Theresa May cancels Parliament vote – Will we have a no deal Brexit?

Volatile period ahead for Pound vs Euro with Brexit just three months away

Today has been a wild day on the markets following news that UK Prime Minister Theresa May had decided to cancel the Parliamentary vote on Brexit. This bought down the value of the Pound and at the time of writing this update Prime Minister May is answering some fairly intense questioning at the House of Commons. The Pound to Euro exchange rate is currently sat at 1.105, a drop from the rate of 1.113 we saw on Friday.

Things do not look good for the Prime Minister and I would expect her position to come under severe pressure in the coming days. This political uncertainty may also weigh heavily on the Pound too.

Where we head next with Brexit is hard to predict, but the chance of a no deal Brexit has now increased and because of this the Pound is getting weaker. I personally would not be surprised to see further political uncertainty as the week progresses.

If you have foreign currency to purchase or you have a requirement to bring foreign currency back into Pounds then it is well worth getting in contact with us for the very latest market movements and to make sure you are getting the most for your money. You can contact me directly using the form below, I’ll be happy to answer any questions you may have on the impact of the latest Brexit news on Pound to Euro rates.

Pound to Euro forecast – How will the Brexit vote impact exchange rates?

GBP to CAD forecast: Brexit continues to be the key factor

The Pound to Euro forecast is for volatility next week. Pound to Euro exchange rates have been trading in a relatively tight range during the course of this week as the foreign exchange markets appear to be eagerly anticipating what may happen next week when MPs will vote on the current Brexit plan on offer.

At the moment it appears as though Therea May does not have the support that she needs to approve this current Brexit deal and I think whatever happens next week with the vote will be crucial in determining the future of the Pound to Euro exchange rate.

With such uncertainty surrounding what may happen next week if the vote does not go through, this could cause further losses for the Pound against the Euro and as we saw with the original referendum back in June 2016 with a 10% fall on Pound to Euro rates a precedent of huge movement in a single day has been set.

Rumours are circulating that Theresa May could fall well short and some Tories have proposed that the deadline of the vote should even be delayed.

With the chances of a ‘no deal’ Brexit increasing this is causing problems for Sterling against a number of different currencies including against the Euro so it may be worth getting things organised prior to the vote next week to avoid any potential pitfalls.

Theresa May has today sent out 30 MPs in order to convince others to vote in support of the current Brexit deal as if things remain the same then this vote could go very badly for the Prime Minister next week.

Pressure off the Euro as French protests end

Turning the focus back towards the continent, the Euro has started to strengthen after the fuel tax problems in France have stopped at least for the time being.

Emmanuel Macron has announced that the rise in fuel tax has been suspended for 6 months and this has helped the Euro to regain some of its recent losses against both the US Dollar and the Pound. In the last fortnight the French leader was coming under immense pressure with riots in Paris and many blockades across France so with things now a lot calmer this has come as welcome news for the Euro.

With such a big vote next week, if you’re in the process of buying Euros and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly using the form below and I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP/AUD Forecast: Will GBP/AUD rate rise or fall going into 2019?

US-China Trade War could have significant implications on AUD

Our latest GBP/AUD forecast looks at the month ahead for the Pound to Australian dollar rate. The Australian dollar weakness that has seen over 5 cents movement in a week from 1.72 to over 1.77 could be a flavour of the kind of volatility that we can now expect in the weeks ahead as we approach some key pieces of news in the currency markets.

GBP/AUD Forecast: Brexit and trade Wars key drivers for GBP/AUD rates

The key factor is of course Brexit which I will discuss later. However, this more recent movement stems from the news on Trade Wars with Australian GDP, Gross Domestic Product and other concerns around US-China trade concerns. Whilst this more immediate movement has been tempered now and GBP/AUD rates are in the 1.76s, the next week or two could see increased volatility.

The end of this week we are expecting the US Non-Farm Payroll data which can influence more global factors driving exchange rates. Clients tracking GBP/AUD rates could see some movement on the pair once this news is released at 13.30 on Friday. US economic data drives the Aussie because of the way news from the United States can influence global attitudes to risk.

The Australian dollar acts as a key barometer of global attitudes to risk and trade. It will rise and fall according to how financial markets are viewing the latest news. US-China trade wars are a major factor on this, as they influence attitudes to risk and sentiment.

The recent cooling in negative sentiment towards the trade wars had seen the Australian dollar rise and the quick turnaround on the rates highlights just how important it is to make plans in advance if considering a large GBP/AUD exchange in such a volatile market.

December 11th a key date for GBP/AUD rates

Tuesday is the key date on this pair next week with the UK’s Parliamentary vote, this will likely trigger a big move on the GBP/AUD pairing according to how it comes across. Most forecasts have sterling losing value from a no vote since this opens up all manner of potentially negative outcomes for the UK and the pound.

