Sterling falls on Weaker Inflation – GBPEUR Rates Slide Below 1.15

The pound has fallen from its recent 11 month high against the Euro with levels for GBP EUR falling back below 1.15. UK inflation data released earlier today arrived weaker than expected at 2.3% from March against an expected 2.5%. The small drop lower saw an instant fall in the price of sterling against all of the major currencies as the markets adjust their expectations of that next interest rate hike from the Bank of England. The central bank have been widely expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% at the next meeting in May although these weaker numbers will now be considered and this may take the pressure off the Bank of England from taking action next month.

If the Bank decides to postpone an interest rate increase then this is likely to see the pound fall lower. Retail sales number released tomorrow are also likely to impact on the price of sterling especially as spending on the high street has reportedly slowed down of late. A weak number tomorrow morning is inly likely to reinforce the view that the Bank of England will not seek to raise rates too soon and risk an economic slowdown with weaker consumer spending due to higher interest rates.

Clients looking to buy Euros and buy dollars may wish to consider securing at what are close to 11 month highs ate present.
Brexit has not been as newsworthy of later during the Easter recess although things could change very quickly on that front. The third round of the negotiations started today outlining the structure of the talks for the future trading relationship between Britain and the EU. I would expect to considerable market volatility on developments here especially when it comes to the Irish border and financial services.

The fact of the matter is that the UK services sector comprises almost 80% of the British economy. What strikes me is that the Chancellor Philip Hammond has stated in the past that if the final deal does not include financial services then there won’t be a deal. With the EU stating that it is not possible to include financial services it would suggest that the prospect of a no deal scenario is still very much on the table. Any talk of this outcome in my view would be negative for sterling in the short term as a result of uncertainty for business and the economy.

To discuss your own requirement and how these events have a direct impact on personal currency transfers then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling exchange rates start the week on the front foot (Daniel Wright)

Pound to Dollar forecast: Sterling continues to decline against the US Dollar

Sterling found rare form in trading today as we saw gains for the Pound against all major currencies.

A huge GBP/JPY transaction in early morning trading and the positive news regarding jobs at Tata steel led to Sterling starting the day off on the front foot and that trend generally continued throughout the trading day.

This bought a great opportunity for those looking to buy foreign currency after what has been a fairly dire few weeks for Sterling against pretty much every currency.

Will Sterling strength continue this week?

The main question now is will Sterling continue to gain ground this week and the answer may lie in how inflation levels come out for the U.K tomorrow morning. As I mentioned in my post on Saturday the Pound really needs a catalyst to give it some strength and if inflation has risen then this may be the catalyst we are looking for. Inflation is one of the key factors that will impact an interest rate decision and although there is no doubt we will not see rate movements anytime soon a rise inflation will still be taken as positive.

On Thursday we have the Bank of England Interest rate decision, meeting minutes and monetary policy summary. This is the sort of data release that can lead to sharp volatility as surprises can pop up in the minutes from the meeting. Investors and speculators will sift through them with a fine toothed comb looking for signs for what the next BOE move may be.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Sterling Exchange Rates Fall from Recent Peak

Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast: European data disappoints, Sterling makes minor gains as inflation creeps above 2%

The pound has fallen lower today after that excellent run last week which saw sterling surge across the board after the transitional deal in the Brexit negotiations was agreed. Rates for GBP EUR have fallen to a low of 1.1365 today whilst GBP USD touched 1.4066 before climbing higher in afternoon trade.

Whilst a transitional deal has been officially agreed between Britain and the EU, there are still some very big issues which need resolving. Whilst I am of the opinion these issues will be ironed out and agreement should eventually be made there is likely to be an ongoing period of uncertainty whilst the third round of negotiations take place. Talks on the Irish border started yesterday and any developments in the coming weeks coudfl see major volatility for the pound.

The outlook for the pound in the medium term is looking considerably brighter and there could be sizeable gains for sterling exchange rates if negotiations go well. It is in the short term in these coming weeks and months though which should see heightened volatility and continued pressure on the pound. Clients looking to sell Euros for example may wish to convert in this period whilst the pound remains in a weaker position. In my view the pound is unlikely to remain at these weaker levels indefinitely. With higher interest rates in the UK around the corner with an expected rate increase this May the pound should find support and start to drive higher.

Clients looking to buy other currencies such as US dollars or buying Australian dollars with pounds should keep a very close eye on developments from the US. Whilst the US Fed is looking to raise interest rates two or three times this year which should be good for the dollar it is the other developments on trade which are particularly interesting for the markets. The recent tariffs imposed on steel and aluminium as well as the other round of tariffs on imported goods are liked to have wider implications on a number of the other currencies including the Aussie dollar in particular.

For more information on sterling exchange rates and how to make the most of any opportunities in the markets then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Supreme Court and Article 50 uncertainty causes Sterling weakness Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates have continued to fall since yesterday afternoon as the positive gains following the Italian referendum seem to have disappeared.

The focus will now turn to the ongoing discussions with the Brexit discussion and the current court case involving the Supreme Court.

