GBP/EUR falls from poor UK GDP figures (Joshua Privett)

Sterling has fallen against most of its currency pairings, most significantly for GBP/EUR and GBP/USD pairings from lower than expected GDP figures for the UK economy.

The figure was the preliminary estimate for how much the UK economy grew during the third quarter of 2015. It was already expected that the figure would come in lower than the second quarter, but even this conservative estimate turned out to be a boast that the UK economy could not match. Instead of the 0.7% growth recorded in the second quarter, this fell to 0.5% and now yearly growth has been downgraded to 2.3%. As a comparison, growth in 2014 was above 3%.

Frankly, I’m surprised that markets have only ticked down by half a cent on GBP/EUR with the news.

The fact that growth slowed down this much even with record retail sales figures recorded in the UK economy thanks to the Rugby World Cup -which is coming to a close this weekend- suggests that the slowdown in the British economy is more serious than the data suggests. When North American markets open to the news this afternoon, they may be more concerned and I would be surprised if Sterling did not weaken further off the back of this.

In any case it seems very unlikely that Sterling will make any further gains today. The fact that markets have given a muted reaction to the news suggests that these current buying levels for GBP/EUR and GBP/USD are a gift.

I strongly suggest that anyone with Euros to buy before the end of the year should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception for Joshua to discuss a strategy to maximise the Euro return on your transfer, and receive a competitive quote for your exchange. I have never had a problem beating the rates offered elsewhere, and even if you do not require currency until next year, these current levels can be pegged to avoid any chance of the market moving further against your favour. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Super Thursday to have major influence on sterling exchange rates

Today the Bank of England are set to release their latest interest rate decision, quarterly inflation report followed by a speech by Governor Mark Carney. Only 2-3 weeks ago many forecasters were suggesting it was extremely likely a hike would occur today, however with a recent flurry of disappointing economic data releases (Retail Sales, inflation and GDP) the chances of a rate hike of diminished.

Before an event speculators second guess the decision and therefore buy and sell the pound which impacts the value of the currency. With the pound overall losing value over the last 2 weeks, even though the pound has started well this week,  I believe speculators have sold off the pound in anticipation that a hike wont occur. Therefore the decision itself could be a disappointment leaving the markets fairly flat, however Governor Mark Carney’s speech is something all clients converting pounds should keep a close eye on.

For people that are buying or selling a large amount of pounds for the first time, possibly for a property purchase abroad, it’s important to understand that the Governor of the Bank of England’s stance has the potential to have a major influence on exchange rates. My personal opinion is that this event wont be positive for the pound. I believe the Governor will keep his cards close to his chest and continue to state Brexit developments will impact monetary policy, therefore a hike is likely for this year but wont give any timescales.

If you are buying a foreign currency short term, the currency company I work for has been operating for 18 years and offers fantastic exchange rates. If you would like a free quote feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk. If you would like to go ahead there after, it will take you 5 minutes to register and I should be able to buy currency on your behalf shortly after.

For clients selling a foreign currency to buy the pound, it’s important to analyse the other currency that you are trading. For example, if I had US dollars, there is a strong argument to see how far the dollar will strengthen before trading, where as if I had Australian dollars, the commodity based currency is struggling due to global events therefore I would actually sell sooner rather than later.

Sterling Rallies – Will This Trend Continue? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

Sterling has rallied against most of the major currencies of late but the key question now is whether this trend will continue?

Despite the recent improvement I do feel that the on-going saga surrounding the UK’s upcoming Brexit will continue to drive market sentiment and as such the Pound is likely to be handicapped, at least to some extent, over the coming months. The UK economy seems to be holding up well at present, with a strong run of economic data supporting Sterling’s recent rise.

However,  this is masking a deep concern amongst investors as to how we are actually going to facilitate our exit from the EU and with no information yet provided by UK Prime Minister Theresa May, investors are currently shooting in the dark when it comes to predicting how the UK economy will react in months and even years to come. A report yesterday alluded to any trade deals post Brexit taking up to 10 years to negotiate and these are not exactly ideal economic conditions to support a sustainable rise for Sterling.

The UK economy remains fragile and whilst the Pound has clearly found a foothold in the market, in particular against the EUR, I’m not convinced that the current trend will continue at any great pace.

GBP/EUR rates remain marooned under 1.20, with the single currency finding a lot of protection around this key resistance level and with GBP/USD rates back under, we are hardly out of the woods yet. The USD has been well supported and this week’s interest rate hike by the US FED will only help to solidify it’s potions and with the High Court ruling surrounding the triggering of Article 50 still clouding investors decision making, I would not be prepared to gamble on the current market.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency requirement and are concerned about the recent market volatility, then we can help guide you through these turbulent times, by providing assistance with any currency transfers that you may require. Our award winning exchange rates and market insight are available to all, so please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk if you have any currency related queries.