These include Mrs May resigning or being forced out, the possibility of a second referendum or even a general election. It does feel like the pound could be the biggest loser next week, although making predictions on such volatile events as the Brexit and Trade Wars is difficult. The politicians involved cannot make up their minds so how can you, the market or I accurately say what will happen?

If you have a position to buy or sell GBP/AUD then please feel free to make further contact to discuss your options and the market. These events will likely set the pace for 2019 so it is well worth being ahead of the curve and making plans now, rather than leaving it all to the last minute and being caught out.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

To discuss the upcoming Brexit vote, and how it’s likely to impact GBP/AUD rates please get in touch using the form below. I’ll be happy to get in touch personally and discuss your requirements.

Should I buy Canadian dollars now?

Should I buy Canadian dollars now?

Its been a tough couple of days for the Canadian dollar vs Sterling so should you buy Canadian dollars now? Yesterday the Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold at 1.75% and thereafter provided an extremely dovish statement which was a surprise to the markets.

The Central Bank stated that a sharp fall in oil prices, which will likely to have an impact on economic growth was the main concern, and the trade war between the US and China is still a concern for global growth.

Is now the best time to buy Canadian dollars?

Now that Sterling vs Canadian dollar has risen from the mid 1.60s back above 1.70, the question my clients need to ask themselves is will the Canadian dollar continue to devalue or should they take advantage of the spike in the market and buy Canadian dollars now?

Personally I believe this is a spike that is worth taking advantage of, if clients need to purchase Canadian dollars with Sterling. Across the Atlantic, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to persuade MPs to back her Brexit plan.

Reports are suggesting that she could lose the vote on the 11th December by over 100 votes and this could cause major problems for the PM. If she loses by that kind of amount I believe her position comes untenable and we would see a resignation or she will be ousted by her own Party.

A real concern for Brits moving to Canada or Brits that buy Canadian exports is the commentary coming from the Bank of England. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has warned, if the UK come crashing out of the EU without a deal, house prices could crash by a third, GDP could fall 8% and exchange rates could fall 25%.

I’m confident that MPs are taking the Bank of England’s advice on board and therefore I do not fear that the UK will crash out of the EU, nevertheless the uncertainty of the deal not going through on the 11th December is a growing concern.

If you hold Sterling at present and are planning a move to Canada short term, you need to ask yourself the question now, are you prepared to take the gamble and wait until after the vote on the 11th? If she fails to get a deal over the line I believe GBP/CAD rates will fall towards the lower 1.60s and remain there for months to come.

For more information about when might be the best time to buy Canadian dollars or to discuss GBP/CAD rates in more detail feel free to drop me a message using the form below:

GBP to CAD forecast: Brexit uncertainty continues to hit Sterling

GBP to CAD forecast: Brexit uncertainty continues to hit Sterling

Brexit continues to hurt the Pound

In this GBP to CAD forecast we look at the events that could impact the pound to swiss franc rates in the short-term. The GBP/CAD rate continues to be dictated by Brexit. The current situation is bleak and it does not bode well for the Pound. Theresa May’s current Brexit deal is due to be voted on by Parliament on 11th December. The PM’s proposal has come under heavy criticism and at present it looks as though the deal will not go through at it’s first attempt.

If this is the case we could see an attempt to oust Theresa May by the Labour Party. This would no doubt cause further pound weakness. Another scenario is the deal not being voted through and there will be amendments made before going to a second vote.

GBP to CAD forecast

I am afraid there is very little reason to be positive about Sterling at present and I believe we could be set for further losses against the Canadian Dollar.

Alberta set to cut Oil production

Alberta’s regional Government have announced this week that it will require local oil companies to reduce oil production by 8.7 % during 2019, the equivalent to 325,000 barrels a day. This is a clear attempt to bring up the value of crude oil, one of Canada’s largest exports. The heavy reliance on oil means that oil price has a bearing over Canadian Dollar value. This decision could also undermine the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) outlook and cause Canadian dollar weakness.

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

On Wednesday we will witness the BoC’s interest rate decision. I would be surprised to see any change from the current 1.75%. The BoC rate statement could be of interest however.This is often an opportunity for BoC embers to give investors a introspective on to their thoughts on monetary policy moving forward. This does have the power to influence the markets so keep an eye on events as they unfold.

I believe the Brexit situation will outweigh any oil related troubles from Canada so if you have to move short term it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted directly using the form below:

GBP to AUD forecast: Australian Economy Continues to Show Improvement

GBP to AUD forecast: Australian Economy Continues to Show Improvement

The AUD has performed well against GBP of late, gaining approximately four cents during the past week. To put this in monetary terms, that is the equivalent of an additional £2,500 on a £200,000 AUD to GBP currency exchange.

