UK ‘Super Thursday’ was not so super, and the upcoming week ahead. (Dayle Littlejohn)

It was another poor week for sterling exchange rates due to ‘Super’ Thursday’s data releases. Super Thursday is when the Bank of England releases their latest Interest Rate decision, Minutes and Inflation report. Due to the data releases GBPEUR dropped 2 1/2 cents and GBPUSD 1 1/2 cents. 

As for the interest rate decision, the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep interest rates at historic lows of 0.5%. This was the first time since August 2015. It now appears the first hike will not occur until at least next year and interest rates will not rise above 1% until 2019.

The Bank of England minutes suggested that the UK economy had slowed slightly more than expected and also exclaimed an increase in population and changes in taxes meant that the populations wage growth had become weaker than anticipated and would not increase as expected. The bank had predicted last autumn that wage growth would rise at 3.75%, however this was cut to 3%.

It also appeared to be doom and gloom for the inflation report. Governor Mark Carney exclaimed the constant dropping in oil prices is not helping the problem and went on to suggest inflation will remain at worrying lows for the time being. However the Governor did try and lighten the mood by predicting the target 2% inflation level would be hit within a couple of years.

It possibly could be another tricky week for sterling exchange rates. Tuesday we have UK trade numbers. As Europe is the UK’s largest trade partner, I believe GBPEUR was overvalued throughout December therefore trade numbers could suffer. I expect sterling to lost ground across the board Tuesday morning. Later in the week on Thursday the NIESR GDP estimate is to be released. With the Bank of England painted such a bleak picture I wouldn’t be surprised to see the NIESR follow suit.

The start of 2016 has just shown that the UK’s economic recovery is far from complete and with the BOE’s negative commentary and a possible upcoming referendum (possibly as early as June) I expect this year is going to be testing for the pound. If you have to buy a foreign currency this year, now is the time to start creating a strategy to make it as cheap as possible and this is where I can help.

It’s important when trading currency you analyse both of the currencies in question. If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make this week, month or year I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD etc) and your individual requirement (buying a property abroad, paying a company invoice) and I will personally respond to you with my forecast and the process of using our company.

Quite simply we can give you economic information to help you time your transfer and can also offer you a better exchange rate than what you would receive with your bank and other brokerages. This can be anywhere between 1-5%. My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call me Monday morning on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you would simply like a comparison against your provider email me with the exact figures, time scales and the best number to contact you on and I will call you with our live buying price. This will take 2 minutes and could save you thousands! 

A quiet week of data for Sterling exchange rates – Why not use this week to revise who you use for foreign currency

Much like every household bill it always pays to check up on the company you are using from time to  time, and this is the same when using a foreign currency brokerage.

Many have now shifted clients to their online platforms which can result in lower exchange rates, some currency brokers out there may take advantage of your loyalty, we have had clients get in touch with us that have been using other brokers for years but have found the more comfortable they have got with them the more their rates have tended to slip.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we do not only offer up to date, interesting market information and opinions but all the writers on this site also work for one of the largest currency brokerages in the U.K. We can help people in most locations around the world move money from one bank account to another, at an extremely competitive price quickly, efficiently and with the very highest levels of customer service too.

We aim to help clients tailor a game plan for their purchases and go that extra mile for clients in this current day and age where many companies just treat you as a number.

If for example you are buying or selling an overseas property, the timing of when you book out your rate can make the difference of thousands of pounds, and we aim to help give you all the information you need to make the right decision, along with the very best rate when you have decided you would like to book out your currency .

If you are in the position where you may need our services in the coming days, weeks or months then it is really simple to get in touch to obtain more information or a free quote. You can email me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to assist you going forward. I have worked at this company for over 10 years now and would be glad to add you to my current client list.

 

Elections do lead to Euro weakness as predicted before the weekend – Euro troubles to spiral now?

US/China trade war escalates

Both France and Greece are the talking point this morning following election results that may now weigh heavilly on the Euro in the coming weeks and months.

France’s new socialist Presidente Francois Hollande and his anti austerity agenda may now lead to huge disruption for progress in this European debt crisis as he appears to be against Angela Merkel and previous President Sarkozy’s measures and this may cause political troubles throughout Europe. political instability is one of the main factors that can effect a currency and it would not surprise me to see the Euro continue to struggle (not crash but struggle).

