Sterling weakness: Further falls expected for GBP/AUD exchange rates

GBP to AUD forecast: Further problems for the Australian dollar against sterling

Last night UK Prime Minister Theresa May suffered another blow at the EU summit, and I believe this could be the last nail in the coffin which could force her resignation. The EU humiliated the Prime Minister when they were clear that there will be no further concessions. In addition the EU went on to state that there will be no binding agreements or further legal text.

A wounded Theresa May will now make her way back to the UK and MPs from all parties will want to know Theresa May’s plan B or it’s likely further MPs will call for her resignation. Next week I expect will be the most important week for Theresa May in her reign as Prime Minister so far. One bad move could leave her in ‘check mate’ as she has backed herself into a corner.

Is this the end for Theresa May?

Does Theresa May have a plan B or is it all over for the Prime Minister? This is the question clients buying Australian dollars or selling Australian dollars to buy pounds need to ask themselves. Personally I believe her time is limited as she is not prepared to make any changes to her own red lines (free movement of people) and the EU have made it clear the negotiations appear to be over and Theresa May needs to go back to the UK and convince MPs that this is the only deal on the table.

Therefore looking forward, I expect further uncertainty and the pound to decline against the Australian dollar. For clients that are emigrating to Australia, now is the time to get in touch to discuss your options. If Theresa May does decide to resign as she has no other option, its going to be difficult to decide a new leader of the Conservative Party, and this could force a general election.

In other news Australia will release their latest meeting minutes next Tuesday. The likelihood is that the RBA minutes will confirm that the central bank continue to forecast no change in interest rates and the housing market will be the key concern. This event could potentially cause a spike for Australian dollar buyers.

If you have plans for a Australian dollar transfer I would strongly recommend getting in touch to discuss your position. You can send me a message directly using the form below and I will respond to you personally:

Pound Sterling Forecast: UK trigger vote of no confidence in PM

GBP to CAD forecast: All eyes on tomorrow's key vote on the Brexit deal

In the shadows over the last month rumors have been emerging that a vote of no confidence against Theresa May was on the horizon and this morning Sir Graham Brady of the 1922 Committee has confirmed that 48 letters have been submitted, which will now lead to a leadership contest.

First things first a vote will take place between 6-8pm this evening and the votes will be counted shortly after. The question I will be asked throughout the day is what next and how this could impact sterling v euro exchange rates?

It’s important to note that 48 letters equates to only 15% of the Conservative Party and for her to be ousted over 50% of Conservative MPs will need to vote against her. For Theresa May to win she will need 158 Tory MPs and in my opinion I expect she will receive 158 votes. However if its the case she receives close to 158 that means a large proportion of her Party don’t back her, therefore could her resignation follow?

Sterling has fallen considerably against the euro in recent weeks and I expect this trend to continue throughout the week, even if Theresa May remains Prime Minister for the time being. My reasoning is that the EU have made it clear there will be no further concessions therefore it’s unclear how she will get the vote from the Commons in January.

This morning Theresa May has fired back and made it clear she will fight this vote of no confidence with everything she has got, which has given the pound a small boost against the euro. The reason why the pound hasn’t plummeted in my opinion is because of the falls we have seen in the last couple of weeks and the market had already priced in that a vote of no confidence was on the horizon.

Short term, euro buyer should seriously consider their position within the market. At present it’s very difficult to see how the pound is going to recover. If Theresa May is ousted this will present further uncertainty and therefore I expect GBP/EUR exchange rates to fall.

If you are planning a GBP/EUR transfer in the upcoming weeks, I would recommend getting in touch with me to discuss your situation. You can send me a message directly using the form below and I will respond to you personally:

GBP/EUR Forecast: Pound to Euro Rate Plummets 1.5% on Brexit Vote Delays

Pound Sterling Strength: Sterling Making Impressive Gains Against the Euro

In today’s GBP/EUR forecast we discuss the headline event of this week, the UK Parliament’s meaningful vote on Mrs May’s Brexit EU Withdrawal Bill, has been postponed. The news saw the pound sharply sold off as traders bet that the uncertainty would persist and there is now an increased likelihood of worse news to come.

