Volatile period ahead for Pound vs Euro with Brexit just three months away

Volatile period ahead for Pound vs Euro with Brexit just three months away

The Pound is close to its lowest level all year as we are now just three months away from the deadline when the UK is due to officially leave the European Union.

The latest key date will come in the next fortnight when MPs will meet once again to vote on the current Brexit deal.

Earlier this month the vote was postponed after it emerged that Theresa May clearly didn’t have enough support to get the Brexit deal through and since then she has tried to lobby the EU to make some amendments to the deal on offer.

Could the UK stay in the European Union?

What has emerged during the course of this month is that there is clearly a lot of support in favour of remaining in the European Union. At the moment MPs have made it clear that they are in favour of staying in the EU. The EU clearly wants to make things difficult for the UK to leave and indeed it could be argued that as Theresa May previously voted to remain, is the plan to keep challenging the deal until we get towards the end of March?

The European Court of Justice has said on a number of occasions that the UK will be allowed to revoke Article 50 until the end of the two year period which ends in March 2019 so if we face the prospect of a no deal could the UK revoke Article 50?

Theresa May has committed to lead us through Brexit but if she is unable to get the Brexit deal through parliament I think she could end up stepping down as she will not be able to complete her mandate, so could we see another leader by Spring 2019 or indeed a general election coming by then?

What’s next for Pound vs Euro rates?

There is a lot of uncertainty over the next few months and this has caused the Pound to remain under pressure. The future of Pound vs Euro rates will be heavily reliant on how the first quarter of 2019 goes in terms of the Brexit discussions.

In the short term I think we could briefly dip below 1.10 on Pound vs Euro exchange rates, but I think the losses will be limited as GBP/EUR has remained between 1.10-1.15.

Indeed, during this year the foreign exchange markets still appear to be adopting a wait and see approach as to what may happen when or if the Brexit does take place. My current suspicion is that we could either see a second referendum or Article 50 revoked.

Whatever happens I expect a very volatile next three months for the Pound vs Euro so it may be worth getting your currency organised in the short term to avoid the heightened risks of what may happen.

For a free quote you can contact me directly using the form below and I look forward to hearing from you.

Will the Pound to Euro rate drop below 1.10? What may happen to GBP/EUR in early January?

Will Sterling drop below 1.10 against the Euro? What may happen in early January?

The Pound has remained reasonably flat against the Euro this week as we enter the festive season and I feel that this may be the situation until the end of the trading year, unless any large surprises pop up.

With very little news due to come out from Brexit now that Parliament are due to take their recess period the market will be reliant on general sentiment and any surprise news that hits the media.

Generally at this time of year you can find that trading levels are much thinner, so if there are any developments with Brexit or any market moving releases, then you may see the rates move a little more than normal.

Will Sterling Euro drop below 1.10?

Many of my clients are now asking me if I feel the rate could drop back below a key resistance level of 1.10 and I have to say that in my opinion the answer is yes. Whether or not it stays below 1.10 for a long period of time will be dependent on how things go for Theresa May in her Parliamentary vote. As it stands if you look at both sides of GBP/EUR politically and in terms of economic performance the Pound has more chance of dropping than rising.

UK growth downgraded

Growth expectations were yesterday downgraded for the UK by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, from 0.3% to 0.2% and even matters like the Gatwick drone issue will not help economic performance for December as airlines will have a huge headache to try and overcome.

Parliament expected to vote down current Brexit deal

The Parliamentary vote on Brexit is due to happen in mid January and I really do not see how Theresa May is going to get enough support to push through her deal. I cannot see her getting enough improvement on its current terms to turn enough heads.

I would expect Sterling to wobble in advance of this vote, however it would not be a surprise to see the Pound strengthen after it, even is she loses as although it does open up the possibility of a ‘no deal’ Brexit it does also give the potential of Theresa May leaving and someone else taking the reigns. This may delay or even cancel Article 50 which could actually give Sterling a huge boost.

All in all if you have a large exchange to make in the near future involving buying or selling Euros then it is key that you deal with a proactive and efficient currency broker that can help you negotiate these choppy waters ahead. We here at Pound Sterling Forecast can help you with this, along with helping you secure a highly competitive rate when you do come to actually lock in your exchange.

