Pound to Dollar Forecast Weakens after Poor UK GDP

Pound to Dollar Forecast Weakens after Poor UK GDP

Today’s pound sterling to dollar forecast looks at what is affecting the GBP/USD exchange rate. The pound to dollar exchange rate remains on a weaker footing after weaker UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers disappointed the markets yesterday. UK GDP contracted by -0.4% putting pressure on an already weak pound as concerns are raised over the UK economy. The decline in car production appears to be having a negative impact on the growth outlook, and whilst Brexit is no doubt causing some of the uncertainty it is true however that the car industry is struggling globally.

Conservative leadership contest affecting pound to dollar forecast

There is much focus being placed on the Conservative leadership contest taking place in British politics over these next few weeks. The direction of travel for GBP to USD will likely be impacted by who the next British Prime Minister will be. The favourite by some way in the race to become leader is Boris Johnson who has stated that he will take Britain out of the EU by 31st October with or without a deal.

The reality is that under new leadership a cleaner break from the EU could be pursued and so far the markets are seeing this as negative for the pound as the prospect of a no deal Brexit returns to the table. More candidates start their campaigns today including Andrea Leadsom who is pushing for a “managed no deal” Brexit.

US Dollar forecast

In the US the markets were surprised by significantly weaker jobs data last Friday. This has raised question marks over the health of the US economy. US non-farm payrolls saw just £75k new jobs being created which has immediately put pressure on the US Federal Reserve to consider taking more immediate action on its monetary policy. The US Fed signalled last week that it was open to cutting US interest rates lower and such a move may help stimulate growth at this time when needed.

US / China trade talks at a standstill

US / China trade talks meanwhile continue to remain deadlocked and President Trump has warned that he is prepared to raise tariffs again if Chinese President Xi Jinping doesn’t meet with him at the Osaka G20 summit. The Japan summit had been earmarked as the time to get a deal over the line but the rhetoric to date is putting this into question.

A trade deal or a fully blown global trade war will have consequences for both dollar exchange rates and all of the major currencies and any developments will continue to be major drivers for the pound to dollar exchange rate.

If you would like to discuss pound to dollar exchange rates or have a currency transfer you would like help with, please feel free to contact me directly using the form below and I will respond personally.

Pound to Euro forecast: Will the Pound continue to fall against the Euro?

GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review May 28th

Pound struggles to recover from recent lows against the euro

Over the last 5 weeks the pound has gradually lost value against the euro. Mid-market exchange rates at the beginning of May were trading as high as 1.1775 and currently mid-market exchange rates have dropped to 1.1210 at the time of writing this article. Unfortunately for euro buyers this means a €200,000 purchase is now costing an additional £8,500, however for clients selling euros to buy pounds this has provided a fantastic opportunity.

UK politics main driver for GBP/EUR rates

Looking ahead UK politics is going to drive pound to euro exchange rates. Already this week MPs including the likes of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson have highlighted potential policies they would put in place if they become Prime Minister. Currently the Times are suggesting that 59 Conservative MPs are backing Boris Johnson and 32 Conservative MPs are backing Michal Gove and Jeremy Hunt. Furthermore, it looks like we will see a Brexiteer take over No10 and that’s why I believe the GBP/EUR rate is performing so poorly. It doesn’t matter who takes over at No10 they will not have the power to crash the UK out of the EU as they will need Parliamentary approval, however the approach will be very different than Theresa May’s which could force the UK out of the EU by default come the end of October. All eyes now turn to Thursday and the first round of voting.

Key UK economic data releases

In regards to economic data this week, tomorrow the UK release their latest Unemployment rate and average earnings numbers. UK GDP fell by 0.4% in April showing a slowdown in the UK economy, therefore the numbers released tomorrow will be watched closely by investors. Further poor figures from the UK could push the pound lower against the euro. The other important data release to look out for is President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi’s speech on Wednesday morning. Mr Draghi has the ability to cause major currency fluctuations with his commentary, therefore keep a close eye on this release.

If you would like information in regards to the Brexit saga and how the Tory leadership contest impacts pound to euro exchange rates, feel free to fill in the form below.