The reason for this fluctuation in GBP to AUD rates is likely to be linked more to a sell-off of GBP positions, than an influx into the AUD by investors. It seems investors are becoming increasingly concerned that UK MPs will vote down UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the EU, in the House of Commons vote on December 11th.

Whilst the PM can call a second vote, any rejection of the Brexit deal is likely to put further pressure on Sterling, which could help boost the AUD’s value further.

It wasn’t long ago that the Pound was making inroads towards 1.80 but a shift in market conditions has boosted the AUD, which now looks far more likely that it will put pressure on the 1.70 resistance level, as investors confidence in the UK economy and ultimately the Pound continues to evaporate.

Australian interest rates kept on hold

Looking at the Australian economy and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold at 1.5% once again, citing problems in the property down under as their primary reason not to raise rates. In fact, the RBA have kept rates on hold for a record 28 months in succession, last cutting rates in August 2016. They have not hiked rates in over 8 years, which highlights the current stance of the RBA and of the relative stagnation of the Australian economy.

However, is the RBA’s stance about to change? According to the central bank’s governor Philip Low it may not be long until they raise rates once again, as long as the Australian economy continues along “the same path”.

Any continued cooling of US President Donald Trump’s trade stand-off with China could also assist the AUD, which will likely find additional support by any upturn in the Chinese economy due to the two countries trade links.

Feel free to get in touch using the form below if you’d like to know more about my GBP to AUD forecast, I’ll be happy to get back in touch personally.

Pound to Euro Rates after British Legal Position Explained

GBP/EUR Alert - Will the pound fall dramatically next week?

Pound to Euro rates has come under further pressure this week ahead of the meaningful vote in Parliament on the 11th of December. Attorney General Geoffrey Cox made a statement in the House of Commons yesterday and made it clear that Britain would not be able to leave the backstop unilaterally. The confirmation in stark black and white only helps to paint a picture that the Brexit deal agreed so far in its current form is unlikely to find enough support in the British Parliament. As such there is more risk to the downside for Pound to Euro rates and there could be further weakness for the pair.

There has been much controversy over whether the Government should publish the full legal advice it has been given with regards the backstop and the wider implications. A vote will be held today in Parliament after a debate on whether the Government must publish the text or not. Rates for GBP EUR are likely to react as there are some suspicions that the text contains further difficulties for Britain if the Irish backstop is used. Aside from that the Government will commence the first day of debates on the withdrawal agreement and political declaration. The meaningful vote will dictate the next part of how Brexit proceeds and major Pound to Euro volatility is expected at this time.

Brexit can be cancelled

Another twist in the Brexit situation is that the European Court of Justice has ruled this morning that the UK can unilaterally cancel its withdrawal from the EU in effect cancelling Brexit if it was so desired.

Euro rates under pressure

Euro exchange rates have come under pressure as the French fuel protests and riots have dominated the headlines creating some uncertainty for President Macron. Although the French President appears to be offering some compromise the ‘gilets jaunes’ are reported to have significant support in France and this could create more political uncertainty in France which should keep the pressure on Euro rates.

The Italian political stalemate is also creating some uncertainty for Pound to Euro rates. Italy are still insisting on pursuing expanding Government spending in the 2019 budget although there has been a reported climb down after Italy has on occasion signalled that they would be prepared to make changes to the current plan.

For more news on Pound to Euro rates or if you would like to talk about an upcoming currency transfer please send me a message using the form below and I will respond to your personally:

GBP to USD forecast: Rates gain ahead of Brexit legal advice expected today

Key week for GBPUSD exchanges: Will GBPUSD get back over 1.30?

In today’s GBP to USD forecast we look ahead at the events that could impact rates in the coming days. Pound to US dollar exchange rates have started the week on a higher note ahead of an important week in British politics over Brexit. GBP to USD rates have moved higher, to 1.28. The pound to dollar rate remains extremely volatile and susceptible to Brexit developments. A key meaningful vote on the withdrawal agreement will be held on 11th December and will then set off a chain of events if Prime Minister Theresa May is unable to find the support she needs in Parliament.

Parliament backing for Brexit deal looks unlikely

At present it looks highly unlikely that Theresa May will be able to push this vote through, with so many politicians having stated publicly that they will not back her Brexit deal. If she loses the vote the Government will immediately step up no deal planning and there are a number of different outcomes that then follow. There could be a second vote on the deal within two weeks, but there could also be a change of Prime Minister should Theresa May resign or if there was a vote of no confidence. Whilst the no deal option is a possible outcome which would be seen as negative for the GBP to USD rate, there is also some momentum for a Norway type deal which could change the direction for the pound.