Sterling to Euro rates hit a 4 month low nudging the 1.10 mark. GBP/EUR opened at 1.1180 before diving to 1.1050 by lunchtime, with a further fall to 1.1011 by mid-afternoon as the House of Commons questioned May on her actions.

Mrs May will now travel to Europe to meet with various leaders in a last-ditch attempt to salvage her deal, mainly to try and get concessions on the Irish backstop issue which has so far been a key issue preventing her from finalising support within her Party.

GBP/EUR Forecast: Plenty more news to come for the pound

Pound to Euro exchange rates will receive plenty more news this week as this situation unfolds, there is an EU Summit on Thursday where Brexit is not directly on the agenda, but may well be discussed.

Sterling looks set to continue to struggle against this negative backdrop of news, we also have a series of economic releases in the UK and the Eurozone to move rates. This morning is the latest UK Unemployment figures, one of the better pieces of news surrounding the UK economy.

Eurozone events that could affect the GBP/EUR forecast

Thursday sees the latest ECB, European Central Bank interest rate decision where market attention will be very much on the ECB and whether or not they will finally stop their Quantitative Easing (QE) program. With plenty of fresh political risks from Spain, Italy and France across the Eurozone, there is a risk of the ECB being more cautious.

Economic news too in the Eurozone has not been ideal, with Germany slowing and many concerned Italy could be headed for a recession. This could all lead to greater concerns for the ECB, which might prevent them from advancing their monetary plans. This would see the Euro weaker should it be the case.

Brexit news the main driver for GBP/EUR rates

The performance of GBP/EUR rates this week and ahead will be largely determined by the next direction on Brexit. There is now an increased possibility of either Mrs May being forced out by her Party or Parliament, an increased chance of a second referendum and also improved prospect of a no-deal.

Sterling will react heavily to the news so clients looking to buy Euros with sterling should be closely monitoring the Brexit and developing situations. It does look likely to be sterling which suffers the most but with the market now appearing to be pricing in worst case scenarios, the potential for a sudden spike upwards, should Theresa May manage to find a way forward, cannot be ruled out.

This is a major week on GBP/EUR exchange rates, the fallout from which may well spread into next week or 2019. The market will eagerly await further news on what to expect with a strong possibility that sterling might at any time move sharply according to a sudden headline or piece of news.

Clients with any GBP/EUR money transfers, to buy or sell might who wish to be kept informed of the latest news and receive updates on this ever-changing market, can please contact me below. I’ll be happy to discuss my GBP/EUR forecast in more detail.

Theresa May cancels Parliament vote – Will we have a no deal Brexit?

Pound to Euro Forecast: Will GBP/EUR rates continue to rise?

Today has been a wild day on the markets following news that UK Prime Minister Theresa May had decided to cancel the Parliamentary vote on Brexit. This bought down the value of the Pound and at the time of writing this update Prime Minister May is answering some fairly intense questioning at the House of Commons. The Pound to Euro exchange rate is currently sat at 1.105, a drop from the rate of 1.113 we saw on Friday.

Things do not look good for the Prime Minister and I would expect her position to come under severe pressure in the coming days. This political uncertainty may also weigh heavily on the Pound too.

Where we head next with Brexit is hard to predict, but the chance of a no deal Brexit has now increased and because of this the Pound is getting weaker. I personally would not be surprised to see further political uncertainty as the week progresses.

If you have foreign currency to purchase or you have a requirement to bring foreign currency back into Pounds then it is well worth getting in contact with us for the very latest market movements and to make sure you are getting the most for your money. You can contact me directly using the form below, I’ll be happy to answer any questions you may have on the impact of the latest Brexit news on Pound to Euro rates.

Pound to Euro forecast – How will the Brexit vote impact exchange rates?

