Pound vs Euro forecast: A higher probability of a no deal Brexit will result in a weaker Pound

Pound vs Euro forecast: A higher probability of a no deal Brexit will result in a weaker Pound

Pound vs Euro forecast: Boris Johnson’s stance could weaken Sterling

The pound remains weak against the majority of major currencies due to political uncertainty and the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit. At present the UK is in Brexit limbo and we have no Prime Minister. Political and economic uncertainty are catalysts to a currency losing value.

Favourite to gain the role of Prime Minister, Boris Johnson has said he will be willing to take the UK out of the European Union if a deal cannot be reached.

He will attempt to use the threat of a no deal Brexit scenario as ammunition to get an improved deal from Brussels.

Johnson stated the following this week “We are getting ready to come out on 31st October. Come what may. Do or die.”

He has made it clear that he does not wish to go down the route of another extension.

Brussels has stated on several occasions that the deal on the table is the only deal on the table and there will be no renegotiation. This is something that is seemingly being ignored by British members of Parliament.

The general consensus amongst economists is the higher the probability of a no deal the weaker the Pound will become. This does not bode well for Sterling and should you have to sell the Pound short to medium term you may wish to take advantage of current rates.

Will UK GDP data cause Sterling exchange rates to drop

UK GDP figures are released later today and there is expected to be very little change. Year on Year figures are set to remain unchanged at 1.8% and it is a similar situation with month on month set to stay at 0.5%.

I believe the data could land below expectations which could cause Sterling weakness.

If you would like a free quote for buying or selling euros, or would like to discuss exchange rates in more details, please contact me directly using the form below. I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP to CAD forecast: Will the Canadian Dollar continue to strengthen throughout 2019?

Pound to Canadian Dollar Forecast Steady Tone for the Canadian Dollar Ahead of Key Domestic Data Due This Week

In today’s GBP to CAD forecast I discuss why the Canadian Dollar has been going from strength to strength over the past few months. It’s currently no surprise to see that the currency is the strongest performing G10 currency throughout 2019 so far.

GBP to CAD forecast: Rising oil prices and weakening Pound pushing GBP to CAD rates lower

Rising oil prices have aided CAD value which has helped the currency make some impressive gains against the Pound and the US Dollar recently. Some analysts think the currency could continue to strengthen throughout the year, including the Royal Bank of Canada which is the countries biggest lender.

The weakening Pound has helped aid the GBP to CAD exchange rate to fall. The GBP/CAD pair are now trading over 10 cents lower than the annual high, which was in the 1.77’s and took place back in March.

A potential downside for the Canadian Dollar moving forward could be a slowdown within the global economy. This would likely have a negative impact on CAD exchange rates due to CAD being a commodity currency. With the US expected to cut interest rates next month due to these fears I think those readers planning on selling Canadian Dollars soon should be aware of this.

Domestically, the Pound has been relatively flat whilst the Conservative leadership contest continues. It’s likely that the winner will be announced towards the end of next month so we could see the Pound continue to trade within thin ranges until this announcement. This is bad news for Sterling sellers after the Pound lost a lot of value in the second half of May, and has since remained towards these lower levels.

Economic data expected this week

In terms of economic data the next release out of the UK will be tomorrow’s Gross Domestic Product data, which will cover economic output for the UK. 0.5% on a quarterly basis is expected and I would expect to see any dramatic deviations from this potentially cause volatility for the Pound, although the readings are usually very accurate.

Please do send me a message using the form below if you wish to be kept updated on the GBP to CAD forecast, or if you have any questions about exchange rates or how to transfer currency.

Pound Euro forecast and the impact of the Conservative leadership election

Pound to Euro Exchange Rate near 31-Month High, as Tory Majority Remains Likely

Boris vs Jeremy: The affect on the Pound to Euro rate

We have had a very busy end to the week with Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt now the last two candidates in the race for the Tory leadership election. Johnson won the ballot with a total of 160 votes. Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt managed to get 75 votes in total.