Fill in the form below and I will be happy to contact you personally and to help you tailor a game plan for your specific situation.

Trump and Brexit stealing the headlines

Trump and Brexit stealing the headlines

So far this week the pound has recovered slightly against the US dollar, however I am putting this down to US dollar weakness over sterling strength.

Earlier in the week President Donald Trump was trying to convince the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates on hold, however on Wednesday night the Fed decided to hike interest rates further by 0.25%. Furthermore, following the hike the Fed provided a fairly dovish statement which insinuated that the cycle of interest rates hikes could be slowed throughout 2019. This led to investors selling off the US dollar.

US Defense Secretary resigns

Donald Trump was back in the spotlight yesterday, when Defense Secretary Jim Mattis handed in his resignation due to the difference in opinion he has with the President. The Defense Secretary has made it clear over the last 12 months that his job is to defend US troops, however the President’s decision to withdraw troops from Syria he couldn’t support. This is another close member of Trump’s staff to resign due to the President, which can only be a problem for the President going forward.

All eyes will turn to congress when they return next year. Will new members of congress want further reassurances from Donald Trump in regards to the meddling in the election or even to see his tax returns? I expect the US dollar could come under pressure early next year.

However it’s certainly not good news for clients that are buying US dollars. The ongoing Brexit saga is causing concern for investors. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has not confirmed that she has received any further concessions from the EU therefore in the second week of January, I expect MPs will be debating the same Brexit deal that was on the table 4 weeks earlier.

If it’s the case that MPs make it clear that they won’t back Mrs May then the vote looks to be a complete waste of time and this is a concern for clients holding onto sterling. Could Theresa May’s time as Prime Minister be coming to an end? If the vote isn’t passed I believe she will resign which could lead to further sterling weakness.

If you would like to discuss pound to dollar rates and the events that could affect them please feel free to get in contact for more information. You can send me a message directly using the form below:

GBP to CAD forecast: Brexit Fears Helping to Support CAD Value

GBP to CAD forecast: Brexit Fears Helping to Support CAD Value

Sterling has climbed away from last week’s low against the CAD, with the pair once again trading back above 1.70.

This will feel like a small victory for many clients looking to execute a GBP to CAD exchange over the coming days, considering at last week’s low the Pound had fallen below 1.68.

The recovery came in line with Theresa may withstanding a vote of no confidence by her own Tory party. However, with a Brexit deal seemingly no closer and more public spats between the PM and leading Government figures both past and present, I am not anticipating an aggressive increase for GBP to CAD rates as we head towards the Christmas break.

Market confidence in the Pound is ebbing lower seemingly by the day, as investors continue to shy away from the Pound amidst the ongoing

Uncertainty surrounding Brexit

With the prospect of the UK leaving the EU by March’s deadline without a deal being in place growing, there is certainly no guarantee that the pound will be able to hold its position above 1.70 as we head into the New Year.

The difficulties for the Canadian dollar

Looking at the Canadian economy and this is also facing difficulties of its own. Economic forecasts are predicting that the Canadian economy will slow next year, predicting it to fall to 1.9% from the expected 2.1% this year.

A fall in oil prices is having a detrimental effect on Canada’s export driven economy. Canada is one of the largest exporters of crude oil globally, so this drop along with a general slowdown in global trade is causing the Canadian economy to slow, thus weakening the CAD as a result.

It is likely that the CAD’s current value against GBP is being support, at least to some extent, by the growing market concerns regarding how the UK economy will fair post Brexit.

However, if Theresa May does manage to get her Brexit deal with Brussels approved by the House of Commons next month, then I would anticipate a spike for the Pound and we could see a run back towards 1.80 against the CAD.

For more information on GBP to CAD rates please feel free to use the form below to ask a question. I’ll be happy to get in touch personally and discuss your query.

Pound to Dollar forecast: What’s next for Sterling and will the US Dollar get stronger in 2019?

Pound to Dollar forecast: How will GBP fair against the USD during 2019?

The Pound hit a 20 month low against the Dollar in trading sessions earlier in the week as the markets digested the fact that Theresa May had to face a vote of no confidence, which led to political uncertainty for the UK and Sterling weakness.

Sterling then made gains back against the Dollar as the week progressed following a victory for Prime Minister May and Brexit talks getting back into the swing of things. It does appear that very little progress is being made and it appears unlikely that we will see any major changes to the current Brexit deal before the vote is finally put to Parliament on January 14th.