GBP to CAD forecast: Brexit continues to be the key factor

The Pound to Euro forecast is for volatility next week. Pound to Euro exchange rates have been trading in a relatively tight range during the course of this week as the foreign exchange markets appear to be eagerly anticipating what may happen next week when MPs will vote on the current Brexit plan on offer.

At the moment it appears as though Therea May does not have the support that she needs to approve this current Brexit deal and I think whatever happens next week with the vote will be crucial in determining the future of the Pound to Euro exchange rate.

With such uncertainty surrounding what may happen next week if the vote does not go through, this could cause further losses for the Pound against the Euro and as we saw with the original referendum back in June 2016 with a 10% fall on Pound to Euro rates a precedent of huge movement in a single day has been set.

Rumours are circulating that Theresa May could fall well short and some Tories have proposed that the deadline of the vote should even be delayed.

With the chances of a ‘no deal’ Brexit increasing this is causing problems for Sterling against a number of different currencies including against the Euro so it may be worth getting things organised prior to the vote next week to avoid any potential pitfalls.

Theresa May has today sent out 30 MPs in order to convince others to vote in support of the current Brexit deal as if things remain the same then this vote could go very badly for the Prime Minister next week.

Pressure off the Euro as French protests end

Turning the focus back towards the continent, the Euro has started to strengthen after the fuel tax problems in France have stopped at least for the time being.

Emmanuel Macron has announced that the rise in fuel tax has been suspended for 6 months and this has helped the Euro to regain some of its recent losses against both the US Dollar and the Pound. In the last fortnight the French leader was coming under immense pressure with riots in Paris and many blockades across France so with things now a lot calmer this has come as welcome news for the Euro.

With such a big vote next week, if you’re in the process of buying Euros and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly using the form below and I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP/AUD Forecast: Will GBP/AUD rate rise or fall going into 2019?

Will Brexit be delayed and the impact on the Pound against the Australian Dollar?

Our latest GBP/AUD forecast looks at the month ahead for the Pound to Australian dollar rate. The Australian dollar weakness that has seen over 5 cents movement in a week from 1.72 to over 1.77 could be a flavour of the kind of volatility that we can now expect in the weeks ahead as we approach some key pieces of news in the currency markets.

GBP/AUD Forecast: Brexit and trade Wars key drivers for GBP/AUD rates

The key factor is of course Brexit which I will discuss later. However, this more recent movement stems from the news on Trade Wars with Australian GDP, Gross Domestic Product and other concerns around US-China trade concerns. Whilst this more immediate movement has been tempered now and GBP/AUD rates are in the 1.76s, the next week or two could see increased volatility.

The end of this week we are expecting the US Non-Farm Payroll data which can influence more global factors driving exchange rates. Clients tracking GBP/AUD rates could see some movement on the pair once this news is released at 13.30 on Friday. US economic data drives the Aussie because of the way news from the United States can influence global attitudes to risk.

The Australian dollar acts as a key barometer of global attitudes to risk and trade. It will rise and fall according to how financial markets are viewing the latest news. US-China trade wars are a major factor on this, as they influence attitudes to risk and sentiment.

The recent cooling in negative sentiment towards the trade wars had seen the Australian dollar rise and the quick turnaround on the rates highlights just how important it is to make plans in advance if considering a large GBP/AUD exchange in such a volatile market.

December 11th a key date for GBP/AUD rates

Tuesday is the key date on this pair next week with the UK’s Parliamentary vote, this will likely trigger a big move on the GBP/AUD pairing according to how it comes across. Most forecasts have sterling losing value from a no vote since this opens up all manner of potentially negative outcomes for the UK and the pound.

These include Mrs May resigning or being forced out, the possibility of a second referendum or even a general election. It does feel like the pound could be the biggest loser next week, although making predictions on such volatile events as the Brexit and Trade Wars is difficult. The politicians involved cannot make up their minds so how can you, the market or I accurately say what will happen?