We are now just a month away before the next official Tory Prime Minister is announced. The expected date is July 22nd so we may see a lot of movement for GBP/EUR exchange rates during this time. The last two candidates will have to convince the 160,000 Tory members to vote for them. Both candidates have differing opinions on Brexit, but Boris appears to be the bookie’s favourite.

However, although we are getting closer to finding out our new leader the situation surrounding Brexit remains very uncertain. Boris has claimed that the UK will leave the European Union by 31st October and has also suggested no deal. However, although there is still a chance of this happening I think the UK will be left with no choice but to change tact.

Will the EU re-open negotiations?

The news from the EU summit is that the various leaders in Europe have little appetite to change the deal that was offered prior to the 29th March. This was when the original deadline was supposed to be completed. However, it appears very clear that the House of Commons will not approve the current plan. Therefore, with the new Tory leader due to take place in late July I think there is little time left to get a new deal organised. Typically in August Europe will shut down. Therefore, this only leaves two months for the UK to organise a different plan. To me this is simply,  not enough time.

Overall, I expect the pound to continue to struggle against the euro and unless we have some bad news coming from the eurozone in the near future I think we could see further losses coming for sterling.

If you are considering making a currency transaction and would like to find out more, feel free to contact me directly using the form below. I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP/USD rates trading near a 5-month low

GBP to USD rate rises after US Federal Reserve slashes interest rates

No signs of recovery for the pound

Sterling’s recent decline against the USD saw it touch a 5-month low during yesterday’s trading, with the pound showing no signs of staging a sustainable recovery anytime soon.

Whilst GBP has found plenty of support around and above 1.25, this threshold represents something of a bottom line for the pound. If broken, it would push sterling dangerously close to the 30-year lows it was trading at against the greenback, shortly after the Brexit referendum result. GBP/USD rates have been creeping lower for much of 2019, with the Brexit stranglehold severely impacting investors risk appetite for GBP.

It wasn’t long ago that 1.30 represented a benchmark for the pair, with the pound threatening to make a sustainable recovery above this level if the UK had managed to agree an exit deal with the EU. The UK government failure to do that and subsequent fragmentation, has added further instability to an already uncertain situation.

Clients holding GBP will now be hoping that the current bottom line is not breached and that a new Prime Minister, even if that candidate is not necessarily to everyone’s liking, manages to provide a clear mandate and Brexit strategy. This in turn will hopefully boost the markets confidence in the UK’s longer-term economic growth and at the same time free the shackles currently restricting the pound from any sustainable upturn.

Pound to US dollar forecast

Looking at the USD it continues to be well supported by investors. A combination of consistent US economic growth, a safe haven status, and a deteriorating pound have all combined, to help to push the USD up to its current lofty heights.

Whilst the current trend is showing no signs of cooling, it is worth remembering that the current levels offer fantastic value for USD sellers from a historical perspective. Add to this, the US Fed’s tone becoming far more dovish of late and a high change that they will cut interest rates sooner rather than later, and it may be that USD sellers are witnessing levels trading close to their peak under the current market conditions.

If you would like to learn more about the factors affecting current GBP/USD exchange rates, please feel free to contact me directly using the form below. I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound vs Euro exchange rates: Will Boris Johnson sink the pound again?

Pound and Brexit Election Special: How Will the Pound React to the Winter Election?

Boris Johnson has been a colourful figure in many ways, and this is also true of his in influence on sterling in the currency markets. The pound vs Euro exchange rates have never been too steady with Boris around, as was proved when he first came out in favour of Leave back in 2016. How will sterling perform in the weeks ahead with ‘BoJo’ looking likely to be the next UK Prime Minister?

Boris’ refusal to completely rule out a no-deal Brexit is a key factor in the behaviour of sterling with no-deal a key aspect in the market’s assessment of the performance of the British currency. Boris Johnson has proposed various measures if Britain decides to leaves the EU without a deal, with a key aspiration to not rule it out.

This means that, assuming he becomes Conservative leader and the UK PM, which is very likely, sterling could be in for further turbulence. Whilst Boris is not actively seeking a no-deal Brexit alone, and does want to renegotiate with Brussels, the lack of expectation on any lee-way from the EU leads to an increased expectation for a no-deal Brexit on October 31st 2019.