Parliament goes into recess at the end of next week until January 7th so during the festive season I would not expect any major changes politically until they return. Behind closed doors I believe Theresa May will still be going cap in hand to a number of European leaders trying to squeeze any extra positives into her deal that she can.

Sterling weakness expected as we enter 2019

I would be surprised to see enough changes to have been made for Parliament to accept the deal and this could lead to a very shaky start to the year for the Pound against the Dollar. I would not be surprised to see the rate slip back down into the lower 1.20s unless there is a chance of article 50 being revoked or a strong chance of a second referendum, this could lead to significant gains for the Pound against all major currencies.

Will the Dollar strengthen in 2019?

Many analysts actually believe that the Dollar may not have a good year next year. With a slowing global economy the current pace of interest rate hikes in the U.S may be likely to slow up and Donald Trump’s exceptional run of economic data may start to take a turn back the other way.

Of course for GBP/USD rates Brexit will be the main driver to start off the year and what happens there will most likely be key to the first quarter of 2019 and possibly beyond. The general feeling is that as the year progresses we may see US Dollar weakness as data sets start to disappoint.

Pound to Dollar forecast – GBP/USD prediction

If I had to predict where I see Dollar exchange rates, (in what is a highly unpredictable market) I would expect GBP/USD to remain within the 1.24-1.30 range in early January with a view to moving up into the 1.33-1.40 range in the second quarter of the year, assuming there are no major Brexit banana skins that knock the Pound drastically.

When the markets are so politically driven opinions are ever changing, if you have the need to buy or sell Dollars, or any currency pegged to the Dollar then I am well positioned to help you get the most for your money. Feel free to fill in the form below this post to speak with me directly, or to set a rate alert on this site should you wish. I look forward to assisting you.

GBP/CAD Rates Fall after Disappointing Outcome at EU Summit for British PM

GBP/CAD Rates Fall after Disappointing Outcome at EU Summit for British PM

Pound to Canadian dollar exchange rates have slipped lower as Brexit uncertainty continues to drive the price of sterling. UK Prime Minister Theresa May was in Brussels yesterday for the EU summit, seeking concessions or reassurances over the Irish backstop which has proved to be the most contentious of issues.

The response from the EU however was not in the Prime Minster’s favour having stated that the withdrawal agreement is not to be reopened for renegotiation. Theresa May made a special plea last night to get the deal over the line and suggested a time limit on the backstop, but her performance was described by commentators as bad and vague.

Further Sterling weakness could be on the horizon

GBP/CAD rates have fallen to 1.6850 for the pair and there could be further weakness in the pound if there is more hostility against the Prime Minister from within the Conservative party. It was only this week when a vote of confidence was held in the Prime Minister and although she won that vote there were still over 100 Conservative politicians who voted against her. There are calls for her to resign and these views may harden in light of the disappointing outcome that she received from the EU last night. Clients looking to buy Canadian dollars are likely to struggle to make major headway.

Oil prices affecting GBP/CAD rates

In Canada the Bank of Canada has highlighted risks ahead stemming from a fluctuating price of oil and also the risks to global trade as a result of the trade war between the US and China. These risks are significant and are likely to create a volatile period ahead for the Canadian dollar in the New Year.

Trade negotiations between the US and China, which are relevant, have hit a stumbling block after the US arrest of a high ranking Chinese national which has been involved with the Chinese telecoms company Huawei. It has been reported that there may be an intervention from US President Donald Trump which could make a deal to trade more likely. For the moment any future trade tariffs are on ice for three months whilst a deal is potentially hammered out.

To discuss your Canadian dollar transfer and how to time your exchange at the optimum time then please feel free to contact me James using the form below:

Pound to Euro Forecast: Theresa May stonewalled by Brussels

Pound to Euro Forecast: Theresa May stonewalled by Brussels

In today’s pound to euro forecast we discussed the latest events affecting the rates, starting with Theresa May’s Brexit deal which appears to stand little chance of passing through the House of Commons. The PM’s hopes of gaining assistance from EU leaders to push through her Brexit deal in the House of Commons have been dashed. She now must return home to face the wrath of her Party.