If you have a position to buy or sell GBP/AUD then please feel free to make further contact to discuss your options and the market. These events will likely set the pace for 2019 so it is well worth being ahead of the curve and making plans now, rather than leaving it all to the last minute and being caught out.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

To discuss the upcoming Brexit vote, and how it’s likely to impact GBP/AUD rates please get in touch using the form below. I’ll be happy to get in touch personally and discuss your requirements.

Should I buy Canadian dollars now?

GBP to CAD Rates Slip after Strong Week

Its been a tough couple of days for the Canadian dollar vs Sterling so should you buy Canadian dollars now? Yesterday the Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold at 1.75% and thereafter provided an extremely dovish statement which was a surprise to the markets.

The Central Bank stated that a sharp fall in oil prices, which will likely to have an impact on economic growth was the main concern, and the trade war between the US and China is still a concern for global growth.

Is now the best time to buy Canadian dollars?

Now that Sterling vs Canadian dollar has risen from the mid 1.60s back above 1.70, the question my clients need to ask themselves is will the Canadian dollar continue to devalue or should they take advantage of the spike in the market and buy Canadian dollars now?

Personally I believe this is a spike that is worth taking advantage of, if clients need to purchase Canadian dollars with Sterling. Across the Atlantic, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to persuade MPs to back her Brexit plan.

Reports are suggesting that she could lose the vote on the 11th December by over 100 votes and this could cause major problems for the PM. If she loses by that kind of amount I believe her position comes untenable and we would see a resignation or she will be ousted by her own Party.

A real concern for Brits moving to Canada or Brits that buy Canadian exports is the commentary coming from the Bank of England. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has warned, if the UK come crashing out of the EU without a deal, house prices could crash by a third, GDP could fall 8% and exchange rates could fall 25%.

I’m confident that MPs are taking the Bank of England’s advice on board and therefore I do not fear that the UK will crash out of the EU, nevertheless the uncertainty of the deal not going through on the 11th December is a growing concern.

If you hold Sterling at present and are planning a move to Canada short term, you need to ask yourself the question now, are you prepared to take the gamble and wait until after the vote on the 11th? If she fails to get a deal over the line I believe GBP/CAD rates will fall towards the lower 1.60s and remain there for months to come.

For more information about when might be the best time to buy Canadian dollars or to discuss GBP/CAD rates in more detail feel free to drop me a message using the form below:

GBP to CAD forecast: Brexit uncertainty continues to hit Sterling

Pound to Euro forecast: Will recession concerns weaken the Euro or is Brexit still the main exchange rate driver?

Brexit continues to hurt the Pound

In this GBP to CAD forecast we look at the events that could impact the pound to swiss franc rates in the short-term. The GBP/CAD rate continues to be dictated by Brexit. The current situation is bleak and it does not bode well for the Pound. Theresa May’s current Brexit deal is due to be voted on by Parliament on 11th December. The PM’s proposal has come under heavy criticism and at present it looks as though the deal will not go through at it’s first attempt.

If this is the case we could see an attempt to oust Theresa May by the Labour Party. This would no doubt cause further pound weakness. Another scenario is the deal not being voted through and there will be amendments made before going to a second vote.

GBP to CAD forecast

I am afraid there is very little reason to be positive about Sterling at present and I believe we could be set for further losses against the Canadian Dollar.

Alberta set to cut Oil production

Alberta’s regional Government have announced this week that it will require local oil companies to reduce oil production by 8.7 % during 2019, the equivalent to 325,000 barrels a day. This is a clear attempt to bring up the value of crude oil, one of Canada’s largest exports. The heavy reliance on oil means that oil price has a bearing over Canadian Dollar value. This decision could also undermine the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) outlook and cause Canadian dollar weakness.

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

On Wednesday we will witness the BoC’s interest rate decision. I would be surprised to see any change from the current 1.75%. The BoC rate statement could be of interest however.This is often an opportunity for BoC embers to give investors a introspective on to their thoughts on monetary policy moving forward. This does have the power to influence the markets so keep an eye on events as they unfold.