Prime Minister Theresa May agreed yesterday that she will publish her plan about how the UK will leave the European Union but the timing of the release is as of yet unclear.

It appears as though Theresa May has had her hand forced by Labour who wanted to see what the plan is in order to proceed with Article 50.

Labour would like the plan to be published by January which may coincide with the judgment made by the Supreme Court.

The next potential for volatility for Sterling vs the Euro will come on Thursday when the European Central Bank meet to discuss their latest interest rate decision.

The ECB have been really struggling to control falling inflation recently and their current Quantitative Easing programme does not appear to have had the desired effect.

Therefore, I think even if the central bank does not change the current QE programme any hints that more easing could come could potentially see Sterling make some gains vs the Euro.

The NIESR publishes it latest set of GDP data for the three months up until November at 3pm today and although this data is not the official release it is usually fairly accurate and therefore often has a big impact on exchange rates.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you better exchange rates than by using your bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds. 

If you have a currency requirement and would like to save money when buying currency then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

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Sterling Exchange rate update and what we can offer!!

Sterling exchange rates have had a very mixed day. The pound recently hit a two month high against the USD hitting just over 1.60. Against the Euro before the interest rate decision the pound hit a low of 1.1359 levels that we have not seen for months. This was on the back of some bad data out of the UK housing market.

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European Debt Summit latest – Euro strengthens once again!Investors still seem content that everything is going in to this to save the Euro…

Personally I just cannot believe we continue to see the Euro gather strength, I have seen all sorts of comments today like the Eurozone is like a patient post a major operation and will still need intense help for the recovery along with 24 hour care… that was my favourite!

The general feeling right now is that investors are feeling comforted that everything including the kitchen sink has been thrown into a solution but my opinion is just what do they do next when this doesn’t work?.. surely they are completely up sh*t creek without a paddle and this whole thing is really going to blow up.

The Euro may hold firm in the short term due to Chinese buying, general investment and the halo that currently somehow is staying above it, however I feel we are now looking at Europe carrying out a major plate spinning excercise – sooner or later one of the plates will fall and we all know the Greeks love to smash plates!

If you have a pending transfer and really would like to know just what is happening and why, along with ensuring you get the very best rate of exchange you can for your transfer contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk or call me during office hours on +44  (0)1494 787 462 I will be more than happy to help. Media quotes are also welcome just feel free to get in touch.

GDP figures key this week – Euro weakness today following general concerns and poor PMI data this morning

The Pound has had a mixed start to the week so far, Making gains against the Euro, Australian Dollar and a host of other currencies whilst dropping against the Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc.

It is a mixed market at the moment and really hard to call, GDP ( Gross Domestic Product) figures are key this week and we see this data out for Germany tomorrow morning, the U.K on Wednesday and the States on Thursday afternoon. GDP measures how much an economy has grown or shrunk over a period of time. These particular releases are revisions from the first quarter of 2011, and any changes to what has been predicted or was released originally could well lead to a lot of volatility.

Certainly worth keeping a close eye on the three and it sets us up to have an interesting week, we also have public sector net borrowing out for the U.K tomorrow morning at 09:30am which is bound to give us some talking points… watch this space for the effects that the releases do have.

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Pound may surge in trading tomorrow morning if BOE minutes give a nod towards a rate hike (Daniel Wright)

Pound to US Dollar rates influenced by political uncertainty in the UK

Sterling exchange rates have the potential to creep up over the course of trading tomorrow morning as we have both the Bank of England minutes and the inflation report.

Interestingly enough the BOE are due to change the amount of meetings they have from 12 to 8 which I found out yesterday.

The key really will be how many members of the BOE voted in favour of an interest rate hike, should we have even one more member now in favour of a hike in rates then Sterling may rise off of the back of it as an interest rate hike is generally seen as extremely positive for the currency concerned.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out either now or in the future then it is well worth getting in touch with me personally. I can help you not only get a great rate of exchange but also with the timing of your transaction. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally to speak to you.

UK GDP Figures Positive for the UK Economy (Matthew Vassallo)

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

It’s been a busy morning for the currency markets following the release of the latest UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Figures showed that the UK economy grew by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2014, which marked the fifth consecutive period of positive growth for the UK economy. GDP is seen as key in determining the relative health of a countries economic growth and the improvement the UK has seen over the past twelve months are there for all to see.

However, it was not all good news for the UK and the Pound as figures actually came out slightly worse than the expected 0.9% growth. This seems to have stifled the Pound during Tuesday morning trading, with GBP/EUR and GBP/USD rates looking very flat. Despite no further spikes for Sterling it continues to perform well against both its EUR & US counterparts, with rates sitting above 1.21 and 1.68 respectively. Personally I expect GBP to hold its position against both in the short-term as pressure on the ECB increases to counter the threat of deflation to the region, which would have serious negative connotations for the Eurozone were it to happen. Whilst the EUR has found a lot of support around the current levels, any hint of a further rates cut by the ECB, or further economic difficulties in France, are likely to push the Pound through the current resistance barrier.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currnecies.co.uk.

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