Brexit legal advice expected today

Today will see the British Attorney General Geoffrey Cox make a statement on the legal advice that he has previously given to Cabinet. There is much controversy over what he will in fact actually offer to Parliament today and there have been a number of calls for the full Brexit legal advice to be published. The contentious issue surrounds the Irish backstop which would continue indefinitely and Britain would not have the final say to withdraw from it. Expect political fireworks after he speaks as there could be wider implications for the pound.

USD forecast

Although there has been a small reduction in US Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter the US economy is still proving robust which is helping to support the dollar. It is starting to look like the US Federal Reserve may now slow its rate hike cycle with a pause expected in 2019. The dollar has also weakened slightly following the G20 summit. Any new trade tariffs will be paused for 90 days to allow for more talks. Expect more movement for US dollar rates as trade negotiations continue.

For more news on GBP to USD rates or if you would like to talk about an upcoming currency exchange please send me a message using the form below and I will respond to your personally:

Pound to Euro Rates: Brexit Impact Papers Cause Pound Sell-Off

Pound to Euro Rates: Brexit Impact Papers Cause Pound Sell-Off

Pound to Euro rates have fallen this morning, with the Pound falling by over half cent since the opening of European trading.

The Pound’s sharp drop seems to be a direct result of a various Brexit impact papers, which were released yesterday. These made for fairly grim reading, with the Treasury’s findings indicating that regardless of which version of Brexit we ultimately get, they will all have some type of negative impact on the UK economy.

Could Pound to Euro rates reach parity?

The Bank of England (BoE) also published its own Brexit assessment, which was even more damaging in terms of the potential impact Brexit would have, not on the UK economy but ultimately the Pound’s value. They suggested that a worst case scenario could see the Pound lose over 25% of its value. If this did occur then the Pound would sit at less than parity against both the Euro and the US Dollar.

Whilst there is a feeling that the BoE may have their own agenda when releasing such statistics, it is clear that our impending Brexit from the single bloc is likely to put some type of pressure on the UK economy and ultimately the Pound, at least in the short-term.

How aggressive any downturn is likely to be is now the question investors will be asking themselves and whether the Pound can find any type of protection as the Brexit saga rumbles on.

The outlook for the Euro

The Euro itself has also felt the strain over recent weeks, as economic concerns in Italy and the longer-term impact of Brexit continue to weigh heavily on investors. The Euro would likely have dropped against the Pound had it not been for investors’ current lack of confidence in Sterling.

Personally, if I had an upcoming Pound to Euro currency exchange requirement I would be very tempted to protect my currency position where feasible.

There is certainly a possibility that UK Prime Minister will fail to gain enough Parliamentary support to push the current Brexit deal though and the then very real prospect of a no-deal Brexit scenario could put the Pound under severe pressure over the coming weeks and beyond.

To discuss the events that could affect current GBP/EUR rates please use the form below to get in touch. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your queries.

UK Parliamentary vote to influence Pound vs Australian Dollar rates

GBP to AUD forecast: US and China reported to have fallen out again over trade negotiations

Pound vs Australian Dollar rates have continued to fall during the course of this week as the uncertainty of what will happen next with the Brexit issue continues to negatively influence Sterling exchange rates.

Mark Carney offers gloomy outlook for disorderly Brexit scenario

The Bank of England suggested yesterday that the Pound could fall by as much as 25% in the event of a no deal Brexit and whilst this claim appears to be very bold the uncertainty as we saw with the Brexit vote back in June 2016 caused a huge movement for Sterling, so a precedent of a big fall in a very short period of time has already been set.

With one of the biggest votes in British history (the Brexit vote in Parliament) is set to take place on December 11th. It is important to be prepared for what could be a very volatile period for Pound vs Australian Dollar rates.

The UK Parliament will vote on the proposed Brexit deal which has been agreed between the UK and the European Union so if the deal does not get agreed we could see a huge amount of uncertainty ahead for the UK and therefore Sterling vs the Australian Dollar.

There are a number of different scenarios if the deal is not voted through. A second vote in the House of Commons could take place which would aim to change the current deal and go back to the European Union to see if amendments can be made. A vote of no confidence could occur which means the Tories would need to find a new leader. This would mean that 48 letters would need to be written to the 1922 backbench committee and at the moment this has not gained enough momentum.

Some have even called for a second referendum but Theresa May has insisted on a number of occasions that under her stewardship this would not take place.

With so much uncertainty in the run up to the end of the year any positive outlook for Pound vs Australian Dollar rates looks very limited. If you’re considering buying Australian Dollars in the next few weeks it may be worth getting things organised prior to the vote in Parliament on 11th December.

If you would like more information about the Pound vs Australian Dollar outlook, or would like to discuss currency exchange in more detail please feel free to send me a message using the form below and I respond to you personally:

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