This will cause jitters for the ‘riskier’ currencies such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand and may lead to further weakness for these particular currencies this week. once again actual economic data appears to be in the background and political problems are not only front page news on currency websites but front page news accross the world.

I can see this really causing big problems (not quite world war three) but not a million miles away. If you are selling a property in Europe and are worried about rate movements then perhaps you are right, I still somehow have clients holding off and waiting for rates to improve and if you look at the facts and figures then it would not surprise me to see rates stay like this or get worse for a period of time.

If you are concerned about the current market conditions and want to have an experienced and friendly currency broker on your side throughout this crisis then feel free to contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and i will be more than happy to assist you in timing (however I cannot directly advise) and getting  you the best rate when you do book out your currency. I reguarly better clients rates by enough to make it worthwhile changing over and will be happy to add you to my ever growing list of clients.

Pound reaction to Manchester terror attack (Dayle Littlejohn)

The pound has had a relatively stable day following the tragedy that occurred over night in Manchester Arena. Past history tells us the currency of the country under attack normally comes under pressure and devalues. We saw this occur early this morning however the pound has clawed back the losses this afternoon. 22 people have now been killed with 59 injured. Here at Poundsterlingforecast our thoughts and prayers go out to all of the friends, family and people that have been affected.

In recent weeks the pound has come under pressure due to a flurry of worrying economic data releases. Inflation is rising which you would think is good news however wage growth numbers are falling. With an election on the horizon and Brexit negotiations looming its very unlikely the Bank of England will intervene.

With the polls suggesting a Conservative victory is on the horizon many economists are predicting a small spike in the value of the pound after June 8th and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this materialise. However Brexit negotiations will start thereafter and with the divorce settlement at the top of the agenda it will be interesting to see which party backs down from their bold pledges. EU officials are suggesting the UK will need to pay €100bn where as Brexit Secretary David Davis has warned Brussels that Britain will walk away if the EU demands €100bn.

For the benefit of the pound, I am hopeful that UK and EU officials can come to an agreement however if this doesn’t occur I worry for any person purchasing a foreign currency in the future. I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPEUR exchange rates fall below 1.10!

The currency company I work for enables me to buy and sell pounds at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. If you are buying or selling pounds this year feel free to send me the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk.

Economic reality sets in for the pound…

Well it didn’t take more than a week for the economic reality of the UK and sterling to be realised. The euphoria from the Conservative victory has passed as the Bank of England and Mark Carney revised down UK growth forecasts for next year. The prospects of raising interest rates in the UK look to be set out further and further as economic growth falls along with inflation. With the UK economy confirmed to have only grown 0.3% in the first quarter of this year in the week leading up to the election expectations for sterling to carry on rising look very much misplaced.

Markets unfortunately have very short memories and often overreact to an initial move in one direction with a small kick back as investors take profits. This was definitely seen today as GBPEUR went from 1.4030 this morning to 1.3846 this afternoon. Not good news for all of those Euro buyers hanging on for 1.40!

Economic reality has today set in for sterling and anyone buying a foreign currency who was pleased with positive GBP movers following the unexpected election result, might want to cash in now before it drops further in the future.

For a detailed analysis of your situation and just what to expect when buying or selling the pound please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling reaches new highs – when to buy the euro – FX news – STEVE EAKINS

GBPEUR rates have hit fresh highs this week already as we run towards the end of the month. Levels have traded over 1.20 as a further host of UK data outperformed including house prices and manufacturing figures which were the highest seen in a prolonged period of time.  Many had thought that following the good data sets we saw through November, Decembers data would miss the mark and not match them creating weakness and a correction in Sterling’s price.  However the first lot of data seen in December has already missed that and created this higher levels.

It again goes to show the contrast between the UK and Europe’s financial position and forecasts.  The single currency has been struggling recently with even the central banks moving to try and accelerate any form of grown.  Unemployment is still climbing in the troubled states, Greece continues in a recession that has lasted over 5 years and even some of their “better” performing countries have recently had their credit rating downgraded.  This has helped facilitate this current high level to buy the single currency which is up towards a 11 month high, up almost 6% since August. This difference is the equivalent of a £8,000 saving on a €150,000 purchase.