Pound vs Euro forecast: What will help the pound to rise against the Euro?

The news is not all doom and gloom for pound vs Euro rates, the recent weakness on the Euro could still assist those looking to buy Euros.

Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB) hinted yesterday that the Quantitative Easing (QE) program, which weakened the Euro so much in recent years, could be revisited if inflation remained low.

The Bank of England might also offer some support here too. The latest UK interest rate decision is due tomorrow at midday. Any suggestions that UK interest rates might need to be raised in the future could lead to a rise in sterling exchange rates. Although the Bank has not historically been supportive of the uncertainty caused by Brexit, is it likely to view Boris’ approach too favourably.

US Federal Reserve speech could impact EUR/USD rates

To complete the trio of central bank activity, we have the US Federal Reserve speaking tonight. This might well influence movement on EUR/USD exchange rates, which may ‘weigh’ the Euro higher or lower versus the pound.

There is so much going at present to drive pound vs Euro exchange rates as the market remains on tenterhooks to observe clarity on Brexit and central bank activity. For a personal and comprehensive review of your currency plans, please do contact myself, Jonathan, to discuss any currency transfers you might be considering up ahead. You can contact me directly using the form below:

Pound to US Dollar forecast: Best time to sell US Dollars for Pounds in 2019

Pound to US Dollar outlook Could GBPUSD levels slip below 1.20 again?

Best time to buy Sterling with US Dollars

Pound to US dollar exchange rates are at the best time to sell the US dollar all year. The pound has weakened against the greenback on Brexit uncertainties, as investors remain nervous about which direction Brexit taking. The US dollar is also stronger as it appears the euro will remain weak, which has pushed EUR/USD lower.

Investors abandoning Euro

A key factor often on GBP/USD exchange rates is the behaviour on the EUR/USD pairing, as investors seek to abandon the euro with the market predicting further woes ahead for the single currency. Mario Draghi, the President of European Central Bank, has spoken this morning and pointed out that the ECB’s QE program, has ‘considerable headroom’.

QE or Quantitative Easing is a form of monetary policy whereby the central bank seeks to inject liquidity in to the financial system through the purchase of government debt, to help stimulate the economy. After a period of sluggish growth, QE has helped the Eurozone economy to pick up but now with Inflation low again, the ECB might be forced to act once again.

Global tensions affecting Pound to US Dollar rates

This has seen the euro weaker against the US dollar, which has weighed the USD down against the pound. Another factor on the exchange rate is the concerns that have been held over future direction of US monetary policy, with investors initially nervous of the US cutting rates, but now reassured by the fact the Eurozone could be embarking on more easing.

If you have a currency transfer involving the pound and the US dollar, there are a number of global events which are influencing the pairing, as well as the conventional Trade Wars, Trump and Brexit news.

GBP/USD levels sit just above 1.25 on the interbank rate, the lowest since Jan 3rd 2019, if you have a transfer buying or selling and wish for some practical information on appropriate strategy and the best exchange rates, then please do not hesitate to contact me directly.

Pound to Euro forecast: Will Boris become next British Prime Minister

Pound to Euro Rate Hits Another 6-Month High as Markets Await Tonight's TV Debate

Pound continues to slide against the euro

The pound to euro exchange rate continues to fall lower after a poor run for the GBP to EUR pair over these last 5 weeks. Rates for GBP/EUR fell to a low of 1.1141 this morning which represents a 5 month low and which is at least presenting those looking to sell Euros with a great opportunity to convert. The pound has dropped by over 5 cents in these last 5 weeks which means the difference on a £200,000 transfer is about €10,000. The sharp decline in a short time period has made buying euros much more expensive.

Conservative leadership contest vote today

Today sees the second round of voting in the Conservative Party leadership contest which will see another candidate knocked out and possibly more depending on how people vote. Perhaps more interesting will be the televised debate scheduled for this evening in which Boris Johnson will be taking part. All eyes will be on this debate and a good performance will almost certainly help his cause to become the next British Prime Minister. There are hopes from his team that he could be even crowned Prime Minister as soon as this evening depending on his performance and how the vote pans out.