 

Pound forecast ahead of mortgage approvals – last month saw weakness

Good morning readers and I hope you had a great weekend?

The Pound faces an intreresting morning post 09:30am as we see mortgage approvals data released for the U.K.

Last month this release came out much worse than expected and led to the Pound sliding accross the board so be sure to check back here later on this morning to see exactly what happened and why…

My personal opinion is that I would not be surprised to see the figure slightly better than expected as last month had been a shock and they are predicitng a further drop on this occasion however as always, anything can happen!

Sterling exchange rates – Stable against Euro, rising against Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar! (Daniel Wright)

Pound Continues to Benefit from Election Optimism

Sterling exchange rates have remained fairly stable against the Euro over the course of this week, despite news from Greece and the QE program introduced by the ECB (European Central Bank) last Thursday. Many had expected the Euro to continue to fall but as ever the Euro has managed to just about stand firm following an initial sell off.

The Pound has had a fairly positive few days against most other major currencies gaining some ground back against the Swiss Franc most notably after a fairly dramatic few weeks.

We have very little left to come out in terms of economic data for the U.K for the rest of the week however you should be wary of tonight’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision over in America as it may alter global attitude to risk and could have an effect on all major currencies so it really is one to watch out for.

Also, Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney shall be speaking just before this and although no bombshells are expected this could lead to market volatility this evening.

If you are looking to carry out a currency exchange and you want to not only achieve a better exchange rate than your current supplier but also an award winning personal service then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to call or email you back.

Sterling spikes against most majors – A good week for the Pound but will it continue?

Sterling spiked against all major currencies in trading yesterday afternoon, hitting the highest point since June 2017 against the Euro and offering those looking to buy foreign currency in the near future a fantastic opportunity.

The Pound has been on a slow rise this year and yesterday’s further boost shows once again that confidence in the U.K economy and indeed the Pound, is rising, but we do still need to be cautious that it would only take one bad piece of economic or Brexit news to stop it in its tracks.

For those who are regular followers of our website you will more than likely be aware that these spikes in the market do not seem to stick around for long – well they certainly haven’t since the EU Referendum anyway!

Sterling has remained fairly steady throughout the course of the trading day, if anything losing a little ground which is more than likely due to profit taking following the recent spike we have seen.

next week we have a lot of economic data out for the U.K including unemployment, average earnings, inflation and retail sales data all due out between Tuesday and Thursday. Depending on how good or bad this data is, Sterling may continue its charge or this could see the end of the spike we have seen recently.

I personally still feel that Sterling is undervalued against most major currencies and that there is plenty of room for the Pound to climb higher assuming there are no blips with brexit talks and the proposed interest rate hike still goes ahead in May.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving buying foreign currency with the Pound or selling foreign currency back and buying Pounds then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can get in touch with me by emailing me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help you. We offer highly competitive exchange rates along with help on timing your transaction and would like to think our customer service is way above and beyond elsewhere. I look forward to speaking with you.

Could we have another Referendum?

Pound to US Dollar forecast Sterling continues to slide against the USD will GBP continue to fall?

Well well politicians are a right bunch aren’t they. Just as the UK economy was recovering following the worst financial crisis in living memory we have had the politicians calling this Referendum which has of course knocked confidence and no leaves us with plenty of uncertainty up ahead. It is far to early to be calling Brexit good or bad since we just don’t know what it is at present. For now the UK economy is ticking along nicely, it is growing, people have jobs and they are confident to be spending their hard earned cash as it has been a lovely summer. As I have repeatedly said however we cannot (unfortunately) rely on the weather to support the economy, still with the Olympic glory still fresh in everyone’s minds let us keep positive.

On the subject of Referendums we might yet have another one! Owen Smith the prospective Labour candidate has stated he will be looking to call another Referendum before invoking Article 50, putting the new deal to the test of a public vote. Owen Smith the potential future Labour leader has made this call as part of his campaign to be the new Labour leader. So far this is not wholly likely but the prospect remains.

If you have a transfer involving the pound the uncertainty is set to continue for many months and maybe years, making some plans in such uncertain times seems to me a very sensible option. To discuss further your options and the market please contact me Jonathan Watson on the form below or email me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

[contact-form][contact-field label=’Name’ type=’name’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Email’ type=’email’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Number’ type=’text’ required=’1’/][/contact-form]

Where next for the pound?

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

Rates unexpectedly spiked up after the election but have started to fall particularly in response to the Bank of England cutting growth forecasts last week. On the sterling side the big news this week is another Bank of England report due on Wednesday, if it is anything like the news they released last week it is not looking like it would be good news for sterling! Other important news for the UK is Retail Sales figures this week but I think generally expecting the pound is going to fall this week as the feel good factor from the election wears out.