So do I buy now?

My view is that the trend does seem to be in the favour of Euro buyers, or in fact anyone selling the Pound current so rates may improve.  However we also have to equally respect the high that we are at now.  Depending on the amount you are moving and the timeframe you have remember that you don’t have to trade all at one point in time.  I would be looking to limit my exposure by trading a proposition at the moment to take advantage of these high.

This week data to watch includes European GDP figures tomorrow and interest rate decisions by the central banks both side of the channel on Thursday.  Both have the potential to move rates significantly if there is any surprises. I personally don’t expect any policy change due to it being December, central banks have been against change historically this month due to the shut down over the festive period.

If you are in the position considering a currency exchange and have found this website useful, why not get in contact? All the authors work for one of the leading currency brokers in the UK and will give you access to award winning exchange rates that could save you thousands against your current provider; whether that be a bank or another broker.  It is a 5 minute conversation that could save you months’ worth of savings. Contact the author – STEVE EAKINS – directly via his email at hse@currencies.co.uk or by calling the number found at the top of the page or the Freephone number 0800-328-5884.
View Steve Eakins's profile on LinkedIn

Big week ahead with key interest rate decisions in the UK and Euro zone.

Over the last few weeks Sterling/Euro has been under continued pressure with the main rate falling from 1.1880 to a low of 1.1640
then rebounding over the last week to just above 1.17. There have been numerous factors that have caused the swing in the rate from a drop in UK inflation to members of the Bank of England voting for QE.

Looking forward to this Thursday the Bank of England will be releasing the interest rate decision for June. This is the last decision that Governor Mervyn King will be involved in. The main rate of interest will more than likely be held at the current all-time low of 0.5%. What could dent the pound is the QE decision. After recent drops in sterling have been related to 3 members voting for further monetary easing it is understandable to expect a re-launch of this on Thursday.  Should this occur we could see sterling take a tumble. Many analysts are predicting that when the new Governor of the BoE comes in to power in July that his stance will be to keep the pound as weak as possible to entice overseas investment into the UK. This is what we believe they feel will get the UK economy moving in the right direction.

Looking into the Eurozone on Thursday they have their rate decision plus their GDP figures for the region. The glimmer of hope will be if the Eurozone cut rates again but this may be looked at over the coming months. It seems the rate has been range bound of late between 1.16 to 1.19 and I can’t really see the next 2 weeks being any different.

Where all of the above is good if you are looking at repatriating funds to the UK if you require buying Euros or Dollars over the coming weeks or months I would recommend buying your currency when any spike in the market occurs as not to take too big a risk with your funds. If you do have a need to buy or sell any of the majors I can explain the options that are available to
you and how we can help you beat the banks by achieving significantly better levels to help you achieve more for less. If you have an enquiry that you would like to make with me to see if we can offer you a better rate than your bank then please email me at bma@currencies.co.uk

Ben Amrany

Sterling exchange rates improving as markets await expected rate hike, where to next for the Pound? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have opened up this morning with few exceptions, as financial markets await an interest rate hike from the Bank of England later this week.

Recent polls have suggested that there is over an 80% chance of an interest rate hike this week, and previously BoE governor Mark Carney has alluded to the move along with other members of the BoE’s monetary policy committee.

A common term within the financial markets that you may of heard of recently is ‘priced in’. Many economists believe the hike from the BoE has been priced in which is why Sterling has climbed, and I have to agree.

In terms of Sterling’s value I’m not expecting to see the Pound climb by much value at all if the rate change goes ahead, but I do think that if it doesn’t go ahead which is looking unlikely now, there could be a big downward move for the Pound across the board of major currency pairs.

The decision will take place on Thursday at 12pm and as soon as the decision has been made their will be the BoE Minutes, which is a full account of the policy decision. I think there could be a lot of movement around that time so if you’re planning on making a currency exchange involving the Pound, it’s worth getting in touch to discuss it and plan around this event.

There are also other news releases this week that could impact Sterling exchange rates, as the data will cover how the UK economy is performing across different sectors.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

With the miserable weather in the U.K those buying property in Europe still have something to smile about – Pound Euro rates are still creeping up!

With the U.K recording the wettest April, June and April – June on record many of my U.K based clients have not had a lot to celebrate.