Pound vs Euro rates: Conservative leadership contest and impact on GBP/EUR rates

GBP EUR Stuck in Range at 1.1700 Level

Pound vs Euro rates: The Pound has been trading in a very tight range versus the Euro this week. It appears as though the markets are adopting a wait and see approach. Theresa May is due to step down today but will remain until the Conservative Party find a new leader.

This could still take a number of weeks with 11 candidates still in the frame. There were previously 13 but James Cleverly and Kit Malthouse have stood down since. At the moment Brexiteer Boris Johnson appears to be the leading contender. However, at this early stage it is too difficult to predict who will win the leadership contest.

Whoever wins the leadership content should give us some direction as to which way Brexit may go next. This could have a big impact on GBP/EUR exchange rates depending on who leads the country going forward.

The 1922 committee, who had previously put pressure on Theresa May to step down, appear to be changing the length of time for the leadership contest. This means that candidates will need the support of 8 MPs rather than 2. Then they will need 16 in the first ballot and 32 in the following ballot.

Will Brexit be delayed? How could this impact Pound vs Euro rates

Michael Gove has claimed that he would delay Brexit if he comes in to power. He has made these claims as he thinks he can get a better deal if we do not rush things. He also thinks by making a rash decision this could lead the country in to a general election. If so, this could possibly give Jeremy Corbyn the opportunity to gain power, something that the Conservative Party clearly do not want to happen.

With little economic data due out in the UK today the focus will remain on the political landscape in the UK. Clearly there is a huge amount of uncertainty and this is weighing heavily on Pound vs Euro rates.

We could have further developments over the weekend so make sure you’re well prepared for further uncertainty surrounding Pound Euro exchange rates.

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Euros, or would like to discuss anything you have read in my Pound to Euro forecast, then please contact me directly using the form below. I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound to Canadian dollar forecast: Impact of UK politics on GBP/CAD rates

GBPCAD Rates: Lack of Faith in the Pound Highlighted by Oil Crisis?

What has caused pound to Canadian dollar rates to weaken?

The Canadian dollar has been improving against the pound recently owing to a number of different reasons. If we look closely at the Canadian dollar it has felt the benefit of an interest rate cut expectation south of the border in the US. This has seen a sell off for the US dollar and investors have chosen to move funds into the Canadian dollar. GBP/CAD exchange rates have now fallen below 1.70 and I think we they could still have further to fall.

UK politics causes pound vs Canadian dollar exchange rates to move

The UK’s political landscape is in tatters at the moment. With Theresa May having announced her resignation recently the search is now on for a new Tory leader. At the moment a total of 13 names are in the hat. It is still unclear as to who may be the leader and we may not find out until the end of July. This is likely to add pressure on to an already unsettled sterling so we could see further losses ahead.

What does appear to be the case is that a number of the potential leaders are pro-Brexit. This may mean that the pound could go either way once a victor has been announced. It could mean that a Brexit deal could be more likely, which could help the Pound as it may provide more certainty. However, on the flip side it could move us closer towards a no deal Brexit which could result in a problem for Sterling.

If you’re in the process of buying Canadian dollars it may be worth getting this organised in the short term. I think we could see further problems ahead especially whilst the leadership election takes place.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Canadian dollars and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound to Australian dollar rate hits a 5-week low, could a move below 1.80 be on the horizon?

GBP AUD Rallies Ahead of Westpac Consumer Data

The pound has been under pressure throughout this month, after testing year highs on the 3rd of May.

Pound to Australian dollar rate forecast

The outlook regarding Brexit is now looking a lot bleaker with current Prime Minister May set to step down in the first half of next month, with the chances of a Pro-Brexit leader likely to take her place which many believe could increase the chances of a no-deal Brexit.

Ever since cross party talks broke down pound to Australian dollar rates have fallen, with the GBP/EUR pair also falling for a record 13-consecutive days during this month and therefore hitting the headlines for the wrong reasons from the pound’s point of view.

Reserve Bank of Australia, is a potential interest rate cut on the horizon?

There has been some disappointing economic data released out of Australia recently and the chances of an interest rate cut have increased so there could be weakness for the Aussie dollar on the horizon should this materialise. Despite this, GBP/AUD has been falling but those of our readers hoping for a stronger AUD should be aware of developments overnight out of the US. With the Australian economy being dependent on a thriving global market the latest announcement from US President Donald Trump could weigh on the AUD, as he has announced intentions to impose a 5% Tariff on all goods imported into the US from Mexico.