May’s intention was to head to the EU’s winter summit in Brussels to try and gain legal assurances that the Irish back-stop would be a temporary situation.

May stated the following upon her arrival, “I don’t expect an immediate breakthrough but what I do hope is that we can start work as quickly as possible on the assurances that are necessary”.

The response from Brussels was far from positive and they offered no legal assurances on the Irish back-stop. Apparently Mrs May offered one plan which was not to agree a conclusion date of the Irish back-stop, but she wanted a start date for the future trade relationship.

Shortly after the meeting a series of conclusions were reached by EU leaders without May.

It has been reported that one of the crucial draft lines to be removed was “The union stands ready to examine whether any further assurance can be provided”. The line was replaced with the following, “Work on preparedness at all levels for the consequences of the UK’s withdrawal to be intensified, taking into account all possible outcomes”.

European Commission President, Jean Claude Junker stated the following, “We don’t want the UK to think there can be any form of renegotiation, that is crystal clear. We can add clarifications but no real changes. There will be no legally binding obligations imposed on the withdrawal treaty”.

What next for the pound to euro rate?

This is devastating news for the PM and brings us to the next question of what happens next? The House of Commons will not be happy and the vote has already been delayed due to the lack of support for the current Brexit deal.

There are several possible outcomes. A no deal, which would be negative for the pound, a general election which would also potentially be Sterling negative and a second referendum which could cause potential Sterling strength, although I wouldn’t say by much.

The official date for the deal to go through the House of Commons is 14th January but in it’s current status it looks as though there is zero chance of it going through. Jean Claude Junker’s comments also seem to make it clear there will be no amendments.

The Eurozone is currently in no healthy state with the situation in France and Italy, but Brexit continues to be the key factor on pound to euro rates. The pound is fragile, there is little justification for any significant Sterling strength.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor.

If you would like to discuss my latest pound to euro forecast, or would like to talk over your options for a currency transfer I can be contacted directly using the form below:

Sterling weakness: Further falls expected for GBP/AUD exchange rates

Sterling weakness - Further falls expected for GBP/AUD exchange rates

Last night UK Prime Minister Theresa May suffered another blow at the EU summit, and I believe this could be the last nail in the coffin which could force her resignation. The EU humiliated the Prime Minister when they were clear that there will be no further concessions. In addition the EU went on to state that there will be no binding agreements or further legal text.

A wounded Theresa May will now make her way back to the UK and MPs from all parties will want to know Theresa May’s plan B or it’s likely further MPs will call for her resignation. Next week I expect will be the most important week for Theresa May in her reign as Prime Minister so far. One bad move could leave her in ‘check mate’ as she has backed herself into a corner.

Is this the end for Theresa May?

Does Theresa May have a plan B or is it all over for the Prime Minister? This is the question clients buying Australian dollars or selling Australian dollars to buy pounds need to ask themselves. Personally I believe her time is limited as she is not prepared to make any changes to her own red lines (free movement of people) and the EU have made it clear the negotiations appear to be over and Theresa May needs to go back to the UK and convince MPs that this is the only deal on the table.

Therefore looking forward, I expect further uncertainty and the pound to decline against the Australian dollar. For clients that are emigrating to Australia, now is the time to get in touch to discuss your options. If Theresa May does decide to resign as she has no other option, its going to be difficult to decide a new leader of the Conservative Party, and this could force a general election.

In other news Australia will release their latest meeting minutes next Tuesday. The likelihood is that the RBA minutes will confirm that the central bank continue to forecast no change in interest rates and the housing market will be the key concern. This event could potentially cause a spike for Australian dollar buyers.

If you have plans for a Australian dollar transfer I would strongly recommend getting in touch to discuss your position. You can send me a message directly using the form below and I will respond to you personally:

Pound Sterling Forecast: UK trigger vote of no confidence in PM

Will the Pound to Euro rate strengthen ahead of the Brexit meaningful vote next week

In the shadows over the last month rumors have been emerging that a vote of no confidence against Theresa May was on the horizon and this morning Sir Graham Brady of the 1922 Committee has confirmed that 48 letters have been submitted, which will now lead to a leadership contest.

First things first a vote will take place between 6-8pm this evening and the votes will be counted shortly after. The question I will be asked throughout the day is what next and how this could impact sterling v euro exchange rates?