The good news for those in the process of looking to buy overseas, carrying out building work overseas or should your company import from Europe then at last after a couple of years of doom and gloom there has been some movement back in the right direction.

The big question on the lips of everybody is generally ‘will it continue?’ Of course if I knew I wouldn’t be writing this post, I would be gathering together every penny I could find to speculate on it in order to make my millions 🙂

Personally I feel that there is a little more room for improvement unless the Bank of England become party poopers tomorrow morning at 09:30am when we see the release of the BOE minutes from the last interest rate decision. Any mention of further QE, an interest rate cut or anything negative may turn this around for a while however not for too long.

With the issues in Spain, Italy, Greece, Ireland and Portugal to name a few I feel the Euro crisis may actually take years and years to resolve and that general feeling is now weighing heavlly on the value of the Euro. If you have Euros to sell from the proceeds of a property sale it may be prudent to look at getting something booked fairly rapidly just in case this trend does continue. If you have sold abroad and you are awaiting completion of the sale yet have access to 10% of the total sale price either in Euros or another currency then you can lock into an exchange rate with me on a forward contract – Feel free to email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk to see how I can help.

If you would like to be kept up to date with market movements or have a currency transfer to carry out then i’m confident I can beat the rate you are getting from your bank or current broker, even if you already feel you are getting a good deal – There is generally always room for improvement on these markets. Why not test me? You can email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to assist you both in terms of great rates and customer service. I look forward to speaking with you.

I

Has this sterling rally run out of steam?

tariffs and jobs data to impact Pound to Dollar rates

The pound has enjoyed some recent improvements notably against the Euro and dollar. Up almost 5 cents against both currencies from the lows of January and 2017 financial markets are eagerly awaiting fresh developments to determine the next direction on both pairs. Personally whilst there are various events which independently could influence the GBPEUR and GBPUSD rate emanating from overseas I think it is only a matter of time before fresh news sees the pound come unstuck and these recent gains eroded. For any clients looking to make a currency transfer involving the pound (or any other currency) there are some important events just around the corner which will effect the value of your currency transfer.

I expect sterling to perform better against the Euro only because I feel the Euro will weaken. I predict a range of 1.14-1.20 in the coming weeks. As early as tomorrow morning at 09.30 am there is data which could trigger sterling weakness. The latest Retail Sales figures will I feel trigger some losses for sterling as we are now beginning to see the impact of a falling pound and rising Inflation impact consumer’s back pockets. I also feel uncertainty around the time Theresa May triggers Article 50 will lead to uncertainty for the pound as the markets realises there is no going back for the UK and the vote.

Working in favour of clients buying Euros is uncertainty over the Greek debt issues and political uncertainty stemming from European elections. I would suggest a top end of 1.20 on GBPEUR is likely, clients selling Euros to buy the pound might wish to strongly consider taking advantage of any improvements in their rate. If you are buying or selling Euros with pounds and would like some assistance to get a better rate please contact me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

If you have US dollars to buy or sell then making sense of the latest Trump tweets could prove useful. Donald Trump has stated the US dollar is ‘killing’ the American economy and whilst he is also in favour of a higher interest rate which would strengthen the greenback, Trump’s unpredictable ways could weaken the dollar. Overall I expect the pound to continue to struggle against the US dollar so the market should favour US dollar sellers. Rate of 1.20 should be seen again I feel in the coming weeks as uncertainty over Brexit becomes apparent once again.

GBPAUD is an interesting one, the pound is really struggling against the Aussie as the Australian economy goes from strength to strength alongside the Chinese dragon. The Australian economy has enjoyed a recession free period of almost 30 years which coupled with a high interest rate puts it firmly at odds with the UK and the pound. Rates below 1.60 could once again become a reality, unfortunately for clients moving to Australia or sending money there your currency purchase should remain expensive and could become more so.

We are currently in a reasonably quiet period as investors await further news on the Brexit. With Article 50 likely to be triggered anytime in the next few weeks now is the right time to be making some plans for your currency transfer. If you would like some added information and forecasts on the market I would be delighted to hear from you and offer some insight and information to help you make an informed choice regarding your currency exchange.

Please email me Jonathan Watson at jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

Thank you for reading and I hope to hear from you soon.

 

Recent Posts