This will of course put strain on the new North American Free Trade Agreement which was written up last year, and also the global economy which is why we’ve seen a sharp sell-off in global equity markets since the announcement.

There are no data releases out of Australia until next week now, and feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss them. Domestically, we have Mortgage Approvals and Consumer Credit figures to be releases shortly, do feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss an upcoming currency transfer with me.

Pound close to 4 months lows vs the euro owing to political landscape

GBP EUR Slumps Despite UK Rates Lift-Off

The pound to euro rate is now trading close to its lowest level in four months.

British politics and the impact on the pound to euro rate

There are a number of reasons for the pound’s recent demise against the euro. The European elections have highlighted a problem with British politics and this has negatively impacted sterling exchange rates. It appears that the voting public are divided on the subject of Brexit and as of yet neither the Tories nor Labour have offered a clear path. According to some bookies there is a 7/2 chance of a second referendum which demonstrates that there is an increasing appetite for this to happen.

It is clear that the current plan is not working so could a second referendum be one of the only options left to break the impasse?

Pound to euro forecast

I would not be surprised to see further losses for GBP/EUR in the near future. The Tories are about to start a leadership campaign. Currently, there are 11 candidates, so the future is still very uncertain. Boris Johnson appears to be the favourite, but nothing is certain in politics at the moment, this is why I think we’ll continue to see the pound struggle against the euro.

Economic data to influence pound to euro exchange rates

We could see a busy end to the week with the pound to euro exchange rates owing to economic data due out tomorrow. We begin with UK housing data in the UK with mortgage approvals for April. The housing market has been impacted by the uncertainty of Brexit so I think we could see the data show a fall. If this happens I would expect to see the pound drop against the euro.

This Friday will see the release of German inflation data. As Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, it is often used as a barometer of the Eurozone’s economy. If we see a drop this could negatively impact the Euro against the Pound. Therefore, expect to see some movement both ways during tomorrow’s trading session

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling euros, then contact me directly using the form below. I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound to US dollar forecast: Best time in 4 months to sell USD for GBP

GBP USD Exchange Rate: The Week Ahead April 18th

The pound to US dollar rate has dropped following a stronger dollar being able to capitalise on the weakness of sterling.

Why is the pound to US dollar rate so weak?

It is of no surprise why the pound has been so weak, following a very tough time after the European elections. The US dollar however has been a little tougher to assess since the trade wars have broken down and on the face of it, many might expect the US dollar to be losing value.

Ultimately, the suggestions of a slower global economy will negatively impact the US economy, and this is already being shown in the data. Later today is the latest US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data which might well influence US dollar exchange rates. A lower interest rate is paradoxically being seen as a benefit to the US economy and the currency at present, since it is indicative that perhaps the US economy will carry on for longer.

Pound to US dollar rate forecast

With the US offering much higher interest rates compared to the rest of the world’s leading economies, the potential for the US dollar to remain attractive seems quite high. Pound to US dollar rates have remained marooned under the 1.30 handle for a few weeks now and it is difficult to raise a case for a quick return above this important level.

Expectations ahead centre around the possibility of who will be the next Tory leader and who will take the lead in the Brexit negotiations. It seems that a top requirement for any possible candidate in the Conservative Party has to be a backing (or not ruling out) of no-deal.

This factor alone should keep sterling under pressure with a rising dollar looking quite merciless in continuing the dominance it has displayed in recent years. If you are looking to exchange GBP/USD then please feel free to contact me directly to discuss the latest news and market sentiments.

GBP under pressure as Brexit progress stalls

GBPEUR Bounces on the Day with Limited Data Due

Pound to euro rates seem to have settled around the current level, with today’s range of 1.1328-1.1344 indicative of the stagnation we’ve seen on the pair of late.

Pound loses value against the euro after an eventful weekend

The pound saw its value dip following events over the weekend, with the ensuing fallout from the European election results likely to dominate headlines over the coming days.

The markets may have already factored in UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s announcement of her resignation timeline on Friday, but the decimation for the UK’s two main political parties in the European elections, is unlikely to have been fully factored into the current market value on GBP/EUR.

Pound to euro forecast

In truth, the pound has been fairly resilient throughout these major political events, holding its value against the euro with only a small sell-off following the final votes being counted over the weekend. Whether this trend continues is now the key question for investors, but recent history indicates GBP should continue to find a level of support around the current levels.

