the UK.  Unemployment showed a further 80K people out of work which takes the total figure to 2.51 million and retail figures out this morning showed a decline to -0.2% for the month. Both have weighed heavily on the pound and shows that the UK economy is slowing again with fears of a double dip recession looming.

Stagflation (rising inflation and no growth) is a real concern for the UK and the Bank of England is really stuck between a rock and a hard place.  There have been many rumors surfacing about another bout of quantitative easing taking place and when we have seen this occur in the past sterling has plummeted quite significantly.

For Euro buyers you may well think that all the issues surrounding the Euro zone may be positive for the pound with the downgrades of banks in France recently. Unfortunately the pound is suffering as UK banks are supposedly the most exposed country apart from Italy to the Euro zone debt crisis. With this in mind a Euro zone default could be catastrophic to an already weak UK economy and I believe that we could see rates weaken by as much as 3-4% (1.10/1.11) over the coming weeks.

Against the USD mounting worries over the Euro zone’s debt problems have kept investors wary of riskier currencies, hence turning away from the pound. The USD is benefiting from a flight to safety at present as whenever there is global turmoil you tend to see the USD strengthen which is exactly what we are seeing at present. My prediction is for the pound to weaken further to levels around 1.55.

If you are concerned about the pound’s recent decline we have numerous tools that can try and help assist you maximize your currency exchange. If you wish to speak with myself I can talk you through all the options that may be suitable for your requirement and we can help assist you make a saving on your exchange over the high street bank of up to 4%. Please feel free to call me on 01494 787 474 or email at [email protected] Please ask for Ben and quote the pound sterling forecast website.

Pound Sterling losses continue as cost of living crisis dominates headlines – New Prime Minister to be announced today

By
Daniel Wright
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Pound to Euro rate continues to fall, making history in the process

Sterling exchange rates have continues to drift to kick start a new trading week, as the cost of living crisis dominates headlines across UK media.

With today being an important day for UK politics as we see the announcement of the winner in the Conservative party leadership contest, and ultimately who will be the new Prime Minister, they will almost instantaneously have to announce how they plan to combat what appears to be an extremely challenging winter for the majority of households and businesses.

It is widely expected that Liz Truss will be announced later today at 12:30 and all eyes from investors and speculators will be on her plans to keep people and certain business’s afloat as we face a difficult winter of rising costs, forced closures of retailers, and people simply having to choose between food on the table or heating the house.

This is still clearly impacting the value of Sterling exchange rates, and many feel that it will continue to impact them in the coming months too.

Capital Economics, a well-known independent economic research business has some fairly negative predictions out there for the pound, with expectations that Sterling will lose roughly 5% on a trade-weighted basis in the coming months. This essentially means they expect weakness against most majors, a 5% drop for GBP/EUR or GBP/USD would see Sterling drop below 1.10 as an example, so although it feels low now, if these predictions come true then there may be much further to fall.

It has to be said that the markets can change very quickly and forecasts can be wrong, so it is key to retain the view that things could change, however economic data in the States and the Eurozone is way outperforming the U.K at present, and the drop off in the pound only adds fuel to the fire.

A lower pound means everything imported costs more, from food to gas prices, the lower it drops the higher inflation rises and the more people are paying for goods and services, I personally am noticing costs for almost everything rising and that will be down to many things, but also a lower pound pushing up fuel, transportation, energy and packaging costs for basically every product on our shelves.

The week ahead

We have the news on the new PM later this morning to kick start the week, and as mentioned previously I believe the plans laid out off the back of that could be key for the pound in the early stages of the week.

For those with an interest in Australian or Canadian Dollars, we have the RBA interest rate decision tonight and the Bank of Canada later this week on Wednesday.

Euro followers will note growth figures on Wednesday and more importantly the European Central Bank interest rate decision on Thursday, where the market expects an aggressive 75 basis points hike in interest rates, any change to this could cause immediate volatility, and the wording used regarding future fiscal policy in the press conference after is also likely to set the tone for how the Euro performs over the rest of the trading week.

Currency exchange to carry out and worried about market movements?

If you have an exchange to carry out, yet you are concerned about what is going on currently then feel free to get in touch with us today. We are experts in this field and whilst we cannot directly advise you we can help you negotiate these challenging times along with having a number of tools to assist you to avoid adverse market movement or to help you take advantage of a spike.