Expect high volatility for GBP/EUR with a new Prime Minister in place as the course of Brexit is likely to change under new leadership. There still remains the prospect of a general election which too could see major currency volatility as this would alter the shape of the House of Commons which could have far reaching implications for Brexit. With such support from within the Conservative Party it is no sunrise that Boris Johnson is so widely tipped to become Prime Minister.

For the moment the prospect that the next Prime Minister will seek to take Britain out of the EU by 31st October with or without a deal is creating some uncertainty for GBP vs EUR exchange rates. Whilst Boris Johnson has made his views clear that Britain must leave the EU he has also said that a no deal Brexit is not his preferred outcome. Those with pending currency requirements would be wise to consider their options as developments unfold around this key political event.

Pound to euro forecast

The euro also faces troubles ahead as the EU economy battles with low inflation and weak growth as it has done for so many years now. The fact that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has signalled the banks intent to reintroduce stimulus measures highlights real concerns for the EU economy as a whole. The US and Britain concluded asset purchasing schemes years ago and the EU’s willingness to explore these avenues could spell trouble for the EU going forward. With Italy in the midst of a debt crisis and the German economy seeing weaker exports and manufacturing the single currency could find itself under considerable pressure in the months ahead especially if US President Donald Trump targets the EU with trade tariffs as he is tipped to do so.

If you would like to ask a question about anything you have read in my pound to euro forecast, or would like to discuss exchange rates, please feel free to contact me directly using the form below. I will respond personally.

Pound to US Dollar exchange rate: Rates weaker before next UK Prime Minister in Office

GBP to USD Rate Maintains Its Upward Trajectory

Conservative leadership contest drives sterling rates

The pound to US dollar exchange rate remains at the lower end of its recent trading range with levels sitting below 1.26 for the GBP vs USD pair. Whilst the Bank of England will meet this Thursday to discuss interest rates the markets are likely to be more interested in the leadership contest for the next British Prime Minister. This is a key moment for the UK as Brexit remains the main driver for GBP to USD exchange rates. The pound is likely to see considerable market reaction from the choices that are made by the next Prime Minister.

The pound has fallen sharply in recent weeks following the resignation of Theresa May leaving a layer of uncertainty over how the Brexit process will now move forward. The favourite Boris Johnson has indicated that he would ensure Britain is out of the EU by 31st October 2019 whilst also leaving the option of a no deal Brexit firmly on the table. As we have seen before in these last few years the prospect of a no deal Brexit leaves sterling on shaky ground with significant short term disruption expected.

Bank of England interest rate decision

The Bank of England are expected to hold interest rates at current levels although any commentary from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney could see the pound react. The Bank of England have produced some gloomy forecasts in the event of a no deal and the central bank will likely have something further to say about this prospect as we approach 31st October. Mark Carney has the ability to cause market reaction and as the Brexit debate intensifies in these months ahead of the latest deadline of October 31st so too will commentary from the Bank of England leaving a volatile period ahead for pound to US dollar exchange rates.

US Fed to cut interest rates?

The US dollar meanwhile retains its status as a safe haven currency which has seen the dollar soar higher in recent weeks. The US Federal Reserve has signalled its intention to cut interest rates as the uncertainty surrounding the US China trade war continues. With tensions running high between the US and China and an expectation that more trade wars could be seen across other borders investors continue to favour the US dollar. Any further escalation in the trade war will likely be seen as negative for the global economy with more trade barriers in place.

If you have an upcoming currency exchange and would like to learn more about the factors that may affecting rates, please feel free to contact me directly using the link below. I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound to Euro Forecast – Leadership Contest Drives GBP/EUR Rate Lower

Pound to Euro Forecast - Leadership Contest Drives GBP/EUR Rate Lower

The pound to Euro exchange rate continues to test the lower levels with rates falling to a five month low for the GBP/EUR rate.