Making plans when you need to move large sums of money internationally is always sensible. My name is Jonathan and in my work as a specialist currency broker I am here to assist in the planning and execution of any international for payments for say an overseas property or business. One of the worst things to do when making international payments is to use your bank, they won’t give you the best price and the transfer time can be more lengthly than using a currency broker like ourselves.

For more information on our services please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

The week ahead for the Pound – A lot to cram in this week before a well deserved break! Economic data out this week and what may happen

Opinion Poll Data Gives Pound a Boost

Well we do indeed have a lot to cram in this week before a long weekend and what may even be a white Easter here in the U.K the way things are going.

After last weeks pasty and petrol combo that grabbed the headlines, this week should bring a slightly more interesting and relevant amount of news as there is a lot of economic data out accross the globe.

Today – GBP EUR AUD

Already this morning we have seen manufacturing data for Germany come out worse than expected and for the U.K data has indeed been better than expected, leading to another good start to the week for the Pound against most major curencies.

Shortly we will see the release of the European unemployment figures at 10:00am and i’m fairly sure that this won’t be news to celebrate for the Euro once again.

Overnight we see the Reserve Bank of Australia release their interest decision and it has been suspected a rate cut could be in order some time soon over there, should we see this then you may find the AUD weaken once again (an interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned as it makes it less attractive to investors). Should you have a transfer either buying or selling AUD then a limit or stop loss order may be sensible to protect yourself overnight, email me djw@currencies.co.uk for more details on this option.

Tuesday – GBP EUR

European GDP figures are out tomorrow morning and contraction is on the cards, this may again lead to Euro weakness in early morning trading however be aware that this is expected and the markets do move on expecatations as well as facts so if this release isn’t as bad as expected the Euro may pull some ground back.

Wednesday GBP EUR AUD

Australia release trade balance figures very early on Wednesday morning, this is a measure of imports and exports and should show us just how well Australia is still riding the Chinese wave.

For Euro followers the ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision is out followed by a press conference in mid afternoon. Quite often the rate decision doesn’t throw too much into the mix however the press conference follwing it genrerally leads to Euro volatility depending on what head of the ECB Mario Draghi  has to say about how he plans to tackle the current crisis.

Thursday – GBP CHF CAD USD

Before trading lines open those with an interest in the Swiss Franc may see some movement as CPI (Consumer Price Index) is released, this is inflationary data however I highly doubt it is going to move the marjkets too much, the GBP-CHF rate has been fairly static to say the least of late as investors wait and see just what the Swiss National Bank will pull out of their locker next.

Industrial and Manufacturing production is next on Thursday morning for the U.K and following a fairly positive release this morning I would not be surprised to see this lead to a minor spike again for the Pound.

Heads turn to Canada at 11:00am as the Canadian unemployment rate is released, expectations are for it to stay at 7.4%  (much better than the 23% in Spain however) any change to expectations could lead to a volatile end to the week for the Pound.

The USD finally gets a go on Thursday lunchtime at the end of what is quite a quiet week for the Dollar as jobless Claims data is out (similar to unemployment and may give an indication to how Non Farm Payrolls will come out next)

Finally to round off the week the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) release their GDP estimate for the U.K – GDP is in no doubt in my mind going to be the big talking point this month (If figures from quarter 1 for the U.K are negative we are back in a recession officially) and they are expected to predict a growth of 0.1% – Any change to this could lead to a mad end to the week and the it is going to be so tight as to whether the official figure at the end of the month is positive or negative that the Pound will no doubt be extremely jittery this month.

I personally feel the Pound may have another positive week, if you have an upcoming transaction to make either this week or in the coming months then feel free to contact me directly by emailing me djw@currencies.co.uk – The company I work for have won numerous awards for both exchange rates and customer service and if you find my site here a valuable read then having me as your personal broker should come in extremely handy too. I look forward to speaking with you.

A quiet day for the Pound tomorrow – Euro and Canadian Dollar in focus (Daniel Wright)

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

We have very little due out from the U.K tomorrow in terms of economic data with perhaps Public Sector Net borrowing figures the main data for the markets to feed off of which is out at 09:30am.

For those with an interest in Sterling/Euro exchange rates you may wish to take a look at the markets fairly early on as we have head of the ECB (European Central Bank) Mario Draghi speaking at 08:00am and this may lead to early morning volatility depending on what he actually says.

Later on in the day we have Canadian inflation figures and with expectations for a minor drop towards 2% year on year this may not have the biggest impact on Canadian Dollar exchange rates unless we see a surprise figure.

All in all, unless Draghi drops a bombshell we may be set for a fairly quiet day on the currency markets tomorrow but always be aware it is always these sort of days that tend to throw up a surprise or two. Always keep an eye on rates on a Friday afternoon too as sometimes large positions can be netted off leading to a sharp and rapid exchange rate movement without any prior warning.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out either soon or at some point in the future then we can help you with this here at Pound Sterling Forecast.

All you need to do in order to find out about our services and to get a free, no obligation quote then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Recent Posts