I believe the Brexit situation will outweigh any oil related troubles from Canada so if you have to move short term it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted directly using the form below:

GBP to AUD forecast: Australian Economy Continues to Show Improvement

GBP to AUD forecast: Australian Economy Continues to Show Improvement

The AUD has performed well against GBP of late, gaining approximately four cents during the past week. To put this in monetary terms, that is the equivalent of an additional £2,500 on a £200,000 AUD to GBP currency exchange.

The reason for this fluctuation in GBP to AUD rates is likely to be linked more to a sell-off of GBP positions, than an influx into the AUD by investors. It seems investors are becoming increasingly concerned that UK MPs will vote down UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the EU, in the House of Commons vote on December 11th.

Whilst the PM can call a second vote, any rejection of the Brexit deal is likely to put further pressure on Sterling, which could help boost the AUD’s value further.

It wasn’t long ago that the Pound was making inroads towards 1.80 but a shift in market conditions has boosted the AUD, which now looks far more likely that it will put pressure on the 1.70 resistance level, as investors confidence in the UK economy and ultimately the Pound continues to evaporate.

Australian interest rates kept on hold

Looking at the Australian economy and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold at 1.5% once again, citing problems in the property down under as their primary reason not to raise rates. In fact, the RBA have kept rates on hold for a record 28 months in succession, last cutting rates in August 2016. They have not hiked rates in over 8 years, which highlights the current stance of the RBA and of the relative stagnation of the Australian economy.

However, is the RBA’s stance about to change? According to the central bank’s governor Philip Low it may not be long until they raise rates once again, as long as the Australian economy continues along “the same path”.

Any continued cooling of US President Donald Trump’s trade stand-off with China could also assist the AUD, which will likely find additional support by any upturn in the Chinese economy due to the two countries trade links.

Feel free to get in touch using the form below if you’d like to know more about my GBP to AUD forecast, I’ll be happy to get back in touch personally.

Pound to Euro Rates after British Legal Position Explained

GBPEUR increases to a 20 month high

Pound to Euro rates has come under further pressure this week ahead of the meaningful vote in Parliament on the 11th of December. Attorney General Geoffrey Cox made a statement in the House of Commons yesterday and made it clear that Britain would not be able to leave the backstop unilaterally. The confirmation in stark black and white only helps to paint a picture that the Brexit deal agreed so far in its current form is unlikely to find enough support in the British Parliament. As such there is more risk to the downside for Pound to Euro rates and there could be further weakness for the pair.

There has been much controversy over whether the Government should publish the full legal advice it has been given with regards the backstop and the wider implications. A vote will be held today in Parliament after a debate on whether the Government must publish the text or not. Rates for GBP EUR are likely to react as there are some suspicions that the text contains further difficulties for Britain if the Irish backstop is used. Aside from that the Government will commence the first day of debates on the withdrawal agreement and political declaration. The meaningful vote will dictate the next part of how Brexit proceeds and major Pound to Euro volatility is expected at this time.

Brexit can be cancelled

Another twist in the Brexit situation is that the European Court of Justice has ruled this morning that the UK can unilaterally cancel its withdrawal from the EU in effect cancelling Brexit if it was so desired.

Euro rates under pressure

Euro exchange rates have come under pressure as the French fuel protests and riots have dominated the headlines creating some uncertainty for President Macron. Although the French President appears to be offering some compromise the ‘gilets jaunes’ are reported to have significant support in France and this could create more political uncertainty in France which should keep the pressure on Euro rates.

The Italian political stalemate is also creating some uncertainty for Pound to Euro rates. Italy are still insisting on pursuing expanding Government spending in the 2019 budget although there has been a reported climb down after Italy has on occasion signalled that they would be prepared to make changes to the current plan.

For more news on Pound to Euro rates or if you would like to talk about an upcoming currency transfer please send me a message using the form below and I will respond to your personally:

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