It’s important to note that 48 letters equates to only 15% of the Conservative Party and for her to be ousted over 50% of Conservative MPs will need to vote against her. For Theresa May to win she will need 158 Tory MPs and in my opinion I expect she will receive 158 votes. However if its the case she receives close to 158 that means a large proportion of her Party don’t back her, therefore could her resignation follow?

Sterling has fallen considerably against the euro in recent weeks and I expect this trend to continue throughout the week, even if Theresa May remains Prime Minister for the time being. My reasoning is that the EU have made it clear there will be no further concessions therefore it’s unclear how she will get the vote from the Commons in January.

This morning Theresa May has fired back and made it clear she will fight this vote of no confidence with everything she has got, which has given the pound a small boost against the euro. The reason why the pound hasn’t plummeted in my opinion is because of the falls we have seen in the last couple of weeks and the market had already priced in that a vote of no confidence was on the horizon.

Short term, euro buyer should seriously consider their position within the market. At present it’s very difficult to see how the pound is going to recover. If Theresa May is ousted this will present further uncertainty and therefore I expect GBP/EUR exchange rates to fall.

If you are planning a GBP/EUR transfer in the upcoming weeks, I would recommend getting in touch with me to discuss your situation. You can send me a message directly using the form below and I will respond to you personally:

GBP/EUR Forecast: Pound to Euro Rate Plummets 1.5% on Brexit Vote Delays

GBP/EUR Forecast for Q1 2019

In today’s GBP/EUR forecast we discuss the headline event of this week, the UK Parliament’s meaningful vote on Mrs May’s Brexit EU Withdrawal Bill, has been postponed. The news saw the pound sharply sold off as traders bet that the uncertainty would persist and there is now an increased likelihood of worse news to come.

Sterling to Euro rates hit a 4 month low nudging the 1.10 mark. GBP/EUR opened at 1.1180 before diving to 1.1050 by lunchtime, with a further fall to 1.1011 by mid-afternoon as the House of Commons questioned May on her actions.

Mrs May will now travel to Europe to meet with various leaders in a last-ditch attempt to salvage her deal, mainly to try and get concessions on the Irish backstop issue which has so far been a key issue preventing her from finalising support within her Party.

GBP/EUR Forecast: Plenty more news to come for the pound

Pound to Euro exchange rates will receive plenty more news this week as this situation unfolds, there is an EU Summit on Thursday where Brexit is not directly on the agenda, but may well be discussed.

Sterling looks set to continue to struggle against this negative backdrop of news, we also have a series of economic releases in the UK and the Eurozone to move rates. This morning is the latest UK Unemployment figures, one of the better pieces of news surrounding the UK economy.

Eurozone events that could affect the GBP/EUR forecast

Thursday sees the latest ECB, European Central Bank interest rate decision where market attention will be very much on the ECB and whether or not they will finally stop their Quantitative Easing (QE) program. With plenty of fresh political risks from Spain, Italy and France across the Eurozone, there is a risk of the ECB being more cautious.

Economic news too in the Eurozone has not been ideal, with Germany slowing and many concerned Italy could be headed for a recession. This could all lead to greater concerns for the ECB, which might prevent them from advancing their monetary plans. This would see the Euro weaker should it be the case.

Brexit news the main driver for GBP/EUR rates

The performance of GBP/EUR rates this week and ahead will be largely determined by the next direction on Brexit. There is now an increased possibility of either Mrs May being forced out by her Party or Parliament, an increased chance of a second referendum and also improved prospect of a no-deal.

Sterling will react heavily to the news so clients looking to buy Euros with sterling should be closely monitoring the Brexit and developing situations. It does look likely to be sterling which suffers the most but with the market now appearing to be pricing in worst case scenarios, the potential for a sudden spike upwards, should Theresa May manage to find a way forward, cannot be ruled out.

This is a major week on GBP/EUR exchange rates, the fallout from which may well spread into next week or 2019. The market will eagerly await further news on what to expect with a strong possibility that sterling might at any time move sharply according to a sudden headline or piece of news.

Clients with any GBP/EUR money transfers, to buy or sell might who wish to be kept informed of the latest news and receive updates on this ever-changing market, can please contact me below. I’ll be happy to discuss my GBP/EUR forecast in more detail.

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