If you would like to discuss anything within this article in further detail feel free to contact me at [email protected] and I will be happy to help you.

Alternatively, Click this link and let us know your requirement and we will be in touch to discuss your options in more detail.

Best exchange rates for Euros & Dollars. Next week’s interest rate decision will be interesting for the pound.

By
Daniel Wright
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GBP USD Exchange Rate: The Week Ahead October 24th

Was this week the calm before the storm for the British Pound. We have seen a decline for the pound against the majority of majors out there this week. Most notably against the USD, AUD & NZD.

Next week could certainly be an interesting one for those of you with a requirement to buy or sell sterling. The key data release will come out on Thursday when the UK will release its latest interest rate decision along with any movements on quantitative easing (QE) With this week’s GDP release showing that output fell more than what was expected over the last year, will we see the Bank of England extend its QE programme? With the new Governor of the bank coming in next week it will certainly be an uncertain time as to how he will look at strengthening the UK economy. Many analysts believe that he will try and keep a weak pound to entice overseas investment. He could do this through QE or look at other methods but next Thursday will be his first rate decision and the markets have already been weakening on the uncertainty factor.

Prior to Thursday there is a host of data out for the UK. Monday we kick off with unemployment and manufacturing data so this could be the start of further declines should the data come out worse than anticipated.

Next week we will inform you of a more detailed outline of how things will occur for the pound but should you require moving funds into or out of the UK then you may be wise to look at things before Thursday.

If you need to make a transfer and would like to know more about the rates and service that we offer then please feel free to email me at [email protected] We offer a very personal service to help you maximise your exchange and if I know what your requirement is I can explain the options that are available to you.

Have a good weekend and thank you for reading.

Ben Amrany

[email protected]

Sterling exchange rates are likely to continue to fall from current levels (Joseph Wright)

By
Joe Wright
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GBP EUR Exchange Rate: The Week Ahead August 15th

It’s a full week after the initial drop from the shock of the ‘Brexit’ vote and I think it’s fair to say that Sterling exchange rates aren’t showing many signs of a fightback as of yet.

The Pound had begun to climb slightly off of its initial lows earlier in the week, although I think that was inevitable as bargain hunters in the FX markets would have propped up the price as they bought it at it’s very lowest looking to make a quick buck, but that upwards momentum was soon reversed as the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney announced that a further Interest Rate cut is a possibility, and this immediately drove the Pound downwards, to new 52 week lows in some cases.

The fallout from the ‘Brexit’ outcome of last weeks EU Referendum in the UK is currently one of the main drivers of currency and equity movements worldwide, let alone in the UK. With the UK under the microscope I think we can expect to see any news surrounding the ‘Brexit’ having the potential to affect Sterling exchange rates whether GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD or any other currency pair involving GBP. Most developments as of yet have had a negative impact on the Pounds value and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the downward trend continue as we approach the Monetary Policy Committee’s next meeting on August the 4th when the next cut in Interest Rates could occur.  

Those with an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound may wish to get in contact regarding strategies and how best to time the trade, or trades should you be open to the approach of a staggered entry. Our specialist currency exchange brokerage doesn’t offer financial advice but we do assist our clients with the timing of their trades based on price targets and historical data such as annual and daily highs and lows.

If you would like to discuss your currency exchange with me, and would like to consider taking advantage of award winning exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading regulated currency brokerages, feel free to email me directly ideally with a telephone number on [email protected] with an outline of your requirement. You can also call me directly on 01494 787 478, just ask one of the reception team for Joe.

Olympic opening Ceremony sums up that Britain is indeed great – And anyone based in the U.K that saw the amount of people queuing for Euromillions lottery tickets on Friday do you believe we are deep in recession?

By
Daniel Wright
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GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review July 16  

The scene was set and the script was written for the London Olympic opening ceremony to be a shocker… Surely something would go drastically wrong as the eyes of the worlds media watched eagerly for a large error. In fact in my opinion the whole thing was absolutely brilliant and showed what a fantastic force we are and bought a great deal ofjoy and confidence to the U.K as a whole.