Whilst this is welcome news for those looking to sell Euros, those that wish to buy Euros are struggling to see much hope for a rally with the ongoing Brexit and political uncertainty. The Conservative leadership contest for the next Prime Minister continues and front runner Boris Johnson will commence his campaign today.

Boris Johnson puts “no deal” Brexit on the table

Boris Johnson has promised that the UK will leave the EU by the 31st June deadline with or without a deal. The return of “no deal” to the table is what is putting pressure on GBP exchange rates.

Labour looking to prevent no deal Brexit

The Labour party will today table a cross party motion to try and prevent a no deal Brexit from ever happening which could have some bearing on the direction of travel for the pound to Euro exchange rate.

The motion appears to have cross party support from all of the other parties and if successful will likely give the Government and any future leader a headache as the options of Brexit are whittled down. The move could even force a general election adding another layer of uncertainty for the pound vs Euro exchange rate. The prospect of a no deal exit from the EU continues to be the major driver for pound to Euro rates with considerable market reaction being seen on the back of Brexit related headlines. As we await confirmation of the next British Prime Minister there is likely to be high volatility for GBP/EUR rates in the run up to the event.

Those looking to sell Euros may wish to consider taking advantage of the attractive rates although there may be more room for EUR/GBP rates to improve further. With little optimism for a deal being reached on Brexit the pound is likely to remain tested.

Will the Euro go down against the Pound?

The Euro could also be in for a rough ride ahead after the European Central Bank met last week and signalled its intent to cut interest rates if required and re-introduce another round of bond purchases to help avoid a global recession. Although ECB President Mario Draghi said that the EU will avoid a recession in 2019, he did make clear that interest rates are likely to be cut. Such a move would likely result in Euro weakness.

If you would like to ask a question about anything you have read in my pound to Euro forecast, or would like to discuss exchange rates, please feel free to contact me directly using the form below. I will respond personally.

Pound to Dollar Forecast Weakens after Poor UK GDP

Pound to Dollar Forecast Weakens after Poor UK GDP

Today’s pound sterling to dollar forecast looks at what is affecting the GBP/USD exchange rate. The pound to dollar exchange rate remains on a weaker footing after weaker UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers disappointed the markets yesterday. UK GDP contracted by -0.4% putting pressure on an already weak pound as concerns are raised over the UK economy. The decline in car production appears to be having a negative impact on the growth outlook, and whilst Brexit is no doubt causing some of the uncertainty it is true however that the car industry is struggling globally.

Conservative leadership contest affecting pound to dollar forecast

There is much focus being placed on the Conservative leadership contest taking place in British politics over these next few weeks. The direction of travel for GBP to USD will likely be impacted by who the next British Prime Minister will be. The favourite by some way in the race to become leader is Boris Johnson who has stated that he will take Britain out of the EU by 31st October with or without a deal.

The reality is that under new leadership a cleaner break from the EU could be pursued and so far the markets are seeing this as negative for the pound as the prospect of a no deal Brexit returns to the table. More candidates start their campaigns today including Andrea Leadsom who is pushing for a “managed no deal” Brexit.

US Dollar forecast

In the US the markets were surprised by significantly weaker jobs data last Friday. This has raised question marks over the health of the US economy. US non-farm payrolls saw just £75k new jobs being created which has immediately put pressure on the US Federal Reserve to consider taking more immediate action on its monetary policy. The US Fed signalled last week that it was open to cutting US interest rates lower and such a move may help stimulate growth at this time when needed.

US / China trade talks at a standstill

US / China trade talks meanwhile continue to remain deadlocked and President Trump has warned that he is prepared to raise tariffs again if Chinese President Xi Jinping doesn’t meet with him at the Osaka G20 summit. The Japan summit had been earmarked as the time to get a deal over the line but the rhetoric to date is putting this into question.

A trade deal or a fully blown global trade war will have consequences for both dollar exchange rates and all of the major currencies and any developments will continue to be major drivers for the pound to dollar exchange rate.

If you would like to discuss pound to dollar exchange rates or have a currency transfer you would like help with, please feel free to contact me directly using the form below and I will respond personally.

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