The markets have remained range-bound over a prolonged period with the pound finding plenty of support around the 1.13 level but has failed to make any significant and more importantly sustainable inroads above 1.15, since the breakdown in cross-party Brexit talks.

British politics weigh on pound to euro rate

With the Conservatives party having to enter a leadership contest and Brexit talks once again at an impasse, the uncertainty which has engulfed the UK economy and restricted the pound, is likely to continue in the foreseeable future.

Talk of another general election and even a possible second referendum add another facet to proceedings, so clients hoping for a return to the recent highs of 1.16/1.17 against the EUR may be left disappointed, unless of course there is a major shift in market conditions.

If you are looking to exchange either pounds or euros and would like to learn more on the factors affecting current exchange rates, please feel free to contact me directly using the form below.

Pound to euro rate forecast: How will the pound to euro rate react for the rest of this week?

GBP USD Exchange Rate Edges Away From 21-Month Lows

The pound to euro rate has been volatile as investors react to the results of the all-important European elections which took place over the weekend.

European elections, the impact on the pound to euro rate

Investors are still digesting the news but essentially, all the predicted ‘shifts’ in electoral behaviour rang true. There was a noticeable shift in the make up of the European Parliament which has seen the euro fractionally weaken. Also, the rise of the Brexit party has seen sterling weaken too.

Looking forward, the GBP/EUR exchange rate seems destined to be dictated by politics for the foreseeable future, as investors seek to better understand what lies ahead. And there is plenty to discuss, with the prospect of a general election, second referendum and potentially even a Scottish independence vote again too.

Pound to euro forecast

The outlook for the political situation seems destined to remain very unclear with the Conservative Party leader election getting underway with now ten candidates having thrown their hats into the ring.

I expect sterling will remain on the backfoot as investors seek to assess where the fortunes for the UK government will turn next, the resignation from Mrs May has removed one uncertainty but created plenty more.

The euro too looks like it will struggle with the more extreme parties gaining traction, this could present many opportunities for euro buyers, if sterling can capitalise. There has been a fear that the more extreme parties would be capitalising on the recent malaise in European politics but so far this has not manifested itself as much as many had feared.

Clients with a transfer to buy or sell euros against pounds will find volatility ahead on both sides of the channel, I would not be surprised to see the pound lose more ground depending on what the outcomes are from the Conservative Party leadership contest.

If you have a transfer to consider and wish to learn more, please do not hesitate to contact me Jonathan Watson to discuss further.

Pound euro at three month lows after Theresa May announces resignation

Pound to Euro Falls as Further COVID Restrictions Announced

Pound under pressure after Theresa May resigns

The pound to euro rate has once again endured a difficult week. GBP/EUR exchange rates are now trading at their lowest level in 3 months. The pound has struggled owing to the political uncertainty at the moment after Theresa May announced her resignation on Friday. She has given herself two weeks to leave, after which
the process of electing the next Tory leader will begin.

Two of the front runners for job are Boris Johnson and Andrea Leadsom, both of whom are pro-Brexit.

Will a pro-Brexit PM weaken the pound to euro rate?

There could be potential problems for sterling exchange rates as a pro-Brexit PM could increase the risks of a no deal Brexit. Although a no deal Brexit is extremely unlikely, there is still a possibility of it happening. Therefore, a pro-Brexit PM could cause problems for the pound vs the euro.

Whatever the outcome, the next two weeks pound to euro rates are likely to see a lot of volatility. Therefore, if you’re thinking of making a currency transfer involving the GBP/EUR pair then it may be worth getting this organised early next week.

Will Brexit happen?

If the new Prime Minister manages to somehow galvanise the Tory party and be able to make progress with the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, then this could give the pound a real boost.

However, I think since December it has become very clear that the House of Commons is not in favour of Brexit. The original deadline of 29th March is now well and truly behind us and I cannot see much changing in terms of getting a deal agreed.

The next big issue for the pound vs the euro is the potential of a general election in the next few months.

An election often brings with it a great deal of uncertainty and this does not bode well for the pound. Therefore, if you’re considering buying euros for a foreign property in the weeks ahead it may be worth considering buying a forward contract, which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

To find out more or if you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

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