Just before the start of the ceremony we had one major rush for Euromillions lottery tickets – Everyone I know bought lots and lots of tickets and every shop I went past on my home had people queuing out of the door, along with that most offices had syndicates running and there was a great buzz as to celebrate the Olympics 100 millionares were going to be made in the U.K as part of a raffle, along with a top prize of over €100,000,000. Needless to say I didn’t win the top prize or indeed become a millionaire but I did manage to get a whopping £45!

The point of all my gabbling on is that I think there are much better economic data figures to come from the U.K in the coming weeks and months, more than likely August/September should be a little more positive compared to what we have seen over the past few months which hopefully should lead to Sterling gaining back a little ground against most of the majors.

This is purely my opinion and I don’t know what is going on behind closed doors… With the Bank of England Interest Rate decision due out on Thursday anythnig can indeed be thrown into the mix.

Should you have a bank to bank currency transaction to carry out either imminently or in the future then I can personally help you. I deal with private and corporate clients and offer not only award winning rates of exchange  but an award winning level of customer service to match. Email me today [email protected] if you would like assistance and I shall be more than happy to call you back, If you just want updates for now then feel free to join our mailing list by filling in the form at the top right hand side of this page.

 

Sterling exchange rates up against Euro and Dollar yet down against Australian Dollar (Daniel Wright)

By
Daniel Wright
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Pound to US Dollar rates influenced by political uncertainty in the UK

The Pound had a mixed day against most major currencies yesterday, making slight gains against the Euro and Dollar yet losing ground against the Australian Dollar overnight.

Unemployment levels showed an improvement to 5.3% for the U.K yet average earnings actually dropped off so employment data released in the morning more or less cancelled each other out.

The Euro is particularly shaky as it stands with fairly dovish comments from the Head of thew European Central bank Mario Draghi speaking this morning not helping and pushing the Euro to a three month low against Sterling meaning it is the best time to buy Euros in the past three months!

The Dollar has been a funny character of late and I believe that there is still scope for it to drop back towards 1.50 should the wheels remain in motion for an interest rate hike in December.

Regarding the Australian Dollar we had a big surprise as unemployment figures came out much better than expectations, leading to Australian Dollar strength overnight and pushing rates back into the 2.12 region. What is surprising at present is that the Australian economy is standing tall once again in the midst of a Chinese slowdown.

The Australian Dollar is showing as good a defence as the Australian rugby team did in the rugby world cup, much like it did in the European crisis but I am still firmly of the belief that at some point we will see a Nonu time crumble and the rate may make it back to 2.20.

If you are looking to purchase Euros, Dollars, Australian Dollars or any other major currency and you want to make sure that you get the most for your money then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on [email protected] with a brief description of your requirements and the timescales you are working to and i will be more than happy to contact you personally.

 

GBP/ EUR exchange rates fall off the back of Greek PM Alexis Tsipras new debt proposal. Dayle Littlejohn

By
Dayle Littlejohn
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GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review July 16  

Today Alexis Tsipras confirmed to the press he has issued a realistic proposal to eurozone ministers, in order for Greece to exit their current crisis. With a deal potentially now on the cards this Friday GBP/EUR exchange rates have dropped by over a cent.  Going forward the Greeks owe €300mn this Friday, €300mn on the 12th, €600mn on the 16th and €300mn on the 19th. If a deal is reached regarding the next 4 payments I believe the euro will make further inroads against the pound and exchange rates will drop towards the mid 1.30s. If you are buying or selling euros and are looking for the ‘best’ exchange rate feel free to get in touch [email protected] and ask for a quote.

USD News

Today at 2pm factory orders (MoM) came in at -0.4%, which was 0.4% beneath the consensus and 2.6% beneath previous. The data has therefore weakened the dollar and GBP/ USD (also known as cable exchange rates) has risen back into the 1.53s from the 1.51s. This means clients that purchased USD today at the low compared to the high would have paid an extra £2,000. Therefore its crucial to have an understanding of the upcoming economic data releases when purchasing a currency. If you are looking to buy a foreign currency with sterling feel free to get in touch and ask for upcoming data releases and a forecast.  Please call 0044 1494 787 478 or email me [email protected]

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None of the information contained in this website constitutes, nor should be construed as financial advice. It should not be interpreted as a solicitation to offer to buy or sell any currency or as a recommendation to trade. Where interbank exchange rates are referenced within the website these should only be used as a guide on the performance of a market. These rates are not indicative of our exchange rates – please contact us for a quote.

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